Chapter Vll

ANALYSIS OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS

Chapter Vll

ANALYSIS OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS

The range of possible impacts of improving the flow ofmaterials information and analysis to public and private decision-makers is extremely wide. This assessment focuses on five broadimpact areas judged to be most significant: Government, theeconomy, social institutions and behavior, international policy-making, and public law.

The impact analysis suggests the following conclusions:

● The potential impacts of improvement in organizationand integration of materials information systems in theFederal Government appear to be primarily beneficial,and the likely detrimental impacts in large measure areavoidable, controllable, or justifiable in the public in-terest.

● At the incremental level of improvement and change, allimpacts appear to be minimal or marginal. Benefits ap-pear to be of major or overriding significance, and costsappear to be negligible.

● At the intermediate level of improvement and change,many impacts could become significant. At this level andabove, some of the potential impacts appear to be criti-cal or of overriding importance relative to other trends insociety, the Government, and the economy. And eventhose impacts which in the short-run are marginal orminimal may assume cumulative importance over time.Overall, potential benefits are judged to substantiallyoutweigh any potential detrimental impacts.

● At the maximum level of improvement and change,several impacts could be very beneficial. However, atthis level the possible detrimental impacts or costscould be significant enough to warrant very careful con-sideration of the trade-offs involved.

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A. INTRODUCTION

The range of possible long-term effects ofimproving the flow of materials informationand analysis to public and private decision-makers by e s t ab l i sh ing the in t eg ra tedcapabilities is extremely wide. This assess-ment focuses on five broad impact areasjudged to be most significant, at least from thestandpoint of national decision makers: theGovernment, the economy, social institutionsand behavior, international policymaking, andpublic law.

To simplify the analysis where appropriate,inst i tut ional arrangements 1 and 2 ( theMaterials Information Referral Office andMaterials Information Coordinating Board)

will be considered together as institutional ar-rangements at the level of incremental im-provement and change. Likewise, institutionalarrangements 3 and 4 (the Bureau of MaterialsStatistics and Bureau of Materials Statisticsand Forecasting) will at times be discussedtogether as institutional arrangements at theleve l o f in te rmedia te improvement andchange. Finally, institutional arrangements 5,6, and 7 (the Materials Statistics Administra-tion, Materials Statistics and Forecasting Ad-ministration, and Materials Information Com-miss ion) wi l l f r equen t ly be cons ide redtogether as institutional arrangements at thelevel of maximum improvement and change.

B. IMPACTS ON GOVERNMENT

Basic conditions and key trends determiningthe impacts on governmental processes in-clude (a) the increasing complexity and criti-cality of materials supply and demand in ahighly industrialized society, (b) the concomi-tant need for detailed information and statisti-cal analysis, and (c) the importance of long-range forecasting to support contingency plan-ning and materials policymaking,

In the area of governmental impacts, the po-tentially significant effects identified were:

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Support for governmental planning andpriority selection;

Increased ability of decisionmakers tocope with materials problems;

Possible improvement in relationshipsbetween Federal, State, and local govern-ments;

Changes in the distribution of influenceand responsibility among Federal agen-cies; and

Support for increased public participationin decisionmaking.

1. Support for Governmental Planningand Priority Selection

Improving existing information systemscould contribute needed support to the processof planning, definition of objectives, andpriority selection with respect to materialspolicy. The importance of this contribution isvery significant, although information is onlyone of many variables in the planning process,Acceptance and utilization of such improve-ments could take time to build. At the level ofincremental improvement (systems approachA), impacts could be minimal because manyresponsible Government officials already areinformed about available information andhave established contacts with the collectingagencies. Thus, the Materials InformationReferral Office could at most contribute someadded convenience when new kinds of infor-mation are needed by an individual official.The Materials Information CoordinatingBoard, by adding more extensive improvementto collection/analysis activities in other agen-cies and the private sector, could marginallyupgrade the quality and availability of infor-mation.

At the intermediate level of improvement(systems approach B), the Bureau of MaterialsStatistics could provide substantial benefits interms of speed and convenience in procuringdata and providing a more consistent statisticalbase for varied elements and sources of policy-making. The addition of forecasting capabilitythrough the Bureau of Materials Statistics andForecasting could greatly increase potentialbenefits to governmental planners by permit-ting more consistency in the assumptions usedfor long-range planning by various agenciesand the legislative branch, and could con-tribute to broader consensus on materials-re-lated policy issues. The Bureau could providea focus for the organization and integration ofexisting Government materials informationsystems, and could permit application of thematerials cycle concept to support the policy-making process, On the other hand, if thestatistical analysis function reveals disparitiesbetween actual resource allocation and rele-v a n t v a l u e s h e l d b y i n t e r e s t g r o u p s ,policy makers, or large segments of the public,there could be a short-range increase in politi-cal tensions and conflict as a result.

The arrangements involving maximumchange (systems approach C), add to the po-tential benefits through stronger authority tovalidate data at the original source, How muchbenefit depends on the extent to which presentdata collection is found to be unreliable ormisleading. The Materials Stat is t ics Ad-ministration, although probably providing alarge increase in the volume of statistical data(and forecasting and analysis for the MaterialsStatistics and Forecasting Administration)could detract from the policy-related activityin other agencies and locations by competingwith them or aggregating from them some ofthe necessary supporting activities, However,the lack of forecasting and analysis functionsin the Materials Statistics Administration,while perhaps minimizing disruption of re-lated activities in existing agencies, mayseverely constrain its usefulness.

Thus there are trade-offs to be made inevaluating the relative benefits of this level ofchange. Whereas the Materials Information

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Commission might be more independent of ex-ecutive branch policy constraints and thus bemore useful to or more trusted by Congress,this same independence could lead to itsremoval from the mainstream of policy-relatedactivities and cause duplication of many of itsfunctions within both executive and legisla-tive agencies and support organizations.

2. Increased Ability of DecisionmakersTo Cope With Materials Problems

The ability of Federal-level decisionmakersto cope with materials-related problems de-pends in part on the quality and availability ofi n formation. A l s o s i g n i f i c a n t a r e t h eavailability of alternative materials and tech-nology, the authority and responsibility of theGovernment to intervene in economic transac-tions, the public acceptance of such interven-tions, and the external restraints representedby the action of other nations or the degree ofcooperation achieved domestically by industryand consumers. Thus, improvement in infor-mation flow could contribute significantly tothe capability of understanding and analyzingproblems and issues and also could aid in theability to achieve solutions (e.g., with respectto the materials, energy, environmental andt r anspor t a t ion impl i ca t ions o f poss ib l esubstitutes for imported aluminum or thedevelopment of solar-energy sources in theSouthwest). Therefore, possible impacts onthe solution of materials-related problems areclosely parallel to the potential impacts onplanning and priority selection. The forecast-ing and analysis functions which are includedin the intermediate and maximum levels ofimprovement could afford significant benefitsin situations where understanding of the scopeand complexity of a problem (and its social,political, and economic implications) is essen-tial, and where consensus must be reachedquickly in key areas (e.g., reacting to a politicalcrisis such as the oil embargo). In longer rangeproblemsolving, where responsible officialsare assumed at present to do their ownforecasting and analysis, the benefits wouldagain be in terms of the quality of analysis andconsistency of forecasts.

