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8/3/2019 CBSNYTPoll Iowa Main 120611
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CBS News/New York Times PollFor release: Tuesday December 6, 2011
6:30 PM EST
The Iowa Caucuses: Four Weeks to GoNovember 30- December 5, 2011
Though Iowas Republican caucuses have often hinged on socially conservative issues,this year in Iowa - as in the nation - its the economy that dominates. Caucus-goers tellthe CBS News/New York Times poll theyre seeking someone who can turn it aroundand has new ideas to do so.
Iowas caucus goers are not backing the candidates they most think share their values theyre backing the one they think is most prepared for the presidency, and right nowthats overwhelmingly Newt Gingrich. Buoyed by that sentiment, he enjoys a sizable leadover Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, who are virtually tied for second place in this poll.
Gingrich leads among caucus goers with 31%, followed by Romney (17%) and Paul(16%). Tea Party supporters and evangelical voters back the former House Speaker.Romney leads among moderates.
Ron Pauls strong suits are tax reform, promoting conservative principles, and sharingvoters values. Romney is seen as able to do a good job dealing with the economy.
The Race for the Nomination
The poll finds Newt Gingrich with a double-digit lead over Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. HermanCains departure is not a large factor he had already declined in Iowa before he withdrew fromthe race Saturday but Gingrich benefits from his withdrawal. Paul benefits somewhat; Romneydoes not. Although one-third of caucus goers say they did back Herman Cain at one time in thepast, the preference vote measured with Cain in the mix had him at just 7%. Most of theinterviewing for this poll was conducted before Cain left the race; caucus-goers were asked theircandidate preference in questions including and excluding Herman Cain.
Iowa Caucus-goers: Choice for Nominee(Among Republican Caucus-Goers)
Without Cain With CainNewt Gingrich 31% 28%Mitt Romney 17 18Ron Paul 16 14Rick Perry 11 10Michele Bachmann 9 4Rick Santorum 4 4Jon Huntsman 1 1Herman Cain n/a 7
There is still room for movement in the race; 34% say their minds are made up, but 66% saythey could still change their minds.
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Candidate Qualities
Newt Gingrich leads the rest of the Republican candidates on many key attributes especiallythose that reflect leadership and presidential readiness. He is seen as most prepared for the jobof president, best able to handle an international crisis and most qualified to be commander-in-chief.
Gingrich and Romney are viewed as the most electable candidates: 31% say Gingrich has thebest chance of defeating President Obama, while almost as many, 29%, think Romney has thebest chance.
Which Candidate Is?(Among Republican Caucus-Goers)
Most Prepared Best Handle Most Qualified to be Best Chance toto be President Intl crisis Commander-in-Chief Beat Obama
Gingrich 43% 44% 40% 31%Romney 20 16 19 29Paul 11 10 11 6Perry 8 7 8 9
Gingrich also does well on the two issues most important to Iowa caucus goers the economyand the federal budget deficit. Gingrich ties Romney, who has touted his business experienceand ability to create jobs in his campaign, on dealing with the economy.
Even though Gingrich has been criticized by some for his recent statements on illegalimmigration, 21% of Iowa caucus goers think he is the best candidate to handle that issue.About as many 20% - think Perry would handle illegal immigration best.
Which Candidate Will Do the Best Job On?(Among Republican Caucus-Goers)
Illegal
Economy Budget Deficit Health Care Immigration Tax ReformRomney 22% 17% 15% 13% 12%Gingrich 21 25 24 21 17Paul 15 19 15 15 21Perry 13 10 7 20 11
In this election, economic issues (71%) trump social issues (14%) among Republican caucus-goers. Even among most white evangelicals a Republican voter group that traditionallyfactors social issues more prominently in their voting decisions - economic issues matter more.
Which Candidate Views Will Matter More in Your Vote?(Among Republican Caucus-Goers)
All White EvangelicalsEconomic issues 71% 55%Social issues 14 25Both equally (volunteered) 13 18
And in one area, Romney runs a real deficit compared to his competitors. He has beencriticized for changing his position on some issues over the years; just 40% of Iowa caucus-goers think he says what he believes most of the time. More than half 53% - think he says
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what people want to hear the highest of any candidate. Four years ago, 56% of IowasRepublican caucus-goers thought Romney mostly said what he believed.
