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Real Estate Market Update/ 2012 FORECAST
Integrated Real Estate Services - San diego
January 31, 2012
Leslie Appleton-Young, Chief Economist
Overview
US and California Economies
California Housing Market
Regional & Local Markets
2011 Annual Market Survey
2012 Housing Market Forecast
CA Buyers & Sellers in Today’s Housing Market
U.S. Economic Outlook
Economy Slowly Gaining Post-Stimulus Momentum
-8%-7%-6%
-5%-4%-3%
-2%-1%
0%1%2%
3%4%5%
6%7%
8%
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
Q3
-10
Q1
-11
Q3
-11
GDP 2010: 2.8% 2011:1.8% 2012: 2.6%
ANNUAL QTRLY
2009 Largest Annual Drop since 1938 (-3.4%)
Performance Targets for National Economy
Current Target
This Year - Projected
Unemployment 6% 9.0%
US GDP 3% or higher 1.8%
Nonfarm Job Growth
3%+ or 400K+/mo
1.0%
CPI 2.5% 3.2%
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
QUARTERLY PERCENT CHANGE
Consumer Spending ReboundingHoliday and Auto Sales
Consumer Spending 2011 Q3: 2.4%
SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1Q
-20
00
1Q
-20
01
1Q
-20
02
1Q
-20
03
1Q
-20
04
1Q
-20
05
1Q
-20
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1Q
-20
07
1Q
-20
08
1Q
-20
09
1Q
-20
10
1Q
-20
11
INDEX, 100=1985
Consumer Confidence: Nov/Dec ReboundIncome Concerns Trump Job Gains
January 2012: 61.1
CA Underwater Mortgages:Reverse Wealth Effect
SOURCE: CoreLogic
Unemployment: Heading Lower U.S. at 3 year low December 2011
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
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CA US
California (11.1%) vs. United States (8.5%)
-1,000,000
-800,000
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
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U.S. Non-farm Job Growth: Gaining!
SOURCE: US Dept of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Month-to-Month Changes
Recession Job Losses: 8.8 millionSince Jan 2010: +2.4 million
Created 1.6 million jobs in 2011
-160000
-140000
-120000
-100000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
Ja
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No
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Ja
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No
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California Non-farm Job Growth
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
Month-to-Month Changes
Recession Job Losses: 1.3 millionSince Jan’10: +282,000
Nonfarm EmploymentSan Diego County, December 2011: Up 2.2% YTY
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Ja
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Ja
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SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
Y-T-Y PERCENT CHANGE
Unemployment RateSan Diego County, December 2011: 8.9%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Ja
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SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
Where are California’s Jobs? Employment Trends:
Construction & Financial Sectors Biggest Losers
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
Industry 2005 Jul-11Year to
Date
Mining and Logging 23,600 27,600 4,000
Construction 905,300 567,300 -338,000
Manufacturing 1,502,600 1,257,600 -245,000
Trade, Transportation & Utilities 2,822,100 2,641,500 -180,600
Information 473,600 455,400 -18,200
Financial Activities 920,300 755,800 -164,500
Professional & Business Services 2,160,700 2,136,200 -24,500
Educational & Health Services 1,593,400 1,837,000 243,600
Leisure & Hospitality 1,475,200 1,531,600 56,400
Other Services 505,500 484,500 -21,000
Government 2,420,200 2,380,200 -40,000
TOTAL 14,802,500 14,074,700 -727,800
CA New Housing Permits2011: 47,015 units, Up 5.0% from 2010
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,0001
98
8
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
Single Family Multi-Family
SOURCE: CBIA
Household Growth: 220,000-250,000/yr
SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation
Classic Liquidity Trap: Consumers DeleveragingLow Rates and Tight CreditFed easing through 2014
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
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FRM
ARM
Federal Funds
US Deficit Highest in Decades2010: 11% of GDP (Revenues – Expenses)
Source: US Treasury, BEA, compiled by C.A.R.Note: Positive = Surplus
Federal Issues – Critical Concerns for the REALTOR Party
Future of Fannie and Freddie? FHA?
