Casting a Long ShadowDemand-Based Accounting of

Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Brett Dolter & Peter Victor

“It is a frightening thought that man also has a shadow side to him” Carl Jung

“It is a frightening thought that man also has a shadow side” Carl Jung

“It is a frightening thought that man each product also has a shadow side to him it” Carl Jung

“It is a frightening thought that man each product also has a shadow side” Carl Jung

Shadow Emissions

Shadow Emissions

Ecological Footprint

Production-Based GHG Emissions

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

Production GHGs

Gree

nhou

se G

as E

mis

sion

s (M

t CO

2e)

Includes GHG emissions generated in order to produce exports

Excludes GHG emissions generated in order to produce imports

What is Canada’s GHG Shadow?

Linear Algebra

Carl Friedrich Gauss, 1777 - 1855

Leontief Analysis

Wassily Leontief, 1906 - 1999

f = Final demand for goods and services within an area of interest

x = Total output required to produce final demand vector of goods and services

Ecological Economics Extension

Shadow Emissions

xi = output of industry i produced in order to supply Canadian final demand f

gi = greenhouse gas emissions intensity of industry i

Multi-Region Input-Output (MRIO)

WIOD Trade Matrices 1995 - 2009

Countries Included in the WIODAustria AUT Poland POLBelgium BEL Portugal PRTBulgaria BGR Romania ROMCyprus CYP Slovak Republic SVKCzech Republic CZE Slovenia SVNGermany DEU Sweden SWEDenmark DNK Australia AUSSpain ESP Brazil BRAEstonia EST Canada CANFinland FIN China CHNFrance FRA Indonesia IDNUnited Kingdom GBR India INDGreece GRC Japan JPNHungary HUN Korea KORIreland IRL Mexico MEXItaly ITA Rest of World RoWLithuania LTU Russia RUSLuxembourg LUX Turkey TURLatvia LVA Taiwan TWNMalta MLT United States USANetherlands NLD

Canadian GHG Shadow

Canada’s GHG Emissions

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

GHG Shadow Production GHGs

Gree

nhou

se G

as E

mis

sion

s (M

t CO

2e)

Contributors to GHG Shadow

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

CAN USA CHN ROW EU-27 IND RUS MEXBRA KOR JPN AUS TWN IDN TUR

Gree

nhou

se G

as E

mis

sion

s (M

t CO

2e)

GHG Emissions Released Abroad

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

USA CHN ROW EU-27 IND RUS MEXBRA KOR JPN AUS TWN IDN TUR

Gree

nhou

se G

as E

mis

sion

s (M

t Co2

e)

Provincial Story?

Allocating Canada’s GHG Shadow Across Provinces and Territories

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

NL PEI NS NB PQ ON MB SK AB BC YT NWT NVT

GHG

Emiss

ions

(Mt C

O2e

)

Per Capita Provincial Shadows

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

NLPEINSNBPQONMBSKABBCYTNWT & NVT

GHG

Shad

ow p

er ca

pita

(ton

nes C

O2e

/per

son)

19971999

20012003

20052007

20090

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000Newfoundland 1997-2009

19971999

20012003

20052007

20090

5001000150020002500300035004000

Prince Edward Island

19971999

20012003

20052007

20090

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000Nova Scotia 1997-2009

19971999

20012003

20052007

20090

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000New Brunswick 1997-2009

19971999

20012003

20052007

20090

20000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000

Quebec 1997-2009

19971999

20012003

20052007

20090

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000Ontario 1997-2009

19971999

20012003

20052007

20090

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000Manitoba 1997-2009

19971999

20012003

20052007

20090

1000020000300004000050000600007000080000

Saskatchewan 1997-2009

19971999

20012003

20052007

20090

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000Alberta 1997-2009

19971999

20012003

20052007

20090

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000New Brunswick 1997-2009

19971999

20012003

20052007

20090

20000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000

Quebec 1997-2009

19971999

20012003

20052007

20090

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000Ontario 1997-2009

19971999

20012003

20052007

20090

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000Manitoba 1997-2009

19971999

20012003

20052007

20090

1000020000300004000050000600007000080000

Saskatchewan 1997-2009

19971999

20012003

20052007

20090

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000Alberta 1997-2009

19971999

20012003

20052007

20090

100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000

100000British Columbia 1997-2009

19971999

20012003

20052007

20090

200400600800

100012001400

Yukon 1997-2009

19971999

20012003

20052007

20090

5001000150020002500300035004000

NWT & Nunavut 1997-2009

“It is a frightening thought that man each product also has a shadow side to him it” Carl Jung

“It is a frightening thought that man each product also has a shadow side” Carl Jung

“It is a frightening thought that man each province product also has a shadow side” Carl Jung Brett Dolter

Can Provinces Co-operate?“Ontario indicated it's willingness to move to stringent California-style emissions standards, but only if Alberta agreed on firm caps on industrial emissions.

The idea is anathema to Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach, who says any limits on that province's booming oil and gas industry would cost jobs and hurt the rest of the country.

Despite pressure from his colleagues, McGuinty would not commit to automobile standards -- a move that could harm Ontario’s own powerful industry -- without movement from Alberta on caps.” (2007)

Can Canada Co-operate?“I don’t think we should consider signing on to a deal that makes us virtually the sole country in the world that is going to take any action.”

Can Canada Co-operate?“I don’t think we should consider signing on to a deal that makes us virtually the sole country in the world that is going to take any action.”

Canada’s GHG Emissions

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

GHG Shadow Production GHGs

Gree

nhou

se G

as E

mis

sion

s (M

t CO

2e)

Questions?

Canadian GHG Emissions

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

GHG Shadow Production GHGs DTA GHG Shadow

Gree

nhou

se G

as E

miss

ions

(Mt C

O2e

)

Provincial GHG Shadows

NL PEI NS NB PQ ON MB SK AB BC YK NWT NVT0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Production Shadow (CTA) Shadow (Provincial Electricity)

GHG

Emis

sion

s (M

t CO

2e)