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Chapter 10 - Energy and Development 329
CHAPTER 10
ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT
HIGHLIGHTS
� Energy is a prerequisite to economic development. The prosperitythat economic development brings, in turn, stimulates demand formore and better-quality energy services. Many countries haveestablished a virtuous circle of improvements in energy infrastructureand economic growth. But in the world’s poorest countries, theprocess has barely got off the ground.
� Energy services enable basic human needs, such as food and shelter,to be met. They also contribute to social development by improvingeducation and public health. During the early stages of development,the absolute amount of energy used per capita and the share ofmodern energy services – especially electricity – are key contributorsto human development.
� For the first time, this Outlook presents an Energy DevelopmentIndex – a composite measure of energy use in developing countriesand of their progression in the use of modern energy services. Thestanding of all regions on that index will increase from now till 2030.Yet only a few Middle East and Latin American countries will havereached the stage of energy development that OECD countries hadattained three decades ago. Most of Africa and South Asia will remainfar behind.
� Almost 1.6 billion people in developing countries did not have accessto electricity in their homes in 2002, representing a little over aquarter of world population. Most of the electricity-deprived are inSouth Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
� The United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals includehalving the proportion of the world’s people living on less than $1 aday by 2015. In our Reference Scenario, the number of peoplewithout electricity in 2015 will be only fractionally smaller than in2002. It is highly unlikely that the UN poverty-reduction target willbe achieved unless access to electricity can be provided to anotherhalf-a-billion of the people we expect will still lack it in 2015. Thiswould cost about $200 billion. Meeting the target also implies a needto extend the use of modern cooking and heating fuels to 700 millionmore people by 2015.
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� Governments need to act decisively to accelerate the transition to modernfuels and to break the vicious circle of energy poverty and human under-development in the world’s poorest countries. This will entail improvingthe availability and affordability of commercial energy, particularly in ruralareas. The rich industrialised countries have clear long-term economic andsecurity interests in helping developing countries along the energy-development path.
This chapter considers the role of energy in development, focusing on developingcountries. It first evaluates the contribution that energy makes to economicdevelopment, the energy dimension of sustainability and the relationship between thetransition to modern fuels and indicators of human development. It goes on to assesstoday’s patterns of energy use in developing countries using the IEA’s newly-createdEnergy Development Index. The relationship between that index and the UNDP’sindex of human development is also analysed. It then looks at prospects fordevelopment based on the Reference Scenario and EDI projections. It also evaluatesthe implications of the targeted reduction in poverty by 2015 set by the UNMillennium Development Goals both for electricity access and reliance ontraditional biomass. The final section considers the policy implications of this analysis.
The Role of Energy in Development Energy is deeply implicated in each of the economic, social and environmentaldimensions of human development. Energy services provide an essential input toeconomic activity. They contribute to social development through education andpublic health, and help meet the basic human need for food and shelter. Modernenergy services can improve the environment, for example by reducing thepollution caused by inefficient equipment and processes and by slowingdeforestation. But rising energy use can also worsen pollution, and mis-management of energy resources can harm ecosystems. The relationshipsbetween energy use and human development are extremely complex. The environmental and social dimensions of human development haveattracted increased attention in recent years. The United Nations DevelopmentProgramme defines human development as the creation of an environment inwhich people can realise their full potential and lead productive, creative livesin line with their needs and interests (UNDP, 2004). In this view, economicgrowth is only one means – albeit a vitally important one – of extending therange of human choices. UNDP has developed a set of numerical indicesdesigned to measure the stage of human development in individual countriesand to facilitate cross-country comparisons (Box 10.1).
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The sustainability of development can be assessed in economic, environmentaland social terms. Energy sustainability requires meeting our energy needs uponwhich economic development depends, while protecting the environmentand improving social conditions. No matter how we define “sustainable”development, most current systems of energy supply and use are clearly notsustainable in economic, environmental or social terms. In practice, sustainabledevelopment is about finding acceptable trade-offs between economic,environmental and social goals.
Energy and Economic GrowthEnergy alone is not sufficient for creating the conditions for economicgrowth, but it is certainly necessary. It is impossible to operate a factory, run a shop, grow crops or deliver goods to consumers without using someform of energy. Most studies of the relationship between energy use andeconomic development have focused on how the latter affects the former.Economic growth almost always leads to increased energy use, at least in the early stages of economic development. Empirical analysis, however,demonstrates the importance of energy in driving economic development(Box 10.2).
The United Nations Development Programme has devised five indicesof human development, including a summary Human DevelopmentIndex (HDI), which is applied to all countries, and a Human PovertyIndex (HPI-1), specially tailored for developing countries. The indicesare updated annually and the results published in the yearly HumanDevelopment Report. The HDI measures life expectancy at birth; adultliteracy and school enrolment; and per capita GDP (adjusted forpurchasing power parity). The HPI-1 measures much the same aspects,but uses different indicators: probability at birth of not surviving toage 40; adult literacy; the percentage of the population without accessto clean water; and the percentage of children who are underweight fortheir age. None of the UN indices explicitly takes energy use intoaccount. Norway, Sweden and Australia headed the HDI rankings for 2002 (UNDP,2004). The 20 lowest-ranked countries, and 31 of the bottom 35, wereall in sub-Saharan Africa. Sierra Leone came last. Among developingcountries covered by HPI-1, Barbados, Uruguay and Chile are ranked themost advanced. Again, the sub-Saharan African countries are clustered atthe bottom.
Box 10.1: UNDP Human Development and Poverty Indices
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The neoclassical production function attributes economic growth toincreases in the size of the labour force and to the amount of capitalavailable, as well as to increases in “total factor productivity” – a catch-allfor any part of growth that is not explained by labour and capital. Byexplicitly incorporating an energy variable in the production function1,we have estimated the contribution energy made to the growth of grossdomestic product in several countries that grew very rapidly in the 1980sand 1990s. The United States was included in the sample for comparison.The results are summarised in Table 10.1. In every country studied, except China, the combination of capital,labour and energy contributed more to economic growth than didproductivity increases.2 Energy contributed significantly to economicgrowth in all countries and was the leading driver of growth in Brazil,Turkey and Korea. Its contribution was smaller in India, China and theUnited States. Our results suggest that energy plays a bigger role incountries at an intermediate stage of economic development, becauseindustrial production often makes a large contribution to economicgrowth at this stage. The energy intensity of manufacturing, expressed asthe amount of energy used to produce a unit of GDP, is generally muchhigher than that of other economic activities. As the economy matures,more energy-efficient technology, whose contribution is captured as a partof total factor productivity, kicks in and the amount of energy needed toproduce a unit of GDP diminishes. The United States is the clearestexample. Recent studies using growth-accounting approaches yieldsimilar results.3
The results also reflect government policies and the resource endowmentof individual countries. Brazil and Mexico, where energy played theleading role in economic growth, have both industrialised rapidly. InIndonesia, the relatively low importance of energy probably reflects thecountry’s policy of importing sophisticated manufacturing technology via
Box 10.2: Assessing the Contribution of Energy to Economic Growth
1. We used the standard Cobb-Douglas formulation: Yt = At × (Kt)α(Lt)
1-β(Et)1-α-β, where Y is output,
K is the stock of capital, L is the labour force, E is primary energy use, A is the economy’s total factorproductivity and t is the time period. See, for example, Collins and Bosworth (1996).2. There are doubts about the accuracy of China’s official GDP data. Many studies have concludedthat official statistics understate GDP and overstate growth rates. This could explain China’s veryhigh productivity growth relative to other countries.3. Ayres and Warr (2003) demonstrate that including energy services measured by useful physicalwork as a factor of production in the standard production function improves the explanation ofthe historical growth path of the US economy since 1900. Productivity is only significant as acontributory factor to growth after the 1970s.