Tax Reform on the horizon – Mortgage Interest
Deduction?
QRM (Qualified Residential Mortgage) 20%
Down requirement -- Is the future of the 30 year
mortgage in doubt?
U.S. Economic Outlook
• 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f
US GDP 3.1% 2.7% 2.0% 0.0% -2.6% 2.9% 1.8% 2.6%
Nonfarm Job Growth
1.7% 1.8% 1.1% -0.6% -4.4% -0.7% 1.0% 0.9%
Unemployment 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 5.8% 9.3% 9.6% 9.0% 8.9%
CPI 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 3.8% -0.4% 1.6% 3.2% 2.3%
Real Disposable Income, % Change
1.3% 4.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.9% 1.4% 1.7% 1.5%
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®Forecast Date: January 2012
California Economic Outlook
• 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f
Nonfarm Job Growth
1.8% 1.7% 0.8% -1.3% -6.0% -1.4% 1.5% 2.1%
Unemployment Rate
5.4% 4.9% 5.4% 7.2% 11.4% 12.4% 12.0% 11.2%
Population Growth
1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
Real Disposable Income, % Change
1.3% 3.4% 1.5% 0.1% -2.2% 1.6% 1.5% 2.0%
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
Forecast Date: January 2012
California Housing Market
Sales Hit Bottom 4 Years Ago Median Price 2011 = 2002
“Lost Decade” UNITS/MEDIAN PRICE $
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
Sales of Existing Detached Homes Median Price
-61% -25%
-44%
Sales of Existing Detached Homes and Pacific West Consumer Confidence• California, December 2011 Sales: 520,940 Units, Up 1.1% YTD, Up 0.1% YTY
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
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120
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Sales Consumer Confidence INDEXUNITS
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®; The Conference Board
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
INDEX, 100 = 03/16/90
Mortgage Loan Applications for PurchaseJanuary 20, 2012: 184.8
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
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Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
Mortgage Applications/ Total Purchase Loans
(Weekly % Chg.)
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Ja
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P: May-07$594,530
T: Feb-09$245,230
-59% frompeak
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000Ja
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Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
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Jan
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Jan
-11
Statewide Median Price Stalled California, December 2011: $285,920, Down 6.2% YTY
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
Median Prices Bottomed Almost 3 Years AgoTrough vs. Current Price – December 2011
Southern California
RegionTrough Month
Trough Price
Dec-11 Median
% Chg From Trough
San Bernardino County May-09 $120,410 $128,450 6.7%
Ventura Couty Feb-09 $359,630 $391,060 8.7%
Orange County Jan-09 $442,170 $484,630 9.6%
San Diego County Mar-09 $326,830 $359,930 10.1%
Palm Springs/Lower Desert Apr-09 $150,140 $165,960 10.5%
Inland Empire Apr-09 $150,860 $172,430 14.3%
CALIFORNIA Feb-09 $245,230 $285,920 16.6%
Southern California Apr-09 $246,063 $286,950 16.6%
Los Angeles Metro Apr-09 $227,370 $265,830 16.9%
Riverside County Apr-09 $171,480 $203,650 18.8%
Los Angeles County May-09 $248,850 $306,950 23.3%
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
Housing Affordability: Historic High’sCalifornia Vs. U.S.
