Challeges to Hisp Dropout Prevention/ Stan Seidner & Maria Seidner

8/8/2019 Challeges to Hisp Dropout Prevention/ Stan Seidner & Maria Seidner

1/25


2/25

Overview

Populations

Hispanic Dropouts

Hispanic Dropouts Numbers Controversies

Challenges to School Holding Power and Dropout Prevention

Discussion


3/25

Table 1: Comparative Growth of the Hispanic Population in the U.S.1990 to 2000

Region 1990 1990 Hispanic Population 2000 2000 Hispanic Population %

Totals Number % Totals Number %

Northeast 50,809,229 3,754,389 7.4 53,594,378 5,254,087 9.8 2.4

Midwest 59,668,632 1,726, 509 2.9 64,392,776 3,124,532 4.9 2.0

South 85445,930 6,767,021 7.9 100,236,820 11,586, 11.6 3.7

West 52,786,082 10,106,140 19.9 63,197,932 15, 340,503 24.3 4.4

Total U.S. 248,709,873 22,354,059 9.0 281,421,906 35,305, 818 12.5 3.5


4/25

Proportion of Population by Race/Ethnicity

in Texas in 1980, 1990 and 2000(Source: Texas State Data Center)

65.72

60.59

53.11

11.89 11.63 11.61

20.98

25.55

31.99

1.41 2.233.29

1980 1990 2000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Anglo Black Hispanic Other


5/25

Percent of Texas Population By Age Group

and Ethnicity, 2000


6/25

Group 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Number* % Number* % Number* % Number* % Number*

Hispanics 38,189 13.3 43,688 14.6 49,255 15.8 55,156 17.0 61,443

Black 35,446 12.3 37,483 12.5 39,551 12.7 41,548 12.8 43,527

White** 199,414 69.3 201,956 67.4 204,590 65.4 207,145 63.7 209,339

Asian/ Pac. Is. 12,497 4.3 14,436 4.7 16,444 5.3 18,527 5.7 20,846

Nat. Amer. 2,171 0.8 2,300 0.8 2,428 0.8 2,549 0.8 2,668

Totals 287,717 100 299,863 100 312,268 100 324,925 100 337,823

*In thousands (1000) **White non-Hispanic

Table 2: Projected Comparative Growth over Five-Year Periods2005 to 2025


7/25

Table 3: Projected Comparative Growth over Ten-Year Periods2030 to 2070

Group 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Number* % Number* % Number* % Number* % Number*

Hispanics 68,167 19.4 82,691 21.9 98,228 24.3 114,796 26.5 132,492

Black 45,567 13.0 49,617 13.2 53,466 13.3 57,297 13.3 61,286

White** 210,983 60.1 212,474 56.3 212,990 52.7 214,190 49.6 217,028

Asian/ Pac. Is. 23,563 6.7 29,542 7.8 35,759 8.9 42,277 9.8 49,179

Nat. Amer. 2,787 0.8 3,023 0.8 3,241 0.8 3,448 0.8 3,652

TOTAL: 351,067 100 377,347 100 403,684 100 432,008 100 463,637

*In thousands (1000) **White non-Hispanic


8/25

Table 4: Projected Comparative Growth in Texas2005 to 2025

Group 2005 2015 2025

Number* % %** Number* % %*** Number* %

White** 11,292 52.55 -8.04 11,668 48.05 -4.50 11,859 43.62

Black 2,797 13.02 1.39 3,325 13.69 0.67 3,871 14.24

Hispanics 6,624 30.83 5.28 8,294 34.17 3.34 10,230 37.64

Other***** 774 3.60 1.37 994 4.09 0.49 1,224 4.50

Total 21,487 100.00 24,281 100.00 27,184 100.00

*In thousands (1000) **White non-Hispanic **2000-2005 growth rate. ***2005-2015 growth rate. ****2015-2025 growth rate.

*****Includes Asian, Pacific Islands, Native Americans, and others


9/25

Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total

2000 2,552,553 768,367 2,386,765 179,074 5,886,759

Assuming Zero Migration

2010 2,381,989 711,286 2,718,253 191,251 6,002,7792020 2,250,596 656,616 2,894,620 171,836 5,973,6682030 2,037,621 599,805 3,023,563 149,589 5,810,5782040 1,845,920 533,120 3,123,007 145,659 5,647,706

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to

One-Half of 1990-2000

2010 2,410,363 745,637 2,962,436 222,271 6,340,7072020 2,315,423 724,359 3,567,655 244,147 6,851,5842030 2,129,593 697,760 4,160,892 261,862 7,250,1072040 1,955,759 651,536 4,776,747 302,677 7,686,719

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000

2010 2,439,166 781,589 3,231,809 258,642 6,711,2062020 2,382,124 798,752 4,396,662 344,556 7,922,0942030 2,225,880 811,337 5,740,541 455,889 9,233,6472040 2,072,294 795,593 7,313,460 625,864 10,807,211

Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total

2000 2,552,553 768,367 2,386,765 179,074 5,886,759

Assuming Zero Migration

2010 2,381,989 711,286 2,718,253 191,251 6,002,7792020 2,250,596 656,616 2,894,620 171,836 5,973,6682030 2,037,621 599,805 3,023,563 149,589 5,810,5782040 1,845,920 533,120 3,123,007 145,659 5,647,706

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to

One-Half of 1990-2000

2010 2,410,363 745,637 2,962,436 222,271 6,340,7072020 2,315,423 724,359 3,567,655 244,147 6,851,5842030 2,129,593 697,760 4,160,892 261,862 7,250,1072040 1,955,759 651,536 4,776,747 302,677 7,686,719

