China / Hong Kong Industry Focus China Property Sector

ed-TH / sa- CS / AH

Spotlight on future land supply

• Solid sales growth momentum sustained with strong

potential to ink another year of record-high sales • Developers poised to meet their 2021 targets • Future land supply and new starts as keys to watch for • Sector top picks: Vanke, COLI, CIFI and Logan Solid performance in 1Q21; strong potential for another year of

record-high residential sales. Residential sales in Mar rose 63%

y-o-y (or 44% vs Mar-19) on the back of a 38% (or 19% vs Mar-

19) increment in residential GFA sold and 19% (or 21% vs Mar-

19) rise in residential ASP, marking another solid month of

physical market performance. We believe the market is well-

poised to post another record-high sales value this year – as it

will likely attain 2020’s level even if the market records a 12.5% y-

o-y decline for the remaining nine months. Developers well on track to achieve their 2021 targets. Presales

growth of 30 listed developers we track on a weighted-average

basis remained strong at 47% y-o-y (or +33% vs Mar 2019) in

Mar (Feb-21: 144%), as compared to their c.10% weighted

average presales target for 2021. This translates into a decent

weighted average lock-in ratio of c.21% in 3M21 (vs 13%/18% for

3M20/3M19). To achieve their full-year presales target,

developers will only need to maintain a flattish 1% y-o-y growth

for the rest of the year. Spotlight on land supply and new starts. Changchun served as

the first city to execute the concentrated land supply policy and

launched a total of 53 land parcels last week. Feedback appears

to be encouraging with less heat being felt in the bidding

process. That said, actual execution structure of other cities and

the impact of the policy on land prices and developers’ pace of

land acquisitions will have to be closely monitored. Meanwhile,

growth in residential GFA new starts remained sluggish, with

Mar-20 posting a mere 2.2% y-o-y growth or c.30% for 3M21.

New start-to-sales ratio has accordingly stayed low at c.0.8x in

Mar and for 3M21. Top picks: Vanke, COLI, CIFI and Logan. The sector is trading at

4.8x/4.2x FY21/FY22F PE, which we believe is attractive and

should be well supported by the upcoming strong presales

numbers over 2Q. We recommend staying with large-cap

names that are 1) subject to less pressure to deleverage and

may surprise on the upside in terms of land acquisitions; and 2)

in possession of positive catalysts ahead that may stimulate

share price performance. We have in this aspect picked Vanke

(2202 HK) and COLI (688 HK). We also highlight CIFI (884 HK) and

Logan (3380 HK) that we think are trading at undemanding

valuations given their good growth prospects and fundamentals.

HSI: 28,970

ANALYST

Jason LAM +852 3668 4179 [email protected]

Danielle WANG CFA, +852 3668 4176 [email protected]

Ken HE CFA, +86 21 3896 8221 [email protected]

Ben Wong [email protected]

Recommendation & valuation

Price

Target

Price Rec Mkt Cap

FY22F

PE

HK$ HK$ US$bn x

China Overseas

(688 HK)

20.15 25.70 BUY 28.4 4.0

China Vanke 'H'

(2202 HK)

28.25 45.56 BUY 49.9 5.3

Logan Property

(3380 HK)

12.50 16.44 BUY 8.9 3.5

CIFI Holdings*

(884 HK)

7.09 n.a. NR 7.5 4.4

* Consensus

Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (“DBS HK”)

DBS Group Research . Equity

China / Hong Kong Industry Focus

China Property Sector

19 Apr 2021

Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/company/TR4295871425






Industry Focus


Page 2

3M21 presales performances

s

Source: Companies, DBS HK

Comp anies Stock Cod eTargeted

growth

3M21 yoy

growth

3M21

lock- in

3M20

lock- in

Large cap

COLI 688 HK 10% 50% 23% 17%

CR Land 1109 HK 11% 74% 22% 14%

Country Garden 2007 HK 10% 38% 22% 18%

Evergrande 3333 HK 4% 4% 20% 20%

Longfor 960 HK 15% 58% 19% 14%

Sunac 1918 HK 11% 88% 18% 11%

Shimao 813 HK 10% 82% 20% 12%

Large cap average (weighted average) 9% 43% 21% 16%

Large cap average (simp le average) 10% 56% 21% 15%

Mid cap

Agile 3383 HK 9% 153% 26% 11%

Aoyuan 3883 HK 13% 110% 20% 11%

China Jinmao Hldgs 817 HK 8% 141% 25% 11%

CIFI 884 HK 15% 153% 21% 10%

Seazen 1030 HK 4% 60% 19% 12%

R&F 2777 HK 8% 83% 20% 12%

Kaisa Group 1638 HK 22% 168% 24% 11%

KWG 1813 HK 20% 66% 17% 13%

Logan 3380 HK 20% 159% 28% 13%

Sino-Ocean 3377 HK 14% 36% 14% 12%

Yuexiu 123 HK 17% 174% 22% 10%

Mid cap average (weighted average) 13% 111% 21% 11%

Mid cap average (simp le average) 14% 114% 21% 11%

Small cap

Greentown 3900 HK 9% 216% 23% 8%

CCRE 832 HK 17% 0% 13% 16%

SCE 1966 HK 18% 101% 22% 13%

COGO* 81 HK 8% 90% 22% 13%

Zhongliang 2772 HK 7% 157% 27% 11%

Greenland HK 337 HK 10% 73% 11% 7%

Zhenro 6158 HK 6% 123% 27% 13%

Poly HK 119 HK 19% 94% 17% 10%

Powerlong 1238 HK 29% 207% 23% 10%

Yuzhou 1628 HK 5% 113% 20% 10%

Yanlord YLLG SP -11% 93% 19% 9%

Small cap average (weighted average) 10% 126% 22% 11%

Small cap average (simp le average) 11% 115% 20% 11%

Overall (weighted average)# 10% 73% 21% 13%

Overall (simp le average)# 12% 101% 21% 12%

Industry Focus


Page 3

Developers’ presales lock-in ratio


23%

20%22%

18%

23%

20%

22%

19%

19%

21%

25% 23%

27%

20%

27%26%

20%

14%

28%

17%

24%

25%

20%22%

22%

13%

23%22%

11%

17%17%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

Pre-sales target (LHS) 3M Pre-sales (LHS) Pre-sales lock-in ratio (RHS)

RMB mn

Average=21%

Industry Focus


Page 4

Developers’ monthly average presales growth


RMB Mn 3M21 3M20 2020 3M2021

vs

3M2020

3M2021 vs

2020

Evergrande 64,800 62,080 60,271 4% 8%

Vanke 62,840 54,940 58,679 14% 7%

Country Garden 52,690 47,040 47,555 12% 11%

Sunac 47,860 30,920 47,938 55% 0%

Poly CN 49,205 27,370 41,904 80% 17%

COLI 38,832 26,774 30,060 45% 29%

Shimao 30,502 20,324 25,026 50% 22%

CR Land 26,053 22,410 23,753 16% 10%

Longfor 24,940 21,050 22,551 18% 11%

Seazen 20,554 14,258 20,914 44% -2%

China Jinmao 22,500 13,045 19,258 72% 17%

CIFI 26,000 10,100 19,250 157% 35%

Greentown 20,500 10,400 17,892 97% 15%

Zhenro 15,393 7,700 11,825 100% 30%

Logan 12,900 7,120 10,058 81% 28%

Agile 13,000 7,650 11,516 70% 13%

R&F 12,900 7,120 10,058 81% 28%

Aoyuan 11,990 7,280 11,084 65% 8%

China SCE 10,834 6,022 8,461 80% 28%

Kaisa 13,390 4,800 8,908 179% 50%

Yuexiu Property 11,415 4,843 7,980 136% 43%

KWG 10,306 6,168 8,634 67% 19%

Sino-Ocean 11,020 9,000 10,920 22% 1%

Average 26,540 18,627 23,239 42% 14%

Powerlong 9,513 3,196 6,796 198% 40%

Central China 8,425 6,562 5,695 28% 48%

Yuzhou 8,561 5,717 8,747 50% -2%

BCL 8,590 2,400 5,905 258% 45%

COGO 7,130 4,214 5,392 69% 32%

Average 8,444 4,418 6,507 91% 30%

Yanlord 5,292 3,461 6,538 53% -19%

Poly HK 2,000 2,100 4,342 -5% -54%

Fantasia 4,509 2,103 4,101 114% 10%

Average 3,789 2,123 4,993 78% -24%

Sector average 38,773 25,167 34,739 54% 12%

Developers with monthly sales Rmb7bn - Rmb10bn

Developers with monthly sales below Rmb7bn

Developers with monthly sales above Rmb10bn

Industry Focus


Page 5

Developers’ y-o-y sales growth


Industry Focus


Page 6

Developers’ ASP growth


-18%-10%-9% -9% -6% -5% -4% -3%-3% -1% 0% 1% 1% 2%

2% 4%5% 7% 8%

8%8%

9%

10%

10%11%

13%

17%

18%20%

26%

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

(60,000)

(40,000)

(20,000)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

Ch

ina

Jin

ma

o

CR

La

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Sh

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Agile

Fan

tasi

a

Ch

ina

SC

E

3M2021 ASP 2020 ASP Change

RMB/sm

Recorded ASP IncreaseRecorded ASP Drop

Industry Focus


Page 7

Monthly new start GFA (Residential)

Monthly RE investments (Residential)

Residential GFA sold

Residential ASP

Source: NBS, DBS HK

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000

Ma

r-1

6Ju

n-1

6S

ep

-16

De

c-1

6M

ar-

17

Jun

-17

Se

p-1

7D

ec-

17

Ma

r-1

8Ju

n-1

8S

ep

-18

De

c-1

8M

ar-

19

Jun

-19

Se

p-1

9D

ec-

19

Ma

r-2

0Ju

n-2

0S

ep

-20

De

c-2

0M

ar-

21

GFA new start (Residential) (LHS) y-o-y % (RHS)

'000 sm

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

Ma

r-1

6Ju

n-1

6S

ep

-16

De

c-1

6M

ar-

17

Jun

-17

Se

p-1

7D

ec-

17

Ma

r-1

8Ju

n-1

8S

ep

-18

De

c-1

8M

ar-

19

Jun

-19

Se

p-1

9D

ec-

19

Ma

r-2

0Ju

n-2

0S

ep

-20

De

c-2

0M

ar-

21

RE investments (Residential) (LHS)

y-o-y % (RHS)