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
75%
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
09
US - CA CA US
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
% OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY
QTRLYMonthly
Unsold Inventory IndexCalifornia, December 2011: 4.2 Months
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
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SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
MONTHS
Tight Supply of Inventory for REO Sales
0123456789
Equity Sales REO Sales Short Sales
6.7
2.7
8.9
2011Unsold Inventory Index (Months)
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
Price Range (Thousand) Dec-10 Nov-11 Dec-11
$1,000K+ 8.2 9.6 8.3$750-1000K 5.7 7.0 5.9$500-750K 4.7 6.0 4.5$300-500K 4.9 5.3 4.4$0-300K 4.9 4.7 3.9
Higher Price = Higher Inventory Unsold Inventory Index
(Months of Supply)
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
California’s Million-Dollar Home Sales
2252918,621
24,43642,506
50,01054,773
36,99020,595
15,70310,658
13,1018,906
5,3663,762
2,6512,0172,5222,2982,8903,3623,7734,271
2,718
0
10
00
0
20
00
0
30
00
0
40
00
0
50
00
0
60
00
0
19881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
Source: DataQuick Information Systems
Year
Number of Homes
Market Breakdown: Equity v. Distressed Sales
REOs, 24.6%
Short Sales, 22.2%
Other Distressed Sales (Not
Specified), 0.5%
Equity Sales, 52.7%
Dec-11
Share of Distressed Sales to Total Sales
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
REO & Short Sales: Southern California(Percent of Total Sales)
Mortgage Foreclosure & Delinquency RatesCalifornia: Q3-2011
7.6%
3.6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Q1
/74
Q2
/75
Q3
/76
Q4
/77
Q1
/79
Q2
/80
Q3
/81
Q4
/82
Q1
/84
Q2
/85
Q3
/86
Q4
/87
Q1
/89
Q2
/90
Q3
/91
Q4
/92
Q1
/94
Q2
/95
Q3
/96
Q4
/97
Q1
/99
Q2
/00
Q3
/01
Q4
/02
Q1
/04
Q2
/05
Q3
/06
Q4
/07
Q1
/09
Q2
/10
Q3
/11
Delinquency Rate Foreclosure Rate
SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association
Delinquencies: Long Run Average: 4.4%
Foreclosure Rate: Long Run Average: 1.2%
ForeclosuresSan Diego County
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Q1
/89
Q1
/90
Q1
/91
Q1
/92
Q1
/93
Q1
/94
Q1
/95
Q1
/96
Q1
/97
Q1
/98
Q1
/99
Q1
/00
Q1
/01
Q1
/02
Q1
/03
Q1
/04
Q1
/05
Q1
/06
Q1
/07
Q1
/08
Q1
/09
Q1
/10
Q1
/11
SOURCE: Real Estate Research Council
CarlsbadPreforeclosure: 199 • Auction: 212 • Bank Owned: 66
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 01/30/2012.
Del MarPreforeclosure: 13 • Auction: 20 • Bank Owned: 7
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 01/30/2012.
Rancho BernardoPreforeclosure: 87 • Auction: 85 • Bank Owned: 29
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 01/30/2012.
SacramentoPreforeclosure: 2,216 • Auction: 1,905 • Bank Owned: 1,560
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 08/19/11
SacramentoPreforeclosure: 2,216 • Auction: 1,905 • Bank Owned: 1,560
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 08/19/11
SacramentoPreforeclosure: 2,216 • Auction: 1,905 • Bank Owned: 1,560
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 08/19/11
SacramentoPreforeclosure: 2,216 • Auction: 1,905 • Bank Owned: 1,560
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 08/19/11
Local Market Conditions
Carlsbad
Sales of Residential HomesCarlsbad, December 2011: 112 Units Up 6.7% MTM, Down 3.4% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Median Price of Residential HomesCarlsbad, December 2011: $502,500, Down 3.4% MTM, Down 15.2% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
For Sale PropertiesCarlsbad, December 2011: 829 Units, Down 11.8% MTM, Down 9.1% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Months Supply of Inventory Carlsbad, December 2011: 5.7 Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Del Mar
Sales of Residential HomesDel Mar, December 2011: 13 Units
Up 18.2% MTM, Even 0% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Median Price of Residential HomesDel Mar, December 2011: $962,500
Up 23.4% MTM, Down 3.7% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
For Sale PropertiesDel Mar, Dec. 2011: 182 Units
Down 9.5% MTM, Down 29.2% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Months Supply of Inventory Del Mar, December 2011: 9.9 Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Rancho Bernardo
Sales of Residential HomesRancho Bernardo, December 2011: 64 Units
Up 3.2% MTM, Even 0% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Median Price of Residential HomesRancho Bernardo, Dec. 2011: $277,500 Down 21.3% MTM, Down 25.5% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
For Sale PropertiesRancho Bernardo, Dec. 2011: 413 Units
Down 7.01% MTM, Down 13.8% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Months Supply of Inventory Rancho Bernardo, December 2011: 7.0 Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