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3. Possible Improvement InRelationships Between Federal, State,and Local Governments

Impacts of improved materials informationflow on intergovernmental relations probablywill be significant, with most benefits likely toaccrue to State and local planners and deci-sionmakers, especially in smaller States andlocalities with least internal resources for in-formation gathering, analysis, and forecasting.At the incremental and intermediate improve-ment levels, State and local planners and deci-sionmakers could derive substantial benefitsfrom the added convenience and ease of locat-ing data in Federal agencies or in a new officeor agency. And, they could benefit by theanalysis and forecasts made available to them,as well as the support provided for improve-ment of their own data capabilities. This couldenhance coopera t ion be tween l eve l s o fGovernment to the advantage of both. At themaximum change levels, these benefits couldbe outweighed by distrust or resentmentresulting from activities arising through theadditional authority to verify and validatedata, from resistance to growth in the Federalbureaucracy, and possibly from disruption ofestablished contacts in the existing Federalagencies,

4. Changes in the Distribution ofInfluence and Responsibility AmongFederal Agencies

The distribution of influence, responsibility,power, and public visibility among Federalagencies will also be impacted by improve-ments and changes in materials informationsystems. Hence, indirectly, the oversight func-tions of some congressional committees will beaffected as well as budgetary allocations to theaffected agencies. These changes are of littleinterest to information users and to the public,but they may be of concern to Congressmenand are very important in determining thestance of agencies toward proposed changes inexisting systems. Some impacts could be

manifested even at the incremental level ofchange.

For the Referral Office, impacts could beconfined largely to the parent agency whichmust establish and maintain the referralsystem, and to other agencies which will beasked to respond to the referrals themselves.This impact is limited to the need for newpositions and support facilities, and to someincremental increase in public visibility andconstituency for the parent agency. The Coor-dinating Board adds to the referral system theeffort necessary for more extensive improve-ment of information systems in other agenciesplus governmental support for improvementof private sector systems. Thus, there could beincreased costs as well as benefits for otheragencies, benefits (subsidies) for industry andposs ib ly fo r un ive r s i t i e s and re sea rchorganizations, and general public benefitsfrom improved accessibility and quality of in-formation.

At the intermediate level, the Bureau ofMaterials Statistics (or Materials Statistics andForecasting) could represent a significant im-pact (increased responsibility and benefits) forthe parent agency and some diminution ofresponsibilities, constituency, or budget forother agencies who will, however, still havetheir existing responsibilities for data collec-tion and dissemination. At the maximumchange level, however, creation of a new ex-ecu t ive agency (an Admin i s t r a t ion fo rMaterials Statistics or Materials Statistics andForecasting) might create a new force inmaterials-related activities and constitute asignificant loss of functions, influence, person-nel, and constituency for existing agencies,Furthermore, the additional authority to vali-date data and determine procedures andclassifications for its collection could createnew demands and checks on other agencies,which will nevertheless still retain data collec-tion functions, The Materials InformationCommission is vested with authority to collectdata, superseding some of the functions ofother agencies. This institutional arrangementcould obviously have the most significant im-

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pacts. All arrangements within the maximumchange level (and probably the intermediatelevel as well) require new legislation and thuscould require new oversight and budgetary ac-tivities in Congress.

5. Support for Increased PublicParticipation in Decisionmaking

Conflicts between the public demand for in-formation and the demand for protection ofproprietary information on the part of industrycould very likely arise,

At the incremental level of change, therecould be small but beneficial impacts on publicparticipation since a referral service (and, to alesser extent, improvement in private informa-tion systems) could primarily benefit thepublic and private interest groups who lackthe established contacts and relatively easy ac-cess to sources of information which govern-mental officials by and large already enjoy.The costs of providing this service to the

C. IMPACTS ON

Among the possible economic implicationsare:

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Improved ability of the private sector tomeet national needs for materials;

Clarification of materials substitution andR&D options;

Support for industrial planning;

Changes in the competitiveness of thematerials industry;

Stimulus to governmental / industr ialcooperation in materials policy develop-ment and implementation;

Clarification of consumer choices; and

Contribution to land use and regionalplanning.

public could be significant over time. Federaldecisionmakers may reap secondary benefits,however, if informed participation is less aptto be suspicious, host i le , or counter toestablished governmental objectives than lessinformed participation. On the other hand,more available information may stimulatepublic interventions through court suits andadministrative proceedings. Both possible out-comes are increasingly likely as statistical ag-gregation and analysis and official forecastsare made available (at the intermediate changelevel) and as the source of such information ismore publicly visible (at the maximum changelevel, with a new executive or independentagency). The possible conflict between publicdemands for information, operating throughthe Freedom of Information Act, and the needfor protection of confidential data and infor-mation sensitive to industry planning couldbecome more acute at the intermediate andmaximum levels, as stronger authority forverification of data is added.

THE ECONOMY

Basic economic conditions and trends in-clude the new concern about the ability of in-dustry to meet national needs under possibleconditions of limited resource availability, andnew realization of the extent to which rawmaterials have become dependent on foreignsources. In addition, during the last decadepressure has developed to force industry to ab-sorb what were hitherto regarded as externalcosts: environmental pollution and socialwelfare responsibilities, To the extent thatreliable information is lacking, including cred-ible statistical analysis and forecasts of supplyand demand, standards and criteria may in-deed be established which cannot be imple-mented or enforced or which place unreasona-ble burdens on some segments of the economy.

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1. Improved Ability of the Private SectorTo Meet National Needs for Materials

Adequate information is essential both toindustry and to Government in trying to main-tain the most productive balance between thebasic role of industry in supplying rawmaterials and finished goods, and the respon-sibility of Government to support, regulate,and in some cases subsidize these activities.Industry is constrained in information gather-ing in four ways: (a) by its own resourcelimitations; (b ) by the complex i ty anddiffusion of Federal processes of informationgathering and analysis (and policymaking, im-plementation, and related regulatory ac-tivities); (c) by the necessity of protectingproprietary information whose release wouldcompromise the competitive position of in-dividual corporations; and (d) by constraintsimposed by antitrust legislation against thesharing of information, forecasts, and planningactivities. The Government, however, canease some of these constraints by centralizingand aggregating data in such a way that infor-mation affecting the competitive position ofindividual companies is protected.

At the incremental level of improvement ofmaterials information systems, no additionaldata gathering is envisioned. Industry (ingeneral) has established knowledge andsources of information so that a Materials In-formation Referral Office adds few benefits.Some assistance to the private sector and toagencies in improving data collection andclassification is included within the mandateof the Coordinating Board, so with this alter-nat ive there could be small , long-rangebeneficial impacts. The additional statisticalanalysis and forecasting included at the inter-mediate level ( the Bureau of MaterialsStatistics or Materials Statistics and Forecast-ing) could add significant beneficial impactsby providing industry with better informationabout the analytical basis and assumptions un-derlying evolving governmental policy, as wellas supplementing the similar analyses carriedon within the private sector.

At the maximum change level, a new ex-ecutive branch agency could have strongerauthority for verification and validation ofdata (and the Materials Information Commis-sion would in addition have authorization forcollecting data). At this level, the possibilitiesof conflict over protection of sensitive infor-mation, and the possibility of accidental ordeliberate disclosure of such information tothe detriment of corporations, could becomeacute, and new legislative safeguards wouldlikely be needed.

To protect against the possibility of abuse ofinformation or of excessive control over infor-mation, institutional arrangements at the max-imum change level (the Materials StatisticalAdministration and Information Commission)are envisioned as having a number of checksand balances. The Freedom of Information Actassures that aggregated data will be availableto all. Direct and continuous oversight by GAOand OMB and periodic review and investiga-tion by congressional committees are pro-vided, Except perhaps for the independentcommission, all proposed arrangements couldretain primary data collection activity in exist-ing agencies, continuing the safeguards nowprovided by their charters and enablinglegislation, In general, therefore, improvementof existing information systems could provideadditional support to industry in meeting na-tional materials needs, The improvementscould significantly contribute to industry’scapability in this area.

2. Clarification of Materials Substitutionand R&D Options

Materials substitution requires effectiveforecasting of availability and costs; it also re-quires information about materials perform-ance, Research and development programsmay be necessary and must be initiated well inadvance of critical needs. A flow of materialsinformation, including both technical informa-tion and identification of ongoing R&D, is im-portant to this process and has important im-plications for governmental policy makers aswell as industry.