Rmb m

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Ma

r-1

6Ju

n-1

6S

ep

-16

De

c-1

6M

ar-

17

Jun

-17

Se

p-1

7D

ec-

17

Ma

r-1

8Ju

n-1

8S

ep

-18

De

c-1

8M

ar-

19

Jun

-19

Se

p-1

9D

ec-

19

Ma

r-2

0Ju

n-2

0S

ep

-20

De

c-2

0M

ar-

21

Residential GFA sold (LHS) y-o-y % (RHS)

'000 sm

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Ma

r-1

6Ju

n-1

6S

ep

-16

De

c-1

6M

ar-

17

Jun

-17

Se

p-1

7D

ec-

17

Ma

r-1

8Ju

n-1

8S

ep

-18

De

c-1

8M

ar-

19

Jun

-19

Se

p-1

9D

ec-

19

Ma

r-2

0Ju

n-2

0S

ep

-20

De

c-2

0M

ar-

21

Residential ASP (LHS) y-o-y % (RHS)

Rmb/sm

Industry Focus


Page 8

YTD new start GFA and GFA sold (Residential)

China residential inventory – completed but unsold

Source: NBS, DBS HK

ASP change in 70 cities

Source: NBS, DBS HK

Industry Focus


Page 9

HK listed China property stocks’ PE discount to A-share

Source: Bloomberg Financial L.P., DBS HK

Large cap HK listed China property stocks’ PE discount to A-share


Industry Focus


Page 10

PE comparison cross sector


Note: Only include stocks under DBS coverage

PB comparison cross sector



Industry Focus


Page 11

Dividend yield comparison cross sector



Industry Focus


Page 12

Valuation comparison

^ Denominated in SGD for price

~ Simple average discount to NAV; Market cap weighted average NAV = 33%

# Exclude outliners ~~Gross Gearing

^^ FY21: FY22; FY22: FY23

Source: Thomson Reuters, *DBS HK

3- mth

d aily Net Disc/

Mkt t rad ing 12- m EPS gth PE PE Yield Yield R OE R OE Gearing P/Bk NAV (Prem)

Price Cap value R ecom target 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 1H20A 21F to NAV

Comp any Name Cod e HK$ US$b n US$m HK$ % % x x % % % % % x HK$ %

Large cap

China Overseas* 688 HK 20.15 28.4 92.3 BUY 25.70 13 12 4.5 4.0 6.6 7.4 12.1 12.4 31.6 0.6 38.8 48.0

CR Land* 1109 HK 37.60 34.5 70.0 BUY 49.60 14 10 8.2 7.5 4.5 5.0 12.3 12.3 45.9 1.0 68.2 44.9

China Vanke 'H'* 2202 HK 28.25 49.9 39.9 BUY 45.56 10 12 5.9 5.3 5.0 5.7 19.4 19.0 27.6 1.1 41.1 31.2

Country Garden* 2007 HK 9.70 27.5 42.0 BUY 12.45 7 12 5.1 4.5 5.6 6.3 18.8 18.5 58.1 0.9 18.2 46.8

Evergrande* 3333 HK 14.04 23.9 34.0 BUY 22.94 25 2 5.3 5.2 9.5 9.7 17.8 16.7 199.3 0.9 33.9 58.6

Longfor* 960 HK 51.80 40.4 54.0 BUY 57.65 16 13 11.6 10.3 3.9 4.4 19.7 19.9 51.4 2.2 39.0 (32.8)

Shimao Group* 813 HK 23.50 10.7 23.4 BUY 36.07 16 10 4.8 4.4 8.8 9.7 15.5 15.6 60.7 0.7 48.9 52.0

Sunac China* 1918 HK 31.05 18.6 81.8 BUY 46.50 5 10 3.8 3.4 5.9 6.4 23.0 21.3 150.5 0.8 52.9 41.3

Average 13 10 6.2 5.6 6.2 6.8 17.3 17.0 78.1 1.0 36.2

Mid cap

Agile Property* 3383 HK 12.30 6.2 7.1 BUY 18.14 19 8 4.0 3.7 9.9 10.7 14.7 14.6 114.1 0.6 12.2 (1.2)

China Aoyuan* 3883 HK 8.23 2.9 10.0 BUY 10.15 19 20 3.5 2.9 10.1 12.1 26.8 27.0 79.8 0.9 n.a. n.a.

China Jinmao Hldgs* 817 HK 3.03 4.9 16.7 HOLD 3.00 72 25 4.6 3.7 9.5 11.1 14.2 13.9 76.6 0.5 9.0 66.3

CIFI Holdings 884 HK 7.09 7.5 14.1 NR n.a. 16 17 5.1 4.4 6.8 8.0 21.9 21.2 72.4 1.0 n.a. n.a.

Seazen 1030 HK 9.55 7.3 16.3 NR n.a. (4) 12 5.1 4.5 5.9 6.6 24.3 22.7 55.1 1.1 n.a. n.a.

Guangzhou R&F 2777 HK 10.00 4.8 8.6 NR n.a. 1 12 3.3 2.9 13.0 14.2 11.4 10.4 176.7 0.3 n.a. n.a.

KWG Property 1813 HK 13.16 5.4 10.5 NR n.a. 16 19 4.5 3.8 9.9 11.7 18.3 19.5 59.2 0.7 n.a. n.a.

Logan Property* 3380 HK 12.50 8.9 8.1 BUY 16.44 21 15 4.0 3.5 10.1 11.5 32.9 31.1 76.3 1.2 33.7 62.9

Shenzhen Inv 604 HK 2.94 3.4 2.1 NR n.a. 18 10 5.9 5.4 7.0 7.4 8.4 8.9 28.3 0.5 n.a. n.a.

Sino-Ocean Land 3377 HK 1.74 1.7 2.4 NR n.a. (9) 8 4.3 3.9 10.5 11.8 5.4 5.5 65.0 0.2 n.a. n.a.

Yuexiu Property* 123 HK 1.83 3.6 4.8 BUY 2.32 17 14 5.1 4.5 7.9 8.9 10.4 n.a. 71.2 0.5 3.5 47.0

Average 16 14 4.4 3.9 9.1 10.3 17.8 18.0 79.1 0.7 43.5

Small cap

BJ Cap Land 'H' 2868 HK 0.98 0.1 0.9 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 279.4 n.a. n.a. n.a.

Central China* 832 HK 3.95 1.5 2.0 BUY 4.79 13 15 4.7 4.1 7.4 8.6 16.6 16.3 35.5 0.7 8.4 53.1

China Merchants Land 978 HK 1.15 0.7 0.3 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 10.4 n.a. 41.6 n.a. n.a. n.a.

China SCE 1966 HK 3.58 1.9 3.6 NR n.a. 7 22 3.1 2.6 9.9 12.0 18.2 18.8 68.3 0.5 n.a. n.a.

China South City^^ 1668 HK 0.87 0.9 2.6 NR n.a. 12 19 3.0 2.5 5.4 5.4 6.6 6.9 67.3 n.a. n.a. n.a.

COGO* 81 HK 5.02 2.2 4.0 BUY 6.91 17 14 3.2 2.8 7.3 8.4 18.4 18.1 43.7 0.5 12.3 59.3

Gemdale Props 535 HK 1.18 2.5 2.5 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 27.5 n.a. n.a. n.a.

Greenland 337 HK 2.75 1.0 0.5 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 44.8 0.9 n.a. n.a.

Greentown 3900 HK 9.68 3.1 8.4 NR n.a. 5 22 7.4 6.1 3.8 4.6 7.2 8.0 139.1 0.5 n.a. n.a.

Hopson Dev 754 HK 26.70 7.5 6.8 NR n.a. (71) 5 15.1 14.3 2.0 2.1 n.a. n.a. 91.9 1.1 n.a. n.a.

Joy City 207 HK 0.49 0.9 0.9 NR n.a. (3) 0 6.2 6.2 6.3 n.a. 2.6 n.a. 64.3 0.2 n.a. n.a.

Kaisa Group 1638 HK 3.78 3.4 8.4 NR n.a. 10 16 3.3 2.9 6.8 8.7 17.1 16.7 130.4 0.4 n.a. n.a.

LVGEM* 95 HK 2.25 1.5 1.4 BUY 2.96 193 26 11.2 8.9 2.2 2.9 5.8 6.7 147.7 0.6 13.2 82.9

Minmetals Land 230 HK 0.88 0.4 0.1 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 148.7 n.a. n.a. n.a.

Modern Land (China) 1107 HK 0.85 0.3 0.1 NR n.a. (5) 29 2.8 2.2 n.a. n.a. 13.4 12.1 107.3 0.2 n.a. n.a.

Poly (Hong Kong) 119 HK 2.25 1.1 3.5 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 115.3 n.a. n.a. n.a.

Powerlong 1238 HK 8.41 4.5 6.8 NR n.a. (17) 22 5.8 4.7 6.8 8.3 15.6 17.8 83.5 1.4 n.a. n.a.

Road King 1098 HK 10.32 1.0 0.7 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 119.2 n.a. n.a. n.a.

Ronshine China 3301 HK 5.47 1.2 1.6 NR n.a. (10) 24 3.8 3.1 8.5 10.5 11.5 9.3 91.2 0.4 n.a. n.a.

Shui On Land* 272 HK 1.30 1.3 1.5 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 73.2 n.a. n.a. n.a.

Soho China 410 HK 2.36 1.6 3.0 NR n.a. (17) 5 23.0 22.0 n.a. n.a. 1.3 1.5 41.0 0.3 n.a. n.a.

Yanlord Land*^ YLLG SP 1.27 1.9 2.7 HOLD 1.25 87 32 4.6 3.5 5.5 5.7 8.1 9.9 88.2 0.4 4.6 72.3

Yuzhou Properties* 1628 HK 2.26 1.7 4.6 SELL 1.33 200 9 5.2 4.8 16.1 16.1 8.3 8.9 74.5 0.4 7.8 71.0

Zhenro Properties 6158 HK 5.32 3.0 4.8 NR n.a. 17 22 6.6 5.4 3.3 4.3 14.0 15.6 79.1 0.9 n.a. n.a.

Zhong An 672 HK 0.400 0.3 0.3 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 64.4 n.a. n.a. n.a.