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The complementary relationship between energy use and economic growth isintuitively obvious. Less obvious is the extent to which constraints on theavailability of energy and its affordability can affect economic development.Numerous studies have demonstrated that energy, capital and labour can, inprinciple, be substituted for one another to some degree. An increase in energy-input costs can be compensated by investing more in energy-efficienttechnology, shifting to less energy-intensive production or using more labour,where it is in surplus supply. In practice, structural economic rigidities andinappropriate government policies can impede the ability of the economy toadjust to changes in energy prices. In many poor countries, under-investmentin public utilities, inefficient management, under-pricing and a generallyunattractive climate for private investment cause energy shortages and holdback economic growth and development.
foreign direct investment. Korea has depended heavily on the chemicalindustry as a major engine of growth. Low levels of per capita energy usein India suggest that a lack of available energy may have held backeconomic growth and development there (per capita GDP growth inIndia was lower than in most other regions). It follows that developmentpolicies need to take into consideration energy-infrastructure needs,especially in the poorest and least industrialised regions.
Average Contribution of factors of productionannual and productivity to GDP growthGDP (% of GDP growth)growth
Energy Labour CapitalTotal factor
(%) productivity
Brazil 2.4 77 20 11 -8China 9.6 13 7 26 54India 5.6 15 22 19 43Indonesia 5.1 19 34 12 35Korea 7.2 50 11 16 23Mexico 2.2 30 60 6 4Turkey 3.7 71 17 15 -3United States 3.2 11 24 18 47
Table 10.1: Contribution of Factors of Production and Productivityto GDP Growth in Selected Countries, 1980-2001
Sources: IEA analysis based on IEA databases and World Bank (2004).
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Energy and Human Development To understand better the relationship between energy use and humandevelopment, it is helpful to analyse the different aspects of energy use.We have identified three key indicators of energy use in developingcountries: per capita consumption, the share of modern energy services intotal energy use and the share of the population with access to electricity intheir homes.
Per Capita Energy ConsumptionThe absolute amount of energy used by each individual has historically beena key factor in human development during the early stages of the process.There is a very strong link between per capita energy consumption(commercial and non-commercial) and the UN Human Development Indexfor all countries (Figure 10.1). The link is particularly strong for non-OECDcountries with a HDI value of less than 0.8. Very few countries with percapita energy use of less than 2 tonnes of oil equivalent have a HDI score ofmore than 0.7. Once a country has reached a reasonably high HDI level,variations in its per capita energy use are largely attributable to structural,geographic and climatic factors. For the poorer developing countries,however, the picture is clear: a higher HDI goes hand in hand with increasedper capita energy use.
0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Primary energy demand per capita (toe/cap)
HD
I
OECDNon-OECD
Figure 10.1: HDI and Primary Energy Demand per Capita, 2002
Sources: IEA analysis; UNDP (2004).
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The link between per capita energy use and human development is muchstronger when considering commercial energy alone. Per capita commercialenergy demand is ten times greater in the richest developing countries, such asUruguay and Israel, where less than 5% of the population is classified as poor,than in the poorest countries, such as Nigeria and India, where more than 75%of the population lives on less than $2 a day (Figure 10.2).
0
1
2
3
>75 40-75 5-40 <5
percentage of population living with less than $2 a day
aver
age
prim
ary
ener
gy d
eman
dpe
r cap
ita (t
oe)
Commercial energy Traditional biomass
Figure 10.2: Average Primary Energy Demand per Capitaand Population Living on Less than $2 a Day, 2002
Sources: IEA analysis; World Bank (2004).
The Transition to Modern Energy ServicesAccess to modern energy services is an indispensable element of sustainablehuman development. It contributes not only to economic growth andhousehold incomes, but also to the improved quality of life that comes withbetter education and health services. Without adequate access to modern,commercial energy, poor countries can be trapped in a vicious circle ofpoverty, social instability and underdevelopment. Increased use of modernenergy by households is a key element in the broader process of humandevelopment, typically involving industrialisation, urbanisation andincreased personal mobility. The facts bear this out: the share of modernenergy in overall energy use is strongly correlated with indicators of humandevelopment (Table 10.2).
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As we stressed in WEO-2002, the extensive, and inefficient, use of traditionalbiomass and waste for energy purposes is both a characteristic of poverty anda cause of its persistence. Traditional fuels include charcoal, wood, straw,agricultural residues and dung. Most of such fuels are not traded commercially.Poor people in rural areas, especially women and children, spend much of theirtime gathering firewood. This practice generally leads to scarcity and ecologicaldamage in areas of high population density and strong demand for fuelwood.The use of biomass energy can reduce agricultural productivity, becauseagricultural residues and dung burned in stoves might otherwise be used asfertilizer. Inefficiently burned, biomass can be a major cause of indoor smokepollution. The World Health Organization estimates that, each year, 1.6 millionwomen and children in developing countries are killed by the fumes fromindoor biomass stoves. Over half are in China and India.As incomes rise, households in developing countries typically switch to modernenergy services for cooking, heating, lighting and electric appliances (Table 10.3).How quickly this occurs depends on the affordability of modern energy services,as well as their availability, and on cultural preferences. The process is in mostcases a gradual one. People generally shift first from traditional fuels tointermediate modern fuels, such as coal and kerosene, and finally to advancedfuels, such as liquefied petroleum gas, natural gas and electricity (Figure 10.3). 4
Commercial energyas share of total energy
consumption
Indicator 0-20% 21-40% 41-100%
Average life expectancy at birth (years) 59.8 69.0 69.5Probability at birth of not surviving to 40 (%) 21.7 9.4 9.1Gross school enrolment ratio 52.4 65.4 76.9Children underweight (% of population) 40.9 15.1 11.9Population without access to improved water (%) 20.9 22.9 12.8
Number of countries in sample 30 7 27Per cent of total sample population 42% 39% 17%
Table 10.2: Commercial Energy Use and Human Development Indicators, 2002
Note: Indicators are averages weighted by population based on 64 developing countries for which data areavailable. See the note to Figure 10.5 for the definition of “improved water access”. Sources: IEA analysis; UNDP (2004).
4. The use of traditional fuels in sustainable and efficient ways may be considered a modern energyservice.
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But the transition is rarely straight-line. Some households may leap-frog directlyto the most advanced fuels if they are available and affordable.5 Rising incomesalso boost demand for personal mobility and, therefore, for transport fuels.
Urban areas Rural areasSector/ Low High Low Highend-use income income income income
Households
Cooking Wood, LPG, Wood, Kerosene,charcoal, kerosene, residues, biogas, LPG,
coal coal dung charcoal
Lighting Candles, Electricity, Candles Kerosene,kerosene LPG (or none) LPG,(or none) electricity
Space Wood, residues, Wood, coal, Wood, Wood,heating coal kerosene, residues, dung coal
LPG (or none)
Appliances Batteries Electricity None Electricity(or none) (or batteries)
AgriculturePloughing – – Manual, Diesel,
animal animal
Irrigation – – Manual, Diesel, animal electricity
Food Manual, Diesel,processing – – animal electricity
IndustryMechanical Manual, Diesel, Manual, Diesel,
diesel electricity animal electricity
Process heat Wood, Coal, Wood, Coal, charcoal charcoal, residues, charcoal,
kerosene charcoal kerosene
Table 10.3: Dominant Fuels in Developing Countries by End-Uses
Source: World Bank/WLPGA (2002).
5. See IEA (2002) for a detailed discussion of the transition to modern fuels.
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Kerosene is generally the cheapest fuel for cooking, heating and pumpingwater, and is the easiest to obtain in developing countries. But it is hazardousas a household fuel. Kerosene stoves are a major cause of fires and source ofindoor pollution. Liquefied petroleum gas is a cleaner, safer fuel, but it is poorlydistributed in some regions. The cost of using LPG can also be a problem forvery poor households, because of the initial cost of the gas cylinder (either thedeposit or outright purchase) and the stove, which is usually more expensivethan a conventional kerosene stove.
Access to ElectricityAccess to electricity is particularly crucial to human development. Figure 10.4 plotsper capita electricity consumption against HDI ratings for the largest OECD andnon-OECD countries. The correlation is strong and non-linear. The increase inHDI scores is most rapid relative to electricity use at low levels of consumption. Putanother way, modest increases in per capita electricity use are associated with muchlarger improvements in human development. This is because electricity use in poorcountries is largely a matter of access. Electricity is, in practice, indispensable forcertain activities, such as lighting, refrigeration and the running of householdappliances, and cannot easily be replaced by other forms of energy. As we saw with per capita energy use, HDI reaches a plateau when per capita electricityconsumption attains a certain level – about 5 000 kWh per year.
