MEASURING PUBLIC OPINION

Chapter 18, Section IV

Traditional Methods

Political Party OrganizationsParty leaders in cities communicated with

national party leaders keeping them posted about the publics attitudes and opinions

Interest GroupsOften represent only a small vocal minority

concerned with a specific issue

Traditional Methods

Mass MediaNewscasts that get higher ratings show

more public interestDrawbacks are that media relies on shock

value and this can distort reality○ People that get their news solely from TV tend

to be pessimistic

Traditional Methods

Shock Value Examples

Traditional Methods

Letter WritingInterest groups stage massive letter writing

campaigns generating thousands of lettersNational Write Your Congressman

○ For profit service that sums up legislation and helps you contact your elected officials

Purple Letter○ For profit service

that helps you contact electedofficials

Traditional Methods

Electronic AccessEmailFaxTwitterInternet

Straw PollsUnscientific attempts to measure public

opinionBiased sample – people who respond are

self selected (they choose to respond)

Scientific Polling Sample Populations

The Universe: group of people being studied○ If I asked the senior class where the prom should be

held, what would be the universe?Representative Sample: Small group of people

representative of the universe○ If I asked every fourth senior homeroom the same

question, I would have a representative sample of your class

Random Sampling: Everyone in the universe has an equal chance of being selected○ 1,200-1,500 adults accurately measure the opinions of

212 million people

Scientific Polling

Sampling Error: How much the sample results may differ from the sample universe1,200-1,500 people

give us an error of +/- 3%

Unskewed Polls

Scientific Polling

Sampling ProceduresCluster Sampling – organizing sampling by

geographical divisions○ Race○ Gender○ Age○ Education

Scientific Polling

Poll QuestionsDo you believe serial murderers should be

executed?Do you support capital punishment?

Scientific Polling

Mail and Phone PollsCheaper than in home interviews

○ Less polls are returned (mail only 10-15%)Random Digit Dialing

○ Area code and first three digits are selected and a computer picks the last 4

○ People don’t answer the phone, or don’t want to answer the questions

Scientific Polling

Interpreting ResultsNever completely accurate

○ Honesty?Has improved greatly since its inception in

the 1930’sCan usually predict outcomes within a few

percentage points