Zhongliang Holdings 2772 HK 5.48 2.5 2.5 NR n.a. 23 15 3.8 3.3 10.5 11.8 8.3 8.9 69.9 1.2 n.a. n.a.

Average# 28 20 4.4 3.7 7.6 8.7 12.4 12.9 91.8 0.6 63.9

Average (Overall)# 20 16 4.8 4.2 7.8 8.8 15.7 15.9 85.3 0.8 44.9~

16- Ap r

Industry Focus


Page 13

PE valuations, 2011 to 2020 trough (based on earnings forecasts)


# Exclude outliners

^^ FY21: FY22; FY22: FY23


16- Ap r Mkt 21F 22F

Comp any Name Cod e

Price

HK$

Cap

US$b

PE

x

PE

x

Trough

2011

Trough

2012

Trough

2013

Trough

2014

Trough

2015

Trough

2016

Trough

2017

Trough

2018

Trough

2019

Trough

2020

Large cap

China Overseas* 688 HK 20.15 28.4 4.5 4.0 6.4 7.0 7.7 6.0 6.6 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.8 4.0

CR Land* 1109 HK 37.60 34.5 8.2 7.5 7.2 10.1 11.9 7.1 8.2 7.1 6.2 6.7 6.7 6.7

China Vanke 'H'* 2202 HK 28.25 49.9 5.9 5.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.3 6.8 6.5 7.3 6.1 6.0 5.3

Country Garden* 2007 HK 9.70 27.5 5.1 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.2 3.8 4.0 4.7 6.3 4.3 3.7 3.4

Evergrande* 3333 HK 14.04 23.9 5.3 5.2 2.9 3.3 4.2 3.4 4.3 6.4 7.7 4.8 4.1 2.8

Longfor* 960 HK 51.80 40.4 11.6 10.3 6.3 5.6 7.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 6.7 6.9 8.5

Shimao Group* 813 HK 23.50 10.7 4.8 4.4 3.6 3.9 6.4 4.3 3.3 3.2 4.6 4.9 4.6 4.9

Sunac China* 1918 HK 31.05 18.6 3.8 3.4 1.4 1.5 3.1 2.2 2.7 3.1 7.8 5.6 4.2 3.5

Average 6.2 5.6 4.7 5.3 6.7 4.8 5.2 5.3 6.4 5.6 5.2 4.9

Mid cap

Agile Property* 3383 HK 12.30 6.2 4.0 3.7 2.7 3.8 4.0 2.4 3.0 3.3 4.6 3.8 3.3 3.4

China Aoyuan* 3883 HK 8.23 2.9 3.5 2.9 5.1 5.1 5.1 2.2 3.2 2.8 3.6 4.0 3.3 2.6

China Jinmao Hldgs* 817 HK 3.03 4.9 4.6 3.7 6.0 5.9 7.3 4.8 5.1 5.1 5.7 5.8 5.1 4.8

CIFI Holdings 884 HK 7.09 7.5 5.1 4.4 n.a. n.a. 3.8 3.2 2.7 2.8 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6

Seazen 1030 HK 9.55 7.3 5.1 4.5 n.a. n.a. 2.7 2.1 2.1 3.5 5.4 4.0 3.8 3.6

Guangzhou R&F 2777 HK 10.00 4.8 3.3 2.9 3.2 3.2 4.7 3.8 3.1 3.5 3.7 3.2 2.5 2.0

KWG Property 1813 HK 13.16 5.4 4.5 3.8 2.5 2.3 3.1 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.5 2.5 3.3

Logan Property* 3380 HK 12.50 8.9 4.0 3.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.8 4.8 4.8 3.9

Shenzhen Inv 604 HK 2.94 3.4 5.9 5.4 3.8 4.4 6.2 5.3 5.4 6.2 6.5 6.4 6.2 4.4

Sino-Ocean Land 3377 HK 1.74 1.7 4.3 3.9 4.1 5.4 6.7 6.0 5.9 5.1 5.6 3.8 3.7 3.3

Yuexiu Property* 123 HK 1.83 3.6 5.1 4.5 4.6 4.5 5.8 5.9 6.3 5.3 7.8 4.8 5.4 4.3

Average 4.4 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.9 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.6 4.1 3.9 3.5

Small Cap

BJ Cap Land 'H' 2868 HK 0.98 0.1 n.a. n.a. 1.9 2.1 3.4 2.6 3.1 3.5 4.1 4.1 1.9 1.5

Central China* 832 HK 3.95 1.5 4.7 4.1 2.8 2.8 3.5 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.7 4.3 3.6 3.3

China Merchants Land 978 HK 1.15 0.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 12.0 4.5 5.5 3.9 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6

China SCE 1966 HK 3.58 1.9 3.1 2.6 3.7 2.9 2.4 5.6 4.5 3.7 4.7 3.2 2.7 3.3

China South City^^ 1668 HK 0.87 0.9 3.0 2.5 4.3 4.5 4.3 5.1 5.7 5.8 6.9 4.6 4.8 1.5

COGO* 81 HK 5.02 2.2 3.2 2.8 3.7 5.0 6.3 3.1 3.1 2.7 4.2 3.8 3.5 2.8

Gemdale Props 535 HK 1.18 2.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 10.9 14.1 3.8 5.5 4.2 3.0 2.8 2.9

Greenland 337 HK 2.75 1.0 n.a. n.a. 1.4 1.2 0.8 11.7 8.0 4.8 4.0 2.8 2.0 3.0

Greentown 3900 HK 9.68 3.1 7.4 6.1 2.0 1.5 3.3 2.3 3.1 3.4 5.5 4.0 3.6 4.6

Hopson Dev 754 HK 26.70 7.5 15.1 14.3 2.8 2.8 5.6 3.9 10.7 12.1 11.0 6.2 5.6 4.2

Joy City 207 HK 0.49 0.9 6.2 6.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 21.1 16.6 14.2 11.2 7.2 6.9 2.6

Kaisa Group 1638 HK 3.78 3.4 3.3 2.9 3.8 3.0 2.8 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.9

LVGEM* 95 HK 2.25 1.5 11.2 8.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 7.5 10.1 14.8 15.9 6.0

Minmetals Land 230 HK 0.88 0.4 n.a. n.a. 3.8 2.3 4.2 3.6 4.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 4.1 4.1

Modern Land (China) 1107 HK 0.85 0.3 2.8 2.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.3 2.4 2.0 2.5 3.4 3.4 2.1

Poly (Hong Kong) 119 HK 2.25 1.1 n.a. n.a. 4.2 4.9 5.2 3.9 5.7 13.0 17.6 3.3 2.7 3.2

Powerlong 1238 HK 8.41 4.5 5.8 4.7 1.5 1.6 3.6 2.8 3.2 2.7 3.1 2.3 2.1 4.3

Road King 1098 HK 10.32 1.0 n.a. n.a. 2.2 2.4 6.5 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8

Ronshine China 3301 HK 5.47 1.2 3.8 3.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.7 2.9 2.1

Shui On Land* 272 HK 1.30 1.3 n.a. n.a. 5.6 6.5 9.1 10.6 5.8 6.4 5.6 4.5 3.9 17.0

Soho China 410 HK 2.36 1.6 23.0 22.0 10.1 5.0 6.9 7.7 10.2 16.7 40.8 29.7 22.0 19.9

Yanlord Land*^ YLLG SP 1.27 1.9 4.6 3.5 5.0 7.1 9.3 7.5 7.1 7.0 4.8 3.1 3.1 2.4

Yuzhou Properties* 1628 HK 2.26 1.7 5.2 4.8 2.7 3.6 3.6 2.4 2.1 3.3 3.6 2.7 2.7 2.5

Zhenro Properties 6158 HK 5.32 3.0 6.6 5.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4 4.6 4.5

Zhong An 672 HK 0.40 0.3 n.a. n.a. 4.1 9.9 5.3 8.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 8.3 8.3 8.3

Zhongliang Holdings 2772 HK 5.48 2.5 3.8 3.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.3 3.0

Average# 4.4 3.7 2.9 3.3 4.9 5.8 4.8 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.0 3.6

Average (Overall)# 4.8 4.2 3.6 4.0 5.3 4.9 4.6 4.6 5.2 4.7 4.2 3.8

Industry Focus


Page 14

PE valuations, 2011 to 2020 peak (based on earnings forecasts)


# Exclude outliners

^^ FY21: FY22; FY22: FY23


16- Ap r Mkt 21F 22F

Comp any Name Cod e

Price

HK$

Cap

US$b

PE

x

PE

x

Peak

2011

Peak

2012

Peak

2013

Peak

2014

Peak

2015

Peak

2016

Peak

2017

Peak

2018

Peak

2019

Peak

2020

Large cap

China Overseas* 688 HK 20.15 28.4 4.5 4.0 11.9 12.2 11.8 8.8 9.7 8.7 8.9 8.3 7.5 7.5

CR Land* 1109 HK 37.60 34.5 8.2 7.5 15.2 17.6 17.0 12.3 12.8 10.9 9.9 9.6 10.2 10.2



Evergrande* 3333 HK 14.04 23.9 5.3 5.2 8.9 6.1 6.4 4.6 14.2 13.2 16.5 9.4 6.3 10.2

Longfor* 960 HK 51.80 40.4 11.6 10.3 14.2 11.9 11.5 7.5 8.7 8.2 11.3 10.3 11.8 13.4

Shimao Group* 813 HK 23.50 10.7 4.8 4.4 9.7 9.5 9.0 7.5 6.2 5.6 7.7 7.9 8.0 9.0

Sunac China* 1918 HK 31.05 18.6 3.8 3.4 3.5 5.5 5.5 5.1 6.3 12.4 46.7 19.2 7.1 7.0

Average 6.2 5.6 10.6 10.2 10.1 7.8 9.6 9.9 15.8 11.2 8.1 8.9

Mid cap


China Aoyuan* 3883 HK 8.23 2.9 3.5 2.9 10.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 4.6 4.3 8.0 6.6 7.2 7.2

China Jinmao Hldgs* 817 HK 3.03 4.9 4.6 3.7 16.6 10.2 10.1 8.4 8.4 8.2 11.5 10.3 9.8 9.8