Do You Think?(Among Republican Caucus-Goers)
Says What Believes What People Want to HearPaul 81% 13Bachmann 63% 27Gingrich 63% 30Perry 56% 37Santorum 48% 24Romney 40% 53Huntsman 33% 23
Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann are tied for the top spot as the candidates who most sharethese voters values, and as the candidates who will best promote conservative principles.
Iowa caucus-goers think Newt Gingrich best understands their needs and problems, but justone in 10 choose him as the candidate who most shares their values.
Which Candidate ?(Among Republican Caucus-Goers)Shares Your Understands your Promote ConservativeValues Needs & Problems Principles
Bachmann 19% 11% 21%Paul 18 16 20Romney 16 13 10Gingrich 11 24 18Santorum 10 5 7Perry 10 10 10Huntsman 1 1 *(*) denotes less than 0.5%
Electability
When it comes to which is more important a candidate who agrees with you on the issues orone who has a good chance to win the presidency in 2012 Republican caucus-goers aredivided: 51% say agreement on the issues is most important, while 48% pick winning in 2012.
Whats More Important in Your Vote A Candidate Who?(Among Republican Caucus-Goers)
Agrees on the issues 51%Will win in 2012 48
Those who say that electability next November is most important to them go for Gingrich by alarge margin, with Romney coming in second. But among those who say its more importanttheir candidate agrees with them on the issues, Ron Paul has a slight edge over Gingrich, withRomney coming in third.
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Iowa Caucus-goers: Choice for Nominee Among(Among Republican Caucus-Goers)All Win in 2012 Agree on IssuesCaucus Goers Most Important Most Important
Gingrich 31% 43% 21%Romney 17 20 15Paul 16 8 23Perry 10 10 11Bachmann 9 8 10Santorum 4 2 5Huntsman 1 1 1
What They Want in a Candidate
Four in 5 caucus-goers want a candidate who will come up with new ideas to solve the countrysproblems, and two in 3 want one who is flexible about changing a position when necessary.
Whats More Important in Your Vote A Candidate Who?(Among Republican Caucus-Goers)
Has new ideas 82%Will continue Republican policies 10
Flexible when necessary 64%Sticks to positions 32
In this poll, Iowa caucus-goers say they are willing to back a candidate that may not necessarilyagree with them on some issues. Most say they would vote for a candidate who does not sharetheir views on immigration, or who holds views less conservative than their own.
Willing to Vote for a Candidate Who.?(Among Republican Caucus-Goers)
Yes NoHas views that are less conservative than yours 78% 19Does not share your views on immigration 62% 33Has changed his/her position on abortion 58% 32
Nearly six in ten caucus goers say they are willing to back a candidate who has changed his orher position on abortion, but this number drops among Tea Party supporters and evangelicals.
Willing to Vote for a Candidate Who.?(Among Republican Caucus-Goers)
White Evangelicals Tea PartyYes No Yes No
Has views that are less conservative than yours 80% 18 78% 19Does not share your views on immigration 64% 33 62% 32Has changed his/her position on abortion 44% 41 53% 35
Personal Life
A candidates personal life does matter to Republican caucus-goers; seven in 10 say thatshould be factored in along with his or her political record. Just three in 10 think only the
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political record matters. Evangelicals are particularly likely to say a candidates personal lifematters: 78% do so.
Republican Candidates Should be Judged On(Among Republican Caucus-Goers)
All White EvangelicalsPolitical record and personal life 69% 78%Political record only 29 21
And while now-former candidate Herman Cains support has dropped precipitously asallegations of past sexual misconduct surfaced over the past two months, Iowa front-runnerNewt Gingrichs support doesnt seem to be suffering from a personal history that includes threemarriages and two extra-marital affairs. While Gingrich leads handily among caucus-goers forwhom only the political record is important, he also leads among those who factor in acandidates personal life.
Iowa Caucus-goers: Choice for Nominee AmongAll Record & Personal Only RecordCaucus Goers Life Important Is Important
Gingrich 31% 27% 39%Romney 17 18 17Paul 16 19 10Perry 11 10 12Bachmann 9 9 7Santorum 4 5 1Huntsman 1 1 1
Other Considerations
A candidates religious beliefs are important to just over half of caucus-goers (and 80% ofevangelicals).
