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Chapter 6
The Goals of Macroeconomic Policy
When men are employed, they are best contented.
BENJAMIN FRANKLIN
Inflation is repudiation.CALVIN COOLIDGE
Goals of Macroeconomic Policy
• Economic growth – ingredients– Aggregate supply (Chapter 7 and 10)
– Aggregate demand (Chapter 8 and 9)
2
Goals of Macroeconomic Policy
• Macroeconomics policy– Growth policy (target: long-run growth)
• Make economy grow faster in long-run
– Stabilization policy (target: short-run business cycles)• Manage aggregate demand• Avoid high unemployment• Avoid high inflation
3
Goals of Macroeconomic Policy
• Achieving rapid growth while keeping Achieving rapid growth while keeping both unemployment and inflation lowboth unemployment and inflation low
1. The Goal of Economic Growth
• Economic growth– Increasing standard of living
• Roman Empire to Industrial Revolution– Little economic growth
• Per-capita income– Decreased
» Former Soviet Union» Poorest African countries
• U.S. standard of living – Increased – factor of 8 since 1900
5
Productivity Growth: From Little Acorns…
• Small differences in growth rates– Enormous difference – long run
• 109 years; 1870 – 1979– Compound annual growth
• U.S. – 2.3%• U.K. – 1.8%• Japan – 3%
6
Productivity Growth: From Little Acorns…
• Labor productivity– Amount of output
– One worker produces• In an hour (or a week, or a year) of labor
– Output = GDP• Labor productivity = GDP per hour of workGDP per hour of work
7
Productivity Growth
• Productivity growth– Almost everything in long run
• Rising productivity– Raising standard of living – long run
• Long periods of time– Small differences
• Rates of productivity growth• Compound over time
– Enormous difference to society’s prosperity8
Productivity Growth
• Productivity growth– Reduction of poverty
– Increases in leisure time
– Increases in country’s ability to finance• Education• Public health• Environmental improvement• Arts
9
Potential GDP & Production Function
• Potential GDP– Real GDP
– Economy would produce
– Labor & other resources - fully employed
• Labor force– Number of people
– Holding or seeking jobs
10
Potential GDP & Production Function
• Estimate potential GDP– Available inputs
• Produce output
– Available technology
• Production function– Volume of output produced
– Given inputs
– Given available technology
11
The economy’s production function
Figure 1
12
0 Labor input
(hours)
Rea
l GD
P
(a) Effect of better technology (b) Effect of more capital
L0
Y0
K
M
Y1
A
0 Labor input
(hours)
Rea
l GD
PL0
Y0
K0
K1
Y1
A
B
Potential GDP & Production Function
• Along production function: depends on labor input– Holding constant
• Capital• Technology
• Production function – shifts upward– Improved technology
– More capital
13
Growth Rate of Potential GDP
• Growth rate of potential GDP– Depends on
• Growth rate of labor forcelabor force• Growth rate of capital stockcapital stock• Rate of technical progresstechnical progress
• GDP = Hours of work ˣ Output per hour
= Hours of work ˣ Labor productivity
14
Growth Rate of Potential GDP
• Growth rate of potential GDP = = Growth rate of labor input +
+ Growth rate of labor productivity
• Capital is incorporated into labor productivity
• 1995-2007 actual GDP growth rate = 3.1%– Growth rate of labor input = 1%
– Growth rate of labor productivity = 2.1%15