CIFI Holdings 884 HK 7.09 7.5 5.1 4.4 n.a. n.a. 5.9 4.4 5.1 5.4 8.4 8.9 6.6 6.5

Seazen 1030 HK 9.55 7.3 5.1 4.5 n.a. n.a. 4.8 4.4 6.5 8.8 11.5 10.5 7.2 6.8

Guangzhou R&F 2777 HK 10.00 4.8 3.3 2.9 8.0 7.4 8.1 5.2 4.8 6.0 7.2 6.3 3.9 3.4

KWG Property 1813 HK 13.16 5.4 4.5 3.8 8.1 5.4 5.4 4.3 5.1 3.9 5.9 6.1 5.0 5.6


Shenzhen Inv 604 HK 2.94 3.4 5.9 5.4 9.0 8.6 11.8 8.0 10.3 10.1 9.1 10.3 8.9 7.5

Sino-Ocean Land 3377 HK 1.74 1.7 4.3 3.9 10.3 12.1 11.9 9.2 9.9 8.2 9.3 8.7 6.9 5.9


Average 4.4 3.9 10.5 8.2 8.0 5.7 6.8 6.7 8.9 8.2 6.7 6.4

Small Cap


Central China* 832 HK 3.95 1.5 4.7 4.1 5.6 6.3 6.3 4.1 4.4 3.9 8.5 8.6 7.3 6.8


China SCE 1966 HK 3.58 1.9 3.1 2.6 5.5 3.8 6.6 5.6 5.6 7.6 7.4 5.7 5.4 5.3

China South City^^ 1668 HK 0.87 0.9 3.0 2.5 12.3 6.6 6.9 11.8 9.5 10.8 17.2 13.4 4.8 5.2

COGO* 81 HK 5.02 2.2 3.2 2.8 9.7 9.7 10.0 6.4 6.1 6.4 8.8 6.9 5.4 5.1



Greentown 3900 HK 9.68 3.1 7.4 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.6 4.5 6.1 7.8 10.8 12.4 7.3 12.1

Hopson Dev 754 HK 26.70 7.5 15.1 14.3 6.4 16.0 15.7 16.1 24.6 22.4 29.8 14.9 10.2 10.8


Kaisa Group 1638 HK 3.78 3.4 3.3 2.9 10.2 6.9 6.4 4.4 2.3 9.2 36.3 17.4 6.1 5.6

LVGEM* 95 HK 2.25 1.5 11.2 8.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 11.3 26.6 22.1 21.8 20.0

Minmetals Land 230 HK 0.88 0.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. 7.1 6.9 5.9 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 4.9


Poly (Hong Kong) 119 HK 2.25 1.1 n.a. n.a. 16.1 9.8 9.9 6.4 27.9 670.0 637.5 18.8 5.8 3.2

Powerlong 1238 HK 8.41 4.5 5.8 4.7 6.5 5.6 6.7 4.9 4.6 5.3 6.5 6.4 8.1 7.2

Road King 1098 HK 10.32 1.0 n.a. n.a. 7.0 7.6 7.6 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8

Ronshine China 3301 HK 5.47 1.2 3.8 3.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 7.6 4.4 4.4


Soho China 410 HK 2.36 1.6 23.0 22.0 19.9 14.2 8.6 13.3 27.4 51.4 85.8 68.7 34.7 43.0

Yanlord Land*^ YLLG SP 1.27 1.9 4.6 3.5 10.5 15.0 14.7 11.2 12.7 9.8 7.9 5.0 4.4 4.1

Yuzhou Properties* 1628 HK 2.26 1.7 5.2 4.8 5.8 6.5 6.5 4.6 5.2 5.2 6.3 5.5 4.4 4.4

Zhenro Properties 6158 HK 5.32 3.0 6.6 5.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.5 9.8 7.1

Zhong An 672 HK 0.40 0.3 n.a. n.a. 12.3 14.9 10.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3


Average# 4.4 3.7 7.5 7.9 11.9 12.2 15.1 10.0 11.8 9.0 6.5 6.1

Average (Overall)# 4.8 4.2 9.1 8.5 10.3 9.2 11.3 9.0 11.7 9.2 6.9 6.8

Industry Focus


Page 15

PE valuations, 2011 to 2020 average (based on earnings forecasts)


# Exclude outliners

^^ FY21: FY22; FY22: FY23


16-Apr Mkt 21F 22F

Com pany Nam e Code

P r ice

HK$

Cap

US$bn

PE

x

PE

x

Avg

2011

Avg

2012

Avg

2013

Avg

2014

Avg

2015

Avg

2016

Avg

2017

Avg

2018

Avg

2019

Avg

2020

L arge cap

China Overs eas * 688 HK 20.15 28.4 4.5 4.0 9.9 9.4 9.5 7.2 7.9 7.3 7.4 7.1 6.6 5.6

CR Land* 1109 HK 37.60 34.5 8.2 7.5 12.3 13.0 14.0 8.8 10.1 8.1 8.0 8.1 8.4 8.4



Evergrande* 3333 HK 14.04 23.9 5.3 5.2 6.3 4.9 4.9 4.1 8.6 9.9 10.8 6.5 5.0 6.1

Longfor* 960 HK 51.80 40.4 11.6 10.3 10.9 9.0 8.8 6.1 6.8 6.6 8.5 8.8 9.2 10.9

Shimao Group* 813 HK 23.50 10.7 4.8 4.4 6.5 7.1 7.8 5.2 4.7 4.4 6.0 6.5 6.1 7.1

Sunac China* 1918 HK 31.05 18.6 3.8 3.4 2.7 3.0 3.9 3.3 4.2 6.0 20.6 7.6 5.7 4.6

Ave rage 6.2 5.6 8.2 7.6 8.1 5.9 7.0 7.2 10.1 7.4 6.6 6.6

Mid cap


China Aoyuan* 3883 HK 8.23 2.9 3.5 2.9 7.2 5.1 5.1 3.0 3.4 3.7 5.1 5.4 5.5 3.6

China J inmao Hldgs * 817 HK 3.03 4.9 4.6 3.7 11.8 8.6 8.3 5.8 6.6 6.5 8.1 7.7 7.4 7.0

CIF I Holdings 884 HK 7.09 7.5 5.1 4.4 n.a. n.a. 4.6 3.5 3.7 4.1 5.7 6.1 5.0 5.1

Seazen 1030 HK 9.55 7.3 5.1 4.5 n.a. n.a. 3.8 2.6 4.4 6.2 8.0 6.5 5.5 4.5

Guangzhou R&F 2777 HK 10.00 4.8 3.3 2.9 5.6 5.5 6.1 4.2 4.0 4.6 5.2 4.5 3.2 2.8

KWG Property 1813 HK 13.16 5.4 4.5 3.8 5.2 4.2 4.1 3.3 3.6 3.2 4.0 4.4 3.6 4.5


Shenzhen Inv 604 HK 2.94 3.4 5.9 5.4 6.9 5.7 7.5 6.3 7.6 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.4 6.0

S ino-Ocean Land 3377 HK 1.74 1.7 4.3 3.9 7.2 8.1 8.7 6.9 7.7 6.5 7.3 6.0 5.4 4.4


Ave rage 4.4 3.9 7.3 6.3 6.2 4.3 5.0 5.2 6.4 6.0 5.4 4.7

Sm all Cap


Central China* 832 HK 3.95 1.5 4.7 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 3.0 3.1 3.2 5.0 6.7 5.7 4.0


China SCE 1966 HK 3.58 1.9 3.1 2.6 4.7 3.2 3.9 5.6 5.2 5.1 5.8 4.4 4.2 3.9

China South City^̂ 1668 HK 0.87 0.9 3.0 2.5 7.3 6.3 5.8 7.5 7.2 8.6 10.5 8.9 4.8 3.7



Greentown 3900 HK 9.68 3.1 7.4 6.1 4.1 3.6 4.7 3.3 4.3 5.5 8.5 8.0 4.9 7.4

Hops on Dev 754 HK 26.70 7.5 15.1 14.3 4.8 6.8 8.5 8.6 16.2 17.2 18.4 10.8 7.5 6.3


Kais a Group 1638 HK 3.78 3.4 3.3 2.9 7.2 3.8 4.1 3.2 2.1 2.9 13.4 6.1 4.7 3.9

LVGEM* 95 HK 2.25 1.5 11.2 8.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.6 16.6 17.2 18.6 10.0

Minmetals Land 230 HK 0.88 0.4 n.a. n.a. 11.6 4.2 5.0 4.5 4.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 6.9 4.4


Powerlong 1238 HK 8.41 4.5 5.8 4.7 4.4 3.5 4.9 3.1 3.7 4.2 4.9 4.0 4.6 5.3

Road King 1098 HK 10.32 1.0 n.a. n.a. 4.9 3.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8

Rons hine China 3301 HK 5.47 1.2 3.8 3.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.1 3.7 3.1


Soho China 410 HK 2.36 1.6 23.0 22.0 14.8 5.8 8.0 11.7 22.5 35.1 64.7 40.5 28.1 28.2

Yanlord Land*̂ YLLG SP 1.27 1.9 4.6 3.5 8.2 11.4 11.4 8.7 9.6 8.3 6.0 4.0 3.8 3.3

Yuzhou Properties * 1628 HK 2.26 1.7 5.2 4.8 4.4 4.9 4.3 2.8 3.7 4.3 4.9 4.2 3.5 3.3

Zhenro Properties 6158 HK 5.32 3.0 6.6 5.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.5 6.0 6.1

Zhong An 672 HK 0.40 0.3 n.a. n.a. 6.0 11.0 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3


Ave rage# 4.4 3.7 5.5 5.1 7.2 8.1 7.7 7.2 8.4 7.0 5.8 4.9

Ave rage (Ove rall)# 4.8 4.2 6.6 6.0 7.1 6.4 6.7 6.6 8.1 6.8 5.9 5.2

Industry Focus


Page 16

Share price performance

Source: Thomson Reuters

Price Performance 2007

1- wk 2- wk 1- mth 2- mth 3- mth 5- mth 6- mth YTD 1- yr 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 high

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

Tier 1 p layers

China Overseas 688 HK 1.4 (0.2) (3.6) 8.8 18.3 2.3 2.9 19.5 (21.4) 5.7 21.5 (24.4) 22.4 7.0 12.8 (44.4) 7.4

CR Land 1109 HK 2.7 1.1 (0.9) 18.1 20.5 7.4 5.5 17.5 19.9 6.4 14.2 (22.8) 31.9 30.9 28.9 (17.1) 82.5

China Vanke 'H' 2202 HK (0.7) (3.1) (14.7) (6.3) (3.4) 3.5 17.2 5.6 13.0 43.0 32.4 (22.7) 76.3 (14.7) 25.0 (19.5) 84.2

Country Garden 2007 HK (1.3) (3.4) 0.1 3.2 (2.5) (9.7) 0.8 (9.5) 1.4 (32.8) 2.6 36.5 243.3 (32.8) 31.0 (14.1) n.a.