Important a Candidate Share your Religious Beliefs(Among Republican Caucus-Goers)
All White EvangelicalsVery 17% 28%Somewhat 38 52Not very 19 10Not all 26 9
There are two candidates in the race who are Mormon, and most caucus-goers say they arewilling to vote for a candidate who is Mormon. A majority (although a smaller percentage) alsosay most people they know would vote for a Mormon for president. Views are similar among
evangelicals.
Vote for a Mormon for President(Among Republican Caucus-Goers)
All White EvangelicalsWould vote for a Mormon 85% 77%Most people you know would vote for a Mormon 67% 65%
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Neither Gingrich nor Romney has spent the most time in Iowa, which is famous for rewardingretail politics leading up to the caucus but many voters say that only matters somewhat.
Importance of a Candidate Spending a Lot of Time in Iowa(Among Republican Caucus-Goers)Very important 14%Somewhat important 46Not too important 27Not at all important 13
Enthusiasm for Candidates
Newt Gingrich generates the most enthusiasm among caucus-goers; 43% say they wouldenthusiastically support him if he is the Republican nominee. 34% would enthusiasticallysupport Romney, and 31% say the same for Paul.
Enthusiasm if He/She Became Nominee Next Year(Among Republican Caucus-Goers)
Gingrich Paul Romney Bachmann PerryWould enthusiastically support 43% 31% 34% 34% 30%Would support with reservations 29 31 29 25 31Would support only because nominee 13 21 23 22 20Would not support 12 15 13 18 16
Views of the Candidates
Newt Gingrich is viewed the most positively of the candidates: 55% of caucus-goers have afavorable opinion of him, while just 16% view him unfavorably.
Mitt Romney (43%), Michele Bachmann (42%), and Ron Paul (39%) are all also viewed morepositively than negatively, though Romney had a much higher favorable rating (57%) among
caucus-goers at this point in the 2008 campaign than he does this time around.
Caucus-goers are more divided in their opinions of both Herman Cain, who suspended hiscampaign over the weekend, and Rick Perry about a third approve and disapprove of each.
Caucus-goers are largely undecided about Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman. Of those who dohave an opinion, Santorum is viewed more favorably, and Huntsman is viewed moreunfavorably.
Views of the Candidates(Among Republican Caucus-Goers)
Favorable Not favorable Undecided/dont know
Gingrich 55% 16 28Romney 43% 33 24Bachmann 42% 30 28Paul 39% 28 33Perry 35% 33 33Cain 35% 38 27Santorum 31% 13 57Huntsman 11% 22 67
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Attention to the Campaign
True to their reputation, Iowa caucus-goers are tuned in to the presidential race. 54% arepaying a lot of attention to the presidential campaign, and another 41% are paying someattention. In 2007, more were paying a lot of attention but there were contests among boththe Democrats and Republicans that year.
42% of caucus-goers say that compared to past presidential elections, they are moreenthusiastic about voting in the 2012.
_____________________________________________________________________
CBS News and The New York Times conducted telephone interviews November 30-December 5, 2011 with 642registered voters who said they would definitely or probably attend the Republican caucus in Iowa. The error due tosampling could be four points for caucus-goers.
The sample was drawn from two sources: the state of Iowas registered voter list, and an RDD sample of cell phoneinterviews.
Results were weighted by probabilities of selection and by demographic characteristics to reflect the eligible caucus-
goers on the Iowa voter list.
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CBS News/New York Times Iowa Poll
The Iowa Caucuses: Four Weeks to Go
November 29 December 4, 2011
q1-q4 SEPARATE RELEASE
q5 How likely is it that you will attend the Republican Iowa Presidential caucuses on
January 3? Will you definitely attend, probably attend, probably not attend, or definitely
not attend?
IOWA VOTERS REGISTERED IOWA
AS REPUBLICANS REPUBLICAN
OR INDEPENDENTS GOERS
% %
Definitely 15 49
Probably 16 51
Probably not 28 0
Definitely not 40 0
DK/NA 1 0
q6 How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2012 presidential campaign--a lot,
some, not much, or no attention so far?
* IOWA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS-GOERS *
%
A lot 54
Some 41
Not much 4
None at all 1
Don't know/No answer 0
q7 Compared to past Presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm
about voting in the 2012 Presidential election next year -- are you more enthusiastic than
usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual?
More 42Less 15
Same 43
Don't know/No answer 0
q8 If the Iowa Republican Presidential caucuses were held today, which candidate would you
support - Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry,
Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?
