Challenges of Linking Forecasts to the Field: A Practitioner’s Experience Building Regional Climate Outlook Forums in Africa

Macol Stewart CerdaPresident, Silmaril, LLC Former Director of Climate Forecasting and Applications for Africa, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Global Programs

Research Seminar on Knowledge for DevelopmentKennedy School of Government, Harvard University9 October 2003

Presentation Overview• What is a Regional Climate Outlook

Forum?• Genesis and evolution of Regional Climate

Outlook Forums• Analysis of how Outlook Forums addressed

common knowledge systems challenges• Other major challenges for Outlook Forums

So what is a Regional Climate Outlook Forum?

• Main regional mechanism for the formulation and dissemination of seasonal climate forecasts

• Bring together climate scientists, operational forecasters, and climate information users to• Formulate a consensus forecast• Discuss the implications of probable climate

outcomes for climate-sensitive sectors

Climate Outlook Forums worldwide 1997-2000

Outlook Forum regions roughly correspond to regions needing early warning capabilities

Birth of the Climate Outlook Forum Concept

Workshop on Reducing Climate-Related Vulnerability in Southern Africa, October 1996, Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe

Priority areas for developing forecasting and applications:• a series of pilot demonstration projects designed to

establish a framework for responding to climate forecast information in the areas of agriculture, food security, water resources, public health, and forestry;

• a Regional Climate Outlook Forum charged with arriving at an assessment (ideally a consensus) of the state of the climate for the upcoming season;

• improvements in communications and connectivity, particularly with regards to e-mail and the internet; and

• training programs, educational opportunities, and fellowship possibilities that cross political and sectoral boundaries.

First Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF)

• Pre-season Outlook Forum, September 1997, Kadoma, Zimbabwe

• Mid-season Correction Meeting, December 1997, Windhoek, Namibia

• Post-season Assessment Meeting, April 1998, Pilanesburg, South Africa

• Each proceeded by a training workshop for forecast production and validation

Controversies and deal breakers

• Scientific conflict• Political conflict• Disagreement over who should

participate• Disagreement over when and how

to disseminate consensus outlook

Keys to success for first SARCOF

• Maintaining scientific integrity• Artfully balancing political concerns• While meeting user demands for

• standardized, timely, verifiable forecast information

• a regular venue for a user/producer dialog• mutual commitment to a process for

improving forecast production and use

Useful knowledge for decision support

• Knowledge that is used is perceived by decision makers to be simultaneously salient, credible, legitimate… not just one of these• Saliency (Is it relevant to decision making, to

changing needs of specific users, producers?)• Credibility (Is it technically believable, endorsed by

relevant evaluative communities?) • Legitimacy (Is it perceived to be politically fair,

respectful, evenhanded by stakeholders?) -- Bill Clark

Spread to other regions• Initial intention to focus only on

Southern Africa for 3-5 years• 1997/98: El Nino as a household word• Needs of users and Meteorological

Services drive the formation of climate outlook forums in other regions

• Rapid expansion around the world

How have the Climate Outlook Forums addressed the common challenges faced by knowledge systems?

• Empowering end-users in setting priorities for research and development

• Creating location specific knowledge needed for decision support

• Integrating basic and applied approaches to produce user-inspired basic research

• Incorporating both tacit knowledge of practice and global knowledge / technology into local solutions

• Integrating public and private needs and capabilities• Fostering boundary spanning organizations to

connect knowledge and action

Empowering end-users in setting R&D priorities

• Applications research and decision support development

• Climate forecasting research and development

• Basic climate research and development

Location specific knowledge for decision support

• Downscaling forecasts• Combining forecast information with

location specific climate monitoring information

• Combining forecast information with location specific information from climate-sensitive sectors

• Combining forecast information with local knowledge

tacit knowledge, global knowledge, and technology

• Reconciling climate forecasts and local climate knowledge/indicators

• Linking forecasts with the on the ground knowledge of how to respond to the forecast

Public and private needs and capabilities

• Easing the tension between the public provision and use of knowledge and its private provision and use• Information is more easily accessible,

and often more usable, for wealthy and powerful interests

• Resolving disputes over proprietary information, who owns it, who pays for it, and who can use it

Boundary spanning organizations

• Tendency to rely more on individual intermediaries and communities of intermediaries

• Less success in moving established user organizations into boundary roles

• Forecasting organizations interested in boundary organization role

Other challenges

• Sustainability• Knowledge dissemination physical

infrastructure

Sustainability

• Internal momentum to perpetuate the system

• Stability of the Forum mechanism• Funding for the system

Physical infrastructure for knowledge dissemination• By what mechanisms or pathways is

information delivered to end-users? • National TV, press, and radio• Word of mouth, or person-to-person via

intermediaries• By what mechanisms or pathways is feed-

back solicited from end-users and delivered to forecasters?• Word of mouth, intermediaries,

studies/projects, e-mail and mail reporting• Over reliance on informal mechanisms

In conclusion• Development of COF knowledge system

faced common challenges• Politics: biggest challenge to inception

• Knowledge is power• Sustainability: biggest challenge to

future• How to maintain system when there is no

immediate crisis?• The future?

Thank you!