Evergrande 3333 HK (1.5) (2.0) (7.3) (16.4) (2.2) (17.1) (10.8) (5.8) 4.5 6.1 117.2 (29.2) 458.0 (13.0) (7.9) (30.7) n.a.

Longfor Properties 960 HK 3.6 2.7 7.8 22.6 21.5 5.9 22.6 14.1 38.1 (7.8) 15.7 (14.9) 99.0 19.5 56.0 24.4 n.a.

Shimao Group 813 HK 0.0 (2.5) (7.7) 3.3 1.7 (22.7) (22.4) (4.9) (21.8) (2.7) (20.5) (26.4) 67.7 22.9 44.5 (17.5) (18.4)

Sunac China 1918 HK (3.4) (7.2) (9.2) 1.1 2.3 (1.9) 6.5 8.4 (6.6) 69.7 (24.0) 7.5 401.6 (21.2) 82.5 (38.5) n.a.

Average 0.1 (1.8) (4.4) 4.3 7.0 (4.0) 2.8 5.6 3.4 10.9 19.9 (12.1) 175.0 (0.2) 34.1 (19.7) 38.9

T ier 2 p layers

Agile Property 3383 HK (3.9) (4.7) 11.6 22.5 22.8 5.1 15.6 19.2 44.9 (46.9) (2.0) (8.6) 200.3 (22.3) 27.3 (11.9) (37.5)

China Aoyuan 3883 HK 0.0 (0.4) 7.3 13.8 12.6 2.9 5.6 9.2 (8.9) (24.5) 32.5 9.2 141.0 15.9 155.5 (40.6) n.a.

China Jinmao Hldgs 817 HK (1.9) (1.9) (8.5) (4.7) (15.8) (24.4) (27.0) (15.1) (41.7) (17.4) 19.4 (21.1) 64.6 2.3 72.4 (41.2) n.a.

CIFI Holdings 884 HK (5.0) (5.5) (3.7) (0.1) 10.1 15.3 25.3 7.9 21.4 (6.1) 12.3 20.8 125.4 (11.7) 58.4 (0.3) n.a.

Seazen 1030 HK (3.8) 1.8 0.3 27.3 55.8 44.5 46.9 48.1 35.3 (21.7) 86.1 18.7 208.2 9.4 76.9 (32.0) n.a.

GZ R&F 2777 HK (1.4) (2.9) (6.4) 0.8 0.9 (2.9) 2.7 0.3 0.3 (16.3) 0.6 (1.8) 87.8 (32.8) 21.5 (30.7) (77.0)

KWG 1813 HK (0.9) (2.2) 4.1 20.5 23.9 15.2 26.3 24.4 40.5 33.5 13.1 (17.8) 107.5 (24.1) 57.6 18.7 n.a.

Logan Property 3380 HK (1.1) (4.6) 1.6 5.0 2.8 0.0 3.1 (1.6) (0.5) 10.0 9.1 11.4 175.8 21.4 33.3 (2.9) n.a.

Shenzhen Inv 604 HK 4.3 6.9 8.1 9.3 8.9 19.0 22.0 10.5 23.0 (23.6) 62.8 (14.3) 4.2 (20.1) 20.5 (14.7) (62.1)

Sino-Ocean 3377 HK 1.8 0.6 (1.7) 8.7 6.1 6.4 11.0 12.3 (12.6) (13.4) 12.7 (30.2) 55.3 (36.0) (9.3) (49.8) n.a.

Yuexiu Property 123 HK 2.8 3.4 4.6 13.0 17.3 15.8 18.1 17.3 28.9 (16.8) (10.1) (20.9) 37.7 (1.4) 25.0 (13.3) (36.5)

Average (0.7) (0.5) 0.8 10.0 12.0 7.7 12.6 11.1 8.3 (12.0) 20.8 0.6 115.7 (7.7) 56.0 (21.5) (58.9)

T ier 3 p layers

BJ Cap. Land 2868 HK 0.0 1.0 (24.6) (25.2) (31.0) (31.9) (27.9) (25.2) (42.0) 11.4 20.8 (18.0) 39.5 (30.8) (14.9) (40.2) (85.7)

Central China 832 HK 7.9 9.7 4.2 11.6 14.8 (9.6) (7.7) 9.7 (3.4) (26.8) (7.4) 4.3 116.6 (21.3) 57.6 (20.7) n.a.

China Merchants Land 978 HK 0.0 (0.9) (3.4) 1.8 (0.9) (3.4) (0.9) 0.9 (8.7) (40.0) 36.8 (28.2) 28.6 (23.6) 10.9 (6.6) (74.2)

China SCE Property 1966 HK (0.3) (1.4) 5.9 17.8 17.8 4.1 0.3 11.9 3.8 (12.4) 8.0 33.1 44.6 (15.4) 59.3 (29.5) n.a.

China South City 1668 HK 1.2 0.0 (5.4) (1.1) 1.2 11.5 14.5 (24.3) 17.6 60.9 (50.6) (7.4) 26.5 (45.9) (10.8) 16.2 n.a.

COGO 81 HK 0.6 (0.2) 5.5 19.2 24.0 3.5 1.4 20.7 5.5 (46.7) (16.7) (22.9) 69.2 (38.3) 109.7 (22.8) 13.5

Gemdale Props 535 HK (0.8) 0.9 (4.8) 0.9 5.4 (5.6) (7.1) 6.3 (4.8) (28.6) 4.0 (8.7) 70.5 (8.6) 39.2 7.8 168.2

Greenland 337 HK (3.2) (3.2) 10.4 17.5 17.5 10.0 5.8 18.0 (4.8) (18.3) (1.9) (36.1) 61.1 (38.6) 77.0 (31.1) (63.2)

Greentown 3900 HK (2.8) (3.0) (16.6) (10.4) (11.8) (15.2) (29.9) (14.6) 31.1 (35.0) 0.0 (18.4) 60.2 (41.6) 62.8 20.2 (49.8)

Hopson Dev 754 HK (2.9) (4.6) 5.3 6.4 32.2 41.6 35.5 35.1 278.7 (24.0) 8.7 (10.5) 10.9 (15.4) 21.9 150.1 (14.6)

Joy City 207 HK 1.0 2.1 (3.9) (5.8) 0.0 (2.0) 3.2 3.2 (22.2) (23.5) (21.3) (16.9) 28.6 (32.5) 1.2 (44.8) (88.5)

Kaisa Group 1638 HK (2.3) (1.0) (4.4) 2.2 1.6 1.9 (3.4) 1.6 32.9 (36.4) (1.9) 0.0 182.6 (43.3) 48.8 3.0 n.a.

LVGEM 95 HK 1.4 5.1 (5.1) (1.3) (2.2) (8.2) (11.8) (3.4) 0.4 119.8 9.0 (1.2) 24.7 (25.2) 25.1 (16.5) 190.7

Minmetals Land 230 HK 2.3 3.5 (5.4) (2.2) 1.1 (3.3) 1.1 1.1 (14.6) (13.6) 1.1 3.3 40.9 0.0 0.0 (33.6) (76.2)

Modern Land (China) 1107 HK 2.4 3.7 (11.5) (6.6) (4.5) (10.5) (24.8) 0.0 (17.5) 1.6 98.4 (53.2) 79.5 (42.9) 22.9 (28.0) n.a.

Poly HK 119 HK (1.3) (1.3) (13.1) (2.2) (3.4) (7.8) 0.0 (0.9) (13.1) (22.9) (20.7) 1.6 58.4 (39.8) 31.8 (29.7) (80.3)

Powerlong 1238 HK 9.8 10.5 14.1 54.9 62.7 47.8 47.3 57.2 73.8 (34.3) 50.5 39.0 66.2 (18.7) 68.8 2.9 n.a.

Road King 1098 HK 1.8 0.8 (5.0) 1.2 4.3 3.2 6.3 4.2 (11.2) (11.7) 3.1 (4.6) 109.3 3.6 8.2 (34.4) (39.6)

Ronshine China 3301 HK 0.0 2.2 0.4 (2.7) 0.0 (3.4) (8.2) 0.9 (30.4) n.a. n.a. n.a. 54.5 6.0 16.9 (49.7) n.a.

Shui On Land 272 HK 7.4 7.4 7.4 12.1 14.0 18.2 22.6 20.4 (0.8) (23.1) 16.4 (21.6) 29.3 (19.4) (1.7) (36.8) (86.8)

SOHO China 410 HK (0.4) (2.1) (8.5) (2.1) 0.4 0.9 7.3 2.2 (36.7) (18.0) (31.4) 1.6 37.6 (38.9) 5.4 (21.4) (77.2)

Yanlord Land YLLG SP 0.0 3.2 10.3 13.3 9.4 11.3 14.3 14.3 23.1 (15.1) (3.4) 31.3 22.7 (24.7) (0.8) (7.4) (69.7)

Yuzhou Properties 1628 HK 2.7 0.4 (27.3) (20.4) (20.7) (26.4) (26.4) (19.3) (28.7) 1.0 7.7 28.6 54.4 (22.5) 32.8 (34.7) n.a.

Zhenro Properties 6158 HK (0.2) (2.9) 0.2 17.4 9.0 9.5 16.7 13.9 7.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.4 (16.6) n.a.

Zhong An 672 HK 0.0 3.9 (3.6) 31.1 31.1 17.6 21.2 25.0 66.0 (20.8) (28.9) (21.0) 187.5 (71.2) (10.6) 35.0 n.a.

Zhongliang Holdings 2772 HK (0.2) 4.8 3.4 6.6 10.3 7.9 9.8 5.8 (3.2) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. (16.3) n.a.