Biomass7%
Gas12%
Coal12%
Electricity19%
LPG andkerosene
5%
Other oil45%
Biomass60%
75% and over of the population livingwith less than $2 a day
5% and under of the population livingwith less than $2 a day
Gas4%
Coal7%
Electricity7%
LPG andkerosene
4%
Other oil18%
Figure 10.3: Final Energy Consumption per Capita by Fuel and Proportionof People in Poverty in Developing Countries, 2002
Sources: IEA analysis; UNDP (2004).
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Individuals’ access to electricity gives a better indication of a country’s electricitypoverty status than do statistics on their average consumption. Per capitaconsumption data can give a distorted impression where a very small minorityconsumes enormous amounts of electricity, while the majority consumespractically none. Taking the average of the two population segments gives amisleading impression of the prevalence of electricity poverty.We have updated the database on electrification rates that we built for theWEO-2002. We estimate that just over 1.6 billion people6 in developingcountries did not have access to electricity in their homes in 2002, a little overa quarter of the world population. Around two-thirds of the electricity-deprived are in Asia; most the rest are in sub-Saharan Africa. Four out of fivepeople without electricity live in rural areas (Table 10.4). Electrification rateshave improved steadily over recent decades, but population increases haveoffset part of this improvement. As a result, the total number of peoplewithout electricity has fallen by fewer than 500 million since 1990. Rapidelectrification programmes in China account for most of the progress.Excluding China, the number of people without electricity increased steadily over the past three decades. Detailed country-by-country statistics onelectricity access in 2002 can be found in the appendix to this chapter.
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000
kWh per capita
HD
I
Canada
Qatar
SwedenFinland
United States
UAE
MozambiqueZambia
ZimbabweBangladesh
Ethiopia
South Africa
Malaysia
Argentina
Italy
IndiaMorocco
China
Brazil
Indonesia
Figure 10.4: HDI and Electricity Consumption per Capita, 2002
Sources: IEA analysis; UNDP (2004).
6. The figure is slightly lower than that given in WEO-2002 for 2000, mainly because of newconnections.
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Energy Poverty and Human Development IndicesThere is an implicit level of energy development that underlies each level ofhuman development. Yet energy development is never identified per se by thepoverty indices, which focus more on such basic human needs as water, healthand education. Energy is a factor in procuring each of these needs, but it is notfully captured by measuring them. The example of access to clean water, afundamental need, clearly illustrates this point. Among countries which haveachieved high levels of access to clean water supplies, defined here as over 70% of the population, access to electricity varies enormously (Figure 10.5).North African, Middle East and Latin American countries have high rates of electricity access, while sub-Saharan African and South Asian countriesgenerally have much lower rates – extremely low in some cases. Such “energypoverty” is not adequately indicated by non-energy indicators. This hasimportant implications for policy-making. Since energy underlies all economicactivity, human development may be severely impeded by a lack of energyinfrastructure. An index of energy development would, therefore, introduce animportant element in understanding the drivers of human development andidentifying the policies that can achieve it.
Region Rural Urban Total
Africa 416 118 535Sub-Saharan Africa 408 117 526North Africa 8 1 9
Developing Asia 871 148 1 019East Asia and China 192 29 221South Asia 679 119 798
Middle East 13 7 14Latin America 39 1 46Developing countries 1 339 275 1 615OECD and transition economies 7 <1 7
World 1 347 275 1 623
Table 10.4: Number of People without Electricity, 2002 (million)
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Ang
ola
Bang
lade
shBo
tswan
a
Nep
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Para
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Braz
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le Chi
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a
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Ecua
dor
Egyp
t
El S
alva
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Gua
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Iran
Alg
eria
Jam
aica
Jord
an
Keny
a
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non
Libya
Mal
awi
Moz
ambi
que
Nic
arag
ua
Gha
na Yem
enIndo
nesi
a
Pana
ma
Peru
Mor
occoPh
ilipp
ines
Saud
i Ara
bia
Sene
gal N
amib
ia
Sing
apor
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Sout
h A
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Sri L
anka
Thai
land
Tuni
sia
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gua y
Vene
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e
2030405060708090100
010
2030
4050
6070
8090
100
perc
enta
ge o
f pop
ulat
ion
with
acc
ess
to e
lect
ricity
Sub-
Saha
ran
Afri
caN
orth
Afri
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uth
Asi
aM
iddl
e Ea
stEa
st A
sia/
Chi
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tin A
mer
ica
percentage of population with sustainable water access
Figu
re 1
0.5:
Elec
tric
ity a
nd Im
prov
ed W
ater
Acc
ess*
, 200
2
* “Im
prov
ed w
ater
acce
ss” is
def
ined
by
the U
N as
the s
hare
of t
he p
opul
atio
n w
ith re
ason
able
acce
ss to
any
of th
e fol
low
ing
type
s of w
ater
supp
ly fo
r drin
king
: hou
seho
ld co
nnec
tions
,pu
blic
stan
dpip
es, b
oreh
oles
, pro
tect
ed d
ug w
ells,
pro
tect
ed sp
rings
and
rain
wat
er co
llect
ion.
“R
easo
nabl
e acc
ess”
is d
efin
ed as
the a
vaila
bilit
y of
at l
east
20
litre
s per
per
son
per d
ayfro
m a
sour
ce w
ithin
one
kilo
met
re o
f the
use
r’s d
wel
ling.
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The IEA Energy Development IndexTo better understand the role that energy plays in human development, theIEA has devised for this Outlook an Energy Development Index (EDI). It isintended to be used as a simple composite measure of a country’s or region’sprogress in its transition to modern fuels and of the degree of maturity of itsenergy end-use. The index seeks to capture the quality of energy services as wellas their quantity. It is calculated in such a way as to mirror the UNDP’s HDI(Box 10.3). WEO projections for the developing regions can be used to projectfuture trends in EDI values. The index can, therefore, be used to assess the needfor policies to promote the use of modern fuels and to stimulate investment inenergy infrastructure in each region.
The EDI is composed of three dimensions: 1. Per capita commercial energy consumption.2. Share of commercial energy in total final energy use.3. Share of population with access to electricity.A separate index is created for each dimension, using the actual maximumand minimum values (known as “goalposts”) for the developing countriescovered. Performance in each dimension is expressed as a value between 0and 1, calculated using the following formula:
Dimension index =actual value – minimum value
maximum value – minimum value
The index is then calculated as the arithmetic average of the three valuesfor each country. The goalposts used for calculating the EDI in 2002 areas follows:
Indicator Maximum value Minimum valuePer capitacommercial energy use (toe) 9.4 (Bahrain) 0.01 (Togo)
Share of commercial 100 (Israel/Kuwait/ 8 (Ethiopia)energy use (%) Singapore)
Electrification rate (%) 100 (15 countries) 2.6 (Ethiopia)
Box 10.3: The IEA Energy Development Index
This is a first effort to produce an index of energy development. We havedecided to introduce it here to encourage thinking about the role of energy asa contributory factor in development, rather than simply a consequence.
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7. 2002 is the last year for which detailed energy data and human development indices are availablefor developing countries.
We have calculated EDI scores for 75 developing countries for which energydata are available, using 2002 data.7 Figure 10.6 shows selected developingcountries according to their EDI rankings. Detailed results are shown inTable 10.5. Ethiopia and Myanmar are the least developed countries in energyterms. The Middle Eastern and medium-income Latin American countries aregenerally ranked highest, reflecting their high rates of household electrification– often the result of large subsidies – and their limited use of traditionalbiomass. The sub-Saharan African countries, with uniformly low householdincomes and electrification rates, are at the bottom of the rankings.