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At the incremental improvement level,benefits could be relatively small but couldstill have long-range importance because ofimprovement of existing information systems(stimulated by the Coordinating Board), At theintermediate and maximum change levels,benefits could be much larger because of theadded consistency and scope of statisticalanalysis of rates of development and con-sumption and forecasts of availability. The re-quirements for analysis and forecasting thatwould be provided by the Bureau of MaterialsStatist ics and Forecasting, the MaterialsStatistics and Forecasting Administration, orthe Materials Information Commission couldbe used to alert industry to impending govern-mental demands and constraints in time to in-corporate this information into long-range cor-porate planning and investment strategy, Theauthority to validate information included inthe arrangements for a new Administration orCommission, as applied to ongoing researchand development and anticipating technologi-cal breakthroughs, could pose a particularthreat to industry and require well-consideredlegislative safeguards as a part of any enablinglegislation.

3. Support for Industrial Planning

The impacts on corporate planning are po-tentially important. Industry must now takeinto account a range of considerations far moreextensive than the traditional criteria ofprofi tabil i ty: nat ional and internationalpolicies, worldwide economic fluctuations,political stability in developing countries, en-vironmental and social impacts, consumerreactions, and changing employment patterns,among others. The development of technologi-cal forecasting since World War II is more re-cently being paralleled by corporate interest insocial and policy forecasting. In these ac-tivities, as will be further discussed below,large corporations have a great advantage oversmaller companies. Yet small companies maybe particularly important to meeting national

needs, especially in the area of exploring andopening up new materials sources and in in-novation and technological breakthroughs, Im-provements in materials information systemsat the incremental level could have somebenefits for small suppliers but little for largercorporations with an established capability forusing all available sources of data.

At the intermediate level, benefits couldalso be proportionately larger for small firmswith little capability for statistical analysis andforecasting. But at this level and above,benefits could also become significant forlarger companies and multinationals by allow-ing them to mesh their own assumptions andplanning with governmental forecasts of na-tional needs, Direct benefits to governmentaldecisionmakers could also become significantbecause this meshing will facilitate implemen-tation of stockpiling and long-range procure-ment planning. Clarification of the possibleneed for Government-stimulated or subsidizedR&D could allow more efficient long-rangea l loca t ion o f r e sea rch budge t s , Aga in ,however, validation of data as related to in-dustrial investment planning requires sensi-tive legal safeguards.

4. Changes In the Competitiveness ofthe Materials Industry

As indicated in the discussion of industrialplanning, the disadvantages of small firmsrelative to large firms could tend to decreaseby improving their access to existing datasources (at the incremental change level) andby supplying basic statistical analysis andforecasts (at the intermediate and maximumchange levels), Indirectly, on the other hand,the tendency to use the same basic forecastsand analysis, as supplied by the institutionalarrangements with these capabilities, could tosome extent have the same effect as collusionamong the giant industries in the field, andcould discourage small firms from high-riskventures which they might otherwise under-take. At the maximum change level, the crea-

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tion of a new Administration or Commissionmight intensify industry fears of centralizedgovernmental planning and intrusion ofGovernment into the private sector. There isalso, allied to the new authority to validatedata, an increased possibility of efforts to in-fluence governmental officials for purposes ofabuse of confidential information.

5. Stimulus to Governmental/IndustrialCooperation in Materials PolicyDevelopment and Implementation

These potential impacts also relate toGovernment and industry cooperat ion inmaterials policy development and implemen-tation, The traditional view has been that ex-tensive cooperation was not desired and wasindeed suspect except in defense and heavilyregulated industries, The long-range trend,however, is toward increasing interdepend-ence of the public and private sectors in deci -s ionmaking because of the pressure onresources, the growing complexity and interre-latedness of the national economy, and the in-creasing costs of technology and of researchand development. Public pressure and theneed for an image of social responsibility havealso brought about decreased resistance by in-dustry toward absorbing what were hithertoconsidered externalities or social costs.

Aside from the benefits of governmentalassistance in improving existing public andprivate sector information systems at the in-cremental change level, there will be an addi-t ional s t imulus to business/Governmentcooperation through the shared use of assump-tions based on the statistical analysis andforecast ing capabil i ty of the Bureau ofMaterials Stat is t ics and Forecast ing, theMaterials Stat is t ics and Forecast ing Ad-ministration, and the Materials InformationCommission, The use of the materials cycleconcept as the focus of analysis at the inter-mediate and maximum change levels, for ex-ample, is a r ich basis for govern men-

tal/industry cooperation in policy formulationto the advantage of both, As already noted,however, the perception of increased govern-mental activity and involvement in materialssupply/demand planning may in some in-dustrial quarters raise strong fear of increasedconstraint and regulation and loss of the ad-vantages of confidential information.

6. Clarification of Consumer Choices

Improvement or change in materials infor-mation systems should have little significantdirect impact in the a rea o f consumerbehavior, other than to clarify choices. Thereis increased sensitivity to health, safety, andenvironmental impacts on the part of con-sumers, and increasing selectivity amongproducts on the basis of rising costs, But con-sumer choices are determined by many varia-bles, and detailed information about materialsis probably an important factor only in a smallminority of cases, Establishment of a Con-sumer Protection Agency which might drawon the materials information either throughthe referral service or the clearinghouse func-tion could increase impacts somewhat; other-wise, use of the information by individual con-sumers will probably not be large, exceptperhaps with a small group of highly moti-vated and informed consumers,

7. Contribution to Land Use andRegional Planning

The impact on land use and regionaldevelopment could be significant in develop-ment of land use plans, Land use planning issteadily increasing as the long tradition ofemphasis on growth has come into conflictwith environmental concerns (and rising landprices). Wise land use planning includes con-sideration of the relative desirability of alter-native uses, including minerals development.However, materials needs at the nationallevel , regional object ives for economicdevelopment, and local environmental values

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imply complex trade-oft’s which must be ad-judicated or mediated between public and pri-vate sectors, different regions and States, anddifferent levels of Government.

Impacts at the incremental level of improve-ment could be minimal, resulting only fromadditional convenience in locating data bylocal officials (who are generally already in-formed about existing sources) and improve-ment in agency and regional or private sectorinformation systems. At the intermediate and

D. SOCIAL

In the area of social impacts, the followingpotential effects were identified:

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Improvedment;

Increased

Concern

materials information manage-

access to materials information;

over privacy (individual andcorporate) and control of information;

Movement toward futures research andinterest in alternative futures;

Media treatment of materials-related na-tional problems;

Public understanding of materials-relatednational problems; and

Education and curriculum developmentin materials-related areas.

1. Improved Materials InformationManagement

At the incremental change level , theMaterials Information Referral Office couldprovide only marginally additional ease of ac-cess to information/materials specialists whoalready have established access to existingsources of data. Improvement in agencymaterials information systems and private sec-tor systems could be supported by the Coor-dinating Board, and could be beneficial, as

maximum change levels, statistical analysiscapability could be of significant assistance, ascould forecasting. But in the latter case, localauthorities are apt to treat national forecastsskeptically where such forecasts conflict withlocal perceptions or priorities. The new Ad-ministration or Commission proposed in themaximum change levels could have minorshort-range detrimental impacts by disruptingestablished contacts between agencies andlocal authorities,

could the statistical analyses and forecastsavailable through various institutional ar-rangements for intermediate and maximumchange. The authority to validate data and col-lect additional data (at the intermediate andmaximum levels) could add to the informationload of all existing systems and must thereforebe

2.

counted both as a benefit and a cost.

