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Carroll IndependentSchool District

Demographic Report

Fall 2016

Economic Conditions- Dallas-Fort Worth MSA

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Unemployment Rate

OCTOBER 2016Texas Southlake

DFW3.6%

4.4% 3.4%

7% 5% 4% 3%6%

Annual Job Growth RateOCTOBER 2016

DFW3.3%

0% 2% 3% 4%1%

Source: Texas Workforce Commission

1.7%

USA4.7%

TexasUSA

Local Economic Conditions

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• Sabre GLBL will be expanding its headquarters in the Solana Business Park

• The expansion is expected to create at least 500 new jobs, and bring over $37 Million in capital investment

• Charles Schwab is opening a major regional hub facility in Westlake

• Plans call for 5,000 employees to be headquartered on the new campus, with 1,200 of those being new hires

• The campus will bring $100 Million in capital investment• Groundbreaking expected in the second half of 2017 with

completion expected by early 2019.

Carroll ISD Home SalesJanuary – November 2016 Sales by Transaction Type

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• The district has had 705 home sales to date in 2016, and roughly 17% were of new homes

• The average sale price in 2016 for a new home is $775,886

• The average sale price in 2016 for an existing home is $629,522

Source: Metrostudy and Tarrant County Deed Transactions

Regular Resale79%

New Home Sale17%

REO Sale2%

Forclosure2%

YTD 2016Home Sales

by Type

DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 3Q16

5Source: Metrostudy

Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future1 Frisco ISD 2,755 2,597 3,637 7,8282 Denton ISD 2,055 1,977 2,400 17,0003 Prosper ISD 2,417 1,814 4,227 28,2784 Lewisville ISD 1,358 1,295 1,637 3,8495 Northwest ISD 1,464 1,247 2,112 20,9916 Little Elm ISD 1,044 1,204 1,381 4,8177 Dallas ISD 1,361 1,154 2,484 6,0108 Eagle Mt.‐Saginaw ISD 850 906 783 20,4629 Keller ISD 772 844 931 1,88110 Rockwall ISD 965 721 1,949 8,14311 Mansfield ISD 765 674 1,054 6,32412 Crowley ISD 769 666 612 9,39213 McKinney ISD 784 625 1,683 5,70114 Wylie ISD 733 606 889 4,76915 Forney ISD 611 578 818 14,60116 Allen ISD 580 497 1,104 1,52917 Coppell ISD 482 469 728 35518 Burleson ISD 426 466 564 3,18819 Plano ISD 476 453 970 2,77520 Waxahachie ISD 467 435 661 10,064

* Based on additional research by TD staff

31 Anna ISD 256 221 268 3,86032 Carroll ISD 221 211 324 660*33 Carrollton‐Farmers Branch ISD 217 186 198 1,463

New Housing Activity

• Carroll ISD is on pace to start more than 200 homes in 2016• The district has closed 166 new homes in the first 3 quarters of 2016, up from the

same period in 2015• Carroll ISD currently has an 11.2 month’s supply of new homes, due to higher than

average price points

Carroll ISD

6Source: Metrostudy

0

50

100

150

200

250

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Annual Starts Annual Closings Avg Inventory

Starts 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Closings 2012 2013 2014 2015 20161Q 17 34 58 34 68 1Q 10 20 26 24 382Q 22 43 44 47 50 2Q 14 19 49 52 723Q 20 48 46 77 51 3Q 21 35 51 56 564Q 27 46 57 52 4Q 16 48 29 45

Total 86 171 205 210 169 Total 61 122 155 177 166

Annual Closings Distribution 3Q16

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Elementary Zone Annual ClosingsCARROLL 48JOHNSON 107OLD UNION 10ROCKENBAUGH 0WALNUT GROVE 46Grand Total 211

Vacant Developed Lots 3Q16

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Elementary Zone VDLCARROLL 57JOHNSON 143OLD UNION 46ROCKENBAUGH 0WALNUT GROVE 78Grand Total 324

Future Lots 3Q16

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Elementary Zone Future LotsCARROLL 0JOHNSON 161OLD UNION 8ROCKENBAUGH 0WALNUT GROVE 491Grand Total 660

District Housing Overview

Future Subdivision Active Subdivision

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• Carroll ISD has appx. 330 lots available to build on

