"Causes & Effects of Climate Change: Impact on Long Island" Prof. Malcolm Bowman, Stony Brook University

8/9/2019 "Causes & Effects of Climate Change: Impact on Long Island" Prof. Malcolm Bowman, Stony Brook University

1/48

http://people.hofstra.edu/J_B_Bennington/research/long_island/LONG_ISLAND_GH_lg.jpg

Causes and Effects of Climate Change:

Impact on NYC & Long IslandMalcolm J. Bowman

School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences

Stony Brook University2010 Climate Change Conference: the Science, the Legislation and ExpandingRole of Individuals

The Metropolitan, Glen Cove NY 20 March 2010


2/48

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://unsweducation.wikispaces.com/file/view/greenhouse_effect.png/83618879/greenhouse_effect.png&imgrefurl=http://unsweducation.wikispaces.com/gdh&usg=__lvk0iajXvAFNC05RN75YWpJKjtk=&h=996&w=1238&sz=622&hl=en&start=1&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=SzPpCYrC-

VfQrM:&tbnh=121&tbnw=150&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dgreenhouse%2Beffect%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DX%26tbs%3Disch:1


3/48

Report published by the US Congress by the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural

Resources


4/48

Ref: Church, 2007


5/48

Change in annually averaged sea level at 23 geologically stable tide gauge sites with long-term records. The thickdark line is a three-year moving average of the instrumental records. This data indicates a sea level rise of~18.5 cm from 1900-2000. (Douglas, B.C. (1997). "Global Sea Rise: A Redetermination". Surveys in Geophysics 18:279292).


6/48

http://library.fws.gov/pubs5/web_link/images/fig16b.jpg


7/48

http://people.hofstra.edu/J_B_Bennington/research/long_island/LONG_ISLAND_GH_lg.jpg


8/48

Sea level rise is accelerating

Source: New York City Panel on Climate Change, Climate RiskInformation, February 17, 2009

inches

Sea level rise by the 2080s


9/48

Lidar image of business district of Manhattan showing seawall locations and

elevation (arrows). The imager is flying above the Hudson River looking east.


10/48

http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/track.html

The hurricane produced storm tidesof 14 to 18 feet across most of theLong Island and Connecticut coast,with 18 to 25 foot tides from New

London east to Cape Cod. Thedestructive power of the stormsurge was felt throughout thecoastal community. DowntownProvidence, Rhode Island wassubmerged under a storm tide ofnearly 20 feet while downtownWesthampton Beach, a mile inland,was under 8 feet of water!


11/48

Courtesy Scott Mandia, Suffolk Community College

http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/index.html


12/48


13/48

A severe storm in November 1950

caused extensive flooding of LaGuardia airport (Bloomfield, 1999)

FDR Drive during theDecember 1992 noreaster(Bloomfield, 1999)

Ref: Bloomfield, J., M. Smith and N. Thompson, 1999. Hot

Nights in the City. Environmental Defense Fund, New York.

(Science fact)


14/48

1992 Noreaster Flooding

Source: Metro New York Hurricane Transportation Study, 1995

1992 noreaster flooding of Hobokentrain station with seawater

A major shutdown of the New York City subway

and train system resulted


15/48

http://stormy.msrc.sunysb.edu

Max. tide @ 1800 hr03-13-10


16/48

Max storm surge @1800 hr 03-13-10


17/48

Storm surge at the Battery 03-13-10 8:22 pm. The orange shed with the solar roof panel,in front of the pick-up truck and the Staten Island Ferry (all trips cancelled) is the

famous Battery tide gauge.


18/48

The tide at the Battery continued to rise until 0030 EST 03-14-10.


19/48

Flooded promenade, looking west toward Jersey City.


20/48


21/48


22/48


23/48

1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

(Gloria 85)Donna (60)

Climatological Analysis of NYC Surges

A minor and moderate surge at the

Battery would result in a coastal floodadvisory and warning, respectively, by theNWS during a high tide (mean highwater).

