China-U.S. Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions

History and Forecast

Richard G. Newell

Director, Duke University Energy Initiative and Gendell Professor of Energy and Environmental Economics, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University

Duke-Kunshan Workshop on “China-U.S. Climate Change Action and Cooperation”

September 10, 2015 | Kunshan, China

Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan

Global CO2 emissions: different policy assumptions underlie different projections of world energy-related emissions

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Data source: Historical data from IEA Statistics until 2012. Projections from IEA World Energy Outlook (2014), U.S. EIA International Energy Outlook (2013), ExxonMobil Outlook for Energy (2015) and Shell New Lens Scenarios (2013).

History Projections

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5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

IEA HistoricalIEA Current PoliciesIEA New PoliciesIEA 450

U.S. EIAExxonMobilShell OceansShell Mountains

carbon dioxide emissions(billion metric tonnes)

Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan

Divergent CO2 emissions trajectories between U.S. and China

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Data source: Historical data are from IEA Statistics until 2012. Projections from IEA World Energy Outlook (2014), U.S. EIA International Energy Outlook (2013), ExxonMobil Outlook for Energy (2015).

History Projections

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5

10

15

carb

on d

ioxi

de e

mis

sion

s(b

illio

n m

etric

tonn

es)

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

United States

History Projections

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

China

IEA Historical

IEA Current Policies

IEA New Policies

IEA 450

U.S. EIA

ExxonMobil

Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan 4

U.S. climate target in the INDC• U.S. is the second largest GHG emitter after China, accounting

for 16% of global emissions

• U.S. pledges– Copenhagen: Reduce GHG emissions by 17% below 2005 level by 2020

– INDC: Reduce GHG emissions by 26-28% below 2005 level by 2025

– Consistent with a pathway to 80% or more reduction by 2050

• Measures proposed in INDC to achieve this target– Established domestic laws and regulations (Clean Air Act, Energy Policy Act, Energy

Independence and Security Act, Fuel Economy Standards for certain vehicle types, Clean Power Plan)

– Proposed but unfinalized regulations (including post-2018 heavy-duty vehicle fuel economy standards, more stringent code for buildings and appliances)

– No intention to use international market mechanism to implement 2025 target

Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan 5

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

US historical emissions

6000 Mtin 2005

Carbon dioxide emissions(million metric tonnes) (Mt)

U.S. historical energy-related CO2 emissions and reduction targets

Copenhagen target 17% below 2005

in 2020

INDC target26-28% below 2005 in 2025

Data source: Historical data are from EIA International Statistics. Focused on CO2 only.

Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Carbon dioxide emissions(million metric tonnes)

Total reduction

How can U.S. achieve its reduction target?

Data source: Historical data from U.S. EIA International Statistics. Projection data from Reference Case of U.S. EIA’s AEO2007, 2010, 2012, 2015; CAFE Standards Case of AEO2012; and EIA’s Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (2015)

2020 target-17%

(

2007 EIA Reference CasePre-recession, before

EISA2007 was enacted

2010 EIA Reference CasePost-recession, includes

EISA2007 and CAFE standards for MY2011-2016

2025 target-26%

CAFE standards MY2012-2016~200 Mt

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4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

Carbon Dioxide Emissions(million metric tonnes)

2020target

Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan

How can U.S. achieve its reduction target?

Data source: Historical data from U.S. EIA International Statistics. Projections from Reference Case of EIA’s AEO2007, 2010, 2012, 2015; CAFE Standards Case of AEO2012; and EIA’s Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (2015)

~100 Mt

2007 EIA Reference CasePre-recession, before

EISA2007 was enacted

2010 EIA Reference CasePost-recession, includes

EISA2007 and CAFE standards for MY2011-2016

2012 EIA Reference Case

EIA 2012 CAFE CaseMY 2017-2025

EIA 2015 Reference Case

EIA Clean Power Plan Base Case Scenario

2025 target

Heavy duty vehicle standards 2014-2018~50 Mt

Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan

Transport Efficiency8%

Industrial Ef-ficiency

5%Building Ef-ficiency

5%Grid Efficiency

0.2%

CCS Coal23%

CCS Gas7%

Wind9%

Solar7%

Biomass Power5%

Other Re-newables

0.4%

Nuclear 12%

Electricity0.7%

Total fuel switching in

industry7%

Biofuels9%Reduced Transport Demand

1%

Reduced GDP1%

2050 cost-effective mitigation opportunities in the U.S.

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Data source: AMPERE Project

Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan

Transport Efficiency4%

Industrial Efficiency18%

Building Efficiency6%

Grid Efficiency0.4%

CCS Coal11%

CCS Gas7%

Hydro 2%

Wind8%

Solar7%

Biomass Power3%

Natural Gas4%

Nuclear 12%

Renewables (excl. biofuels)

1%

Total fuel switching in industry

11%

Biofuels1%

Reduced Transport Demand0.3%

Reduced GDP3%

2050 cost-effective mitigation opportunities in China

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Data source: AMPERE Project

Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan

For more information

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Richard Newell

Duke University Energy Initiative

energy.duke.edu

richard.newell@duke.edu

919-681-8663