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EVALUATION OF PROJECTS-
TECHNICAL & FINANCIAL ASPECTS
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FEASIBILITY STUDIES
To implement any project an entrepreneur needs to carry out
different types of feasibility studies. These feasibility studies
evaluate all the risks and returns and try to balance them and
help the entrepreneur to finalize his plans.
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TYPES OF FEASIBILITY STUDIES
Managerial Feasibility
Economic Feasibility
Commercial Feasibility
Financial Feasibility Technical Feasibility
Social Feasibility
Market Feasibility
Technical and Financial aspects are discussed in detail in the
following slides.
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TECHNICAL FEASIBILTY
Under Technical appraisal the necessary facilities required for
production are analyzed viz.
Basic infrastructure - Land/Building/Utilities
Technology/Technical Process
Machinery/Raw Material/Labour
Licensing/Registration/Clearances
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An entrepreneur should have the requisite number of
technically capable people as well as technology required to
set up and run the plant. The technology should be such thatis can adapt to local conditions.
Technology transfer from overseas often fails in this
regard. The conditions in USA and America are quite
different from India. Most parts of India are hot and dusty.Sophisticated process controls have known to fail.
Therefore, knowledge and suitability to local conditions is
very important.
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Technical analysis thus is mainly concernedwith:
Material inputs and utilities
Manufacturing processes
Product mixes Plant capacities
Locations and sites
Machinery and equipments
Structures and civil work
Project charts
Lay outs & work schedules
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EVALUATION OF TECHNOLOGICALOPTIONS
The technology should be
Proven and tested; preference could be given to the
technology used by the market leader.
Up- to date; otherwise, the risk of obsolescence is high.
Cost effective and par excellence.
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CHOICE OF TECHNOLOGY
The choice of technology is influenced by many factors
such as:
Plant capacity
Principal Inputs
Investment outlay and production cost
Use by other units
Product mix
Latest Developments
Ease of Integration
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PROJECT MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES
CPM (Critical Path Method) and PERT (Programme Evaluation
Review Technique) are project management techniques, which
have been created out of the need of Western industrial and
military establishments to plan, schedule and control complex
projects.
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CPM/PERT
CPM/PERT can answer the following important questions
How long will the entire project take to be completed? What are
the risks involved?
Which are the critical activities or tasks in the project, whichcould delay the entire project if they were not completed on
time?
Is the project on schedule, behind schedule or ahead of
schedule? If the project has to be finished earlier than planned, what is
the best way to do this at the least cost?
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FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
A wide range of criteria are available to judge the worthiness of
investment projects. They fall into two broad categories:
Discounting criteria
1. Net Present value
2. Benefit cost ratio
3.Internal rate of return
Non-discounting criteria
1. Payback period
2. Accounting rate of return.
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NET PRESENT VALUE
The NPV of a project is the sum of the present values of all cash
flows-positive as well as negative that are expected to occur
over the life of the project
NPV = CFt
t=0 (1+k) t
where,
CFt = cash flow at the end of the year tn = life of the project
r = discount rate
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RULES FOR CONSIDERATION OF PROJECT:
The proposal for investment will be accepted if the NPV is
positive, and rejected if the NPV is negative.
If the NPV is zero then the project is in an indifferent position.
If a choice has to be made between two projects, the projectwith higher NPV will be accepted for investment.
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BENEFITS:
It considers the total benefit of an investment proposal over itslifetime.
Changes in the discount rate are easily reflected in the
evaluation process.
The most significant benefit of NPV is that it considers thetime value of money in calculations
NPV allows easy comparisons of returns from differentprojects, which enables rational resource allocation decisions tobe made
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DRAWBACKS
NPV cannot differentiate between a project with higher cashflows and a project with lesser cash flows in the early years
It does not provide the same base for comparison between twoprojects, with different lives of cash outflow
It is an absolute measure, and does not consider initial cashoutlays. Hence, it may not provide dependable results.
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BENEFIT COST RATIO:
BCR = PVB/I
Where PVB = Present value of benefits
I = Initial Investment
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RULES FOR CONSIDERATION OF PROJECT
If BCR =1, the decision will be indifferent
If BCR > 1, The Investment decision can be accepted
If BCR < 1, The Investment decision should be rejected
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BENEFITS
As this measures NPV Per rupee of outlay, it can discriminate
large and small investments and hence is preferable to NPV
method.