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
BahrainTunisiaBrazilChina
South AfricaIndonesia
IndiaBangladesh
NigeriaMozambique
Ethiopia
EDI
Figure 10.6: Selected Developing Countries Rankedon the Energy Development Index, 2002
Figure 10.7 shows that, as expected, there is a strong correlation between thetwo indices. This correlation is however non-linear, suggesting that the pace ofimprovement in HDI diminishes as the EDI increases. In other words, the twoindices appear to decouple at higher levels of wealth and human development. Although the rankings on the EDI are broadly similar to those on the HDI,there are notable divergences:� Oil-producing countries are generally ranked much higher in energy
development than in human development, reflecting the abundance and lowcost of commercial energy supplies and the large amounts of energy used in
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Commercial Traditional EDI
Rank Country EDI energy use biomass Electrification HDI vs.per capita use Index HDI
index index ranking
1 Bahrain 0.994 0.984 1.000 0.999 0.8432 Kuwait 0.984 0.953 1.000 1.000 0.838 ↑3 Netherlands Antilles 0.896 0.692 1.000 0.995 ..4 Singapore 0.869 0.608 1.000 1.000 0.9025 Brunei 0.858 0.609 0.973 0.992 0.8676 Saudi Arabia 0.854 0.577 1.000 0.984 0.768 ↑7 Iran 0.834 0.552 0.995 0.954 0.732 ↑8 Chinese Taipei 0.801 0.417 1.000 0.988 ..9 Oman 0.791 0.427 1.000 0.946 0.770 ↑10 United Arab Emirates 0.781 0.369 0.999 0.974 0.82411 Libya 0.775 0.341 0.985 0.998 0.79412 Israel 0.773 0.319 0.999 1.000 0.908 ↓13 Tunisia 0.772 0.538 0.827 0.950 0.745 ↑14 Trinidad and Tobago 0.728 0.195 1.000 0.990 0.80115 Venezuela 0.716 0.214 0.994 0.940 0.77816 Malaysia 0.711 0.203 0.958 0.971 0.79317 Argentina 0.698 0.153 0.990 0.950 0.853 ↓18 Algeria 0.693 0.098 0.996 0.985 0.704 ↑19 Jordan 0.686 0.104 0.999 0.955 0.750 ↑20 Lebanon 0.683 0.118 0.972 0.960 0.758 ↑21 Cuba 0.681 0.122 0.963 0.958 0.809 ↓22 Egypt 0.679 0.078 0.983 0.977 0.653 ↑23 Iraq 0.679 0.044 0.999 0.992 ..24 Thailand 0.677 0.211 0.908 0.911 0.76825 Costa Rica 0.672 0.088 0.960 0.970 0.834 ↓26 Brazil 0.662 0.102 0.938 0.946 0.775 ↓27 Syria 0.657 0.106 1.000 0.866 0.710 ↑28 Chile 0.652 0.140 0.846 0.970 0.839 ↓29 Jamaica 0.646 0.138 0.930 0.870 0.76430 Uruguay 0.640 0.066 0.864 0.990 0.833 ↓31 Ecuador 0.635 0.067 0.941 0.897 0.73532 Dominican Republic 0.617 0.083 0.845 0.923 0.73833 Colombia 0.609 0.056 0.871 0.902 0.773 ↓34 China 0.603 0.080 0.738 0.990 0.74535 Philippines 0.594 0.045 0.846 0.891 0.753 ↓36 Panama 0.589 0.091 0.826 0.851 0.791 ↓37 Morocco 0.589 0.035 0.956 0.774 0.620 ↑38 South Africa 0.588 0.226 0.868 0.671 0.666 ↑39 Paraguay 0.541 0.051 0.718 0.853 0.751 ↓40 Bolivia 0.538 0.046 0.916 0.651 0.681
Table 10.5: Energy Development Index for Developing Countries, 2002
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Commercial Traditional EDI
Rank Country EDI energy use biomass Electrification HDI vs.per capita use Index HDI
index index ranking
41 Peru 0.532 0.037 0.804 0.757 0.752 ↓42 Yemen 0.504 0.022 0.988 0.503 0.482 ↑43 El Salvador 0.489 0.050 0.648 0.769 0.720 ↓44 Guatemala 0.458 0.035 0.496 0.844 0.64945 Honduras 0.420 0.033 0.625 0.601 0.67246 Namibia 0.414 0.051 0.844 0.347 0.60747 Indonesia 0.412 0.054 0.656 0.525 0.692 ↓48 Vietnam 0.409 0.024 0.406 0.797 0.691 ↓49 Sri Lanka 0.409 0.025 0.555 0.645 0.740 ↓50 North Korea 0.407 0.082 0.940 0.200 ..51 Pakistan 0.387 0.030 0.601 0.530 0.497 ↑52 Gabon 0.333 0.061 0.460 0.479 0.64853 India 0.332 0.034 0.519 0.444 0.59554 Nicaragua 0.326 0.032 0.482 0.466 0.667 ↓55 Ghana 0.304 0.016 0.412 0.485 0.56856 Côte d'Ivoire 0.290 0.014 0.349 0.507 0.399 ↑57 Senegal 0.280 0.016 0.510 0.314 0.437 ↑58 Bangladesh 0.267 0.010 0.528 0.263 0.50959 Cameroon 0.253 0.014 0.338 0.407 0.50160 Zimbabwe 0.251 0.032 0.311 0.409 0.49161 Haiti 0.244 0.009 0.389 0.335 0.46362 Nigeria 0.238 0.021 0.246 0.449 0.46663 Sudan 0.229 0.013 0.365 0.310 0.505 ↓64 Benin 0.205 0.010 0.357 0.248 0.42165 Congo 0.189 0.008 0.364 0.196 0.49466 Zambia 0.179 0.018 0.335 0.184 0.38967 Togo 0.176 0.001 0.359 0.170 0.495 ↓68 Eritrea 0.165 0.005 0.305 0.184 0.43969 Angola 0.149 0.022 0.373 0.050 0.38170 Nepal 0.131 0.005 0.129 0.259 0.504 ↓71 Kenya 0.124 0.012 0.271 0.091 0.488 ↓72 DR of Congo 0.118 0.008 0.262 0.083 0.36573 Mozambique 0.107 0.009 0.226 0.087 0.35474 Myanmar 0.091 0.007 0.217 0.050 0.551 ↓75 Ethiopia 0.037 0.002 0.084 0.026 0.359
↑↑ EDI rank is more than 5 ranks higher than HDI ↓↓ EDI rank is more than 5 ranks lower than HDI.. Not available.Sources: IEA analysis; UNDP (2004).
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energy-production and related industries. Saudi Arabia’s EDI, for example,is much higher than Brazil’s, but its HDI is lower.
� EDI rankings in Latin America are generally lower than those for humandevelopment, despite fairly high electrification rates and low use oftraditional biomass. Very low per capita energy consumption accounts for thisdivergence.
� Most sub-Saharan African countries have low scores on both indices,whether they have abundant energy resources or not.
Prospects for Energy DevelopmentEDI Projections to 2030Based on the Reference Scenario projections described in earlier chapters ofthis Outlook, EDI scores are expected to continue to rise in all developing regions.The index for developing countries as a whole is projected to rise from 0.48in 2002 to 0.57 in 2030. The biggest increases are expected to occur in Africa andIndia (Figure 10.8). In 2030, these two regions will, nonetheless, remain the mostunder-developed in energy terms, and the Middle East and Latin America themost developed. By the end of the projection period, most of the developingregions will remain well below the stage of energy development reached byOECD countries three decades ago. The exception will be the Middle East,which will have reached exactly that level by 2030.
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
EDI
HD
I
Mozambique
Ethiopia Côte d'Ivoire
Nigeria SenegalNepal
Myanmar Morocco
Pakistan Yemen
Sri Lanka
Nicaragua
GhanaSouth Africa
India
Egypt
ChileUruguay
IranSaudi Arabia
Kuwait
Bahrain
SingaporeIsrael
Argentina
Figure 10.7: EDI and HDI in Developing Countries, 2002
Sources: IEA analysis; UNDP (2004).