• The district has 660 future lots planned

Active SubdivisionCarillon Southlake

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Carillon Southlake• 403 total lots• 261 homes occupied• 44 homes under construction• 76 vacant developed lots• Building appx. 85 homes per year• Current student yield: 0.73• Johnson Elementary

Active SubdivisionsCreekview Addition

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Creekview Addition• 106 total lots• 64 homes occupied• 12 homes under construction• 26 vacant developed lots• Building appx. 25 homes per year• Current student yield: 1.03 • Carroll Elementary

Active SubdivisionsGranada

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Keller ISD

Granada• 84 total lots• 43 future lots

• 30 future lots in CISD• 6 homes occupied• 20 homes under construction• 14 vacant developed lots• Phase 2 (42 lots) delivering mid-December

2016• Building appx. 12 homes per year• Split between Keller ISD and Carroll ISD• Current student yield: 0.50• Walnut Grove Elementary

13 future lots in

Keller ISD

Northwest ISD

Active SubdivisionSouthlake Meadows

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Southlake Meadows• 105 total lots• Phase 1 (60 lots) delivered and

homebuilding has begun• Phase 2 (36 lots) expected lot delivery

mid 2018• Phase 3 (9 lots) Preliminary Plat

approved March 2016 • No timeline for development

• Building appx. 24 homes per year• No current students• Walnut Grove Elementary

Active SubdivisionShady Oaks

Shady Oaks• 148 total lots• 105 homes occupied• 9 homes under construction• 29 vacant developed lots• Building appx. 10-15 homes per year• Current student yield: 1.29

Walnut Grove Elementary

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Future SubdivisionEntrada Westlake

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Northwest ISD

Keller ISD

Entrada Westlake• Future mixed use development • 207 total future lots in CISD• Groundwork underway and very

close to delivering• A portion of this subdivision falls in

Northwest ISD• Walnut Grove Elementary

Future SubdivisionEstates of Quail Hollow

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Estates of Quail Hollow• 92 total future lots• Groundwork underway

• 52 lots delivering February 2016• 29 lots delivering September 2017• 18 lots delivering January 2018

• Building appx. 10-15 homes per year• A portion of this subdivision falls in Keller ISD

(appx. 33 lots)• Walnut Grove Elementary

Future SubdivisionsMoss Farms & Shady Lane

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Moss Farms• 13 total future lots• Lots delivered• No current students• Johnson Elementary

Shady Lane• 15 total future lots• Lots delivered an will begin

homebuilding soon• Building appx. 5 homes per year• $1.5M and up• Johnson Elementary

Ten Year ForecastBy Grade Level

*Yellow box = largest grade per year*Green box = second largest grade per year

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• Carroll ISD will reach more than 8,500 students by the fall of 2020 • 5 year growth = 372 students• 2021/22 enrollment = 8,582• 10 year growth = 669 students• 2026/27 enrollment = 8,879

Year (Oct.) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th TotalTotal 

Growth % Growth2012/13 121 449 474 499 515 571 599 621 660 672 637 666 627 600 7,7112013/14 110 457 474 523 529 560 596 634 630 700 686 624 665 624 7,812 101 1.3%2014/15 123 439 513 504 549 583 586 614 665 640 708 676 618 666 7,884 72 0.9%2015/16 162 476 504 549 541 579 612 628 642 691 663 722 673 626 8,068 184 2.3%2016/17 195 474 510 540 577 587 616 659 635 670 706 659 713 669 8,210 142 1.8%2017/18 195 486 531 545 571 614 623 663 675 661 685 706 651 706 8,312 102 1.2%2018/19 195 513 528 559 570 603 642 670 670 703 685 680 702 648 8,368 56 0.7%2019/20 195 522 556 556 584 592 627 692 680 697 718 681 673 695 8,468 100 1.2%2020/21 195 520 568 578 578 615 613 674 704 708 712 718 673 668 8,524 56 0.7%2021/22 195 523 558 587 596 601 636 658 684 734 720 708 714 668 8,582 58 0.7%2022/23 195 527 565 577 607 622 632 677 668 713 746 714 704 708 8,655 73 0.9%2023/24 195 535 568 585 603 635 647 676 690 696 726 746 710 698 8,710 55 0.6%2024/25 195 536 576 588 606 629 669 692 687 718 713 726 712 703 8,750 40 0.5%2025/26 195 543 581 597 611 633 659 715 703 715 740 713 693 706 8,804 54 0.6%2026/27 195 546 586 601 620 638 663 705 728 732 729 740 709 687 8,879 75 0.9%