Average 0.9 1.5 (2.9) 5.2 7.0 2.4 2.3 6.3 11.5 (11.2) 3.5 (5.5) 62.7 (27.0) 26.8 (11.0) (28.9)

Average (Overall) 0.4 0.5 (2.1) 6.3 8.4 2.8 5.2 7.6 9.7 (7.4) 10.6 (5.5) 95.8 (16.7) 35.2 (15.1) (21.3)

Industry Focus


Page 17

Discount to NAV

Sector average (DBS coverage only) Agile Property (3383 HK)

Central China (832 HK) China Aoyuan (3883 HK)

China Jinmao Holdings (817 HK) China Overseas (688 HK)

Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS HK

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

Oct

-06

Oct

-08

No

v-1

0

No

v-1

2

De

c-1

4

De

c-1

6

Jan

-19

Feb

-21

%

+2SD: -16.8%

+1SD: -29.9%

Mean: -42.9%

-1SD: -56%

-2SD: -69.1%(100)

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

Jul-

08

Jan

-10

Au

g-1

1

Ma

r-1

3

Oct

-14

Ma

y-1

6

De

c-1

7

Jul-

19

Feb

-21

%

+1SD -36.7%

Avg: -53.5%

-1SD -70.4%

(100)

(90)

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

Jan

-09

Jul-

10

Jan

-12

Jul-

13

Jan

-15

Jul-

16

Jan

-18

Au

g-1

9

Feb

-21

%

Avg: -63.8%

+1SD -51.7%

-1SD -75.8%

(70)

(68)

(66)

(64)

(62)

(60)

(58)

(56)

(54)

(52)

(50)

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Se

p-2

0

Oct

-20

De

c-2

0

Jan

-21

Ma

r-2

1

%

Avg: -62.8%

+1SD -60%

-1SD -65.6%

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

No

v-0

9

No

v-1

0

Oct

-11

Se

p-1

2

Au

g-1

3

Jul-

14

Jul-

15

Jun

-16

Ma

y-1

7

Ap

r-1

8

Ma

r-1

9

Ma

r-2

0

Feb

-21

%

+1SD -38.9%

Avg: -48.8%

-1SD -58.7%

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

Jan

-05

Feb

-06

Ma

r-0

7

Ma

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ma

y-1

0

Jun

-11

Jul-

12

Au

g-1

3

Se

p-1

4

Oct

-15

No

v-1

6

De

c-1

7

De

c-1

8

Jan

-20

Feb

-21

%

+1SD -2.6%

Avg: -18.7%

-1SD -34.7%

Industry Focus


Page 18

Discount to NAV (continued)

COGO (81 HK) CR Land (1109 HK)

China Vanke (2202 HK) Country Garden (2007 HK)

Evergrande (3333 HK) LVGEM (95 HK)


(90)

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

Jan

-10

Au

g-1

1

Ma

r-1

3

Oct

-14

Ma

y-1

6

De

c-1

7

Jul-

19

Feb

-21

%

+1SD -41.9%

Avg: -56.2%

-1SD -70.6%

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

Jan

-05

Ma

y-0

6

Se

p-0

7

Jan

-09

Ma

y-1

0

Se

p-1

1

Jan

-13

Ma

y-1

4

Se

p-1

5

Jan

-17

Jun

-18

Oct

-19

Feb

-21

%

+1SD -18.8%

Avg: -30.8%

-1SD -42.8%

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jun

-15

Ma

y-1

6

Ma

y-1

7

Ap

r-1

8

Ma

r-1

9

Feb

-20

Feb

-21

%

+1SD -2.9%

Avg: -17.9%

-1SD -32.8%

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

Jan

-09

Jan

-11

Jan

-13

Jan

-15

Feb

-17

Feb

-19

Feb

-21

%

+1SD -24.9%

Avg: -37.8%

-1SD -50.6%

(100)

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

No

v-0

9

No

v-1

0

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

2

De

c-1

3

De

c-1

4

Jan

-16

Jan

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-19

Feb

-20

Feb

-21

%

+1SD -29.2%

Avg: -48.5%

-1SD -67.7%

(85)

(84)

(83)

(82)

(81)

(80)

(79)

(78)

(77)

(76)

Jun

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Au

g-2

0

Se

p-2

0

Oct

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

De

c-2

0

De

c-2

0

Jan

-21

Jan

-21

Feb

-21

Ma

r-2

1

Ma

r-2

1

%

Avg: -82%

+1SD -80.7%

-1SD -83.4%

Industry Focus


Page 19


Logan (3380 HK) Longfor (960 HK)

Shimao Property (813 HK) SOHO China (410 HK)

Sunac (1918 HK) Yuexiu Property (123 HK)


(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

No

v-1

7

Ap

r-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Feb

-19

Jun

-19

No

v-1

9

Ap

r-2

0

Se

p-2

0

Feb

-21

%

+1SD -33.6%

Avg: -46.5%

-1SD -59.4%

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan

-17

No

v-1

7

Au

g-1

8

Jun

-19

Ap

r-2

0

Jan

-21

%

Avg: -20.9%

+1SD -1.5%

-1SD -40.3%

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

Ma

r-0

7

Se

p-0

8

Ap

r-1

0

Oct

-11

Ma

y-1

3

No

v-1

4

Jun

-16

Jan

-18

Jul-

19

Feb

-21

%

+1SD -27.5%

Avg: -42.5%

-1SD -57.4%

(100)

(90)

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

Oct

-06

De

c-0

7

Feb

-09

Ap

r-1

0

Jul-

11

Se

p-1

2

No

v-1

3

Jan

-15

Ma

r-1

6

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

8

Oct

-19

De

c-2

0

%

+1SD -50%

Avg: -60%

-1SD -70%

(46.0)

(44.0)

(42.0)

(40.0)

(38.0)

(36.0)

(34.0)

(32.0)

(30.0)

4-F

eb

-21

14

-Fe

b-2

1

24

-Fe

b-2

1

6-M

ar-

21

16

-Ma

r-2

1

26

-Ma

r-2

1

5-A

pr-

21

%

Avg: -39.6%

+1SD -36.8%

-1SD -42.3%

(70)

(65)

(60)

(55)

(50)

(45)

(40)

(35)

Feb

-13

Jun

-14

Oct

-15

Feb

-17

Jun

-18

Oct

-19

Feb

-21

%

+1SD -49.7%

Avg: -55.5%

-1SD -61.3%

Industry Focus


Page 20


Yanlord Land (YLLG SP) Yuzhou (1628 HK)


(100)

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

Oct

-07

Ma

r-0

9

Se

p-1

0

Ma

r-1

2

Se

p-1

3

Ma

r-1

5

Au

g-1

6

Feb

-18

Au

g-1

9

Feb

-21

%

+1SD -25.5%

Avg: -45.9%

-1SD -66.2%

(80)

(75)

(70)

(65)

(60)

(55)

(50)

(45)

(40)

(35)

(30)

Ma

r-1

8

Jul-

18

Oct

-18

Feb

-19

Ma

y-1

9

Se

p-1

9

De

c-1

9

Ap

r-2

0

Jul-

20

No

v-2

0

Feb

-21

%

+1SD -48.1%

Avg: -57.1%

-1SD -66.1%

Industry Focus


Page 21

PE charts

Sector average Agile Property (3383 HK)




(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan

-05

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-16

Feb

-17

Feb

-18

Feb

-19

Feb

-20

Feb

-21

x

+2SD: 18.9x

+1SD: 13.4x

Mean: 7.9x

-1SD: 2.5x

-2SD: -3.0x 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

De

c-0

5

De

c-0

6

De

c-0

7

De

c-0

8

De

c-0

9

De

c-1

0

De

c-1

1

De

c-1

2

De

c-1

3

De

c-1

4

De

c-1

5

De

c-1

6

De

c-1

7

De

c-1

8

De

c-1

9

De

c-2

0

De

c-2

1

x

Avg: 6x

+1SD: 8.3x

-1SD: 3.7x

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jun

-08

Oct

-09

Feb

-11

Jun

-12

Oct

-13

Feb

-15

Jun

-16

Oct

-17

Feb

-19

Jun

-20

Oct

-21

x

Avg: 5.2x

+1SD: 6.5x

-1SD: 4x

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

De

c-0

8

De

c-0

9

De

c-1

0

De

c-1

1

De

c-1

2

De

c-1

3

De

c-1

4

De

c-1

5

De

c-1

6

De

c-1

7

De

c-1

8

De

c-1

9

De

c-2

0

De

c-2

1

x

Avg: 4.6x

+1SD: 6.7x

-1SD: 2.5x

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Au

g-0

7

Jan

-09

Jun

-10

No

v-1

1

Ap

r-1

3

Se

p-1

4

Feb

-16

Jul-

17

De

c-1

8

Ma

y-2

0

Oct

-21

x

Avg: 9x

+1SD: 13.5x

-1SD: 4.4x

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Feb

-05

Ma

r-0

6

Ma

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ma

y-0

9

Ma

y-1

0

Jun

-11

Jul-

12

Jul-

13

Au

g-1

4

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

6

Oct

-17

Oct

-18

No

v-1

9

De

c-2

0

De

c-2

1

x

Avg: 8.7x

+1SD: 13.2x

-1SD: 4.1x

Industry Focus


Page 22

PE charts (continued)


China Evergrande (3333 HK) China Vanke (2202 HK)

Country Garden (2007 HK) Logan Property (3380 HK)


-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jan

-99

Jan

-01

De

c-0

2

De

c-0

4

De

c-0

6

De

c-0

8

De

c-1

0

De

c-1

2

De

c-1

4

De

c-1

6

De

c-1

8

De

c-2

0

x

Avg: 7x

+1SD: 16.4x

-1SD: -2.5x

190x (Dec-07)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

De

c-0

4

De

c-0

6

De

c-0

8

De

c-1

0

De

c-1

2

De

c-1

4

De

c-1

6

De

c-1

8

De

c-2

0

x

Avg: 10.2x

+1SD: 16.7x

-1SD: 3.8x

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

No

v-0

9

No

v-1

0

No

v-1

1

No

v-1

2

No

v-1

3

No

v-1

4

No

v-1

5

No

v-1

6

No

v-1

7

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

9

De

c-2

0

De

c-2

1

x

Avg: 7.2x

+1SD: 12.3x

-1SD: 2.2x

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan

-99

Jun

-00

De

c-0

1

Ma

y-0

3

No

v-0

4

Ap

r-0

6

Oct

-07

Ma

r-0

9

Se

p-1

0

Ma

r-1

2

Au

g-1

3

Feb

-15

Jul-

16

Jan

-18

Jun

-19

De

c-2

0

x

Avg: 8.9x

+1SD: 13.4x

-1SD: 4.4x

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jan

-10

Ma

y-1

1

Se

p-1

2

Feb

-14

Jun

-15

No

v-1

6

Ma

r-1

8

Au

g-1

9

De

c-2

0

x

Avg: 5.8x

+1SD: 7.1x

-1SD: 4.4x

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

De

c-1

3

Feb

-15

Ap

r-1

6

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

8

Oct

-19

De

c-2

0

x

Avg: 4x

+1SD: 5x

-1SD: 3x

Industry Focus


Page 23


Longfor (960 HK) LVGEM (95 HK)