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In all regions, each of the three dimensions included in the EDI increases in linewith rising incomes. Per capita energy consumption and the share of commercialenergy in total final consumption are projected to grow steadily throughout theprojection period.8 Average per capita consumption in developing countries willrise from 0.82 tonnes of oil equivalent in 2002 to 1.2 toe in 2030. The share ofcommercial energy will rise from 80% to 88% over the same period. The numberof people relying on traditional fuels for cooking and heating will, nonetheless,grow, from just under 2.4 billion in 2002 to over 2.6 billion in 2030 (Table 10.6).9
The share of India and Africa together in the total number of these people willgrow from just over half to almost two-thirds. The proportion of the populationusing traditional fuels will remain highest in sub-Saharan Africa.
Electrification rates will also rise over the projection period, from 66% ofthe population of developing countries in 2002 to 78% in 2030 (Table 10.7).10
In the Middle East, North Africa, East Asia and Latin America, electrification
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Africa India China Brazil Middle East
EDI
2002 2015 2030
OECD EDI average in 1971
Figure 10.8: Outlook for Energy Development Index by Region
Note: In the absence of historical data for electricity access, the EDI for IEA countries in 1971 is based on anassumed average electrification rate of 90%.
8. See Chapter 8 for a detailed discussion of these trends.9. The estimates of the number of people relying on biomass for cooking and heating are based onthe assumption that biomass demand per capita in each region is constant over the Outlook periodat 2002 levels. This is a conservative assumption, establishing a lower limit on the number of peoplewho rely on biomass for cooking and heating. The energy demand projections for biomass take intoaccount technological factors that increase the efficiency of biomass use.10. Our projections of electrification rates are prepared using the electrification module of the IEA’sWorld Energy Model (described in Annex C). These projections are determined by many factors,including incomes, fuel prices, population growth and technological advances.
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2002 2015 2030
Africa 36 44 58North Africa 94 98 99Sub-Saharan Africa 24 34 51
South Asia 43 55 66East Asia and China 88 94 96Latin America 89 95 96Middle East 92 96 99
Developing countries 66 72 78
Table 10.7: Electrification Rates by Region (%)
rates will approach 100%. Although rates will improve substantially in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, they will remain relatively low. By 2030, halfthe population of sub-Saharan Africa will still be without electricity. Despite rising electrification rates, the total number of people withoutelectricity will fall only slightly, from 1.6 billion in 2002 to just under 1.4 billionin 2030 (Figure 10.9). In fact, 2 billion more people will gain access toelectricity, but this will be largely offset by rising world population. Most of thenet fall of 200 million people who will lack electricity will occur after 2015.The number of people without electricity will fall in Asia, but will continue toincrease in Africa, peaking at just under 600 million by the end of the 2020s.These projections are highly dependent on incomes and on electricity-pricingpolicies, which determine the affordability of electricity. Investment inelectricity-supply infrastructure and rates of rural-urban migration are alsoimportant factors. Access to electricity will remain easier in urban areas, but the
2002 2015 2030
Africa 646 805 996South Asia 746 844 883
India 595 665 693East Asia and China 925 829 693
China 704 618 505Latin America 79 68 60
Developing countries 2 398 2 549 2 634
Table 10.6: Population Relying on Traditional Biomassfor Cooking and Heating (millions)
Note: Middle East is not included as the numbers are negligible.
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10
Figure 10.9: Electricity Deprivation (million)
absolute number of people without electricity will increase slightly in townsand cities, while it will fall in the countryside with continuing rural-urbanmigration (Figure 10.10). Detailed projections of electrification rates by urbanand rural areas can be found in Table 10.A4 at the end of this chapter. The EDI projections point to the prospect of considerable advances in humandevelopment in all major regions, even though big differences among regionswill remain. Expected improvements in living standards in the developingcountries depend on heavy investment in energy-supply infrastructure, both toproduce for export and for domestic supply. The capital required will representa sizable proportion of total savings in many regions, especially Africa (IEA,2003). Other sectors, of course, will also be making large claims on thesecountries’ limited financial resources. Much of the funding will, therefore, needto come from abroad in the form of direct investment and development aid.The latter will need to play an important role in the poorest countries, wherethe lack of existing infrastructure and a poor commercial environment aremajor deterrents to inward investment.
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Energy Development and the Millennium Goals
In the year 2000, the United Nations adopted eight “Millennium DevelopmentGoals”, the first of which was to eradicate extreme poverty (Box 10.4). One of thetwo targets established to measure progress in achieving this goal was halving theproportion of people living on less than $1 a day by 2015. Because of the stronglink between income and access to electricity, meeting this target implies anenormous increase in electrification rates in very poor countries. Put another way,past experience shows that much higher rates of access would normally beexpected to accompany the considerable improvement in prosperity thatachievement of the poverty-reduction goal would imply. Indeed, expandingelectricity access would directly contribute to that objective.
In our Reference Scenario, the overall number of people without electricity in2015 will still be just under 1.6 billion – practically unchanged from today. Thisfinding suggests that, in the absence of rigorous new policies, the target of halvingthe proportion of people living on less than $1 a day is very unlikely to be met. Weestimate that achieving it would need to be accompanied by a reduction of600 million in the number of people without electricity, to about 1 billion.11
Almost all those people would be in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa(Table 10.8). By 2015, electrification rates will be close to 100% in all otherregions. We estimate that the additional investment needed to bring electricity to
Urban population without electricity Rural population without electricity
0
400
800
mill
ion
1 200
1 600
2002 2030
Figure 10.10: World Population without Electricity in Rural and Urban Settings
11. The energy implications of halving poverty in 2015 are projected using regression analysis,applied to each region. The relationships between poverty, energy consumption and electrificationrates are based on a cross-country analysis covering 100 countries.
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10
In September 2000, the member states of the United Nations adopted whatthey called the “Millennium Declaration”. Following consultations withthe World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the OECD and thespecialised agencies of the United Nations, the General Assembly recognisedeight specific goals as part of the road map for implementing the declaration: 1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger.2. Achieve universal primary education.3. Promote gender equality and empower women.4. Reduce child mortality.5. Improve maternal health.6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases.7. Ensure environmental sustainability.8. Develop a global partnership for development.Yardsticks were established for measuring results and targets for 2015. Theyconcern not just developing countries but also the rich countries that arehelping to fund development programmes and the internationalorganisations that are helping countries implement them.
Box 10.4: The UN Millennium Development Goals
AdditionalPopulation without electricity (million) cumulative
2015 2015 investment,2002 Reference MDG Difference 2003-2015
Scenario Case* ($ billion)
Africa 536 601 453 148 46North Africa 9 3 1 2 1Sub-Saharan Africa 526 598 452 146 45
South Asia 798 773 417 355 104East Asia and China 221 127 100 28 22Latin America 46 27 5 22 28Middle East 14 9 5 3 3
Total 1 615 1 537 981 557 202
Table 10.8: Impact of Meeting MDG Poverty-Reduction Target on the Numberof People without Electricity and Investment in Developing Countries
* Assumes that the Millennium Development Goal of reducing by half the proportion of the population livingon less than $1 per day by 2015 is achieved.
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these 560 million people would be about $200 billion. This is equal to 10% of thetotal cumulative investment in the electricity sector in developing countries thatwe estimate from 2003 to 2015. Three-quarters of this additional finance wouldbe needed in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
In a similar way, the achievement of the Millennium Development Goalswould most likely require a substantial reduction in the use of traditionalbiomass for cooking and heating. The amount of biomass consumption isusually a function of how poor a country is and of the relative availability ofcommercial and non-commercial fuels. In our Reference Scenario, the numberof people relying almost entirely on traditional biomass for cooking andheating will increase slightly from 2.40 billion in 2002 to over 2.55 billion in2015. Our analysis suggests that if the poverty-reduction target is met, thenumber would need to be reduced to under 1.85 billion. To accomplish this,governments would need to take new measures to extend the use of moderncooking and heating fuels to more than 700 million people from 2002to 2015.
Figure 10.11 summarises the implications of meeting the poverty-reductiontarget for electricity access and traditional biomass use. Increased electricityaccess and reduced biomass use would also help achieve other MillenniumDevelopment Goals (UNDP/UNDESA/WDC, 2004).