Newt Gingrich 28
Mitt Romney 18
Ron Paul 14
Rick Perry 10
Herman Cain 7
Michele Bachmann 4
Rick Santorum 4
Jon Huntsman 1
Someone Else (Vol.) 1
Undecided (Vol.) 10
No/No one 1
DK/NA 2
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q9 Is your mind made up or is it still too early to say for sure?
* IOWA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS-GOERS *
%
Mind made up 34
Too early to say for sure 66
DK/NA 0
q10 Would you describe your support for (Selected Candidate) as strongly favoring (SelectedCandidate), or do you like him/her but with reservations, or do you support (Selected
Candidate) because you dislike the other candidates?
*IOWA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS-GOERS*
Total Gingrich Romney
Voters Voters Voters
% % %
Strongly favor 46 47 39
Like but with reservations 45 42 51
Dislike other candidates 8 10 10
Don't know/No answer 1 1 0
q11 Who would be your second choice - Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Or Rick Santorum?
Mitt Romney 18 31 --
Newt Gingrich 16 -- 27
Ron Paul 15 17 14
Rick Perry 13 15 18
Michele Bachmann 10 7 7
Herman Cain 7 9 11
Rick Santorum 7 11 5
Jon Huntsman 3 2 5
Someone Else 1 0 0
Undecided (Vol.) 4 3 4
No/No one 2 3 2
DK/NA 4 2 7
q12 If the Iowa Republican Presidential caucuses were held today and THESE were the
candidates - Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt
Romney, and Rick Santorum - which candidate would you support?
Gingrich 31
Romney 17
Paul 16
Perry 11
Bachmann 9
Santorum 4
Huntsman 1
Someone else (vol.) 1
Undecided (Vol.) 6
No/No one 2
DK/NA 2
q13 Is your opinion of Michele Bachmann favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you
heard enough about Michele Bachmann yet to have an opinion?
Favorable 42
Not favorable 30
Undecided 18
Haven't heard enough 10
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q14 Is your opinion of Herman Cain favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you
heard enough about Herman Cain yet to have an opinion?
* IOWA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS-GOERS *
%
Favorable 35
Not favorable 38
Undecided 21
Haven't heard enough 6Refused 0
q15 How about Newt Gingrich?
(IF NECESSARY: Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, not favorable, undecided, or
haven't you heard enough about Newt Gingrich yet to have an opinion?)
Favorable 55
Not favorable 16
Undecided 17
Haven't heard enough 11
Refused 1
q16 How about Jon Huntsman?
(IF NECESSARY: Is your opinion of Jon Huntsman favorable, not favorable, undecided, or
haven't you heard enough about Jon Huntsman yet to have an opinion?)
Favorable 11
Not favorable 22
Undecided 13
Haven't heard enough 54
Refused 0
q17 How about Ron Paul?
(IF NECESSARY: Is your opinion of Ron Paul favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't
you heard enough about Ron Paul yet to have an opinion?)
Favorable 39Not favorable 28
Undecided 21
Haven't heard enough 12
Refused 0
q18 How about Rick Perry?
(IF NECESSARY: Is your opinion of Rick Perry favorable, not favorable, undecided, or
haven't you heard enough about Rick Perry yet to have an opinion?)
Favorable 35
Not favorable 33
Undecided 22
Haven't heard enough 10
q19 How about Mitt Romney?
(IF NECESSARY: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, not favorable, undecided, or
haven't you heard enough about Mitt Romney yet to have an opinion?)
Favorable 43
Not favorable 33
Undecided 18
Haven't heard enough 6
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q20 How about Rick Santorum?
(IF NECESSARY: Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, not favorable, undecided, or
haven't you heard enough about Rick Santorum yet to have an opinion?)
* IOWA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS-GOERS *
%
Favorable 31
Not favorable 13
Undecided 16Haven't heard enough 41
Refused 0
q21-q24 SEPARATE RELEASE
q25 Was there ever a time when you supported Herman Cain for the Republican nomination for
president, or not?
Yes 36
No 62
DK/NA 2
q26 Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2012, which candidate do you think most
understands the needs and problems of people like you -- Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain,
Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?
Gingrich 24
Paul 16
Romney 13
Bachmann 11
Cain 10
Perry 10
Santorum 5
Huntsman 1
All of them (vol.) 1
None of them (vol.) 3
DK/NA 6
q27 Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2012, which candidate do you think has the best
chance of defeating Barack Obama in the general election in November -- Michele Bachmann,
Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, or Rick
Santorum?
