Chapter 15 Multinationals and Migration Link to syllabus b. Migration Video of a panel discussion at...
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Chapter 15 Multinationals and Migration Link to syllabus b. Migration Video of a panel discussion at UM-Ford School, March 2011 featuring George Borjas
Chapter 15 Multinationals and Migration Link to syllabus b.
Migration Video of a panel discussion at UM-Ford School, March 2011
featuring George Borjas and Gordon Hanson.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEpyzj7bOdQ
Slide 2
Migration
Slide 3
Figure 15.4 page 367 Labor market effects of migration
Slide 4
S n + S mig = ~0.1% of US GDP b = (% change native wage) x (%
change in employ) x (labors share of national income =
0.5*0.03*0.1*0.7 = 0.1%
Slide 5
Williamson et al. Were Trade and Factor Mobility Substitutes in
History? William J. Collins, Kevin H. O'Rourke, Jeffrey Williamson
NBER Working Paper No.w6059* Issued in June 1997 Trade theorists
have come to understand that their theory is ambiguous on the
question: Are trade and factor flows substitutes? While this sounds
like an open invitation for empirical research, hardly any serious
econometric work has appeared in the literature. This paper uses
history to fill the gap. It treats the experience of the Atlantic
economy between 1870 and 1940 as panel data with almost seven
hundred observations. When shorter run business cycles and long
swings' are extracted from the panel data, substitutability is
soundly rejected. When secular relationships are extracted over
longer time periods and across trading partners, once again
substitutability is soundly rejected. Finally, the paper explores
immigration policy and finds that policy makers never behaved as if
they viewed trade and immigration as substitutes. *Published:
Migration: The Controversies and the Evidence, Faini, R., J. DeMelo
andK. Zimmerman, eds., Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,
1999.
Slide 6
Summary: Pugel, p. 368
Slide 7
Countries with Largest Immigrant Stock Source: UN International
Migration Wall Chart, 2006.
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/2006Migration_Chart/Migration2006.pdf
Slide 8
Countries with highest percentage of immigrants, in total
population Source: UN International Migration Wall Chart, 2006.
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/2006Migration_Chart/Migration2006.pdf
Slide 9
Figure 15.2 p. 364. Gross Immigration Rates into the US and
Canada
Slide 10
Figure 15.3 p. 365. Net Immigration Rates into the EU
Slide 11
U.S.: Immigrants as % of Total Population
Slide 12
US Immigration Data, 2000 (in 1,000s). (Bureau of Census) Total
MedianTotalMedian PopulatioFamily Full Time Inc. Popul.FamilyFull
Time Inc. in USAIncomeMFemalein USAIncome MF US-Born250,314513827
Foreign - Born: All China1,5195744 33 31,108423025India1,0237557 37
By country of birth:Korea8644739 28
Argentin125554131Pakistan2235038 27
Brazil212413225Philippi.1,3696636 32 Colombia510403022Viet
Nam9884731 24 Cuba873413125 Jamaica554453229Egypt1135844 35
Mexico9,177312117Iran2836552 36 Iraq904635 26
Nigeria135533731Israel1106351 37 Australia61776136Jordan474639 31
Canada821625235Kuwait204542 30 Germany707574829Lebanon1065547 31
Ireland156655035Saudi A.213137 28 Italy473544429Syria554941 27
Poland467513926Turkey785242 32 Russia340464131Yemen193226 24
Slide 13
Recent Immigrants Are Younger (2000 Census)GenderMedian Age
US-BornMale34.0 Female36.3 Total35.2 All Foreign-BornMale37.2
