Charting 2014 Collin County Turnout

8/10/2019 Charting 2014 Collin County Turnout

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Charting 2014 Collin County Turnout

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Over all, the national turnout was 36.3 percent; only the 1942 federal election had a lower participation rate at 33.9 percent. The reasons are likely voter apathy and negative perceptions of both political parties. Republicans ran a single-theme negative campaign against PresidentObama, and Democrats were unwilling to campaign on how much the national economy hasimproved or to point out significant achievements of Democratic policies over the six years of

Obama's presidency.

Neither party gave voters an affirmative reason to show up at the polls so Millennials didn't bother to vote , single women were a little less pro-Democratic than usual , and the racial divideamong voters remains stark . One number stands out above all others: 64 percent of older whitemen voted Republican . It's the "widest GOP advantage in this group in data since 1984,"according to ABC News.

Nationally, Democrats maintained an edge among Latinos voting in 2014 midterm elections, butin some states, Republican candidates won more than 40% of the Latino vote, according to a PewResearch Center analysis of National Election Pool exit poll data as reported by NBC News.

In the Texas race for governor, Democrat Wendy Davis won 55% of the Latino vote with 44% ofLatinos voting for Republican Greg Abbott.

Turnout for the November 2014 Texas midterm election was down by 252,662 votes, comparedto 2010 turnout numbers, even though Texas' population grew from 25.2 million in 2010 to anestimated population of 27.2 million over the last four years.

2014 voter registrations also increase by 756,208 from 13.3 million registered voters in 2010 tomore than 14 million for the November 2014 election, according to statistics from the TexasSecretary of State. Contrasting that increase in statewide voter registrations, 252,662 fewer

Texas ballots were cast in 2014, yielding a disappointing turnout rate of just 33.6 percent.

The voting age population (VAP) increased from 18,279,737 in 2010 to 19,927,498 in 2014, asestimated by the Texas Department of State Health Services . An estimated 13.5% of the TexasVAP (2,690,212) are not U.S. citizens, and an additional estimated 500,000 convicted Texasfelons are also not eligible vote.

The approximate Texas voting eligible population (VEP) for the November 2014 election was16,737,286 Texans, putting the current Texas VEP registration rate at 84 percent.

Increased voter registrations in Texas' fifteen largest counties account for 642,905 of theadditional 756,208 Texas voters registrations over 2010. In Texass five largest counties

Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, and Travis the number of people registered to vote increased by over 2% since 2012, according to figures reported by the Houston Chronicle in October.Over one third of Texans live in those five counties, which encompass the cities of Houston,Dallas, Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Austin. At the forefront of the registration push wasBattleground Texas, which become the de facto field organization of Democrat Wendy Davisscampaign for governor.

Statewide, turnout for Democratic Party candidates was down from 2010, while turnout forRepublicans Party candidates increased slightly. Greg Abbott defeated Wendy Davis by 960,378votes, according to election results reported by the Texas Secretary of State. Abbott finished with
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more raw votes and a higher percentage of the total than Gov. Rick Perry in 2010. Davis finishedwith both a lower percentage of the vote than her 2010 counterpart, Bill White, and a lower votecount.

Across nine of Texas' fifteen largest counties, turnout was down, compared to 2010. Six of

Texas' largest fifteen counties, including Collin County, managed modest gains in their overallturnout numbers.

Votes cast for Texas Governor

Although all the big Texas newspapers endorsed Democrats for Governor, Lt. Governor, StateComptroller and Attorney General, all of them lost on turnout numbers down from 2010, and

perhaps the lowest percentage turnout rates in living memory. As Rick Perry's campaign did in2010, Abbott's campaign employed social media and big data analytics to essentially holdmidterm Republican turnout even with 2010.
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Among the fifteen largest counties, Democratic turnout declined in the usual Democraticstrongholds of Harris, Dallas, Bexar, El Paso, and Cameron counties. With so much focus

placed on Wendy Davis' home court territory Tarrant County, turnout was up in that county.Turnout also increased in the Democratic stronghold of Travis County. In Collin, Denton andWilliamson Counties, regarded as Republican strongholds, the combined efforts of Democratic

Party candidates and County Party campaigns generated a slight increase in turnout forDemocrats. Davis bettered Bill White's 2010 vote count in only 13 counties: Brooks, Collin,Denton, Duval, Haskell, Hidalgo, Kinney, Refugio, Schleicher, Starr, Tarrant, Travis, andWilliamson. (Ful l li st of counti es at bottom of ar ticle)

Abbott's 2014 Collin County improvement over Perry's 2010 performance appears moreimpressive than it actually is because Perry significantly under performed other Republicans onthe 2010 Collin County ballot. In 2010, the Republican candidate for Lt. Governor, DavidDewhurst, received almost 110k votes. Using Dewhurst's 2010 vote tally for comparison of 2014Republican performance reduces Abbot's 2014 gain in Collin County to just slightly more than6k votes.