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000

2010 2,439,166 781,589 3,231,809 258,642 6,711,2062020 2,382,124 798,752 4,396,662 344,556 7,922,0942030 2,225,880 811,337 5,740,541 455,889 9,233,6472040 2,072,294 795,593 7,313,460 625,864 10,807,211

Population in Texas


10/25


11/25

Ethnic Diversity of the Population, Householders, and Labor Force in 1990 and 2030*

60.7%11.7%

25.5%

2.1%

36.7%

9.5%

45.9%

7.9%

42.3%

9.7%

39.7%

8.3%

Anglo B lack H ispanic Other

67.9%

11.1%

19.1%1.9%

610.8%

22.3%2.3%

3

9.1%

45.6%

7.8%

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario (Source: Texas State Data Center)

1990 Population 1990 Householders1990 Labor Force

2030 Population 2030 Householders 2030 Labor Force


12/25

Total Students 4,146,653% African American 14

% Hispanic 42

% White 41

% Other 3

STUDENTS: TEXAS PUBLIC SCHOOLS 2002

Source: TEA, 2003


13/25

% Economically Disadvantaged 50.5

% Special Education 12

% Bilingual/ESL Education 13

% Career & Technology Ed. 19

% Gifted & Talented Ed. 8

STUDENTS: TEXAS PUBLIC SCHOOLS 2002Source: TEA, 2003


14/25

Hispanic Dropouts

1991-2001, between 347,000 and 544,000 10th- 12th-grade stud

dropped out each year without successfully completing high sc

October 2000, about 11 percent of 16- 24-year-olds not enrolled

high school program lacked high school diploma or equivalent

credential

(U.S. GAO, 2002).


15/25

Hispanic Dropouts Numbers Controversie

TEA vs. NCES Numbers through 2002

Grades

7-12

TEA NCES Difference

7th grade

8th grade9th grade

10th grade

11th grade

12th grade

703

1,3157,630

4,631

4,518

4,660

1,231

3,19515,204

13,511

11,216

14,459

-528

-1,880-7,574

-8,880

-6,698

-9,799

Total 23,457 58,816 -35,359


16/25


Grades

9-12

TEA NCES Differen

9th grade10th grade

11th grade

12th grade

7,6304,631

4,518

4,660

15,20413,511

11,216

14,459

-7,574-8,880

-6,698

-9,799

Total 21,439 54,390 -32,951

TEA vs. NCES Numbers through 2002


17/25

Hispanic Dropouts Numbers Controversies

Longitudinal Attrition Rates in Texas Public High Schools, 1985-86 to 2001-0

Group

Race-Ethnicity Percent

Change*

from 1985-86

to 2001-02

Native American 36

Asian/Pacific Islander -58

Black 35

White -4

Hispanic 13

Gender

Male 23

Female 9

Total 18Source: Intercultural Development Research Association, 2002.


18/25


FY 2000, national status dropout rate 10.9% of 16- through 24-yolds

FY 2000, the national Hispanic dropout rate of 16- through 24-y

olds 27.8 % compared to 6.9 % White students and 13.1% Bl

students

(Source: US GAO, 2002).


19/25


Texas: During the past 16 years, annual attrition rate in Texasincreased by 21 percent.

Upward trend in attrition rates from 33 percent in 1985-86 to 40percent in 1999-00 and 2000-01

Texas: Hispanic students and Black students considerably higherattrition rates than White students. In 2000-01, Hispanic studenattrition rate of 52 percent compared to 46 percent for Black stand 27 percent for White students.

Intercultural Development Research Association, 2001


20/25


Texas: Two of every five high school students lost from high s

enrollment prior to graduation.

Forty percent or two of every five students enrolled in the ninth

grade in Texas public schools during the 1997-98 school year

to reach the 12th grade in 2000-01. An estimated 144,241 students, or about 40 percent of the 199

freshman class, were lost from public school enrollment by 20

--Johnson, 2001


21/25


22/25

Challenges to School Holding Power and

Dropout Prevention

Federal and State Legislative Requirements

Impact of Reduced Funding

Shifting data standards and requirements

Reductions in School Resources


23/25

Challenges to School Holding Power and

Dropout Prevention

Weakened Accountability Monitoring

Dwindling trained and experienced human workforce

i.Diminished front-line Resources and Field Support

ii.Weakened and Reduced Centralized Accountability Oversi(ie., TEA).

Increased Politicizing of Education and Educational Decision

Other


24/25

SOME SOURCES

Intercultural Development Research Association. Stemming the Tide of ArizonDropouts: An Action Agenda for Arizona (Phoenix, Arizona: Arizona MinorityEducation Policy Analysis Center of the Arizona Commission on PostsecondaEducation, 2002).

Johnson, Roy L. "Missing: Texas Youth - Cost of School Dropouts Escalates,"Newsletter(San Antonio, Texas: Intercultural Development Research AssociatOctober 2001).

National Center for Education Statistics. Dropout Rates in the United States: 1(Washington, D.C.: US Department of Education, Office of Educational ReseaImprovement, November 1999).

National Dropout Prevention Network. "Dropout Statistics," Internet posting(Washington, D.C.: National Dropout Prevention Network, 2000).

US General Accounting Office. School Dropouts: Education Could Play a Stroin Identifying and Disseminating Promising Prevention Strategies (WashingtoUS General Accounting Office, 2002).


25/25

For Additional Information

Please contact MS Associates

at

[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

Documents

Challeges to Hisp Dropout Prevention/ Stan Seidner & Maria Seidner