Female39.9 Total38.6 Recent Immigrants (< 3 Years USA) Male24.5
Female25.6 Total25.0
Slide 14
US Population, 2000 Census PopulationMedian Age USA-Native
Born250,314,01535 USA-Foreign Born31,107,89038 From: (Place of
birth) Canada820,77049 China & Taiwan1,518,65041
India1,022,55035 Korea864,12538 Philippines1,369,07043 Viet
Nam988,17537 Germany706,70555 Poland466,74047 U.K.677,75050
Italy473,34060 Colombia509,870 Cuba872,715 Ecuador298,625 El
Salvador817,335 Guatemala480,665 Haiti419,315 Honduras282,850
Jamaica553,825 Mexico9,177,485 Nicaragua220,335 Egypt113,395
Iran283,225 Iraq89,890 Israel109,720 Lebanon105,910
Slide 15
MedianMedian Full Time Income HouseholdMalesFemales
US-Natives42,29937,94827,393 Foreign Born39,44430,28825,260
Africa41,19635,77427,508 Asia50,55440,48130,289
Europe42,76344,68229,930 Latin Amer.33,51922,93120,245
Mexico31,50320,81416,518 China &Taiwan49,14643,83033,153
India69,07656,64536,540 Philippines61,82735,70131,658
Vietnam45,74031,42824,495 Lebanon49,70847,00431,236
Iran55,71652,33336,422 Iraq41,17935,14825,934
Jordan41,96339,39130,972 SaudiArabia22,56237,25727,902
Syria43,90941,46427,326 Turkey40,53642,36131,843
Slide 16
LFPRMalesFemales USA-Native Born64.470.758.6 USA-Foreign
Born60.771.050.5 Europe54.265.245.2 Asia62.872.354.2 Latin
America61.271.550.0 Africa71.179.061.2 Iran63.274.949.5
Iraq58.771.942.2 Israel66.479.250.1 Jordan62.580.135.0
Kuwait56.665.640.9 Lebanon61.175.742.1 Mexico60.172.444.6 China
& Taiwan61.569.254.7
Authorized and Unauthorized FBP, 2000, 2011 Unauthorized FBP
FBP-PopulationEstimated Population (2000 Census)20002011
All31,1078,46011,510 Mexico9,1784,6806,800 El Salvador817430660
Guatem481290520 Honduras283160380 China1,519190280
Philippines1,369200270 India1,023120240 Korea864180230
Ecuador299110210 Vietnam988160170
Slide 19
Undocumented Foreigners in the US, 2000 (1,000s)
TotalUnauthorizedUnauthorized as Percent PopulationImmigrantof
Resident Population Population Native Born250,314 Foreign
Born31,1078,46027 Brazil21210047 El Salvador81743053
Guatemala48029060 Honduras28316057 Mexico9,1774,68051 China
(+Taiwan)1,51919013 India1,02312012 Korea86418021
Philippines1,36920015 Source: Homeland Security
Slide 20
Unauthorized, by Employment Status Randy Capp et al. Migration
Policy Institute A Demographic, Socioeconmic, and Health Coverage
Profile of Unauthorized Immigrants in the United States
Slide 21
Unauthorized, by Income Levels
Slide 22
Unauthorized, by Sector of Employment
Slide 23
Health Insurance Coverage of Children
Slide 24
Estimated percent of population who are unauthorized
immigrants, CA 1 5 10 15 New York Times Nov. 23, 2014
Slide 25
Estimated percent of population who are unauthorized
immigrants: Los Angeles [NYT: 11/23/14] 1 5 10 15
Slide 26
Age-Earnings Profile ~1970 Source: Borjas Labor Economics 3 rd
ed. Why peak at age ~45-50? Older people are less productive
physically, and their education & skills obsolete. Medical
costs are higher for older people, so firms pay them less. Some
wealthier older people are willing to retire early, due to
sufficient savings.
Slide 27
Age-Earnings Profile, ~1970. Immigrants & Native-Born
Source: Borjas Labor Economics 3rd ed. Immigrants Natives Mean
income disguises different life time behaviors for immigrants and
native born Immigrants incomes may peak later More immigrants work
longer, earn more in their later years. Also, it is argued that
immigrants curve has shifted downwards since then.