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

No

v-0

9

De

c-1

0

Feb

-12

Ma

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Jun

-15

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-18

No

v-1

9

De

c-2

0

x

Avg: 6.8x

+1SD: 8.3x

-1SD: 5.3x

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

De

c-0

5

Jan

-07

Ma

r-0

8

Ma

y-0

9

Jul-

10

Se

p-1

1

No

v-1

2

Jan

-14

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

6

Jul-

17

Se

p-1

8

No

v-1

9

Jan

-21

x

Avg: 14.2x

+1SD: 24.5x

-1SD: 4x

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jan

-08

Ma

r-0

9

Ma

y-1

0

Jul-

11

Se

p-1

2

No

v-1

3

Jan

-15

Ma

r-1

6

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

8

Oct

-19

De

c-2

0

x

Avg: 6.9x+1SD: 12.1x

-1SD: 1.7x 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Oct

-07

Au

g-0

9

Jul-

11

Ma

y-1

3

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

r-1

7

Jan

-19

De

c-2

0

x

Avg: 11x

+1SD: 21.8x

-1SD: 0.2x

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Oct

-10

Feb

-12

Jun

-13

Oct

-14

Feb

-16

Jun

-17

Oct

-18

Feb

-20

Jun

-21

x

Avg: 4.2x

+1SD: 5.8x

-1SD: 2.5x0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan

-03

Au

g-0

6

Ma

r-1

0

Oct

-13

Ma

y-1

7

De

c-2

0

x

Avg: 7.3x

+1SD: 11.8x

-1SD: 2.7x

Industry Focus


Page 24


Yanlord (YLLG SP) Yuzhou Properties (1628 HK)


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jun

-06

Se

p-0

7

No

v-0

8

Feb

-10

Ap

r-1

1

Jun

-12

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

4

Feb

-16

Ap

r-1

7

Jul-

18

Se

p-1

9

De

c-2

0

x

Avg: 8.1x

+1SD: 13.5x

-1SD: 2.7x

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

No

v-0

9

Se

p-1

1

Jul-

13

Ma

y-1

5

Ma

r-1

7

Jan

-19

No

v-2

0

x

Avg: 11.2x

+1SD: 91.8x

-1SD: -69.4x

Industry Focus


Page 25

PB charts

Sector average Agile Property (3383 HK)




(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Jan

-05

Jun

-06

No

v-0

7

Ma

y-0

9

Oct

-10

Ap

r-1

2

Se

p-1

3

Feb

-15

Au

g-1

6

Jan

-18

Jun

-19

De

c-2

0

x

+2SD: 2.1x

+1SD: 1.6x

Mean: 1.1x

-1SD: 0.5x

-2SD: 0.0x 0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

De

c-0

5

De

c-0

6

De

c-0

7

De

c-0

8

De

c-0

9

De

c-1

0

De

c-1

1

De

c-1

2

De

c-1

3

De

c-1

4

De

c-1

5

De

c-1

6

De

c-1

7

De

c-1

8

De

c-1

9

De

c-2

0

De

c-2

1

x

Avg: 1.1x

+1SD: 1.9x

-1SD: 0.3x

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Jun

-08

Jun

-09

Jul-

10

Jul-

11

Au

g-1

2

Au

g-1

3

Se

p-1

4

Se

p-1

5

Oct

-16

Oct

-17

No

v-1

8

No

v-1

9

De

c-2

0

De

c-2

1

x

Avg: 0.8x

+1SD: 1x

-1SD: 0.5x

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

De

c-0

8

De

c-0

9

De

c-1

0

De

c-1

1

De

c-1

2

De

c-1

3

De

c-1

4

De

c-1

5

De

c-1

6

De

c-1

7

De

c-1

8

De

c-1

9

De

c-2

0

De

c-2

1

x

Avg: 0.6x

+1SD: 0.9x

-1SD: 0.3x

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Au

g-0

7

De

c-0

8

Ap

r-1

0

Au

g-1

1

De

c-1

2

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

6

Ap

r-1

8

Au

g-1

9

De

c-2

0

x

Avg: 1x

+1SD: 1.4x

-1SD: 0.6x

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Feb

-05

Ma

r-0

6

Ma

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ma

y-0

9

Ma

y-1

0

Jun

-11

Jul-

12

Jul-

13

Au

g-1

4

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

6

Oct

-17

Oct

-18

No

v-1

9

De

c-2

0

De

c-2

1

x

Avg: 1.5x

+1SD: 2.3x

-1SD: 0.8x

Industry Focus


Page 26

PB charts (continued)


China Evergrande (3333 HK) China Vanke (2202 HK)

Country Garden (2007 HK) Logan Property (3380 HK)


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan

-99

Jan

-01

De

c-0

2

De

c-0

4

De

c-0

6

De

c-0

8

De

c-1

0

De

c-1

2

De

c-1

4

De

c-1

6

De

c-1

8

De

c-2

0

x

Avg: 0.7x

+1SD: 1.3x

-1SD: 0.2x

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

De

c-0

4

De

c-0

6

De

c-0

8

De

c-1

0

De

c-1

2

De

c-1

4

De

c-1

6

De

c-1

8

De

c-2

0

x

Avg: 1.2x

+1SD: 1.6x

-1SD: 0.8x

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

No

v-0

9

No

v-1

0

No

v-1

1

No

v-1

2

No

v-1

3

No

v-1

4

No

v-1

5

No

v-1

6

No

v-1

7

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

9

De

c-2

0

De

c-2

1

x

Avg: 1.3x

+1SD: 1.8x

-1SD: 0.8x

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Jan

-99

Jun

-00

De

c-0

1

Ma

y-0

3

No

v-0

4

Ap

r-0

6

Oct

-07

Ma

r-0

9

Se

p-1

0

Ma

r-1

2

Au

g-1

3

Feb

-15

Jul-

16

Jan

-18

Jun

-19

De

c-2

0

x

Avg: 1.4x

+1SD: 2x

-1SD: 0.8x

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan

-10

Ma

y-1

1

Se

p-1

2

Feb

-14

Jun

-15

No

v-1

6

Ma

r-1

8

Au

g-1

9

De

c-2

0

x

Avg: 1.2x

+1SD: 1.5x

-1SD: 0.8x

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

De

c-1

3

Feb

-15

Ap

r-1

6

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

8

Oct

-19

De

c-2

0

x

Avg: 1.1x

+1SD: 1.5x

-1SD: 0.7x

Industry Focus


Page 27


Longfor (960 HK) LVGEM (95 HK)




0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

No

v-0

9

De

c-1

0

Feb

-12

Ma

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Jun

-15

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-18

No

v-1

9

De

c-2

0

x

Avg: 1.4x

+1SD: 1.8x

-1SD: 1x

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

De

c-0

5

Jan

-07

Ma

r-0

8

Ma

y-0

9

Jul-

10

Se

p-1

1

No

v-1

2

Jan

-14

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

6

Jul-

17

Se

p-1

8

No

v-1

9

Jan

-21

x

Avg: 1.3x

+1SD: 2.5x

-1SD: 0.1x

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan

-08

Ma

r-0

9

Ma

y-1

0

Jul-

11

Se

p-1

2

No

v-1

3

Jan

-15

Ma

r-1

6

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

8

Oct

-19

De

c-2

0

x

Avg: 0.9x

+1SD: 1.3x

-1SD: 0.6x

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Oct

-07

Au

g-0

9

Jul-

11

Ma

y-1

3

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

r-1

7

Jan

-19

De

c-2

0

x

Avg: 0.6x

+1SD: 1x

-1SD: 0.3x

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Oct

-10

Feb

-12

Jun

-13

Oct

-14

Feb

-16

Jun

-17

Oct

-18

Feb

-20

Jun

-21

x

Avg: 1x

+1SD: 1.4x

-1SD: 0.6x

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jan

-03

Au

g-0

6

Ma

r-1

0

Oct

-13

Ma

y-1

7

De

c-2

0

x

Avg: 0.6x

+1SD: 0.8x

-1SD: 0.4x

Industry Focus


Page 28


Yanlord (YLLG SP) Yuzhou Properties (1628 HK)


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Jun

-06

Se

p-0

7

No

v-0

8

Feb

-10

Ap

r-1

1

Jun

-12

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

4

Feb

-16

Ap

r-1

7

Jul-

18

Se

p-1

9

De

c-2

0

x

Avg: 1x

+1SD: 1.7x

-1SD: 0.2x0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

No

v-0

9

Se

p-1

1

Jul-

13

Ma

y-1

5

Ma

r-1

7

Jan

-19

No

v-2

0

x

Avg: 0.7x

+1SD: 0.9x

-1SD: 0.6x

Industry Focus


Page 29

DBS HK recommendations are based on an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:

STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)

BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)

HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps)

FULLY VALUED (negative total return, i.e., > -10% over the next 12 months)

SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)

*Share price appreciation + dividends

Completed Date: 19 Apr 2021 10:50:25 (HKT)

Dissemination Date: 19 Apr 2021 11:09:44 (HKT) Sources for all charts and tables are DBS HK unless otherwise specified. GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER This report is prepared by DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (“DBS HK”). This report is solely intended for the clients of DBS Bank Ltd., DBS HK,

DBS Vickers (Hong Kong) Limited (“DBSV HK”), and DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd. (“DBSVS”), its respective connected and

associated corporations and affiliates only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any

means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBS HK. The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to

DBS Bank Ltd., DBS HK, DBSV HK, DBSVS, its respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates and their respective directors,

officers, employees and agents (collectively, the “DBS Group”) have not conducted due diligence on any of the companies, verified any

information or sources or taken into account any other factors which we may consider to be relevant or appropriate in preparing the

research. Accordingly, we do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the research set

out in this report. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation. Any

recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the

particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for

the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate independent legal or financial advice. The DBS Group accepts no

liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect and/or consequential loss (including any claims for loss of profit) arising from any use of and/or

reliance upon this document and/or further communication given in relation to this document. This document is not to be construed as an

offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The DBS Group, along with its affiliates and/or persons associated with any of

them may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this document. The DBS Group, may have positions in, and may

effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking

services for these companies. Any valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report, and

there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or

risk assessments. The information in this document is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete

or condensed, it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report and the DBS

Group is under no obligation to update the information in this report. This publication has not been reviewed or authorized by any regulatory authority in Singapore, Hong Kong or elsewhere. There is no

planned schedule or frequency for updating research publication relating to any issuer. The valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described in this report were based upon a number of estimates

and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. It can be expected that one or more of the

estimates on which the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments were based will not materialize or will vary

significantly from actual results. Therefore, the inclusion of the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments

described herein IS NOT TO BE RELIED UPON as a representation and/or warranty by the DBS Group (and/or any persons associated with

the aforesaid entities), that:

(a) such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments or their underlying assumptions will be achieved, and

(b) there is any assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings

or risk assessments stated therein. Please contact the primary analyst for valuation methodologies and assumptions associated with the covered companies or price targets.