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
People without electricity People relying on traditional biomass
mill
ion
peop
le
2002 2015 Reference Scenario 2015 MDG target
People to gainaccess toelectricity toreach MDG
People to switch away fromtraditionalbiomass toreach MDG
Figure 10.11: The Energy Implications of Halving Povertyin Developing Countries by 2015
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Policy Implications The analysis and projections described above provide a compelling argumentfor decisive action to accelerate the process of energy development in poorcountries. Sitting back and waiting for people to become richer as the globaleconomy expands will not be enough. Developing countries are unlikely to seetheir incomes and living standards increase without a concomitant increase intheir use of modern energy services. Energy development is, of course, an effectof economic growth and development. But energy is also a cause. Energy-poverty levels vary widely among the developing countries. Yet, even for themost advanced among them in energy terms, there is much to be done. If thevicious circle of energy poverty and human under-development is to be broken,governments must act to improve the availability and affordability of modernenergy services, especially electricity.
Good governance in the energy sector is critical to attracting infrastructureinvestment. Effective competitive markets give consumers choice and drivedown costs. Creating such markets means removing controls on the pricing ofpetroleum products and other tradeable forms of energy. It means establishingcost-based regulation of energy-network services, and those services must be paidfor. Laws and regulations that impede energy trade and investment have to bereformed. And various measures to attract private capital should be considered.From now to 2030, the developing countries as a whole need to secure about$5 trillion in financing for electricity generation, transmission and distribution.Where public funding is limited, private investors will be called upon to providethe lion’s share of this capital. Where companies remain state-owned, they shouldbe compelled to compete on an equal footing with private companies.
Public policies aimed at improving both the quantity and quality of energyservices need to be backed by broader policies to promote investment, growthand productive employment. These include rural infrastructure development,training and education, and support for micro-credit programmes. Moregenerally, efforts are needed to strengthen the overall legal, institutional andregulatory framework, including the protection of land and property rights.Existing laws and regulations need to be enforced more effectively. In manydeveloping countries, there is a long way to go in applying and respecting thebasic principles of good governance.
At the household level, policies need to focus on ways of increasing access to andthe affordability of fuels for cooking and heating and of electricity. Policies shouldalso aim to promote more efficient use of all fuels. In practice, a primary objectiveshould be to expand the distribution of petroleum-based fuels and, whereavailable, natural gas. Governments should promote the use of energy-efficientcook-stoves, water pumps and other appliances. And electricity services should beextended to households not yet connected to the grid. Where it is uneconomical
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to extend the electricity grid to rural areas, the most appropriate solution willoften be small-scale generators. In many cases, the cheapest fuel will be diesel orLPG, though renewable energy technologies such as photovoltaic panels andwind power may, in some cases, offer a more suitable option.
As a rule, subsidies to energy services are ineffective, economically inefficientand contrary to good environmental practice. But subsidies may be justified insome cases in order to combat poverty. They should be resorted to underspecific conditions: be properly targeted and affordable; deliver quantifiablebenefits; be easily administered and not cause large economic distortions; betransparent and limited in duration (IEA, 1999; UNEP, 2004). The way asubsidy is applied is critical to how effective it is and to its cost. Subsidiesshould normally be restricted to energy services provided through fixednetworks: electricity, natural gas or district heat. Subsidies to other forms ofenergy, such as oil products, can never be properly limited to poorhouseholds, because those fuels are freely traded. Policies should target the“poor” very precisely so that the mechanism for subsidising a particular fueldoes not allow richer households to benefit from the subsidy.
The case for subsidising electrification in poor developing countries is widelyaccepted in principle, since the developmental benefits are often judged toexceed the long-run costs involved in providing subsidised electricity. Wherehigh up-front connection charges prevent poor people from gaining access toelectricity, “lifeline rates” – special low rates for small users – can be a cost-effective way of making services affordable to poor households. Alternatively,governments can finance part of the connection charge or oblige utilities tospread the cost out over time. The challenge is to ensure that electricitysubsidies increase access for the poor at the lowest cost, while ensuring thatelectricity utilities are still able to make money and to continue to invest. Thatmeans limiting the size of subsidies and the number of recipients, andcompensating the utility for any loss of revenue. This can be done eitherthrough higher charges for other customer categories or direct financialtransfers from the government budget.
By improving efficiency and encouraging investment, electricity-sectorreforms can speed up the pace of electrification, while improving the qualityand lowering the cost of supply. Many developing countries have launchedsuch reforms, but few have implemented them fully. Cost-reflective pricing andeffective billing systems are vital to the financial health of electricity companiesand to their ability to sustain investment. In countries such as India, theft andunmetered connections deprive the state-owned power companies of moneythat could be used to upgrade and extend the grid. But it can be very difficult,politically and socially, to raise prices and enforce the payment of bills. Manydeveloping countries have tried to open up their electricity sectors to private
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capital from domestic and foreign sources. But such investment has slumpedsince 1997, because of poor returns and uncertainty about possible regulatorydevelopments (IEA, 2003). Official development assistance has also fallen sincethe mid-1990s (UNDP/UNDESA/WEC, 2004).Clearly, policy reforms and development priorities must be tailored to eachcountry’s situation. In the poorest African and Asian countries at the bottomof the EDI rankings, relying predominantly on private capital to developenergy infrastructure from scratch is unlikely to succeed, because of the risksinvolved. One way forward for these countries may be to establish public-private partnerships between host-country governments, donors, multi-lateraldevelopment banks, non-governmental organisations and private companies.The rich industrialised countries have obvious long-term economic, politicaland energy-security interests in helping developing countries along the path toenergy development. For, so long as poverty, hunger and disease persist, thepoorest regions will remain vulnerable to social and political instability and tohumanitarian disasters. The cost of providing assistance to poor countries mayturn out to be far less than that of dealing with the instability and insecuritythat poverty breeds.
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APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 10:ELECTRIFICATION TABLES
ContentsTable 10.A1 – Urban, Rural and Total Electrification Rates by Region, 2002
Tables 10.A2 – Electricity Access in 2002 (country-by-country database)
� Africa
� Developing Asia
� Latin America
� Middle East
Table 10.A3 – Electrification Rate Projections by Region
Table 10.A4 – Projections of Urban and Rural Electrification Rates by Region
Definitions and ApproachElectricity Access
There is no single internationally-accepted definition for electricity access. Thedefinition used here covers electricity access at the household level, that is, thenumber of people who have electricity in their home. It comprises electricitysold commercially, both on-grid and off-grid. It also includes self-generatedelectricity for those countries where access to electricity has been assessedthrough surveys by government or government agencies. The data do notcapture unauthorised connections. The main data sources are listed in thetables. Each data point has been validated through a consistency-check processamong different data sources and experts. The electrification rates shown inthis appendix indicate the number of people with electricity access as apercentage of total population. Rural and urban electrification rates have beencollected for most countries. Only the regional averages are shown in thispublication. More information on the IEA’s work on energy and developmentis available at http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/poverty.
Where country data appeared contradictory, outdated or unreliable, the IEASecretariat made estimates based on cross-country comparisons, earlier surveys,information from other international organisations, annual statistical bulletins,publications and journals. Population and Urban/Rural Breakdown Projectionsare from World Population Prospects – The 2002 Revision, published by theUnited Nations Population Division.
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For the projections of electrification rates to 2030, a detailed model was usedfor sub-Saharan Africa, India and other South Asia. The electrification moduleis part of the IEA’s World Energy Model.The projections for African and South Asian regions are quantified usingregional regressions based on several determinants: income, population growth,fuel prices, urbanisation rates, poverty levels, present and past electrificationrates and electricity and biomass consumption figures. For the other regionswhere electrification exceeds 85% in 2002, a linear model was used based ongross domestic product and population growth, as well as on past electrificationgrowth rates. The projections of electricity and biomass consumption are basedon the World Energy Model described in Annex C.
Biomass UseData on biomass consumption are from IEA statistics, Energy Balances ofNon-OECD Countries, 2004 edition. UN-FAO data are used for informationon forest coverage and estimates of biomass supply. Biomass and traditionalbiomass are defined in Annex E. Projections for both biomass and traditionalbiomass energy demand by region/country are modelled in the World EnergyModel and presented in Annex A.