Slide 28
Theoretical Model of Immigrants Income Overall Average
difference Income of immigrants Minus Income of Similarly aged and
educated native born (percent) Years in the US 0 10 20 30 -10 -20
-30 +10 0 Immigrants work harder, and have less accumulated family
wealth Most important issue is the speed with which immigrants find
decent jobs
Slide 29
Ratio of Wages of Recent Immigrants to National Average, 1980
and 2000. Source: Census data from IPUMS Arabs, other MENA, India
& China doing better; Mexicans doing worse Numerical dominance
of Mexican immigrants explains that the skill level of average
immigrant is declining.
Slide 30
Summary of U.S. Immigration Policy (I) US is a country of
immigrants the colonists were immigrants Statue of Liberty
(1876-1886): Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses
yearning to breathe free Nevertheless, Chinese Exclusion Act of
1882 Gentlemans agreement against Japanese, 1908. No discrimination
against Filipinos. [Why so few from India?] Quotas by national
origin, 1924. Restrictions of Europeans. Repatriation of 400,000
Mexicans/Mexican-Americans, 1930s, reversing a long period of
laissez faire regarding farm workers Minimal openings to European
Jews and others fleeing Hitler
Slide 31
US Immigration Policy, (II) McCarran Act of 1952: immigration
quotas by national origins, preferences. 1950s Bracero program:
agricultural workers (predominantly Mexican) 1960s immigration by
points: family reunification, asylum seekers from Taiwan, Cuba,
Viet Nam, requests by employers. But also, large numbers of illegal
immigrants, noticeable after 1970. 1986 Immigration Reform and
Control Act. Penalties/amnesty President George W. Bush was
unsuccessful at a major reform; perhaps would have sought a replay
of the 1986 IRCA. Obama announced temporary amnesty for people who
arrived in US as children.
Slide 32
Current Immigration Issues in US (Borjas/Hanson) 1. Number 2.
Criteria: skill, family links, political and religious refugees.
Increased need for talented foreigners (including grad students).
3. Illegal immigration: Amnesty (IRCA), or expulsion. Enforcement -
wall holding out illegals from Mexico and Central America; question
of penalties to employers, local police and random checks. 9/11 and
national security. This debate has recently been fought on a proxy
basis about Drivers Licenses and Tuition for undocumented people.
Hanson wants US to expand sale of visas at a market rate
($5,000?).
Slide 33
Chart II.19 Inflows of Permanent Settlers into US, 1985-1995
OECD: Trends in International Migrations
Slide 34
U.S.: Foreign Born Population by Country of Origin Source:
Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2001
Slide 35
Return Migrants from U.S., 1907
Slide 36
Employment Based Immigration 1994-1997.US OECD: Trends in
International Migrations
Slide 37
Unauthorized Immigrants, 2000 Source: US Statistical Abstract,
2004
Slide 38
Educational Attainment HighSchool_or_higherBachelor's or higher
US-Natives8325 Foreign Born6224 Africa8643 Asia7943 Europe7729
Latin America4410 Cuba5919 Dominican Repub.489 Mexico304 China
(& Taiwan) 7648 India8869 Philippines8745 Lebanon7837
Jordan8133 Iran8751 Iraq6425
Slide 39
Educational Levels of Foreign Born Populations, 2000 Fraction
Above High School Foreign Born as Percentage of Total
Population
Slide 40
Slide 41
Europe and Canada
Slide 42
International Immigration (from Europe), 1821-1915 Source:
Kenwood and Lougheed
Slide 43
Effect of Migration on Wage Differentials Source: Feenstra and
Taylor, International Trade In 1870, real wages in New World were
three times that of Europe, while in 1913 the differential was two.
Without migration, gap would have risen.