Collin County cities lead Texas and the nation in population growth with a population increaseof more than 61 percent since the 2000 Census. Collin County continues to grow at one of thefastest rates in the U.S., gaining almost 100 new residents every day.

According to U.S. Census Bureau population estimates for this year, Collin County cities rank inthe top 15 fastest- growing large cities in the nation. Eight of the ten fastest-growing cities in

North Texas are in Collin County, with growth rates averaging more than 250 percent. The 2010census pegged Collin County,'s population at 782,000 residents. The population estimate for2014 is 916,097, including 666,050 voting age persons. By the 2016 general election, the
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population is estimated to increase to 990,954 residents, including 729,430 voting age persons.(Population estimates from Texas Department of State Health Services )

Collin County's high population growth is reflected in voter registration numbers over the lastquarter century, as shown in the chart below. Note that the popularity of early voting has

steadily increased over those years with a majority of voters now preferring to vote early.Election Day turnout between presidential and midterm election years now varies little, withalmost all the turnout variability between presidential and midterm years moving to early voting.Unfortunately, midterm turnout rates over most of the past 25 years has been stuck at or under 40

percent.

For the 2014 election, Collin County had 489,032 registered voters, an increase of 64,360 over2010 registrations, out of an estimated 2014 VAP of 666,050 adults. Using the VAP number,Collin County had a registration rate of 73.4 percent. But an estimated 12 percent of the county'sVAP are not voting eligible citizens, and the county has about 10k felons who are also noteligible to vote. That reduce the county's voting eligible population to 576,124 adults, yielding a

registration rate of 85 percent.
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As the chart shows, registration rates are weakest in the younger age groups and strongest in theoldest age groups. As usual, midterm election results were determined by the older generations

because younger voters of every demographic group did not bother to vote. While efforts ofBattleground Texas and other groups and candidates to register voters paid off with 39,605 newvoters added the county poll book during 2014, only 18 percent of those newly registered votersvoted.

While exit polling data isn't available for Collin County, it is likely demographic results aresimilar to statewide results. In the Texas race for governor, Democrat Wendy Davis won 55% of
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the Latino vote with 44% of Latinos voting for Republican Greg Abbott. The following chartgives the overall demographic view for the county.

36K Hispanic Americans are registered to vote in Collin County with 3.9K affiliated with theDemocratic Party by primary vote and 2.8K affiliated with the Republican Party. 40K Asian

Americans are registered to vote in Collin County with 4.5K affiliated with the Democratic Partyand 1.7K affiliated with the Republican Party. 8,719 Hispanic Americans and 7,197 AsianAmericans voted in 2014 midterm election.

About 83k voters have voted in a Republican primary only and a little more than 52K votershave cast ballots in a Democratic Primary only. Another 12k voters have voted in both party's

primaries since 2008. Voters solidly affiliated with the Republican Party turned out at higherrates across all age groups, Republicans age 60 and older topping 80 percent turnout. Fewer
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voters have affiliated with the Democratic Party, however, a large portion of the 12k voters whohave voted in both primaries self identify as Democrats. Democratic primary ballots in CollinCounty have so few candidates, so few challengers to Republicans running for office and sorarely have contested races that some Democrats occasionally cross over to vote in Republican

primaries. That said, affiliated Democrats turned out at low lower rates than Republicans across

all age groups.

Looking at key Collin County ballot returns shows that Democratic candidates down ballot fromWendy Davis held stronger numbers, relative to past elections. Down ballot Democrats show

particular strength as compared to the Democrat at very top of the ballot, David Alameel runningfor the U.S. Senate against Republican John Cornyn. The numbers actually suggest that a fewDemocrats must of crossed over to vote for Cornyn instead of Alameel.
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46% of the total vote was straight party Republican and 18% was straight Democratic Party. 70%of the Republican vote was straight party. 56% of the Democratic vote was straight party. Voterregistrations increased 15 percent over 2010, but turnout increased only 12 percent. (Goldsteinwas the 2010 Democratic candidate for the 5th Court of Appeals and Meyers was the Republicanopponent. Molberg was the 2014 Democratic candidate for the 5th Court of Appeals andStoddart was the Republican opponent.)
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Democratic candidate Sameena Karmally ran against Republican incumbent Jodie Laubenbergfor the district 89 seat in the Texas House of Representatives. Laubenberg was unopposed in2010.
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Democratic candidate Denise Hamilton ran against Republican incumbent John Peyton forCollin County Justice of the Peace, Precinct 3, Place 2. Democratic Rey Flores ran againstPeyton in 2010.
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For comparison and preview to the 2016 election challenge, here is the November 2012 electionchart
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Targeted GOTV programs in the 8 to 12 weeks before Election Day are essential.The Collin County Democratic Party Coordinated Campaign ran those programsin 2014, including:

Road Signs at Major Intersections (Collected to reuse in 2016) Wendy / Leticia yard signs Voters Guide Newspaper and their distribution Paid Block Walk Program

Phone Bank Calling Meet the Candidates Breakfast Rally with Leticia at Collin College September Candidate Rally (600-700 guests) Targeted Web Advertising Signs placed a ED and EV polling places

The problem Democrats face is that the party organization, candidates and activist groups don'tknow the names, addresses, (cell) phone numbers, email addresses and social media sitedestinations of enough Democratic-leaning people to target for GOTV contact in this 8-12 weeksto reach a result close to 50.1% of the vote.

Getting younger voters to the polls must be a key strategy for Democratic candidates. There iscurrently no way to urge younger voters to get out and vote because the party leanings ofindividuals in younger age cohorts have not been identified through canvassing programs, andthey have no primary election voting history to indicate party affiliation. Even if party-relatedorganizations and candidates could identify those potential young voters, the only way to makecontact with them is by knocking on their front door. That is because that part of the electoratehas a cell phone mostly lifestyle and no voter information data base contains their cell number,email address, or social media site preferences.
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Democrats have about 95 weeks until early voting starts for the Nov 2016 election. Activists atthe county and neighborhood levels must work every week to identify every Democratic-leaningvoting age citizen, documenting their contact and demographic info. As Democratic leaning

people are identified, county level organizations must plan and execute programs that buildrelationships with those people to make them an active part of the Democratic base.

Those programs must be designed to invite that disconnected part of the electorate to participatein regular conversations at house and town hall meetings, and on social media. Democrats mustdo old fashioned base building work, and learn how to combine Internet and mobilecommunication with those traditional community organizing activities to accomplish thatmission.

The American conservative movement has moved public conversation steadily rightward overthe last 30 years, with far- reaching consequences for the countrys political governance. Theconservative movement has succeeded through the actions of a well-funded and well-coordinatedorganizational infrastructure that follows a long-term, disciplined communications strategy.

The conservative infrastructure provides conservative politicians with both ideas and specificlanguage for use in public statements and campaigns. It also presents these words and theassociated conservative messages to the public through multiple media, making it appear as if the

politicians are simply expressing widely accepted ideas. Thanks to their institutionalinfrastructure and its affiliated media, conservative ideology has become the dominant force in
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public discourse, and thus in American politics.

There is now widespread recognition among many Democrats that almost all of their programs,institutions, and activities are under attack by the Right, and that they have been unable, thus far,to mount an effective response. This has led to a growing awareness that Democrats must build a

political movement for the twenty-first century, with the power to fund, generate, package, anddisseminate ideas that lead society forward.

The indisputable success of the conservative infrastructure model serves as a continuingreminder that attention to marketing and communications, as well as organizationaldevelopment, with coordination and appropriate funding, can yield enormous dividends. Astrategic marketing approach by Democrats will greatly enhance the value and reach of new

policy ideas, new Democratic media channels, and growing involvement of people across alldemographic groups.

Given the conservative movements three -decade head start, Democrats must build traditional

infrastructure components in order to achieve parity. If they want to achieve dominance in themarketplace of ideas, however, they must also tap their strategic competitive advantages.Democratic advantages can be found in the creative sector, nonprofit organizations, academia,new media and the blogosphere, technology, and grassroots movements. A robust, highlyeffective progressive infrastructure will leverage these advantages.

To summarize, three elements are needed to make a progressive infrastructure work toward building a multi-racial, multi-sector movement that can achieve major advances for economicand racial justice. They are:

Deep relationships that connect people beyond the campaign of the moment;

Identify and focus on shared worldview (values, beliefs, assumptions) and vision ofDemocratic-leaning voters at the grassroots; Coordinated long-term strategy with a focus of building power and recognizing the

different roles that are needed in that strategy.

Perhaps the most important function of a political infrastructure is to provide a disciplined andcoordinated political strategy aimed at building a movement capable of exercising governing

power. The need to win immediate election victories is balanced with building power in thelong-term. This is what we call the 51%-30% understanding.

Typically people think about winning in terms of doing whatever is necessary to get 51% of thevote. However, progressive organizations also need to put resources into building a base of, say,30% of the population. That base, if it existed, would be the committed core, the constituenciesacting on the basis of a progressive worldview, promoting a progressive agenda.

Building that base is absolutely crucial to the long-run ability to be competitive election toelection, beginning with the 2016 election.

Documents

Charting 2014 Collin County Turnout