Gingrich 31
Romney 29
Perry 9
Paul 6
Cain 5
Bachmann 3
Huntsman 1
Santorum 1
All of them (vol.) 5
None of them (vol.) 2
DK/NA 8
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q28 Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2012, which candidate do you think is best
prepared for the job of President of the United States - - Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain,
Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?
* IOWA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS-GOERS *
%
Gingrich 43
Romney 20
Paul 11Perry 8
Cain 3
Bachmann 2
Santorum 2
Huntsman 1
All of them (vol.) 1
None of them (vol.) 3
DK/NA 6
q29 Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2012, which candidate do you think most
represents the values you try to live by -- Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich,
Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?
Bachmann 19
Paul 18
Romney 16
Gingrich 11
Perry 10
Santorum 10
Cain 6
Huntsman 1
All of them (vol.) 1
None of them (vol.) 2
DK/NA 6
q30 Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2012, which candidate do you think will do the
most to promote conservative principles -- Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich,Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?
Bachmann 21
Paul 20
Gingrich 18
Perry 10
Romney 10
Santorum 7
Cain 4
Huntsman 0
All of them (vol.) 1
None of them (vol.) 0
DK/NA 9
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q31 Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2012, which candidate do you trust most to
handle an international crisis -- Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?
* IOWA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS-GOERS *
%
Gingrich 44
Romney 16
Paul 10Perry 7
Bachmann 3
Cain 3
Santorum 3
Huntsman 2
All of them (vol.) 1
None of them (vol.) 3
DK/NA 8
q34 If Michele Bachmann became the Republican nominee for President next year, would you
enthusiastically support her, support her but with reservations, support her only because
she is the Republican Party nominee, or not support her?
Enthusiastically support 34
Support with reservations 25
Support only because nominee 22
Not support 18
Don't know/No answer 1
q35 If Herman Cain became the Republican nominee for President next year, would you
enthusiastically support him, support him but with reservations, support him only because
he is the Republican Party nominee, or not support him?
Enthusiastically support 26
Support with reservations 32
Support only because nominee 17
Not support 23Don't know/No answer 2
q36 If Newt Gingrich became the Republican nominee for President next year, would you
enthusiastically support him, support him but with reservations, support him only because
he is the Republican Party nominee, or not support him?
Enthusiastically support 43
Support with reservations 29
Support only because nominee 13
Not support 12
Don't know/No answer 3
q37 If Jon Huntsman became the Republican nominee for President next year, would you
enthusiastically support him, support him but with reservations, support him only because
he is the Republican Party nominee, or not support him?
Enthusiastically support 10
Support with reservations 23
Support only because nominee 36
Not support 18
Don't know/No answer 13
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q38 If Ron Paul became the Republican nominee for President next year, would you
enthusiastically support him, support him but with reservations, support him only because
he is the Republican Party nominee, or not support him?
* IOWA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS-GOERS *
%
Enthusiastically support 31
Support with reservations 31
Support only because nominee 21Not support 15
Don't know/No answer 2
q39 If Rick Perry became the Republican nominee for President next year, would you
enthusiastically support him, support him but with reservations, support him only because
he is the Republican Party nominee, or not support him?
Enthusiastically support 30
Support with reservations 31
Support only because nominee 20
Not support 16
Don't know/No answer 3
q40 If Mitt Romney became the Republican nominee for President next year, would you
enthusiastically support him, support him but with reservations, support him only because
he is the Republican Party nominee, or not support him?
Enthusiastically support 34
Support with reservations 29
Support only because nominee 23
Not support 13
Don't know/No answer 1
q41 If Rick Santorum became the Republican nominee for President next year, would you
enthusiastically support him, support him but with reservations, support him only because
he is the Republican Party nominee, or not support him?
Enthusiastically support 28
Support with reservations 23
Support only because nominee 27
Not support 15
Don't know/No answer 7
q42 Do you think the candidates for the Republican nomination for President should be
judged on both their political record and their personal life, or should they be judged
only on their political record?
Both 69
Only political record 29
DK/NA 2
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1
q43 Which of the following matters more to you in deciding which Republican presidential
candidate to support - the candidate's views on economic issues or the candidate's views on
social issues?