2011 Annual Housing Market Survey
Equity vs. REO vs. Short Sales
Equity Sales REO Sales Short Sales
Share of Total Sales 58.7% 19.7% 20.2%
Median Home Price $431,000 $240,000 $287,000
Square Footage 1,783 1,500 1,600
Price / SF $250 $112 $175
Sales-to-List Price Ratio 95.9% 98.0% 95.9%
% of Sales With Multiple Offers 35.2% 58.3% 57.5%
Avg. Number of Offers 3.0 3.0 3.6
% of All Cash Sales 25.5% 34.0% 23.3%
Days on MLS 67 50 141
Days in Escrow 35 35 45
Proportion of Sellers Planning to Repurchase
Q. Is the seller planning on purchasing another home?
Reasons Sellers Not Planning to Buy Another Home
Q. Why is the seller not planning to purchase another home?
2.7%
4.7%
4.9%
5.7%
10.9%
11.4%
19.8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Seller is a lender/bank
Seller prefers to have less financial obligation
Poor credit background
Lack of cash for down payment
Out of work/unemployment
Decide to live with family/friends
Waiting for market to bottom
Reasons For SellingAll Home Sellers
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Foreclosure/ShortSale/Default
Change in Family Status
Retirement/Move toRetirement Community
Investment/ TaxConsderations
Desired Better Location
Desired Smaller Home
Changed Jobs
Desired Larger Home
Other
Q. What was the single most important reason for selling/buying the property?
Investments & Second/Vacation Homes
Foreign Buyers
8%
5%6%6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2008 2009 2010 2011
% of Foreign Buyers
Q. Was the buyer a foreign buyer?
California Housing Market Forecast
Forecast Progress Report
2010 Projected October
2010
2010 Actual
2011 Forecast October
2010
2011 Projected
SFH Resales (000s)
492.0 491.5 502.0 491.1
% Change -10.0% -10.1% 2.0% -0.1%Median Price ($000s)
$306.5 $303.1 $312.5 $291.0
% Change 11.5% 10.2% 2.0% -4.0%
Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Forecast Date: September 2011 vs October 2010
California Housing Market Outlook
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f
SFH Resales (000s)
625.0 477.5 346.9 441.8 546.9 491.5 491.1 496.2
% Change 0.03% -23.6% -27.3% 27.3% 23.8% -10.1% -0.1% 1.0%
Median Price ($000s)
$522.7 $556.4 $560.3 $348.5 $275.0 $303.1 $291.0 $296.0
% Change 16.0% 6.5% 0.7% -37.8% -21.1% 10.2% -4.0% 1.7%
30-Yr FRM 5.9% 6.4% 6.3% 6.0% 5.1% 4.7% 4.5% 4.7%
1-Yr ARM 4.5% 5.5% 5.6% 5.2% 4.7% 3.5% 3.0% 3.1%
Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Forecast Date: September 2011
Buyers in Today’s Market: 2011 Survey of California
Home Buyers
Age
Q. What is your age?
Median Age: 35
Buyers Are Getting Younger
Buyers Are Highly Educated
7%
20%
14%47%
12%
High school
Some college
Vocation/technical school
College graduate
Post graduate
Q. What is the highest level of education you have completed?
Percentage of First-time Buyers Remains High
Q. Was this your first home purchase?
43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
The Buying Experience
Considered buying for over 4 months & investigated homes/neighborhoods for 2.5 months, on average, before contacting an agent
Viewed 12 homes in 8 weeks with agent 76% didn’t close escrow on time 49% owned previous home Motivated by price decreases & mortgage interest and