Increased Access to MaterialsInformation

Access to information has become more im-portant as the demand for public participationin decisionmaking (through hearings, lawsuits, and other modes of public intervention)has increased. Under the access policies repre-sented by the Freedom of Information Act, anyimprovement in existing systems beginning atthe incremental change level, could meanprogressively larger demand for service to thepublic at large, especially to public interestgroups. Public demand could be further stimu-lated by the higher visibility inherent in a newBureau or Administration at the intermediateand maximum change levels. This service maybe costly. As already noted, the statistical,forecasting, and analysis capabilities couldalso increase demands for full access from theindustrial and research sectors and from otherGovernment agenc ies . To some ex ten t ,

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however, demands on existing agencies couldbe relieved at the intermediate and especiallyat the maximum change levels, although de-mands might be increased over present levelsat the incremental change level as the referralservice could tend to stimulate requests for ac-cess to agency information.

Improved access to information in the senseof quality and scope of data could increase sig-nificantly at the intermediate and maximumchange levels. Through validation of datapresently provided by the private sector andby the authority to collect new data independ-ent of existing sources, the maximum changealternatives (new Administration or Commis-sion) could offer the prospect of the greatestimprovement in the quality as well as the levelof access.

3. Concern Over Individual andCorporate Privacy and ControlInformation

Privacy and control of information

of

is a sen-sitive area of potential impact. The increasinguse of integrated, computerized data banks hasled to great concern over the possibility ofabuses and to at tempts to provide legalsafeguards (e.g., the Privacy Act of 1974), Per-sonal privacy is unlikely to be affected by anycurrently proposed changes in materials infor-mation systems. There are possible impacts oncorporate privacy (control of “proprietary” in-formation), but these are not relevant at the in-cremental level of change, However, the ac-tions of the Coordinating Board could, overtime, lead to redefinition of classification andstandards of data collection by stimulating andsupporting incremental improvement in exist-ing information systems. Danger to corporateprivacy is minimized in arrangements creatinga new Bureau or Administration. While thereis added authority to validate raw data col-lected by Government agencies, the originalauthority and responsibilitydata remains in exist ingGovernment agencies which

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for collection ofsources. Thosenow collect, ag-

gregate, and disseminate data will continue todo so under laws and regulations which ap-pear to provide adequate safeguards.

The authority to validate information at theoriginal source, which is added in the max-imum change level (a new Administration orCommission), is the first of two sensitivepoints. Some safeguards against erosion of cor-porate privacy are assumed. Application ofsafeguards in existing statutes (the Freedom ofInformation Act and the Privacy Act). directmonitoring by OMB and GAO, oversight bycongressional committees, and court action.Protection can be built into the systems tech-nically, but additional legal safeguards may beneeded, The second sensitive point is theauthority provided for the Materials Informa-tion Commission to collect new data indepen-dently of existing sources and maintain adetailed data base, This data bank may wellexpose information presently held only by pri-vate sector corporations and considered confi-dential. Aggregation of data may not be suffi-cient to prevent some detrimental impacts oncorporate competitive positions (or public im-age), and careful trade-offs will have to bemade between public and private interests inthis area.

A related impact area is possible stimulationof the growth of interconnected data banksand retrieval systems. These impacts could beminimal at the incremental change level,although the Referral Office could be intercon-nected with search and retrieval systems inthe public and private sectors, and thus stimu-late wider use of such systems, Improvementof existing materials information systemsthrough actions of the Coordinating Boardcould have a similar stimulating effect, and infact could be necessary before interconnectionbetween agency information systems (now inearly stages of discussion or development) isthoroughly feasible.

The summary data bank envisioned for anew Bureau (at the intermediate change level)or for a new Administration (at the maximumchange level), and even more specifically the

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detailed data base to be developed by theMaterials Information Commission, couldultimately have direct access to and fromagencies. Given the summary data base, inter-connection between the new agency, execu-tive and congressional policymaking, andpolicy analysis offices (OMB, CBO, OTA,GAO, CRS, and even congressional committeeoffices), or between the new agency and Stateand local agencies and Federal field offices ap-pears feasible, The detailed data base envi-sioned under the Commission arrangementcould make such interconnections a necessity.

4. Movement Toward Futures Researchand Interest in Alternative Futures

Futures research and public attention to thediscussion of alternative futures for the UnitedStates is a growing movement deriving fromwide perception of an increasing rate of socialchange and uncertainty about conditions per-ceived as outside individual control. Thispolicy-oriented attention to future optionsbegan in academic/professional/research cir-cles (as evidenced by the rapid growth of theWorld Future Society, and the establishmentof a number of “futures” journals). More re-cently it has begun to be institutionalized inthe Federal Government (CRS has a futuresstudy group, and congressional committees arenow required to give increased attention tofutures options). A number of States haveestablished commissions or committees to con-duct analysis or lead discussions of alternativefutures for the State or region.

The impacts on the movement towarddeliberate design of future options (both with-in the Government and in the larger publicforum) could become significant over the longrange. This is most likely at the intermediatechange level with the addition of forecastingcapability (the Bureau of Materials Statisticsand Forecasting), and especially with the add-

ed visibility gained through the establishmentof a new Administration or Commission at themaximum change level. Emphasis on thematerials-cycle concept could also help to raisethe level of discourse on alternative futures.

5. Media Treatment of Materials-RelatedNational Problems

Media treatment of materials-related na-tional problems is increasing, but is oftenmarked by a lack of depth and sophisticationor by polemical rather than balanced analyti-cal treatment. The media are perhaps the ma-jor stimulators of political debate in the UnitedStates and often serve to identify emerging na-tional problems, at least for the public, to in-fluence or constrain the definition of policyissues, to inject expert or scientific opinioninto the public discussion, and to educate thepublic about possible responses (e.g., energyconservation). Increasingly, a portion of theprint media is becoming specialized to meetthe demands of the newly concerned publicfor information about emerging nationalproblems (e.g., environmental affairs journals,consumer affairs journals).

While improvement of materials informa-tion systems would support media attention tomaterials-related problems, this impact couldperhaps assume immediate significance onlyat the maximum change level. Here, theestablishment of a new Administration orCommission could focus media attention onmaterials problems with a newsworthy event,and over time the media could tend to developmedia specialists to deal with that agency. Atthe intermediate level of change, however,there could be longer range development ofmargin a 1 impacts because the media,especially the specialized print media, couldtend to use materials statistical analyses,forecasts, and analyses only to a limited ex-tent, However, the materials-cycle concept

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alone, if picked up by the media, could itself work for materials-related public affairslead to a new organizing principle or frame- programming.

E. IMPACTS ON INTERNATIONAL POLICYMAKING

The following areas of possible interna-tional impact were identified:

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Awareness of need for internationalmaterials information;

Operation of multinational corporations;

Increased ability to cope with interna-tional materials cartels;

Improved basis for foreign policy onmaterials and trade;

Stimulation of the use of satellites for in-formation purposes; and

Support for international discussion ofmaterials-related problems.

1. Awareness of Need for InternationalMaterials Information

Awareness of the need for internationalmaterials information will be increased by im-prov ing ma te r i a l s in fo rmat ion sys t ems .Historically, the advanced industrial nationshave acquired much of their raw materialsfrom less developed nations. Internationalpolicy has been oriented toward protectingAmerican foreign investment. But the post-World War II rise of nationalism, and rising re-sentment over the gap in standards of livingbetween developed and developing nations,has decreased the relative economic leverageof the United States. Developing nations areexerting control over their resources throughnationalization of foreign investments, cartels,tax policies, and so forth, The U.S. policy ismoving toward commodity agreements ratherthan a free trade posture, Multinational cor-porations already benefit greatly from their ac-cess to informationcountries, but other

about materials in manyU.S. industries as well as

the U.S. Government have an increasing needfor foreign materials information,

At the incremental level of improvement,benefits could accrue more to foreign govern-ments and corporations (to the extent that theycan use the referral service) than to U.S. indus-try. Even if there is exchange of information,the United States probably maintains morecomprehensive materials information thanmost other countries. At the intermediate andmaximum change l eve l s , however , theclearinghouse function could make it signifi-cantly easier for U.S. industry as well aspolicy makers to obtain information aboutmany countries from one source. The datacould also be incorporated into statisticalanalysis and forecasting, A new Bureau, Ad-ministration, or Commission (and perhapseven the Coordinating Board) could have someauthority or, at the minimum, influence to im-prove categorization and classification of na-t iona l secur i ty in fo rmat ion r e l a t ed tomaterials. This may have the long-range resultof declassifying some information currentlynot available to the public or even to civiliananalysts and policy makers. However, shouldforeign governments and industry be reluctantto provide information, the net effect could beto the disadvantage of domestic competitiveinterests, This might in turn generate pro-posals for limiting foreign access to informa-tion.

