Upload
others
View
5
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Title line 1China Boxboard Market:Title line 1Title line 2Digging One Layer Deeper
NameTitle, date
Han Yao, Economist, Asian Paper PackagingBeijing Office, RISI Asia
J 3 2015June 3, 2015
1 © Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information1
Today’s Agenda
• An Overview of China Boxboard IndustryAn Overview of China Boxboard Industry
• Boxboard Grade Definitions
• Market Structure: Digging One Layer Deeper
M j E d U d S b G d A l i & F t• Major End Uses and Sub-Grades: Analysis & Forecast
• Competitive Landscapes and Regional Cost Comparisong
• China Boxboard Industry Outlook and Trade Implications
2 © Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information
Chinese Boxboard Demand and Supply Have Become More Unbalanced, Leading to Serious Trade Implications
3.0
Demand Capacity
p
2.0
2.5
onne
s
Demand Capacity
1.5
Mill
ion
To
1.0
Gro
wth
, M
0 0
0.5
0.02007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015F 2016F
© Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information3
China Total Boxboard Trade Dynamics, 2007-20142,000
Total Exports
Total Imports
1,500p
1,000
500
02007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E
4 © Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information
Boxboard Grade Definitions Used in the China Boxboard Study
Cigarette
烟卡Liquid Packaging
Board
液体包装纸板
Virgin Cartonboard
FBB/SBS (Ivoryboard)
白卡纸
Food Grades
食品卡
液体包装纸板
Cupstock/Food Service
纸杯原纸/食品盒Commercial PackagingUnbleached
Total Boxboard
白纸板
g g
社会卡未漂白SUB/CUK
Greyback
灰底白白纸板
Coated Recycled Board
WLC(Coated Duplex)
涂布再生白板纸
灰底白
Whiteback
白底白
Recycled Boxboard Other
Uncoated Recycled Board
5 © Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information
China Boxboard Demand Growth Trends, 2007-2014
10%
12%
8%
6%
2%
4%
0%
2%
200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E
Ivoryboard (Virgin Grades) Recycled Boxboard (Including WLC)
© Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E
The coated duplex grades were the initial focus of China's expansion wave, but the focus has shifted to the virgin gradesg g
4 0
4.5
Virgin Cartonboard
3 0
3.5
4.0 Virgin Cartonboard
Recycled Boxboard
2 0
2.5
3.0
1 0
1.5
2.0
0 0
0.5
1.0
0.02010-2012 2013-2015
© Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information7
Chinese Boxboard Export Trend by Grade
1 000
800
900
1,000
Virgin Cartonboard
Recycled Boxboard
600
700
800
d To
nnes
400
500
600
Thou
sand
200
300
400
Gro
wth
, T
0
100
200
02009 2013
8 © Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information
China Boxboard End-Use Market Composition
(2014)
Food and Beverage Products
Dairy/Alcohol/Beverage/Food Packaging/Food Service
( )
30%22%
Other Non‐Durable Goods
Pharmaceutical/Cigarette/Cosmetics
27%
19%
2%
Total Boxboard Durable GoodsGarment/Footwear/ToysPaper Bags/Appliance
Food and Beverage Products
N D bl G dArticles for Culture &
PrintingPrint & PublishPlaying Cards
Non‐Durable Goods
Durable Goods
Articles for Culture & Printing
OthersOther Sectors
Others
9 © Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information
Chinese Boxboard Consumption by Sub-Grade for 15 End-Use Sectors, 2013Share of Total Demand
Packaged Food
Food Service
Cosmetics/Toiletries
Printing & Publishing
Paper Bags
FBB/SBS (Ivoryboard)
Liquid Packaging Board
T
Cigarettes
Beverage
Selected Appliances Liquid Packaging Board
Cupstock
WLC (Coated Duplex)
Alcoholic Beverages
Pharmaceuticals
Footwear
Toys
Playing Cards
Garment
Dairy
Alcoholic Beverages
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
y g
10 © Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information
The Market Structure for the Ivoryboard and Coated Duplex Board Sectors Is Different in China
Total WLC Capacity by M j P d (2013)
Total Ivoryboard Capacity by M j P d (2014E) Major Producer (2013)Major Producer (2014E)
23%30%Others, 25%
7%Others, 49%
8%
5%
7%
6%5%
3%
18%14%
8%
3%
11 © Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information
Chinese/Asian Ivoryboard Is Already Cost Competitive with European FBBMill Cash Costs, 4Q14, US Dollars/FMT, Indicated by World Region
© Copyright 2015 RISI Inc | Proprietary Information© Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information
12
N. America Oceania Africa Asia Europe Latin America
Annual Changes in Chinese Boxboard Demand and Capacity, 2007-2018Thousand Tonnes
86%
88%
2 500
3,000
80%
82%
84%
2,000
2,500
76%
78%
80%
1,000
1,500
72%
74%500
70%02007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Change in Total Demand (L) Change in Total Capacity (L)g ( ) g p y ( )Overall Operating Rate (R)
13 © Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information
Take Home Points
• China boxboard capacity has greatly outpaced demand, causing further imbalance in its internal marketcausing further imbalance in its internal market
• More than half of the 15 end-use sectors analyzed in this t d i di t l th th h th f t i dstudy indicate slower growth through the forecast period
• Virgin cartonboard will show relatively steady demand growth, but the supply surplus will exceed 2 million tonnes by 2015; thus, domestic producers will compete t i t h th i d t titito increase exports where their products are competitive
14 © Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information
Take Home Points
• Recycled boxboard demand will continue to drag down overall growth and a larger demand and supply gap willoverall growth, and a larger demand and supply gap will lead to tougher market competition for both import and export grades, and more closuresp g ,
• The changes in domestic demand and supply fundamentals (by sub-grade and end-use sector) willfundamentals (by sub-grade and end-use sector) will lead to an increase in Chinese exports and supply side rebalancingg
• Increased exports will change global trade dynamics, which is demonstrated by our trade flow and costwhich is demonstrated by our trade flow and cost analysis (China’s export main destinations, export prices and firm strategy, regional import dependence, etc.)
15 © Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information
Thank you for your attention!
China Boxboard Study For more information:
www.risi.com/chinaboxboard
Asian Paper Packaging ForecastsAsian Paper Packaging Forecastswww.risi.com/forecasts
Asian Paper and Paper Monitorwww.risi.com/appmHan Yao, RISI AsiaPhone: 86 13811064535 (Cell)
86 010 5730.6127Email: [email protected]
Office location (Beijing):RM1561 15/F Office Building A Parkview Green
16
RM1561, 15/F, Office Building A, Parkview Green, 9 Dongdaqiao Road, Chaoyang District, 100020, China
© Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information