* IOWA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS-GOERS *
%
Economic 71
Social 14
Both equally (Vol.) 13Neither (Vol.) 0
DK/NA 2
q44 Thinking about the Republican party's nominee for President in 2012, if you had to
choose, which is more important to you -- having a Republican nominee who agrees with your
positions on most issues, or having a nominee with the best chance of defeating Barack
Obama in 2012?
Agrees with issues 51
Win in 2012 48
Don't know/No answer 1
q45 Thinking about the Republican nomination for president, is it more important that the
nominee be someone who has new ideas about dealing with the country's problems, or more
important that the nominee be someone who will continue the past policies of the Republican
party?
New ideas 82
Continue past policies 10
Both (vol.) 4
Neither (vol.) 1
Don't know/No answer 3
q46 Would you rather have a Republican nominee for president who takes a position and
sticks with it, or someone who is flexible about changing a position if they think that's
necessary?
Sticks to a position 32
Flexible about changing 64
DK/NA 4
q47 Would you be willing or not willing to vote for a candidate for the Republican
nomination who does not share your views on immigration?
Willing 62
Not willing 33
Don't know/No answer 5
q48 Would you be willing or not willing to vote for a candidate for the Republican
nomination who has views that are less conservative than yours if you thought that
candidate had a good chance to win the presidency in November 2012?
Willing 78
Not willing 19
Don't know/No answer 3
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q49 Would you be willing or not willing to vote for a candidate for the Republican
nomination who has changed his or her position on the issue of abortion?
* IOWA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS-GOERS *
%
Willing 58
Not willing 32
Don't know/No answer 10
q50 Thinking about your vote for president next year, how important is it that a candidate
shares your religious beliefs - is it very important, somewhat important, not very
important, not at all important?
Very important 17
Somewhat important 38
Not very important 19
Not at all important 26
DK/NA 0
q52 Would you prefer the Republican nominee for President be someone whose experience has
been mostly in politics and government, or someone whose experience has been mostly in the
business or private sector, or doesn't it matter to you?
Mostly politics and gvrnmt 17
Mostly business and private 34
Doesn't matter 48
Don't know/No answer 1
q55 Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2012, which candidate do you think is most
qualified to be Commander-in-Chief -- Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?
Gingrich 40
Romney 19
Paul 11
Perry 8Cain 4
Santorum 3
Bachmann 2
Huntsman 2
All of them (vol.) 1
None of them (vol.) 2
DK/NA 8
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q56 Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2012, which candidate do you trust most to
reform the federal tax system -- Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?
* IOWA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS-GOERS *
%
Paul 21
Gingrich 17
Cain 14Romney 12
Perry 11
Bachmann 7
Huntsman 2
Santorum 2
All of them (vol.) 1
None of them (vol.) 6
DK/NA 7
q57 Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2012, which candidate do you trust most to deal
with the economy and unemployment -- Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?
Romney 22
Gingrich 21
Paul 15
Perry 13
Cain 10
Bachmann 4
Santorum 3
Huntsman 1
All of them (vol.) 1
None of them (vol.) 2
DK/NA 8
q58 Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2012, which candidate do you trust most to
handle the federal budget deficit -- Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, JonHuntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?
Gingrich 25
Paul 19
Romney 17
Perry 10
Cain 9
Bachmann 5
Santorum 3
Huntsman 1
All of them (vol.) 1
None of them (vol.) 3
DK/NA 7
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q59 Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2012, which candidate do you trust most to deal
with health care -- Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul,
Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?
* IOWA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS-GOERS *
%
Gingrich 24
Romney 15
Paul 15Bachmann 13
Perry 7
Cain 5
Santorum 4
Huntsman 1
All of them (vol.) 2
None of them (vol.) 3
DK/NA 11
q60 Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2012, which candidate do you trust most to deal
with the issue of illegal immigration -- Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?
Gingrich 21
Perry 20
Paul 15
Romney 13
Bachmann 7
Santorum 4
Cain 3
Huntsman 1
All of them (vol.) 1
None of them (vol.) 3
DK/NA 12
q63 Do you think Michele Bachmann says what she believes most of the time, or does she say
what she thinks people want to hear?
What she believes 63
What she thinks people wan 27
DK/NA 10
q64 Do you think Herman Cain says what he believes most of the time, or does he say what he
thinks people want to hear?
