City of San Diego Water Demand Forecast - Building an ...· City of San Diego Water Demand Forecast

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  • CityofSanDiegoWaterDemandForecast

    PublicUtilitiesDepartment

    EngineeringProgramManagementDivision

    FeryalMoshavegh,AssociateEngineer

    MichaelVoss,AssistantEngineer

    May25,2010

    PresentationtoScrippsInstituteofOceanography

  • 2

    CityofSanDiego

    Population1.3millionServiceAreacovers403squaremiles

  • SanDiegosWaterTreatmentPlants

  • #

    #

    8

    52 678055

    5 805

    54

    94125

    163

    15

    905

    TheWaterSystemIncludes:

    54

    94

    15

    905

    805

    8

    163

    125

    805

    52 67

    28PotableWaterReservoirs

    47PotableWaterPumpStations

    #

    #

    505MilesofTransmissionPipelines

    3,000MilesofDistributionPipelines

    #

    #

    #

    #

    Miramar WaterTreatment Plant

    134PressureZones

  • PotableWaterModelThedetailedWaterModelanalyzestheentirewaterdistributionsystem:

    6,000majorvalves 280,000customer

    meterconnections 667pressure

    regulators InterfacewithGIS,CIS

    andSCADAsystems Ongoingcalibration,

    updatesfromSCADAevery15minutes

  • NorthCity&SouthBayRecycledWaterSystem

    TheRecycleWaterModel

    consistsof:

    2ReclamationPlants 94milesofpipelines 404customermeter

    connections

    6PumpStations 5Reservoirs 8Pressurezones InterfacewithGIS,

    CIS&SCADA

  • RawWaterModelTheRawWaterModel

    consistsof: 40milesof

    Pipelines

    2PumpStations(Lakeside&ElMonte)

    3Reservoirs(Murray,ElCapitan,andSanVicente)

    San Vicente Reservoir

    El Capitan Reservoir

    Lakeside PS

    Lake Murray

    CWA 1st Aqueduct connection

  • TheYear2030MasterPlanModel

    Modelisbasedonlatest

    waterdemandprojection

    report.Itincludes: Futuregrowth(latestSANDAGreleasepopulation&landuse

    Water&SewerRate Conservationparameters

    GlobalWarmingeffects

  • Howarethemodelsused?

    MasterPlanning Operationsupport,systemoptimization,shutdown&backupstudies

    Newdevelopment,castironreplacementgroupjobstudies

    Pressurezonestudies&fireflowanalysis Waterqualityanalysis Watersourcecontribution(tracerstudies) Emergencyplanningandwatersecurityanalysis QualitycontrolcheckofGIS,CISandSCADAdata

  • 10

    DevelopmentofWaterDemandForecasts

  • 11

    DemandForecastReportObjectives

    DemandForecastsareusedto:

    Planforexpansionofsystemcapacity(sourcesofsupply,transmission,treatment).

    Evaluatetheeffectiveness(orwatersavings)ofalternativeconservationmeasures

    Preparecontingencyplansforwatershortagescausedbydroughtorsourcecontamination

    Guidedevelopment(UrbanWaterManagementPlan)

  • DataUsedforWaterDemandForecast SANDAG2050Update,Series12

    Employment(totals&NAICS) SFandMFoccupiedhouseholds SFandMFhousingdensity(computed

    fromacreage)

    Medianhouseholdincome

    Marginalpriceofwater&sewer Weatherdata

    historicalobserved Climatechangescenarios

    HistoricalWaterusedata Customerbillinginformation,premise

    code,andmonth

    Wholesalewateruse PercentNRWfromannualreport

    Conservationsavingsandfutureprograms

  • ModelWeatherVariables

    Weathervariables: Averagemaximumdailytemperature Monthlytotalprecipitation Numberofrainydaysinmonth Oneandtwomonthlageffectsforprecipitationvariables(variesbysector)

    Measuredasdeparturefromnormal(average)weather

  • GlobalClimateChangeData

    ModelsprovidedbyScripps Twoglobalclimatemodelsselected:

    GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory(GFDLCM2)

    NationalCenterforAtmosphericResearchParallelCoupledModel(NCARPCM)

    Dataused: Monthlyaveragemaximumdailytemperature Monthlytotalprecipitation Numberofdaysineachmonthwithprecipitationgreaterthan0.01inches

  • ScrippsDataProcessed

    Dataprovidedfora200x200kmgrid Gridsselectedthatoverlaywithweatherstationdatausedtodevelopdemandforecastmodel

    CDMcalculatedmovingaverageofdatatocapturetrends forecastmodelestimatesdemandin5yearincrementsandsingleyearclimatechangedatanotrepresentativeoftrend

    Datathentransformedtodeparturefromhistoricalaverage

  • ClimateGridsforCityofSanDiegoServiceArea

  • ModeledDemandwithClimateChange

    Calculatedclimatechangedeparturesinweatherinputintoforecastmodelforfutureyears

    Estimatesaperunituseunderthegivenscenario

    2030demandsunderGFDLCM2conditionscanincreaseby4.5%fromtheaverageweatherscenario

  • ComparisonofHistoricalAverageandScrippsClimateChangeModels

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112

    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

    No.

    Rai

    ny D

    ays

    NCARPCM GFDLCM2 Historical Average

    Number of Rainy Days in Month

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112

    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

    No.

    Rai

    ny D

    ays

    NCARPCM GFDLCM2 Historical Average

    Number of Rainy Days in Month

  • ComparisonofHistoricalAverageandScrippsClimateChangeModels

    -0.5

    0.0

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112

    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

    Pre

    cipi

    tatio

    n

    NCARPCM GFDLCM2 Historical Average

    Monthly Precipitation

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112

    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

    Pre

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    NCARPCM GFDLCM2 Historical Average

    Monthly Precipitation

  • ComparisonofHistoricalAverageandScrippsClimateChangeModels

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112

    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

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    pera

    ture

    NCARPCM GFDLCM2 Historical Average

    Temperature

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112

    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

    Tem

    pera

    ture

    NCARPCM GFDLCM2 Historical Average

    Temperature

  • HistoricalPopulationandWaterDemand

  • ComparisonofDemandunderClimateChangeScenarios(MGD)

  • 23

    QuestionsandComments?

    ContactInformation:FeryalMoshavegh(858)6544241fmoshavegh@sandiego.gov

    MichaelVoss(858)6544246mvoss@sandiego.gov