2. Operation of MultinationalCorporations

In the area of materials, many multinationalcorporations have scope, resources, and scalesecond only to national governments, Improv-ing the materials information systems is likelyto have little impact on the operations of the

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multinationals, or little benefit for them, ex-cept that by checking their own forecasts andanalyses against that of an integrated systems,they may have a common basis for planningand for reacting to crisis in conjunction with oras a response to national policies. In a sense,this could benefit multinational corporationsby making the “rules of the game” more ex-plicit. However, the more significant impactsmay be benefits to U.S. policy makers in in-creasing their capability to understand theoperations of multinationals.

3. Increased Ability to Cope WithInternational Materials Cartels

There may also be impacts on the formationand operation of international materials car-tels (combinations of suppliers with controlover supply and/or price of materials). TheOPEC experience has led to fears of similar ac-tions in regard to other materials for which theUnited States is dependent on less developedcountries, for example, the pricing actionstaken by the International Bauxite Associa-tion. Improved requirements for statisticalanalysis and forecasting and for gathering andvalidating information (at the intermediateand maximum change levels) could assist indeveloping strategies and contingency plansfor coping with these situations in advance oftheir occurrence.

4. Improved Basis for Foreign Policy onMaterials and Trade

Linkages of materials policy with foreignpolicy and national security policy are critical,involving the need for information about alter-native foreign sources of materials, the effectsof technology transfer, and foreign aid. Otherareas of concern include stockpiling needs,subst i tut ion possibi l i t ies from domest icsources, trade and investment patterns, andthe potentials of conservation and recycling.Again, integrated capabilities for statistical

analysis and forecasting and for validating in-formation could provide significant assistanceat the intermediate and maximum changelevels, and the use of the materials cycle con-cept may become a useful basis for preparingfor international negotiations about materialsand trade.

5. Stimulation of Use of Satellites forInformation Purposes

The use of domestic and internationalsatellites for developing materials informationmay receive some stimulation from establish-ing the in t eg ra t ed capab i l i t i e s and theauthority to validate information at the max-imum change level, Remote sensing, includingthe Earth Resources Technology Satellite(ERTS)—now called LANDSAT—is chieflyuseful for cataloging above-ground resources.This technology has aroused internationalcontroversy over possible erosion of controlover national resources by less developedcountries, Use of satellite technology by ahighly visible new Administration or Commis-sion to validate existing data or gather newdata could increase the fearful perception byother countries of increased U.S. control overinformation to serve our own purposes,However, the benefits of international use ofERTS could be strengthened by improved datacriteria and classification and by widespreaduse of the concept of the materials cycle as astructuring principle.

6. Support for International Discussionof Materials-Related Problems

The United Nations’ Organizat ion forEconomic Cooperation and Development, andother international organizations (includingnongovernmental organs such as the Interna-tional Institute for Applied Systems Researchand the Society for General Systems Research)are increasingly active in the area of materialsinformation and related educational activities.

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For example,Sixth Special

in 1974, the UNSession on “Raw

sponsored a R&D priorities, It is likely that internationalMaterials and discussion of materials-related problems could

Development, ” and OECD is currently survey- be supported by and also contribute to data in-ing member countries on materials policy and corporate in the integrated capabilities.

F. IMPACTS ON PUBLIC LAW

The possible legal impact areas consideredinclude:

●

●

●

●

●

Submission of materials information byprivate s o u r c e s a n d v a l i d a t i o n o fmaterials data by Government agencies;

Exchange of materials information byGovernment agencies;

Application of the Freedom of Informa-tion Act to data in materials informationsystems;

Revision of reporting requirements formaterials-related industries; and

Promotion of other national policies and

1.

programs.

Submission and Validation ofMaterials Data

At present, Government agencies rely pri-marily on voluntary compliance with their re-quests for materials data by private sectorsources. While many agencies possess theauthority to compel reporting of materialsdata, few agencies are vested with full powerto obtain validation of data submitted beyondmere visitational authority.

In recent years, recognition of the effects ofcorporate activities on national interests hasled to new reporting and disclosure require-ments on private industry, such as those foundin environmental and safety legislation (e.g.,the National Environmental Policy Act andthe Occupational Health and Safety Act) aswell as economic and energy legislation (e.g.,the Economic Stabil ization Act, Federal

Energy Act, and the Energy Supply and En-vironmental Coordination Act). Such legisla-t ion de l ibe ra t e ly confe r s ex tens ive in -vestigatory and enforcement power upon rele-vant agencies, and some of the current legisla-t ive proposals for materials informationsystems could continue this trend,

No change in existing agency mandatoryauthority is contemplated at the incrementaland intermediate change levels (ReferralOffice, Coordinating Board, or New Bureau).Consequently, no direct impact could arisefrom implementing these arrangements.However, some minor indirect impacts mayresult from establishing a Coordinating Boardor new Bureau, as changes in agency data col-lection practices are made to accommodate theneeds of the information systems and as in-creased and more detailed requests for infor-mation are sought from the materials industry,Any reluctance by industry to comply volun-tarily may cause agencies to exercise existingauthority to compel disclosure and validationand to seek addit ional mandatory powerwhere necessary,

Institutional arrangements at the maximumchange level (a new Administration or Com-mission) call for expansion of Governmentauthority to validate data submissions at theoriginal source. In addition, as at the incre-mental and intermediate change levels, in-creased use of existing powers of relevantagencies may be expected as the integratedcapabilities are developed, with expansion ofother agencies’ manda to ry au thor i ty ( apossibility in the face of any damaging non-compliance by industry).

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Authority of the Materials InformationCommission could actually supersede theauthority of existing agencies for data collec-tion and validation, thus consolidating moststatistical responsibilities in a single agency.However, this would not necessarily mean afurther increase in the collection and valida-tion powers of the Government, since the ac-tual data collection could remain primarilywith existing agencies and could be subject toexisting protections of data sources.

2. Exchange of Materials Information byGovernment Agencies

Under existing institutional arrangements,many different Government agencies are in-volved in the collection and analysis ofmaterials information, resulting in duplicationof in fo rmat ion and d i scouragement o fcooperation between agencies. Some effortshave been made to eliminate a portion of thiscostly overlap. However, many existing laws,regulations, and practices create absolute bar-riers to sharing of information between agen-cies,

The commodities information program ad-ministered by the Department of Commerce il-lustrates the problems of interagency coopera-tion. Commodities statistics are collected andanalyzed by various offices in the Depart-ments of Commerce, Agriculture, and Interior.Additional economic information is obtainedfrom the Departments of Labor and Treasury.All of this information is then used by theDepartment of Commerce in its economicpublications and analyses. But other agenciesseeking data used in compilation of thesereports have limited access, and must obtainthe necessary information independently fromthe original sources.

The result has been that repeated and oftenburdensome requests for information byGovernment agencies have in turn generatedcomplaints from business. Some restrictions toinformation exchange were of course created

by legislative or administrative action to pro-mote cooperation by private sources throughguarantees of absolute confidentiality andanonymity of individual data, and throughstrict limitations on access and use of the databy Government officials.