Recent growth rates of real GDP in the united states
Table 1
16
YearsGrowth Rate
per Year
1995-19971997-19991999-20012001-20032003-20052005-20071995-2007
4.1%4.32.22.13.42.53.1
Actual vs Potential GDP
• Growth rates: Actual & Potential GDP– Over long periods of time
• Similar
– Over short periods of time• Diverge sharply• Cyclical fluctuations
Actual and potential GDP in United States since 1954
Figure 2
18
2. The Goal of Low Unemployment
• Unemployment rate– Number of unemployed people / labor
force
• If actual GDP grows slower than potential– Unemployment rate – rises
• If actual GDP grows faster than potential– Unemployment rate – falls
19
The economic costs of high unemployment
Table 2
20
Year
CivilianUnemployment
Rate
CapacityUtilization
Rate
Real GDP LostDue to IdleResources
195819611975198219922003
6.8%6.78.59.77.56.0
75%77.373.471.379.473.4
4.8%4.15.48.12.62.2
Human Costs of High Unemployment
• Unemployment rates– Lower
• Married men• Whites• Well-educated people
– Higher • Teenagers • Nonwhites • Blue-collar workers
21
Human Costs of High Unemployment
• Human costs of unemployment– Income loss
– Hunger, cold, ill health
– Psychological cost
– Unemployment insurance
– Social welfare programs
22
Unemployment rates for selected groups, 2007
Figure 3
23
Counting the UnemployedBLS Category:• Employed
– People currently working• Full time or part time
• Unemployed– People not currently working
• Temporarily laid-off, expected to return• Actively looking for a job (4 weeks)
• Not in labor force (discouraged workers)– Not looking for work
• When they quit, unemployment rate ↓ 24
Counting the Unemployed
• Hidden / disguised unemployment– Involuntary part-time
– Loss of overtime
– Shortened work hours
– Discouraged workers
– Not included in official unemployment statistics
25
Types of Unemployment
• FrictionalFrictional unemployment• Normal turnover in labor market• Temporarily between jobs
– Moving / changing occupations
• StructuralStructural unemployment • Displaced by automation• Skills - no longer in demand (US textile and
manufacturing industries)
• CyclicalCyclical unemployment• Decline in economy’s total production• Rises during recessions 26
Full Employment
• Full employment– Everyone willing & able to work can find a
job
– Only frictional and structural unemployment exist
– “Full Employment” = zero cyclical unemployment zero unemployment
– 4-6%
27
Unemployment Insurance
• Unemployment insurance– Government program
– Replaces some wages lost (average weekly benefit check is $288 in 2007)• Eligible workers who lose their jobs
• Benefits of UI– Cushion to unemployed, prop up
aggregate demand during recession
– “built-in stabilization”
28
Unemployment Insurance
• Payroll taxes & Unemployment benefits– Spread cost of unemployment
– Doesn’t eliminate basic economic cost
• Higher unemployment benefits– Disincentive to look for job
– Unemployment rate even higher
29
3. The Goal of Low Inflation
• Purchasing power– Of a given sum of money
– Volume of goods & services
• Real wage rate– Purchasing power of wages
– Wage rate – adjusted for inflation
– Nominal wage divided by price index
30
Rates of change of wages and prices in the United States since 1948
Figure 4
31
Inflation: Myth and Reality
• Myth: inflation erodes real wages
• Wage rate tends to rise with inflation, so realreal wage rate is not systematically eroded by inflation.