AbbreviationsADIAC - Agence d'Information d'Afrique CentraleAFREPREN - African Energy Policy Research NetworkAPERC - Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre AREED - African Rural Energy Enterprise DevelopmentDOE - U.S. Department of Energy DHS - Demographic and Health SurveysEEPCo - Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation ESMAP - Energy Sector Management Assistance ProgrammeGNESD - Global Network on Energy for Sustainable DevelopmentMEMR - Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, IndonesiaOECD - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentOLADE - Latin American Energy AssociationUNDP - United Nations Development ProgrammeUSAID - The United States Agency for International Development
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Chapter 10 - Energy and Development 359
10
Tabl
e 10.
A1:U
rban
, Rur
al a
nd T
otal
Ele
ctri
ficat
ion
Rat
es b
y R
egio
n, 2
002
Popu
latio
n U
rban
Po
pula
tion
Popu
latio
nEl
ectr
ifica
tion
Urb
anRu
ral
popu
latio
nw
ithou
tw
ithra
teel
ectr
ifica
tion
elec
trifi
catio
nel
ectr
icity
elec
tric
ityra
tera
tem
illio
nm
illio
nm
illio
nm
illio
n%
%%
Nor
th A
frica
143
749
134
93.6
98.8
87.9
Sub-
Saha
ran
Afric
a68
824
252
616
223
.651
.58.
4
Afric
a83
131
653
529
535
.562
.419
.0
Chi
na an
d Ea
st As
ia1
860
725
221
1 63
988
.196
.083
.1So
uth
Asia
1 39
639
079
859
842
.869
.432
.5
Dev
elop
ing
Asia
3 25
51
115
1 01
92
236
68.7
86.7
59.3
Latin
Am
erica
428
327
4638
289
.297
.761
.4M
iddl
e Eas
t17
311
414
158
91.8
99.1
77.6
Dev
elop
ing
coun
trie
s4
687
1 87
21
615
3 07
265
.585
.352
.4
Tran
sitio
n ec
onom
ies a
nd O
ECD
1 49
21
085
71
484
99.5
100.
098
.2
Wor
ld6
179
2 95
61
623
4 55
673
.790
.758
.2
329-Chap10 8/10/04 10:32 Page 359
360 World Energy Outlook 2004
Tabl
e 10.
A2:E
lect
rici
ty A
cces
s in
2002
- Af
rica
Ele
ctri
fica
tion
Popu
lati
onPo
pula
tion
rate
wit
hout
wit
hSo
urce
sel
ectr
icit
yel
ectr
icit
y%
mill
ion
mill
ion
Ang
ola
5.0
12.5
0.7
DO
E C
ount
ry A
naly
sis
Bri
ef, A
FRE
PRE
N (2
001)
Ben
in24
.84.
91.
6E
SMA
P, D
HS
(200
1)B
otsw
ana
26.4
1.3
0.5
DO
E C
ount
ry B
rief
on
Sout
hern
Afr
ica
(200
4), A
FRE
PRE
N (2
000)
Bur
kina
Fas
o10
.011
.41.
3O
EC
D (2
003)
, ESM
AP
(199
8/99
)C
amer
oon
40.7
9.3
6.4
DH
S (1
998)
Con
go19
.62.
90.
7A
DIA
C
Côt
e d'
Ivoi
re50
.78.
18.
3D
HS
(199
8/99
)D
R C
ongo
8.3
46.9
4.3
GN
ESD
(200
4)E
ritr
ea18
.43.
30.
7A
FRE
PRE
N (2
001)
Eth
iopi
a2.
667
.21.
8A
FRE
PRE
N (2
001)
, EE
PCo,
DH
S (2
000)
Gab
on47
.90.
70.
6E
SMA
P (2
000)
Gha
na48
.510
.59.
9A
RE
ED
, ESM
AP
(199
8), D
HS
(199
8)K
enya
9.1
28.7
2,9
AFR
EPR
EN
(200
1), E
SMA
P (1
998)
, DH
S (1
998)
Leso
tho
5.0
1.7
0.1
GN
ESD
(200
4)M
adag
asca
r8.
315
.51.
4G
NE
SD (2
004)
Mal
awi
5.8
11.2
0.7
AFR
EPR
EN
(200
1), D
HS
(200
0)M
auri
tius
100
0.0
1.2
AFR
EPR
EN
(200
1)M
ozam
biqu
e8.
716
.91.
6A
FRE
PRE
N (2
000)
Nam
ibia
34.7
1.3
0.7
AFR
EPR
EN
(200
0), D
HS
(200
0)N
iger
ia44
.966
.654
.3E
SMA
P (1
999)
329-Chap10 8/10/04 10:32 Page 360
Chapter 10 - Energy and Development 361
10
Sene
gal
31.4
6.8
3.1
GN
ESD
(200
4), A
RE
ED
, DH
S (1
999)
Sout
h A
fric
a67
.114
.730
.0A
FRE
PRE
N (2
001)
, ESM
AP
(199
8)Su
dan
31.0
22.7
10.2
AFR
EPR
EN
(200
0)Ta
nzan
ia9.
233
.03.
3A
FRE
PRE
N (2
001)
, AR
EE
D, D
HS
(199
9), H
elio
Int
erna
tion
al (2
002)
Togo
17.0
4.0
0.8
ESM
AP
(199
8)U
gand
a4.
024
.01.
0A
FRE
PRE
N (2
001)
, Uga
ndan
Gov
ernm
ent,
ESM
AP
(200
0/01
)Z
ambi
a18
.48.
72.
0A
FRE
PRE
N (2
001)
, DH
S (2
001/
02)
Zim
babw
e40
.97.
65.
3A
FRE
PRE
N (2
001)
, DH
S (1
999)
Oth
er A
fric
a7.
083
.96.
3Se
cret
aria
t est
imat
e
Sub-
Saha
ran
Afr
ica
23.5
526.
316
1.6
Alg
eria
98.5
0.5
30.8
Min
istr
y of
Ene
rgy
and
Min
ing
Egy
pt97
.71.
664
.8U
SAID
, DH
S (2
000)
Liby
a99
.80.
05.
4Se
cret
aria
t est
imat
eM
oroc
co77
.46.
823
.3M
inis
try
of E
nerg
y an
d M
ines
, Off
ice
Nat
iona
l de
l'Ele
ctri
cité
Tuni
sia
95.0
0.5
9.2
ESI
Afr
ica,
Ins
titu
t Nat
iona
l de
la S
tati
stiq
ue
Nor
th A
fric
a93
.69.
313
3.6
Afr
ica
36.0
535.
629
5.2
329-Chap10 8/10/04 10:32 Page 361
362 World Energy Outlook 2004
Tabl
e 10.
A2:E
lect
rici
ty A
cces
s in
2002
- D
evel
opin
g A
sia
Ele
ctri
fica
tion
Popu
lati
onPo
pula
tion
rate
wit
hout
wit
hSo
urce
sel
ectr
icit
yel
ectr
icit
y%
mill
ion
mill
ion
Chi
na99
.012
.91
275.
3Se
cret
aria
t est
imat
eB
rune
i99
.20.
00.
3A
PER
CC
ambo
dia
18.3
11.3
2.5
GN
ESD
(199
8), D
HS
(200
0)C
hine
se T
aipe
i98
.80.
322
.2Se
cret
aria
t est
imat
eD
PR K
orea
20.0
18.0
4.5
Secr
etar
iat e
stim
ate
Indo
nesi
a52
.510
0.5
111.
2PL
N S
tati
stik
s 20
02 (2
003)
, ME
MR
(200
2), G
NE
SD (2
004)
, DH
S (2
002/
03)
Mal
aysi
a97
.10.
723
.3G
NE
SD (2
000)
Mon
golia
90.0
0.3
2.3
Hel
io I
nter
nati
onal
(200
0)M
yanm
ar5.
046
.42.
4G
NE
SD (2
000)
Phili
ppin
es89
.18.