But as illustrated above, one effect of therestriction is to increase the burden on theGovernment in seeking disclosure of corporateinformation. Even Congress is prevented bythese restrictions from obtaining informationnecessary to its oversight and lawmakingfunctions. New legislation has recognized thisproblem, and the current trend is to allowagencies access on a discretionary, case-by-case basis through appropriate request to theholder of data,

At the incremental change level , theMaterials Information Referral Office couldhave only a minor indirect impact, if any, oninformation exchange, since most currentGovernment users of such information alreadyknow the loca t ion o f the da ta sough t .Likewise, the impact of the CoordinatingBoard, if any, could be minor and indirect. Useof materials information under existing condi-tions of interagency exchange could be aidedby improvements in comparability and stand-ardization of agency data bases.

Institutional arrangements at the intermedi-ate change level could have a significant im-pact on the actual exchange of information be-tween agencies to accommodate new Bureauoperations. The Bureau would require the con-tinuing cooperation of different agencies in thecollection and submission of materials data foruse in the summary data base and as input tothe referral and statistical capability, Somediscretionary revision of existing regulationsand policies would be required. But, since botharrangements represent essentially statisticaluses, the required information exchange couldbe accommodated under existing restrictivestatutes.

Another minor but direct impact of a newBureau is on laws restricting access to original

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data sources for validation purposes by per-sonnel from outside agencies. Any conflictwith existing law could be addressed in theenabling legislation for the Bureau. Alter-natively, existing law could be interpreted asconsistent with provisions of the FederalRecords Act which, under certain conditions,expands access to include secondary users ofrestricted data as long as protection of theoriginal data sources is maintained,

At the maximum change level. a new Ad-ministration could have impacts similar t othose described for a new Bureau, with theadditional possibility of minor institutionaldisruptions (since the Administration wouldhave authority to determine the conditions ofinformation exchanges and necessary changesin other agency data bases). Opportunities atthis level are greater for direct conflict be-tween enabling legislat ion and exist ingstatutes which vest certain discret ionaryauthority in collecting agencies. The MaterialsStatistics and Forecasting Administration hasthe additional dimension of access to forecast-ing and analytical information which in somesensitive areas, may meet with assertions ofexecutive privilege and national security.Should such conflicts arise, their resolutionmay require court action or specific legislationand in the interim may cause minor disruptionin some operations.

The Materials Information Commissioncould cause significant institutional disruptionaccompanying the likely modifications inGovernment materials data-collecting ac-tivities. Existing patterns and arrangements ofmaterials data exchange could probably bereplaced or revised. Comprehensive authorityfor data collection and validation would beplaced in the Commission, with a reduction inthe corresponding authority of other agencies.However, agencies would retain most respon-sibilities for actual collection of data, release ofwhich to the Commission would be withinrelevant agency discretion, On the other hand,the Commission could exercise discretion overrelease of its own primary data to other agen-cies, Restrictions on disclosure of and access to

Commission data thus could be a major andrecurring issue.

3. ApplicationInformationInformation

The Freedom552) affirms the

of the Freedom ofAct to Data in MaterialsSystems

of Information Act (5 U.S. C.right of any person to inspect

and copy any Government information, docu-ments, or record’, with several snatnory ex-ceptions, Data would, thus, be subject to theprovisions of the Freedom of Information Actunless covered by a specific exemption, Themajor exemptions are those for privileged andconfidential financial information submittedby a person, trade secrets, or other informationexempted from disclosure under a specificstatute, Current judicial trends have limiteduse of these exemptions. Confidential infor-mation is protected from disclosure onlywhere disclosure would impair the Govern-ment’s authority to obtain such information inthe future or where disclosure of financial in-formation would cause substantial harm to therespondent’s competitive position,

Where a specific statutory exemption exists,even solely discretionary exemptions, thecourts will generally uphold agency discretion.However, where only part of a document orrecord is protected, the exempt portion will bedeleted and the remainder made public. Often,mere deletion of identifying information issufficient protection for disclosure of remain-ing information which would otherwise beheld confidential,

Under all arrangements with the increasedavailability of materials information, requestsunder the Freedom of Information Act can beexpected to increase as discussed previously inthe social impacts section,

Arrangements at the incremental and inter-mediate change levels (Referral Office, Coor-dinating Board, or new Bureau) could have nodirect impact on freedom of information, Ex-isting standards and exemptions could con-tinue to apply with a policy in favor of dis-closure, while at the same time maximizing

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protection of individual respondents. Somedifferences in disclosure decisions may be ex-pected under the separate policies and statutesgoverning original collecting agencies. whichmay be resolved through agency action orlegislation as needed.

In addition. specific statutory exemptionscovering data could he enacted as part ofauthorizing legislation or appropriations acts.However, such special exemptions could limitaccess to data and may therefore be inconsist-ent with both freedom of information and theoverall policy of open access.

Arrangements at the maximum changelevel (a new Administration or Commission)could have their own discret ionary andstatutory exempt ions, possibly placing 1imitson FOIA disclosure requirements. A desiredmajor impact of all arrangements (except forthe Referral Office) could he the necessarydevelopment (through legislation, regulation,and/or court action) of specific standards ofconfidential it y for sensitive materials informa-tion to the ultimate benefit of all parties.

4. Revision of Reporting Requirementsfor Materials-Related Industries

During the past seven decades, there hasbeen increasing Government interaction withprivate enterprise in areas of corporate struc-ture and finances, health, safety, labor rela-tions, environment, energy, and raw materials,among others. The integrated capabilitiescould likely have some impact on Governmentinvolvement in the materials industry. At theleast, a revision of and perhaps an increase inGovernment reporting requirements for datafrom materials corporations can be expected,This impact could range from minimal for theincremental change arrangements to perhapsquite substantial at the maximum changelevel. Government/industry interaction couldalso be expected to increase with respect to theadministration and operation of materials in-formation systems in general, the develop-ment of reporting mechanisms, and the setting

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of standards of confidentiality and public dis-closure.

The improvements in knowledge of thematerials industry may indirectly lead to otherGovernment actions such as greater regulationof scarce materials, Federal incentives fordevelopment of critical resources, and changesin management policies of federal ly ad-ministered mineral and agricultural resources.

5. Promotion of Other National Policiesand Programs

The energy crisis spurred investigations byvarious Federal agencies and congressionalcommittees with respect to fuel resources andconsumption. Results of these investigationsshowed lack of detailed, independent Govern-ment information on critical fuel materials.

The establishment of a materials monitoringapparatus may indirectly contribute to extend-ing this national concern to other criticalmaterials. The availability of comprehensivematerials information to al l branches ofGovernment, business, and the general publiccould be expected to some extent to raise thelevel of consciousness of the general materialsoutlook. Should serious shortages be revealed,there could likely be greater pressure for cor-rective action under existing law and for newlegislation. Arrangements at the incrementalchange level are least likely to have this kindof impact. While the likelihood is greater forarrangements at the intermediate and incre-mental change levels, in every case the impactwill depend upon the extent of developmentand use of the integrated capabilities.

Another result may be to facilitate the ap-plication of existing laws which require ad-vance consideration and planning of majorGovernment and industry projects. Examplesinclude the National Environmental PolicyAct and land use planning statutes. Com-prehensive data on national materials needsand resources could be used to make informedchoices between competing values and in-terests, thus furthering the decisionmakingpolicies inherent in such legislation.

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G. IMPACT OF ALTERNATIVE LEVELS OF IMPROVEMENT

1. Incremental LevelArrangement 1 (Materials Information

Referral Office) envisions the establishment ofa materials referral service in a new or existingoffice of an existing materials-related execu-tive agency. Through this service, users canlocate existing information sources and data inthat and other agencies and the private sector.No major impacts of this incremental level ofimprovement were found. There could besome added convenience for congressionalstaff; new users within agencies (who will notyet have made their own agency contacts);smaller U.S. firms; foreign industry andGovernment officials; public interest groups(or the general public) who have not yetdeveloped expertise; and students, teachers,and researchers.