What he believes 60
What he thinks people want 31
DK/NA 9
q65 Do you think Newt Gingrich says what he believes most of the time, or does he say what
he thinks people want to hear?
What he believes 63
What he thinks people want 30
DK/NA 7
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1
q66 Do you think Jon Huntsman says what he believes most of the time, or does he say what
he thinks people want to hear?
* IOWA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS-GOERS *
%
What he believes 33
What he thinks people want 23
DK/NA 44
q67 Do you think Ron Paul says what he believes most of the time, or does he say what he
thinks people want to hear?
What he believes 81
What he thinks people want 13
DK/NA 6
q68 Do you think Rick Perry says what he believes most of the time, or does he say what he
thinks people want to hear?
What he believes 56
What he thinks people want 37
DK/NA 7
q69 Do you think Mitt Romney says what he believes most of the time, or does he say what he
thinks people want to hear?
What he believes 40
What he thinks people want 53
DK/NA 7
q70 Do you think Rick Santorum says what he believes most of the time, or does he say what
he thinks people want to hear?
What he believes 48
What he thinks people want 24
DK/NA 28
q71 Do you think most people you know would vote for a presidential candidate who is
Mormon, or not?
Yes 67
No 19
DK/NA 14
q72 How about you? Would you vote for a presidential candidate who is Mormon, or not?
Yes 85
No 12
DK/NA 3
q73-q79 SEPARATE RELEASE
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2
q80 In deciding which candidate to support in the caucuses in January, how important is it
to you that the candidate has spent a lot of time in Iowa -- is that very important,
somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important?
* IOWA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS-GOERS *
%
Very important 14
Somewhat important 46
Not too important 27Not at all important 13
DK/NA 0
q81 How concerned are you that in the next 12 months you or someone else in your household
might be out of work and looking for a job -- very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not
concerned at all?
Very concerned 19
Somewhat concerned 32
Not at all concerned 49
q82 How would you rate the financial situation in your household these days? Is it very
good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad?
Very good 20
Fairly good 68
Fairly bad 8
Very bad 2
DK/NA 2
q83 Have you ever attended an Iowa Presidential caucus in the past, or will this be your
first time attending?
Attended in past 65
First time voter 34
DK/NA 1
q84 Did you attend the Iowa Republican Caucus in 2008?
IF YES: Did you support Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Ron Paul
or someone else?
Yes, Huckabee 27
Yes, Romney 13
Yes, McCain 12
Yes, Paul 8
Yes, Thompson 6
Yes, Someone else 4
Yes, Won't say/ can't reca 2
No, Didn't attend 27
DK/NA 1
q85 So far, have you watched or listened to any of the recent debates among the Republican
candidates running for president, or not?
Yes 71
No 29
DK/NA 0
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2
q86 During this presidential campaign, have you attended any campaign events or seen any of
the Presidential candidates in person, or haven't you?
* IOWA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS-GOERS *
%
Yes 27
No 73
q87 During this presidential campaign, have you personally organized or hosted a campaignevent for a Presidential candidate, or haven't you?
IF YES, Was that event at your home or somewhere else?
Yes, at home 1
Yes, somewhere else 9
No 89
Don't know/No answer 1
q88 Have you been contacted by any of the Republican candidates' presidential campaigns
through direct mail, email, by phone, in person by a campaign worker, or by meeting the
candidate in person, or haven't you been contacted?
Yes 78
No 22
q89 Have you been contacted by Michele Bachmann's campaign?
Yes 67
No 30
DK/NA 3
q90 (Have you been contacted by) Herman Cain's campaign?
Yes 54
No 42
DK/NA 4
q91 (Have you been contacted by) Newt Gingrich's campaign?
Yes 38
No 59
DK/NA 3
q92 (Have you been contacted by) Jon Huntsman's campaign?
Yes 12
No 85
DK/NA 3
q93 (Have you been contacted by) Ron Paul's campaign?
Yes 77
No 21
DK/NA 2
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q94 (Have you been contacted by) Rick Perry's campaign?
* IOWA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS-GOERS *
%
Yes 69
No 28
DK/NA 3
q95 (Have you been contacted by) Mitt Romney's campaign?
Yes 60
No 36
DK/NA 4
q96 (Have you been contacted by) Rick Santorum's campaign?
Yes 36
No 59
DK/NA 5
Unweighted Weighted
Iowa Republican Caucus-Goers: 642 583