Slide 44
Figure 15.2 page 339 Gross immigration rates into the U.S. and
Canada
Slide 45
Canada: Immigration and Emigration, 1851-1971
Slide 46
Table B.1.1. Canada, Inflows of Foreign Population OECD: Trends
in International Migrations
Slide 47
Canada: Points System Source: Green, The Goals of Canadian
Immigration Policy: A Historical Perspective, CJUR Summer 2004
Slide 48
Figure 15.3 page 340 Net immigration rates into the EU
Slide 49
Figure 2.1 EU Population Growth 1960-2050. Page 20 Source:
different text
Slide 50
Stocks of Foreign Born in some OECD Countries Source: OECD
International Migration Outlook 2006
Slide 51
Source Countries for Foreign Born Four biggest sources:
Australia: U.K., New Zealand, Italy, China Austria: Turkey,
Germany, former Yugoslavia, Poland Belgium: France, Morocco, Italy,
Netherlands Canada: U.K., China, Italy, India Denmark: Turkey,
Germany, Iran, Yugoslavia France: Portugal, Morocco, Algeria,
Turkey Germany: Turkey, Italy, Yugoslavia, Greece Ireland: U.K.,
U.S. Nigeria, Germany Netherlands: Turkey, Suriname, Morocco,
Indonesia Sweden: Finland, Yugoslavia, Iraq, Iran Switzerland:
Italy, Yugoslavia, Portugal, Germany U.K.: Ireland, India, US.
South Africa U.S.: Mexico, China, Philippines, India Source: OECD
International Migration Outlook 2006
Slide 52
Britain to Restrict Workers From Bulgaria and Romania October
25, 2006 By SARAH LYALLSARAH LYALL LONDON, Oct. 24 Britain plans to
severely restrict the ability of people from Bulgaria and Romania
to work here after those two countries join the European Union in
January, the government said Tuesday.BritainBulgariaRomaniaEuropean
Union The new policy represents an enormous change for Britain,
which has been one of Europes main champions of expansion and
openness in the European job market After the new members were
admitted to the European Union in 2004, Britain was shocked by the
number of people from Eastern European countries, particularly
Poland, who poured across the borders, looking for jobs. The
government had predicted that no more than 13,000 arrivals would
come each year, but in the past two years, about 500,000 Eastern
Europeans have registered as workers here, the government said.
Migration experts say that tens of thousands more found
off-the-books jobs, or remained unemployed.
Slide 53
African Slavery Slides
Slide 54
African Slavery
Slide 55
Destination of African Slaves in New World
Slide 56
Map of Major Shipments of African Slaves
Slide 57
Slave Populations, 1750 and 1830 Source: Maddison
Slide 58
Twentieth Century Slavery
Slide 59
China and India
Slide 60
Chinese in South East Asia, ~1965
Slide 61
S.E.Asia immigration Source: Huff and Caggiano Journal Economic
History, March 2007
Slide 62
Chinese and Indian Overseas, ~1925 Source: W.A. Lewis, Growth
and Fluctuations
Slide 63
India: Emigration and Returned Migrants, to 1937 Source:
Kingsley Davis
Slide 64
Emigration from India, by Region Source: Kingsley Davis
Slide 65
Distribution of East Indians, 1940 Source: Kingsley Davis
Slide 66
Table 1.10 Maghrebian, Chinese etc. Residing in Selected OECD
Countries 1999. OECD: Trends in International Migrations
Slide 67
Middle East Labor Flows Major Points: Oil Exporters in Arabia,
and Israel had imported workers (but not Iran nor Iraq. Not much in
Libya). Workers had come from Palestine, Egypt, Lebanon, etc. For
political reasons, trend now is to import Asians Algeria, Morocco
and Tunisia, Turkey send people to west Europe
Slide 68
MidEast
Slide 69
Labor Importers: the GCC Source: mt Table 20b
Slide 70
Arab Labor Exporters to GCC (thousands and %) Source: mt Table