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DRAWBACKS
Under unconstrained conditions, this method will accept and
reject the same projects as NPV.
It provides no means for aggregating several projects into a
package that can be compared with a large project. When cash outflows occur beyond the current period, the
Benefit- Cost
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INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (IRR)
IRR of a project is the discountrate which makes its NPV = 0.
In the NPV calculation we assume that the discount rate is known
and determine the NPV.
In IRR Calculation we set the NPV= 0 and determine the discountrate that satisfies this condition
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RULES FOR CONSIDERATION OF PROJECT
If IRR > 1 accept the investment decision
If IRR < 1, reject the investment decision
BENEFITS
IRR is closely related to NPV.
This method is easy to understand and interpret.
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DRAWBACKS
This method may lead to multiple rates of return
This method may result into incorrect decisions in comparing
mutually exclusive projects
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MODIFIED INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN
To overcome this limitation, MIRR (MODIFIED INTERNAL
RATE OF RETURN) METHOD CAN BE ADOPTED:
Here,
PV OF CASH OUTFLOW= Terminal value of cash inflow
________________________
(1 + MIRR)
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BENEFITS / DRAWBACKS
BENEFITS
MIRR assumes that project cash flows are reinvested at thecost of capital. Hence it reflects better the profitability of a
project The problem of multiple rates does not existDRAWBACKS
For choosing among mutually exclusive projects of different
size, NPV is a better alternative in measuring the contribution
of each project to the value of the firm.
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PAY BACK METHOD
This method is the length of time required to recover the initial
cash outlay on the project.
RULES FOR CONSIDERATION OF PROJECTThe shorter the pay back period, the project will be more
desirable for consideration
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BENEFITS/DRAWBACKS
BENEFITS
It is simple in concept and application
It is a rough and ready method for dealing with risk
DRAWBACKS
It does not consider the time value of money
It ignores cash flows beyond the payback period
It is a measure of capital recovery and not profitability
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To overcome this limitation, the discounted Payback period is
considered.
Here, the cash flows are first converted into their present
values (by applying suitable discounting factors) and then added
to ascertain the period of time required to recover the initial
outlay of the project.
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BENEFITS / DRAWBACKS
BENEFITS
It is simple to calculate
It is based on information that is easily available
It considers benefits over entire life of the project
DRAWBACKS
It is based on accounting profit and not cash flow
It does not take into account Time value of money.
It is internally inconsistent
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CONCLUSION
To conclude,
For small sized projects, it is best to use Pay back and ARR
method and for larger projects, IRR method is suitable.
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WHY DO SOME PROJECTS FAIL?
Most projects suffer from one or more of the followingproblems:
Customers are not satisfied with the deliverables.
Deadlines are missed.
Budgets are chronically overrun. Team members are disgruntled.
Many projects never end.
The team members are not committed to the project
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STEPS TO CREATING MORE SUCCESSFUL
PROJECTS
The three key steps to creating more successful projects
are:
Have a process template and keep improving upon it.
Adapt a team based and participative approach.
Use project management methods.
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STEP 1:
A project exists to produce a unique product, service, process,
or plan. Since each product is unique, each set of steps to create
the product should be unique. Hence, rather than starting from
the scratch on each project and making up a set of steps, mostprojects can work off a process template that serves as a
starting point for how to create the deliverable.
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For example, for a project such as software development, the
organisation probably has a software development process that
project teams use when creating a new or improved software
program. This process template defines a generic set of stepsto follow that will get one from concept to design to coding to
testing.
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STEP 2
Project success depends on the project team. The new project
management approach is team-based and participative. The
project leader acts as a facilitator to the team and as a guide
through the project management process. The team creates theproject plan, monitors and controls the project and assesses
what went well and what should be improved for the next
project.
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This new approach to project management means project
managers must learn new skills: conflict resolution, active
listening, team participation, and team decision making-skills.
The participative approach to managing a project is a critical
factor in creating better project results.
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STEP 3
Project results are improved when a project management methodology is
used. Project management methodology is a set of tools and techniques
that help project team to:
Produce deliverables that will satisfy the client.
Get the project done on time.
Prevent constantly changing project requirements.
Get the project done within budget.
Make sure the project doesnt drag on forever.
Ensure that all stakeholders have a voice in the process.
Make the project a more satisfying experience for team members.