The Referral Office could tend to stimulatedemands on existing information systems, andcould marginally improve accessibility to suchsystems. Requests under the Freedom of Infor-mation Act can be expected to increase. Dollarcosts could be relatively low, but the parentagency could require new positions and fundsand could experience some incremental in-crease in public visibility and constituency.

Arrangement 2 (Materials InformationCoordinating Boards) adds to the above theauthority to facilitate information exchange byassisting other Federal offices and agencies toimprove their own data classification andstorage, developing governmentwide goals forstandardized and compatible informationsystems, and providing governmental assist-ance for related improvements in the privatesector. This could add some small but perhapssignificant benefits for users inside and out-side Government, for example, assisting aFedera l agency to fu r the r deve lop i t smaterials-related data collection or assistingState agencies or private firms just developingsuch collections. Development of standardizedand compatible systems could tend to stimu-late computerized interconnection betweenFederal agencies.

202

Thus arrangements at the incrementalchange level could lead to a marginal improve-ment in support for governmental planningand priority selection, and could moderatelystrengthen the ability of Federal officials tocope with materials-related problems. Thesearrangements could aid in the interagency ex-change of materials information, and couldstimulate some possible revision in reportingrequirements for data from the materials in-dustry.

Improved information services, if used bythe private sector, could make a small but sig-nificant contribution to industrial planningand clarification of substitution and R&D op-tions. Parallel improvements in the congres-sional agencies (e.g., CBO, CRS, GAO) couldupgrade the information support available toCongress for materials policymaking. Thus,overall, there could be benefits (as well as dol-lar costs) for both executive and legislativeagencies, benefits for industry and possibly foruniversities and research organizations, andgeneral public benefits from improved ac-cessibility and quality of materials informa-tion.

2. Intermediate Level

Arrangement 3 (Bureau o f Mate r ia l sStatistics) calls for establishment of a materialsinformation office within an existing agency,The office will have a “clearinghouse” func-tion (to provide data collected and analyzed byother agencies directly to users) as well as thereferral service, and a statistical capabilitywith a summary data base, The office willhave some authority to check and verify infor-mation provided by other agencies, as well asthe responsibility for improvement of existingsystems provided in arrangement Z.

The statistical reports will supplement thosealready produced in several agencies, thusproviding some additional benefits for Federalpolicy analysts and decisionmakers. By mak-ing such statistics generally available, it could

provide larger benefits to the private sector,chiefly to smaller firms who do not presentlysupport this activity on their own. The neteffect may tend to offset the information dis-advantages of small firms relative to largercorporations. Similar benefits could accrue topublic interest groups, and the public at largemight be assisted (through the intermediaryactivities of the media and educators) to a bet-t e r unders t and ing o f ma te r i a l s - re l a t edproblems and the rationale behind govern-mental policy and proposed actions. Thisassumes that the media and educators willtend to use such statistical reports in the sameway cost-of-living and unemployment figuresare now used.

Perhaps as important, the bureau could pro-vide a focus for the organization and integra-tion of existing Government materials infor-mation systems and could permit applicationof the materials cycle concept to support thepolicymaking process. The new bureau couldrepresent a significant impact for the parentagency, in terms of increased responsibility,budget, and constituency. While other agen-cies will still retain existing responsibilities fordata collection and dissemination, they mayperceive the bureau as representing a potentialloss of relative influence and public visibility.

A r r a n g e m e n t 4 (Bureau o f Mate r ia l sStatistics and Forecasting) adds to the abovethe responsibility and authority for producingforecasts of materials supply and demand, andfurther analytical support for planning andpolicy formulation. By allowing all agenciesand also industry to check their own projec-tions against —and mesh them with—thebureau’s forecasts, substantial benefits couldaccrue, particularly in contingency planningfor materials shortages where concerted ac-tions in the public and private sectors will beadvantageous. It should be noted, however,that consistency in forecasts can have in somesituations the effects which antitrust legisla-tion is designed to avoid, that is, noncompeti-tive or even collusive activity among businessenterprises, An indirect, small but cumulativeimpact of the forecasting function could be tosupport and stimulate the present movement

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toward research on and discussion of alterna-tive futures,

The addition of forecasting and analyticalrequirements could greatly increase potentialbenefits to governmental policy makers by pro-viding more consistency in the assumptionsused for long-range planning by various agen-cies and the legislative branch, and therebypotentially contribute to broader consensus onmaterials-related issues. These requirementscould add significantly to the ability of Federaldecisionmakers to understand and analyzematerials problems. Federal decisionmakersmay reap secondary benefits if the new re-quirements lead to more informed public par-ticipation which is less apt to be hostile togovernmental objectives. On the other hand,more available information may contribute topublic interventions through court suits andadministrative proceedings. And local govern-ment officials are apt to treat nationalforecasts skeptically where such forecasts con-flict with local perceptions or priorities,

For the private sector, the forecasts andanalysis could aid in industrial planning,clarify materials substitution and R&D op-tions, and could provide a broader basis forG o v e r n m e n t / i n d u s t r i a l c o o p e r a t i o n i nmaterials policy development and implemen-tation. However, the perception of increasedgovernmental activity and involvement inmaterials supply/demand planning could insome industrial quarters raise fears of in-creased constraint. regulation, and loss ofproprietary information. The latter concernmay be accentuated by the possibility of com-puter interconnection between the summarydata base and other executive and legislativeagencies. Conflicts between the public de-mand for access to information and the de-mand for protection of confidential informa-tion on the part of industry could very likelyarise. Development of specific standards ofconfidentiality y for sensitive materials informa-tion will likely be stimulated,

3. Maximum Level

Arrangement 5 calls for the establishment of

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a new executiveMaterials Statisticsment 6 (MaterialsAdministration) ising and analysis to

agency (here called theAdministration). Arrange-Statistics and Forecastingsimilar, but adds forecast-the clearinghouse/referral,

statistical, and data processing and collectioncapabilities of arrangement 5. In addition, botharrangements provide for authority wherenecessary to verify data at the original sourceof collection.

A new agency obviously implies muchgreater costs in money and manpower than theincremental and intermediate levels of change.It also implies much higher visibility and prob-ably much more responsibility and influencefor materials information than would be thecase for an office in an existing agency. And anew agency could exhibit a much stronger ten-dency to aggregate materials information andanalysis. Establishing a new agency couldcreate a new force in materials-related ac-tivities and may constitute a significant loss ofinfluence, personnel, and constituency for ex-isting agencies. Additional authority to deter-mine procedures for collection and validationof materials data might lead to new demandsand checks on other agencies.

Conflict between public requests for infor-mation, under the Freedom of InformationAct, and industry demands for protection ofsensitive and confidential information couldbecome more important with a new agency.The agency’s independent collection andvalidation authority will require appropriatesafeguards for protection of data prior to its ag-gregation into a summary data base.

At the level of visibility, activity, and in-fluence associated with a new agency, the pro-duction of forecasts and analysis could serveto alert the private sector to impending policydevelopments and constraints—includingpossibilities for regulation or for subsidywhere such are needed-early enough for in-dustry to respond on a timely basis. An impor-tant impact at this level could be a strongstimulation for long-range and contingencyplanning and priority selection in both the

public and private sectors, This in turn i s

likely to arouse controversy over the role ofthe Government in economic and social plan-ning, Nonetheless, the establishment of a newagency could likely contribute to industry’scapability to meet national material needsthrough improved business planning andclarification of substitution and R&D options,

The h igh l eve l o f ana ly t i ca l suppor tcapability and the provision of the summarydata bank could provide major benefits topolicy makers in a wide range of areas, fromstockpiling and materials conservation to in-ternational trade negotiations and nationalsecurity affairs, In all of these areas, however,information (and forecasts of supply and de-mand) is only one of many variables; thereforethe impacts, while often significant, are inmost cases cumulative over time and must bekept in perspective. For example, benefits toState and local decisionmakers may be out-weighed by distrust or resentment of Federalinvolvement, resis tance to growth in theFederal bureaucracy, and possibly from dis-ruption of established contacts in the existingFederal agencies.