32
Reason for Nominal Wages to Increase
Amount
Higher productivityCompensation for higher prices
2%3%
Total 5%
Inflation: Myth and Reality
• Inflation– Increase in “average price”
• Relative price of item– In terms of price of other item
• Inflation– Not to blame
– Some goods become more expensive• Relative to others
33
Pure inflation
Table 3
34
Item Last Year’s Price This Year’s Price Increase
Candy barMovie ticketAutomobile
$0.506.00
9,000
$0.556.60
9,900
10%1010
Real-world inflation
Table 4
35
Item Last Year’s Price This Year’s Price Increase
Candy barMovie ticketAutomobile
$0.506.00
9,000
$0.507.50
9,450
0%255
Inflation: Redistribution of Income & Wealth
• Redistribution caused by inflation– Harm: lenders
– Gain: borrowers
– Inflation does not systematically steal from the rich to the poor, nor the reverse
36
Real vs. Nominal Interest Rates
• Expected inflation• Unexpected inflation• Real rate of interest
– Percentage increase in purchasing power• Borrower pays to lender• For borrowing
– Lenders• Increased ability - purchase goods & services
37
Real vs. Nominal Interest Rates
• Nominal rate of interest– Percentage
• Borrower – pays back• Exceeds money borrowed
– No adjustment for decline in purchasing power• From inflation
38
Real vs. Nominal Interest Rates
• Nominal interest rate =
Real interest rate + ExpectedExpected inflation rate• If inflation accurately predicted
– No income redistribution
– Expected rate of inflation = Actual rate of inflation
39
Real vs. Nominal Interest Rates• Example: John wants to borrow $1000
from Nancy. Both agreed real interest rate = 3%
• If both expect inflation = 6%, nominal interest rate = 9%
• If actual inflation is 2%, Nancy gains. Her real interest rate = 7%
• If actual inflation is 8%, John gains. He only pays real interest rate = 1%
Inflation Distorts Measurements • Confusing real and nominal interest rates
– Nominal 12% in 1980 (inflation 10%) vs. 6.5% in 2006 (inflation 2.5%)
• Malfunctioning tax system– Taxes on nominal interest and nominal
capital gain– During high inflation era, although capital
gain is positive, real capital gain might be negative
– Discourage saving and investment
• Real interest rate mattersReal interest rate matters 41
Other Costs of Inflation
• Rapidly changing prices– Riskier to enter long-term contracts
– Economic stagnation
– Shop around more, increases searching costs
42
Costs of Low vs. High Inflation
• Steady inflation– More predictable
• Than variable inflation
– Smaller social & economic costs
• Average level of inflation– Steady inflation at 6% per year
• More damaging than• Steady inflation at 3% per year
• Hyperinflation 43
Costs of Low vs. High Inflation
• Low inflation– Doesn’t necessarily lead to high inflation
• Inflation– Sometimes speeds up
– Sometimes slows down
• Runaway inflations– When government prints incredible
amounts of money• Finance wartime expenditure
44
Summary
• Dual task for macroeconomics – Growth policy on AS side
– Stabilization (demand-management) policy on AD side
• Economic growth = productivity growth• Unemployment rate: measurement and
three types• Cost of inflation
APPENDIX
How statisticians measure inflation• Index number
– Cost of market basket of goods• Relative to its cost in “base” period
46
100
year base in
basket market of Costyear given in
basket market of Cost
year given in CPI
APPENDIX
Index numbers for inflation• Index number problem
– Changing relative prices
– No “perfect price index”• Correct for every consumer
– Statistical index• Understate increase in cost of living
– Some families
• Overstate increase in cost of living– Other families
– Index - “average” family47
APPENDIX
Consumer price index• Consumer price index (CPI)
– Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
– Monthly
– Representative• Typical urban household budget
– Same bundle of goods & services
48
Results of Student Expenditure Survey, 1983
Table 5
49
Item Average
PriceAverage Quantity
Purchased per Month Average Expenditure
per Month
HamburgerJeansMovie ticketTotal
$0.8024.005.00
7014
$562420
$100
Prices in 2007
Table 6
50
Item Price Increase over 1983
HamburgerJeansMovie ticketTotal
$1.2030.007.00
50%2540
Cost of 1983 student budget in 2007 prices
Table 7
51
70 Hamburgers at $1.201 pair of jeans at $304 movie tickets at $7Total
$843028
$142
APPENDIX
Using price index: ”deflate” monetary figures
• Deflating– Process - find real value
• Some monetary magnitude
– Divide by some appropriate price index
52
1002007 ofindex Price
2007 in spending Nominal
2007 in
spending Real
APPENDIX
Using a price index to measure inflation• Inflation
– Rate of increase in price level
– CPI2006 = 201.6
– CPI2007 = 207.3
– CPI2007 / CPI2006 = 207.3/201.6 = 1.028
– Inflation = 2.8%
53
APPENDIX
GDP deflator• GDP deflator
– Price index
– Used to deflate nominal GDP
– Broad measure of economy-wide inflation• Includes prices
– All goods & services in economy
54
100deflator GDP
GDP Nominal GDP Real