20a
Slide 71
Kuwait: Population
Slide 72
Absolute and Relative size of the Foreign Born Population
Slide 73
Median Incomes by Nativity
Slide 74
Mean Hours and Wages, by Nativity and Years Residence in US
Yearly HoursWages MalesFemalesMalesFemales US Total1,9641,620US
Total19.815.1 All Foreign Born1,9391,613All Foreign Born17.814.8
Arab-US born1,9571,580Arab-US born22.817.2 Arab-Foreign
Born2,0641,536Arab-Foreign Born22.815.9 Foreign Born, by years in
US: 1-2 Non-Arab1,6361,330 Non-Arab14.812.6 Arabs1,5501,113
Arabs15.012.4 3-6 Non-Arab1,8761,530 Non-Arab15.312.9
Arabs1,9151,437 Arabs17.011.7 7-15 Non-Arab1,9211,599
Non-Arab16.514.4 Arabs2,1051,531 Arabs21.017.2 16-30
Non-Arab2,0191,708 Non-Arab19.415.9 Arabs2,2351,678
Arabs24.816.5
Slide 75
Mean Years of Education
Slide 76
Refugees and Asylum Seekers
Slide 77
Refugees, 1999 Source: UNHCR www.unhcr.ch
Slide 78
Refugees, Reported in UN Wall Chart
Slide 79
Inflows of Asylum Seekers, 2000 OECD: Trends in International
Migrations
Slide 80
Link to NYT Graphs of remittances
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/11/17/weekinreview/20071117_MIGRATION_GRAPHIC.html
Slide 81
Workers Remittances in Mexicos B.o.P. (US$ billions)
Slide 82
Top LDCs, Remittance/cap Source: OECD International Migration
Outlook 2006
Slide 83
Top LDCs, Remittance/GDP Source: OECD International Migration
Outlook 2006
Slide 84
Top LDCs Amount Remittance Source: OECD International Migration
Outlook 2006
Slide 85
Cost of Remittances Source: OECD International Migration
Outlook 2006
Slide 86
Slide 87
Migration-Africa
Slide 88
Northern, and Southern Africa
Slide 89
Migration: Western Africa
Slide 90
Migration: Easter and S.E. Asia
Slide 91
Migration: Western Asia
Slide 92
Migration: South-central Asia
Slide 93
Migration: Eastern and Northern Europe
Slide 94
Northern and Southern Europe
Slide 95
Migration: Western Europe, Oceania
Slide 96
Migration: Central America and Caribe
Slide 97
Central America
Slide 98
Migration: the Americas
Slide 99
Stocks of Foreign Born: % of Population
Slide 100
US Immigration Rates, 1901-2000
Slide 101
US Native and foreign born, 1980-2000
Slide 102
Example 8.1 Immigration into the U.S.. Page 265 1800s 1900s The
growth to column represents an estimate of what the present Day
population of that group would be. Thompson text
Slide 103
Immigration Data Source: NYT June 18, 2006
Slide 104
Example 8.3 Immigrants Currently in the US, Legal and
Otherwise. Page 275 Thompson text
Slide 105
Stocks of foreign born all
Slide 106
Stocks of foreign born I Source: OECD International Migration
Outlook 2006
Slide 107
Stocks of foreign born II Source: OECD International Migration
Outlook 2006
Slide 108
Canada: Population Growth by Decade 1851-1971 Source: ?
Slide 109
2000TotalMedianTotalMedian CensusPopulat.Famil Full Time Incom
Popn.Famil Full Time In in USAIncomMaleFemalein USAIncomMFemale
US-Born250,314513827 China1,519574433 Foreign Born-
All31,108423025India1,023755737 By country of birth:Korea864473928
Argentina125554131Pakistan223503827
Brazil212413225Philippines1,369663632 Colombia510403022Viet
Nam988473124 Cuba873413125 Jamaica554453229Egypt113584435
Mexico9,177312117Iran283655236 Iraq90463526
Nigeria135533731Israel110635137 Jordan47463931
Australia61776136Kuwait20454230 Canada821625235Lebanon106554731
Germany707574829Saudi Arabia21313728 Ireland156655035Syria55494127
Italy473544429Turkey78524232 Poland467513926Yemen19322624
Russia340464131
Slide 110
Example 8.8 Immigrant Income. Page 285 Source: Seems to be from
Thompson International Economics