Arrangement 7 (Materials InformationCommission) differs from other arrangementsat the maximum change level primarily in twoways: it proposes that the new agency be anindependent agency rather than an executiveagency, and i t also proposes addit ionalauthority for collection of data as needed forthe development of a detailed data base, insome cases superseding the activities of exist-ing agencies, It should again be noted that inall other arrangements, data collection (as op-posed to accessing, categorizing, classifying,disseminating, and in some cases analyzing)remains the responsibility of existing agenciesand falls under the existing safeguards andrestrictions imposed by their enabling legisla-tion, A commission would likely be more inde-pendent than the other arrangements butwould have at least three possible disadvan-tages. Oversight by OMB might be avoided,and oversight by congressional committeesmight be reduced. Also a commission might be

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somewhat out of the mainstream of policy- stitutional disruption is possible since existingmaking activity, and its activities could patterns of data exchange and reporting re-therefore tend to be duplicated within execu- quirements and procedures will be subject totive branch agencies. Finally, significant in- major revision.

H. OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS

This overall summary suggests which po-tential impacts of the institutional arrange-ments are likely to be most important tosociety, and whether these impacts are likelyto be beneficial, mixed, or detrimental. Thus,the summary reflects both the magnitude anddirection of impacts.

The f irs t dimension, magnitude, is ananalytical judgment based on the detailed im-pacts of identification and analysis of earliersections. On the other hand, the direction ofimpact, while also based on the specifics of theanalysis, is essentially a value judgment whenviewed from the perspective of society as awhole. In the U.S. political system. the Con-gress and the President, as representative ofthe people, are the ultimate arbiters of socialvalue, and have the responsibility to reach anoverall judgment of social benefit and cost ofthe arrangements,

1. Impacts Judged To Be Beneficial

The most important beneficial impacts aremanifested at or above the intermediate levelof improvement and change represented bythe Bureau o f Mate r i a l s S ta t i s t i c s andForecasting. These impacts include:

. General strengthening of the FederalGovernment’s capabil i ty to forecastshortages and crises, make contingencyplans, and thus better understand anddeal with materials-related problems;

. Substantially improve integration andorganization of existing Federal Govern-ment materials information systems so asto provide better support for materialspolicymaking:

. Contribution toward a growing capabilityand tendency for identification of objec-t ives and p r io r i ty se l ec t ion in thematerials-related policymaking functionsin both Government and the private sec-tor; and

. Contribution to the capability of the in-dustrial sector for short- and long-rangecorporate planning, including clarifica-tion of materials substitution and R&Doptions, as a basis for meshing corporateplans with the needs of society as per-ceived by Federal policy makers and forgenerally strengthening private sectorcapability to meet national materialsneeds.

Additional cumulative and important im-pacts (also judged to be beneficial) include:

Reduction in the information disadvan-tage of smaller firms relative to largerfirms;

Increased public access to information;

Inc reased pub l i c under s t and ing o fmaterials-related problems through themedia and educational institutions:

Improvements in materials-related publicaffairs programming and curriculumdevelopment through application of thematerials life-cycle concept; and

Opportunities for both intergovernmental(Federal-State-local) and internationalcooperation in materials problemsolving.

2. Impacts Judged To Be Mixed

Certain potential impacts must be viewed as

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beneficial or detrimental in relation to an ob-server’s values. Many of the potential impactspoint toward an overall stimulation of plan-ning processes in the mixed U.S. economy,with a higher degree of cooperation betweenGovernment and industry, particularly largecorporations, Another possible impact is in-creased opportunity for monitoring thematerials-related activities of both businessand Government . S imi la r ly , some wi l lwelcome and others will view with alarm thelikelihood that more fully integrated materialsinformation systems will lead to greater use ofcompute r -based ana lys i s in suppor t o fmaterials policymaking. Finally, despite theclear benefits to private as well as public sec-tor materials decisionmaking, some will dis-trust or perhaps even resent an increasedro le -even i f on lyFederal Governmentmaterials area.

3. Impacts Judged

informational—for theand bureaucracy in the

To Be Detrimental

Important potential detrimental impacts,manifested most significantly at the maximumlevel of improvement and change (a new Ad-ministration or Commission) include:

● P o t e n t i a l , w h i c h w i t h a p p r o p r i a t esafeguards is probably controllable, foraccidental disclosure or deliberate misuseor abuse of sensitive information, thusdamaging the competitive position ofsome firms;

. Disbenefit to those who have profited(economically or politically) by controlover limited information or to agencieswhose constituency, funding, or mandatemay suffer disturbance by creation of anew office or agency; and

. Increased direct dollar costs of materialsinformation systems integration or im-provement.

The first detrimental impact—the potentialfor harmful and unwarranted disclosure of pri-va te in fo rmat ion —apparen t ly cou ld beavoided at the intermediate level of improve-ment and change, and at least moderated or

206

controlled at the maximum change level. Mostof the data supplied by individual companieswould be legitimately considered confidentialunder the Freedom of Information Act, andadditional protection from harmful public dis-closure of sensitive corporate information isfound in many other existing statutes andregulations, At the maximum change level (anew Administration or Commission), there isgreater potential for data security problems

associated with extensive use of computerdata bases and interconnections. Thus addi-tional legal, technical, and administrativesafeguards may be needed.

The second impact—a disbenefit to thosewho profit by control over limited informationor to other agencies whose constituency, fund-ing, or mandate may be disturbed—is a poten-tial public benefit or is neutralized in the longrun. Disbenefits to particular groups or agen-cies must be weighed against the publicbenefits of an improved informational basisfor public policymaking and better integrationand organization of existing Federal Govern-ment materials information systems, amongthe other beneficial impacts discussed earlier

4. Conclusions RegardingPossible Impacts

The impact analysis suggests the followingconclusions:

●

●

The potential impacts of improvement inorganization and integration of materialsinformation systems in the FederalGovernment appear to be primari lybeneficial. Moreover, the likely detrimen-tal impacts in large measure are avoidable(through use of appropriate safeguards),controllable (within tolerable limits), orjustifiable in the public interest.

At the incremental level of improvementand change (establishment of a MaterialsInformation Referral Office and improve-ment of existing data bases and systemsthrough actions of a Materials Informa-tion Coordinating Board), all impactscould be minimal or marginal. Benefits do

not appear to be of major or overridingsignificance, and costs appear to benegligible.

At the intermediate level of improvementand change (establishment of an Office orBureau o f Mate r i a l s S ta t i s t i c s and ●

Forecasting, or the equivalent), many im-pacts could become significant. At thislevel and above, some of the potential im-pacts appear to be critical or of overridingimportance relative to other trends insociety, t h e G o v e r n m e n t , a n d t h eeconomy. And even those impacts whichin the short-run are marginal or minimalmay assume cumulative importance over

CHAPTER VII

time. Overall, potential benefits of aBureau o f Mate r i a l s S ta t i s t i c s andForecasting (or the equivalent) are judgedto substantially outweigh any potentialdetrimental impacts,

At the maximum level of improvementand change (elevation of the materials in-formation office or bureau to agencystatus in the form of an Administration orCommission), several impacts could bevery beneficial, However, at this level thepossible detrimental impacts or costscould be significant enough to warrantvery careful consideration of the trade-offs involved,

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