Any assumptions made in this report that refers to commodities, are for the purposes of making forecasts for the company (or companies)

mentioned herein. They are not to be construed as recommendations to trade in the physical commodity or in the futures contract relating

to the commodity referred to in this report. DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc (“DBSVUSA”), a US-registered broker-dealer, does not have its own investment banking or research

department, has not participated in any public offering of securities as a manager or co-manager or in any other investment banking

transaction in the past twelve months and does not engage in market-making.

Industry Focus


Page 30

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the

companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst(s) also certifies that no part of

his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. The

research analyst (s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that he or his associate1 does

not serve as an officer of the issuer or the new listing applicant (which includes in the case of a real estate investment trust, an officer of the

management company of the real estate investment trust; and in the case of any other entity, an officer or its equivalent counterparty of the

entity who is responsible for the management of the issuer or the new listing applicant) and the research analyst(s) primarily responsible for

the content of this research report or his associate does not have financial interests2 in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant that

the analyst reviews. DBS Group has procedures in place to eliminate, avoid and manage any potential conflicts of interests that may arise in

connection with the production of research reports. The research analyst(s) responsible for this report operates as part of a separate and

independent team to the investment banking function of the DBS Group and procedures are in place to ensure that confidential

information held by either the research or investment banking function is handled appropriately. There is no direct link of DBS Group's

compensation to any specific investment banking function of the DBS Group.

COMPANY-SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

1. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK, DBSVS or their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates have proprietary positions in China Overseas Land &

Investment Ltd (688 HK), China Resources Land Ltd (1109 HK), China Vanke Co Ltd (2202 HK), Country Garden Holdings Co Ltd

(2007 HK), China Evergrande Group (3333 HK), Longfor Group Holdings Ltd (960 HK), Shimao Group Holdings Ltd (813 HK),

Sunac China Holdings Ltd (1918 HK), Agile Group Holdings Ltd (3383 HK), Guangzhou R&F Properties Co Ltd (2777 HK) and Sino-

Ocean Group Holding Ltd (3377 HK) recommended in this report as of 14 Apr 2021.

DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK, DBSVS or their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates have a proprietary position in Yanlord Land Group

Limited (YLLG SP) recommended in this report as of 31 Mar 2021.

2. Neither DBS Bank Ltd nor DBS HK market makes in equity securities of the issuer(s) or company(ies) mentioned in this Research

Report.

3. Compensation for investment banking services:

DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK, DBSVS, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA have received compensation, within the

past 12 months for investment banking services from China Aoyuan Group Ltd (3883 HK), China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd

(817 HK), Yuexiu Property Co Ltd (123 HK), Central China Real Estate Ltd (832 HK), China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Ltd (81

HK), Greentown China Holdings Ltd (3900 HK) and Hopson Development Holdings Ltd (754 HK) as of 31 Mar 2021.

4. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK, DBSVS, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA have managed or co-managed a public

offering of securities for China Aoyuan Group Ltd (3883 HK), Yuexiu Property Co Ltd (123 HK), Central China Real Estate Ltd (832

HK), China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Ltd (81 HK), Greentown China Holdings Ltd (3900 HK), Hopson Development

Holdings Ltd (754 HK) and LVGEM China Real Estate Investment Co Ltd (95 HK) in the past 12 months, as of 31 Mar 2021.

DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any public offering of

securities as a manager or co-manager or in any other investment banking transaction in the past twelve months. Any US

persons wishing to obtain further information, including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a

transaction in any security discussed in this document should contact DBSVUSA exclusively.

1 An associate is defined as (i) the spouse, or any minor child (natural or adopted) or minor step-child, of the analyst; (ii) the trustee of a trust

of which the analyst, his spouse, minor child (natural or adopted) or minor step-child, is a beneficiary or discretionary object; or (iii) another

person accustomed or obliged to act in accordance with the directions or instructions of the analyst.

2 Financial interest is defined as interests that are commonly known financial interest, such as investment in the securities in respect of an

issuer or a new listing applicant, or financial accommodation arrangement between the issuer or the new listing applicant and the firm or

analysis. This term does not include commercial lending conducted at arm's length, or investments in any collective investment scheme

other than an issuer or new listing applicant notwithstanding the fact that the scheme has investments in securities in respect of an issuer

or a new listing applicant.

Industry Focus


Page 31

5. Disclosure of previous investment recommendation produced:

DBS Bank Ltd, DBSVS, DBS HK, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA may have published other investment

recommendations in respect of the same securities / instruments recommended in this research report during the preceding

12 months. Please contact the primary analyst listed in the first page of this report to view previous investment

recommendations published by DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK, DBSVS, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA in the

preceding 12 months.

Industry Focus


Page 32

RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION

General This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident

of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use

would be contrary to law or regulation.

Australia This report is being distributed in Australia by DBS Bank Ltd, DBSVS or DBSV HK. DBS Bank Ltd holds Australian

Financial Services Licence no. 475946.

DBSVS and DBSV HK are exempted from the requirement to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence under the

Corporation Act 2001 (“CA”) in respect of financial services provided to the recipients. Both DBS Bank Ltd and DBSVS

are regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the laws of Singapore, and DBSV HK is regulated by the

Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission under the laws of Hong Kong, which differ from Australian laws.

Distribution of this report is intended only for “wholesale investors” within the meaning of the CA.

Hong Kong This report is being distributed in Hong Kong by DBS Bank Ltd, DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited and DBS Vickers (Hong

Kong) Limited, all of which are registered with or licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to

carry out the regulated activity of advising on securities. DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch is a limited liability

company incorporated in Singapore.

Indonesia This report is being distributed in Indonesia by PT DBS Vickers Sekuritas Indonesia.

Malaysia This report is distributed in Malaysia by AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd ("ADBSR"). Recipients of this report, received

from ADBSR are to contact the undersigned at 603-2604 3333 in respect of any matters arising from or in connection

with this report. In addition to the General Disclosure/Disclaimer found at the preceding page, recipients of this report

are advised that ADBSR (the preparer of this report), its holding company Alliance Investment Bank Berhad, their

respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates, their directors, officers, employees, agents and parties

related or associated with any of them may have positions in, and may effect transactions in the securities mentioned

herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services

for the subject companies. They may also have received compensation and/or seek to obtain compensation for

broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services from the subject companies.

Wong Ming Tek, Executive Director, ADBSR

Singapore This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) or DBSVS (Company Regn

No. 198600294G), both of which are Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated

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contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS

Bank Ltd at 6327 2288 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

Thailand This report is being distributed in Thailand by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd.

United

Kingdom

This report is produced by DBS HK which is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority This report is disseminated in the United Kingdom by DBS Vickers Securities (UK) Ltd (“DBSVUK”). DBSVUK is

authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom. In respect of the United Kingdom, this report is solely intended for the clients of DBSVUK, its respective connected and

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Dubai

International

Financial

Centre

This research report is being distributed by DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) having its office at units 608-610, 6th Floor,

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DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) is regulated by The Dubai Financial Services Authority. This research report is intended

only for professional clients (as defined in the DFSA rulebook) and no other person may act upon it.

Industry Focus


Page 33

United Arab

Emirates

This report is provided by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is an Exempt Financial Adviser as

defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This report is for

information purposes only and should not be relied upon or acted on by the recipient or considered as a solicitation

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redistributed without our written consent.

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Other

jurisdictions

In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is intended only for qualified,

professional, institutional or sophisticated investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such jurisdictions.

DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited

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Tel: (852) 3668-4181, Fax: (852) 2521-1812

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Page 34

DBS Regional Research Offices

HONG KONG

DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Ltd

Contact: Carol Wu

13th Floor One Island East,

18 Westlands Road, Quarry Bay, Hong Kong

Tel: 852 3668 4181

Fax: 852 2521 1812

e-mail: [email protected]

MALAYSIA

AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd

Contact: Wong Ming Tek (128540 U)

19th Floor, Menara Multi-Purpose, Capital Square,

8 Jalan Munshi Abdullah 50100, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Tel.: 603 2604 3333

Fax: 603 2604 3921


Co. Regn No. 198401015984 (128540-U)

SINGAPORE

DBS Bank Ltd

Contact: Janice Chua

12 Marina Boulevard,

Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3

Singapore 018982

Tel: 65 6878 8888


Company Regn. No. 196800306E

INDONESIA

PT DBS Vickers Sekuritas (Indonesia)

Contact: Maynard Priajaya Arif

DBS Bank Tower

Ciputra World 1, 32/F

Jl. Prof. Dr. Satrio Kav. 3-5

Jakarta 12940, Indonesia

Tel: 62 21 3003 4900

Fax: 6221 3003 4943


THAILAND

DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd

Contact: Chanpen Sirithanarattanakul

989 Siam Piwat Tower Building,

9th, 14th-15th Floor

Rama 1 Road, Pathumwan,

Bangkok Thailand 10330

Tel. 66 2 857 7831

Fax: 66 2 658 1269


Company Regn. No 0105539127012

Securities and Exchange Commission, Thailand

Documents

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