property tax deductions 80% found home through agent
Living Arrangement Before Purchase
Q. What was your living arrangement immediately before your recent home purchase?
Buyers Spend More Time Considering Purchases Before Contacting Agent
Q. How many weeks did you consider buying a home before contacting a real estate agent?
Time Spent Less Time Investigating Options Before Contacting Agent
Q. How many weeks did you spend investigating homes and neighborhoods before contacting a real estate agent?
Buyers Viewed Fewer Homes With Agent
Q. About how many different homes did you preview and visit with him/her [agent] prior to your purchase?
* Reflects only buyers who used an agent
What Got Buyers Off the Fence?
Q. What got you off the fence and motivated you to buy your home when you did?
How Buyers Found Home: 80% Agent- 2011 -
Q. How did you find the home your purcahsed?
How Buyers Found Home: 90% Agent- 2007 -
Q. How did you find the home your purcahsed?
Top 10 Websites Used
Real estate company website
Real estate agent websiteQ. Which websites did you use as part of your home buying process?
Most Useful Websites
Real estate company website
Real estate agent website
Q. What was the most useful website that you visited during your home buying process?
Quick Facts
92% of buyers obtained financing, but 72% found it difficult
42% of buyers put 20% down
Over 84% obtained a 30-year, fixed rate loan
Q. For which of the following did you use the internet as a part of your home buying process?
Buyers Continue to HaveDifficulties Obtaining Financing
Q. Please rate how easy of difficult it was to obtain financing on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being very easy and 10 being very difficult.
2009: Mean = 8.1 Median = 9
2010: Mean = 8.5, Median = 9
2011: Mean = 8.0, Median = 9
Quick Facts About Homebuyers
94% of buyers used an agent 58% of buyers found their agent online 56% of buyers interviewed at least 2 agents 51% Googled their agent 93% are receptive to receiving information via social media 54% would work with same agent again 80% would find agent ratings beneficial
# of Agents Interviewed
144%
236%
312%
819%
Q. How many agents did you interview prior to selecting the agent you used in your recent home purchase?
Why Buyers Chose their Agent
1. Most responsive (28%)2. Worked with agent before (18%)3. First to respond (17%)4. Most aggressive (16%)5. Most knowledgeable (6%)
Q. What was the single most important reason for selecting the agent that you used in your recent home purchase?
Agent Response Time Is Very Important- Rating on 1 to 5 Scale -
Q. Please rate the importance of the agent’s response time in the decision on your final selection on a scale of one to five, with five being extremely important and one being not at all important.
Agents Need to Improve Response Time- Rating on 1 to 5 Scale -
Q. Did your real estate agent meet your expectations on response time? Please rate your agent’s response time on a scale of one to five, with five being agent exceedingly surpassed expectations and one being agent fell way below expectations.
Q. What was the typical response time you expected from your agent to return any form of communication to you?
Over 1/3 of Buyers ExpectInstant Response from Agent
- Up 50% in Recent Years -
Closing Thoughts
Direction of Home Prices: Sellers Skeptical; Buyers Hopeful
Q: Do you think home prices in your neighborhood will go up, down or stay flat in one year, five years and 10 years?
Real Estate: It’s Time To Buy Again
SOURCE: “Real estate: It’s time to buy again” Fortune Magazine’s 3/28/11 article written by Shawn Tully
“Forget stocks. Don't bet on gold. After four years of plunging home prices, the most attractive asset
class in America is housing.”
8 in 10 Americans Agree Buying a Home is the Best Investment One Can Make
SOURCE: Pew Research Center’s “Home Sweet Home. Still. Five Years After the Bubble Burst”
8 in 10 Renters Would Like to Buy in the Future
“…renters are hardly immune to the allure of homeownership, even in the face of the five-year decline in prices. Asked if they rent out of choice or because they cannot afford
to buy a home, just 24% say they rent out of choice.”
SOURCE: Pew Research Center’s “Home Sweet Home. Still. Five Years After the Bubble Burst”