769
.8G
NE
SD (2
004)
, DH
S (1
998)
Sing
apor
e10
0.0
0.0
4.2
GN
ESD
(200
0)T
haila
nd91
.15.
556
.6G
NE
SD (2
004)
Vie
tnam
79.6
16.3
63.9
GN
ESD
(200
1), D
HS
(200
2)O
ther
Asi
a80
.00.
00.
2Se
cret
aria
t est
imat
e
Chi
na a
nd E
ast
Asi
a 88
.122
1.0
1 63
8.8
Afg
hani
stan
2.0
22.5
0.5
Wor
ld B
ank,
DO
E C
ount
ry A
naly
sis
Bri
ef, U
ND
PB
angl
ades
h26
.310
0.5
35.8
GN
ESD
(200
0), B
angl
ades
h Po
wer
Dev
elop
men
t Boa
rd, U
SAID
, DH
S(19
99/0
0)In
dia
44.4
582.
646
5.9
GN
ESD
(200
0), D
HS
(199
8/99
), I
ndia
n C
ensu
s (2
001)
Nep
al25
.917
.96.
2G
NE
SD (2
000)
, ESM
AP,
DH
S (2
001)
Paki
stan
53.0
68.1
76.7
GN
ESD
(200
0)Sr
i Lan
ka65
.56.
512
.4G
NE
SD (2
001)
Sout
h A
sia
42.8
798.
059
7.6
Dev
elop
ing
Asi
a68
.71
019.
02
236.
4
329-Chap10 8/10/04 10:32 Page 362
Chapter 10 - Energy and Development 363
10
Tabl
e 10.
A2:E
lect
rici
ty A
cces
s in
2002
- La
tin A
mer
ica
Ele
ctri
fica
tion
Popu
lati
onPo
pula
tion
rate
wit
hout
wit
hSo
urce
sel
ectr
icit
yel
ectr
icit
y%
mill
ion
mill
ion
Arg
enti
na95
.01.
936
.1G
NE
SD (2
004)
, OL
AD
E (1
998)
Bol
ivia
65.1
3.0
5.6
DH
S (1
998)
, OL
AD
E (2
002)
Bra
zil
94.6
9.5
165.
1O
LA
DE
(199
9)C
hile
97.0
0.5
15.1
APE
RC
(200
1)C
olom
bia
90.2
4.3
39.3
DH
S (2
000)
Cos
ta R
ica
97.0
0.1
4.0
OL
AD
E (2
002)
Cub
a95
.80.
510
.8O
LA
DE
(200
2)D
omin
ican
Rep
ublic
92.3
0.7
8.0
DH
S (2
002)
, OL
AD
E (2
002)
Ecu
ador
89.7
1.3
11.5
OL
AD
E (2
002)
El S
alva
dor
76.9
1.5
4.9
GN
ESD
(200
4), O
LA
DE
(200
1)G
uate
mal
a84
.41.
910
.2E
SMA
P (1
998/
99),
DH
S (1
998/
99),
OL
AD
E (2
002)
Hai
ti33
.55.
52.
8D
HS
(200
0), O
LA
DE
(199
7)H
ondu
ras
60.1
2.7
4.1
OL
AD
E (2
002)
Jam
aica
87.0
0.3
2.3
OL
AD
E (2
002)
Net
herl
ands
Ant
illes
99.5
0.0
0.2
Secr
etar
iat e
stim
ate
Nic
arag
ua46
.62.
82.
5O
LA
DE
(200
2), D
HS
(200
1), G
loba
l Env
iron
men
t Fac
ility
(200
1)Pa
nam
a85
.10.
52.
6O
LA
DE
(200
0)Pa
ragu
ay85
.30.
84.
9O
LA
DE
(200
2)Pe
ru75
.76.
520
.3O
LA
DE
(200
2), G
NE
SD (2
004)
, DH
S (2
000)
, APE
RC
(200
0)Tr
inid
ad a
nd T
obag
o99
.00.
01.
3O
LA
DE
(199
7)U
rugu
ay99
.00.
03.
4O
LA
DE
(199
7)V
enez
uela
94.0
1.5
23.7
OL
AD
E (2
002)
Oth
er L
atin
Am
eric
a87
.00.
53.
3Se
cret
aria
t est
imat
e
Lat
in A
mer
ica
89.2
46.3
381.
7
329-Chap10 8/10/04 10:32 Page 363
364 World Energy Outlook 2004
Tabl
e 10.
A2:E
lect
rici
ty A
cces
s in
2002
- M
iddl
e Ea
st
Ele
ctri
fica
tion
Popu
lati
onPo
pula
tion
rate
wit
hout
wit
hSo
urce
sel
ectr
icit
yel
ectr
icit
y%
mill
ion
mill
ion
Bah
rain
99.9
0.0
0.7
Secr
etar
iat e
stim
ate
Iran
99.2
0.5
64.8
Tava
nir,
Wor
ld E
nerg
y C
ounc
il Ir
aq95
.41.
123
.3Se
cret
aria
t est
imat
e ba
sed
on W
orld
Ban
kIs
rael
100.
00.
06.
5Is
rael
Ele
ctri
c C
orpo
rati
on (2
003)
Jord
an95
.50.
24.
9Se
cret
aria
t est
imat
e ba
sed
on W
orld
Ban
kK
uwai
t10
0.0
0.0
2.1
Secr
etar
iat e
stim
ate
Leba
non
96.0
0.2
4.3
Secr
etar
iat e
stim
ate
base
d on
Wor
ld B
ank
Om
an94
.60.
12.
4Se
cret
aria
t est
imat
eQ
atar
95.6
0.0
0.6
Secr
etar
iat e
stim
ate
Saud
i Ara
bia
98.4
0.4
21.7
Secr
etar
iat e
stim
ate
Syri
a86
.62.
314
.7Se
cret
aria
t est
imat
e ba
sed
on U
ND
PU
nite
d A
rab
Em
irat
es97
.40.
13.
0Se
cret
aria
t est
imat
eYe
men
50.3
9.3
9.4
Secr
etar
iat e
stim
ate
base
d on
Wor
ld B
ank
Mid
dle
Eas
t91
.814
.215
8.4
329-Chap10 8/10/04 10:32 Page 364
Chapter 10 - Energy and Development 365
10
Tabl
e 10.
A3:E
lect
rific
atio
n R
ate
Proj
ectio
ns b
y R
egio
n (%
)
2002
2010
2015
2020
2030
Nor
th A
fric
a94
9898
9899
Sub-
Saha
ran
Afr
ica
2429
3439
51
Afr
ica
3641
4449
58
Chi
na a
nd E
ast A
sia
8893
9495
96So
uth
Asi
a43
5055
5966
Lati
n A
mer
ica
8993
9595
96M
iddl
e E
ast
9295
9697
99
Dev
elop
ing
coun
trie
s66
7072
7478
Wor
ld74
7778
8083
Tabl
e 10.
A4:P
roje
ctio
ns o
f Urb
an a
nd R
ural
Ele
ctri
ficat
ion
Rat
es b
y R
egio
n (%
)
2002
2010
2015
2020
2030
Urb
anR
ural
Urb
anR
ural
Urb
anR
ural
Urb
anR
ural
Urb
anR
ural
Nor
th A
fric
a99
8810
096
100
9610
096
100
97Su
b-Sa
hara
n A
fric
a52
855
1258
1662
2170
30
Afr
ica
6219
6523
6726
6930
7538
Chi
na a
nd E
ast A
sia
9683
9888
100
8810
088
100
89So
uth
Asi
a69
3373
4077
4481
4688
50La
tin
Am
eric
a98
6110
068
100
7110
073
100
76M
iddl
e E
ast
9978
100
8510
087
100
9010
095
Dev
elop
ing
coun
trie
s85
5288
5789
5890
5992
61
Wor
ld91
5892
6193
6293
6394
65
Tota
l num
ber
of p
eopl
e w
ithou
t ele
ctri
city
(m
illio
n)
275
1 34
728
91
267
290
1 24
929
51
210
287
1 10
6
For
refe
renc
e:
329-Chap10 8/10/04 10:32 Page 365
329-Chap10 8/10/04 10:32 Page 366