Minor: 0.60-1.00 m above MHW

Moderate: >1.00 m above MHW

Maximum daily

surge at theBattery, NYC (1959 -2007)

(92 Nor-easter)

Source: Colle & Buonaiuto, SBU


24/48

Winds and sea level pressure, Hurricane Floyd, Sept 1999


25/48

Storm surge (m), Hurricane Floyd, Sept 1999


26/48

Worst case

scenario:hurricane

hits LI


27/48

A hurricane striking New York is

inevitable

It is not a question ofifa major

hurricane will strike the New Yorkarea, but when...

Max Mayfield, Director of the Tropical PredictionCenter/National Hurricane Center, May 24, 2006


28/48

New York is extremely

vulnerable to a hurricane Among 136 port cities around the world:

New York is among the top 10 in terms ofpopulation exposure

New York is second only to Miami interms of assets

Source: R.J. Nicholls et al., Ranking Port Cities withHigh Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Extremes,OECD, November 2008


29/48


30/48

A Catastrophic Storm Surge

~2,000,000 people & 740,000 households

~272,000 buildings 461 miles of major highways

88 emergency service facilities

80 healthcare facilities

Source: J. Friedman, NYC Emergency Management Office


31/48

Is New York City, by default

planning to be flooded?

The city now has no mitigation

actions for coastal flooding,according to the NYC Natural HazardMitigation Plan (NYC Office of

Emergency Management, March2009), and none of 9 potentialactions to protect the region.


32/48

Thames River Tidal Barrier, England, 1982


33/48


34/48

Eastern Scheldt, the Netherlands, 1986


35/48

Venice Lagoon Design, 2010


36/48

http://www.oceansatlas.org/unatlas/-ATLAS-/IMAGES/HIGH/i241-1.jpg

Ring road and storm barrier system presently being constructed around StPetersburg, Russia.


37/48

The 100-year flood at present mean sea level (Gornitz, 2001). In: Rosenzweig, C., and W.D. Solecki (eds.)2001. Climate change and a global city: the potential consequences of climate variability and change: Metro EastCoast. A report of the Columbia Earth Institute for the U.S. Global Change Research Program.

Proposed Barrier Locations


38/48

The Narrows Barrier

Souce: Jansen & Dircke, Arcadis


39/48

Gate Closed

Hydraulic Cylinder

East River Long Island Sound

Cut Off Wall

Source: M. Abrahams, PB


40/48

Arthur Kill Barrier

Source: Murphy & Schoettle, CDM


41/48

New York BightApex storm surgebarrier located atthe Sandy Hook Rockaway transect.The typical waterdepth across thetransect is ~ 20 ft,

except in the SandyHook and Ambrosenavigation channelswhere it is ~


42/48


43/48


44/48


45/48

Barrier Flood Delay(years)

Start Constructiontime (years)

Completion

Providence 1938 23 1961 5 1966

New Bedford 1938 24 1962 4 1966

Stamford 1938 27 1965 4 1969

Hollandse Ijessel 1953 1 1954 4 1958

Eastern Scheldt 1953 14-26 1967-1979 71986

Maeslant 1953 36 1989 8 1997

Venice 1966 37 2003 8 (2011)

Barrier construction delays


46/48

Comparative Barrier Costs

Barrier Dates Cost Exchangeratethen

$ Costthen

Costindex*

2006cost

EasternScheldt

1979-1986 3 billionguilders

3.32guilders/

$

$900 million 299/159 $1.7billion

ThamesRiver

1973-1984 600 million $1.328/ $800 million 299/153 $1.6billion

East River 1993 $1 billion --- $1 billion 299/190 $1.6

billion

TOTAL $5 billion

*U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Construction Cost Trends Composite Trend


47/48


48/48

Documents

"Causes & Effects of Climate Change: Impact on Long Island" Prof. Malcolm Bowman, Stony Brook University