Chapter 24 Strategies and Rules for Monetary Policy Introduction to Economics (Combined Version) 5th Edition

Chapter 24 Strategies and

Rulesfor Monetary

Policy

Introduction to Economics (Combined Version) 5th Edition

The Search for a Strategy The goals of macroeconomic

policy are stability and prosperity.

What kind of strategy is best? Would it be a strategy of fine

tuning that makes frequent changes to policy and reacts to every small event?

Or a strategy of policy rules that sets policies in advance for greater transparency and predictability?


Fine-Tuning in the U.S. Economy U.S. policymakers

attempted to fine-tune the economy in the 1960s and 1970s.

Because of lags, forecasting errors, and time-inconsistency, the result was a series of business cycles with increasing inflation and unemployment.


Lags Inside lags are delays

between the time a problem develops and the time a decision is taken to do something about it.

Examples: Delays in data collection Time needed to conduct

meetings, prepare reports, and reach decisions

Outside lags are delays between the time a decision is made and the time actions affect the economy.

Examples: Delays in implementing a

decision Delays in movements along

and shifts in aggregate supply and demand curves


Inside Lag: Example The U.S. had a mild recession in

Jan-Nov 2001. May 2001 vintage data (the

data available in the middle of the recession) did not show start of recession, even when it was half over.

Fully revised data shows the start of the recession clearly.


Outside Lag: Example After an increase in interest

rates shifts the AD curve, real output first falls and then returns to the natural level after the AS curve shifts.

These estimates show that the process involves a total lag of 1 to 3 years, or longer.

Different studies, based on different periods and methods, do not agree on how long the lag is.


Forecasting ErrorsTo overcome the problem of lags, policymakers

must try to act in advance, based on forecasts.However, forecasts are not accurate. On average,

forecasts of GDP growth have an error of about1 percent for 1 year forecasts in developed countries2 percent for 2 year forecasts in developed countries3 percent for 2 year forecasts in developing countries

Forecasts are least accurate at turning points in the business cycle, just when they are needed most.


Time-InconsistencyTime-inconsistency means the tendency to make

decisions that have good consequences in the short run, but bad consequences in the long run.

Example from everyday life: You stop taking your medication because of bad side effects before you are completely cured.

Example from macroeconomics: Before an election, policymakers use excessive expansionary policy or avoid needed contractionary monetary policy.


Instruments, Targets, and GoalsA policy instrument is a variable that is directly

under the control of policymakers. An operating target is a variable that responds

immediately, or almost immediately, to the use of a policy instrument.

An intermediate target is a variable that responds to the use of a policy instrument or a change in operating target with a significant lag.

A policy goal is a long-run objective of economic policy that is important for economic welfare.


Monetarism Monetarists like Milton

Friedman advocated the use of a steady rate of money growth, approximately equal to the long-run rate of growth of real output, as an intermediate target.

If velocity was reasonably stable, a money growth rule would avoid excessive inflation or deflation.

Equation of ExchangeMV = PQwhere

– M is the money stock– V is velocity– P is the price level– Q is the rate of GDP growth

If V is constant and growth of M equals growth of Q, P will be constant.


Inflation TargetingThe rate of inflation averaged over one or

two years is the main intermediate target.Interest rates are used as the operating

target.Open market operations are used as the main

policy instrument.


Interest Rates as an Operating Target The Fed sets the discount rate on loans to banks and the deposit rate charged

on reserves to form a corridor. The federal funds target rate is set in the middle of the corridor. Open market operations are used to adjust the supply of reserves to keep the

federal funds rate close to its target.


Adjusting the Interest Rate Target Inflation targeting policy sets an upper and lower limit for growth of the price

level to form a cone around the intended inflation target. If the actual inflation rate threatens to move outside the cone, the interest

rate target is raised to slow growth of aggregate demand.


A Taylor Rule A Taylor Rule uses both the

inflation rate and the output gap as intermediate targets.

The interest rate operating target is raised if either the inflation rate or output gap increases.

The interest rate is lowered if inflation or the output gap decreases.

To avoid lags in measuring the output gap, a variation of the Taylor rule uses employment data.


Stanford University economist John Taylor

NGDP Targeting NGDP targeting is a policy under

which the central bank adopts the rate of growth of nominal GDP as its principal intermediate target.

NGDP targeting is more flexible than simple monetary targeting.

Under NGDP targeting, an unexpected increase in velocity could be offset by a slowdown in the rate of growth of the money stock, or vice versa.


During the Great Recession, NGDP dropped far below its potential level.

Appendix to Chapter 24Demand and Supply for Money


The Demand for Money The demand for real

money balances means the real quantity of money people want to hold, other things being equal.

A decrease in the interest rate decreases the opportunity cost of holding money and causes a movement along the demand curve (A to B).

An increase in real income causes the money demand curve to shift to the right (A to C).


A Change in the Interest Rate The supply of money is

controlled by the central bank using open market operations or other instruments.

The following could cause an increase in the interest rate: An increase in real GDP,

shifting the demand curve A decrease in the real

money supply while the price level and real GDP are constant

An increase in the price level while real GDP and the nominal money supply are constant


Documents

Chapter 24 Strategies and Rules for Monetary Policy Introduction to Economics (Combined Version) 5th Edition