One Year Forecast By Campus and Grade

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Current 2017/18 Enrollment Projections by GradeCampus    Capacity 2016/17 EE/PK KG 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Change

Carroll Elementary 639 585 69 95 107 104 111 111 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 597 12Walnut Grove Elementary 721 667 0 92 95 144 143 178 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 652 ‐15Johnson Elementary 560 619 8 126 138 123 132 130 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 657 38Old Union Elementary 441 463 38 86 100 81 86 92 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 483 20Rockenbaugh Elementaty 577 549 80 87 91 93 99 103 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 553 4ELEMENTARY TOTALS 2,938 2,883 195 486 531 545 571 614 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,942 59Durham Intermediate 849 673 0 0 0 0 0 0 337 351 0 0 0 0 0 0 688 15Eubanks Intermediate 688 602 0 0 0 0 0 0 286 312 0 0 0 0 0 0 598 ‐4INTERMEDIATE TOTALS 1,537 1,275 0 0 0 0 0 0 623 663 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,286 11Carroll Middle School 840 689 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 354 362 0 0 0 0 716 27Dawson Middle School 846 616 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 321 299 0 0 0 0 620 4MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS 1,686 1,305 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 675 661 0 0 0 0 1,336 31Carroll High School 1,555 1,365 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 685 706 0 0 1,391 26Carroll Senior High  1,544 1,382 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 651 706 1,357 ‐25HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 3,099 2,747 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 685 706 651 706 2,748 1TOTAL ENROLLMENT 9,260 8,210 195 486 531 545 571 614 623 663 675 661 685 706 651 706 8,312 102

Ten Year ForecastBy Campus

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*Yellow box = Enrollment exceeds stated campus capacity

Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSCampus   Capacity 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27

Carroll Elementary 639 585 597 620 635 651 650 651 657 666 676 681Walnut Grove Elementary 721 667 652 620 610 601 615 631 640 639 642 644Johnson Elementary 560 619 657 679 686 702 700 712 718 722 733 743Old Union Elementary 441 463 483 492 509 524 509 506 504 500 507 512Rockenbaugh Elementary 577 549 553 557 565 576 586 593 602 603 602 606ELEMENTARY TOTALS 2,938 2,883 2,942 2,968 3,005 3,054 3,060 3,093 3,121 3,130 3,160 3,186Elementary Absolute Change 72 59 26 37 49 6 33 28 9 30 26Elementary Percent Change 2.56% 2.05% 0.88% 1.25% 1.63% 0.20% 1.08% 0.91% 0.29% 0.96% 0.82%Durham Intermediate 849 673 688 726 734 709 694 685 697 725 736 736Eubanks Intermediate 688 602 598 586 585 578 600 624 626 636 638 632INTERMEDIATE SCHOOL TOTALS 1,537 1,275 1,286 1,312 1,319 1,287 1,294 1,309 1,323 1,361 1,374 1,368Intermed. Absolute Growth 35 11 26 7 ‐32 7 15 14 38 13 ‐6Intermed. Percent Change 2.82% 0.86% 2.02% 0.53% ‐2.43% 0.54% 1.16% 1.07% 2.87% 0.96% ‐0.44%Carroll Middle School 840 689 716 731 744 787 794 766 752 740 754 785Dawson Middle School 846 616 620 642 633 625 624 615 634 665 664 675MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS 1,686 1,305 1,336 1,373 1,377 1,412 1,418 1,381 1,386 1,405 1,418 1,460Middle Absolute Growth ‐28 31 37 4 35 6 ‐37 5 19 13 42Middle School Percent Change ‐2.10% 2.38% 2.77% 0.29% 2.54% 0.42% ‐2.61% 0.36% 1.37% 0.93% 2.96%Carroll High School 1,555 1,365 1,391 1,365 1,399 1,430 1,428 1,460 1,472 1,439 1,453 1,469Carroll Senior High School 1,544 1,382 1,357 1,350 1,368 1,341 1,382 1,412 1,408 1,415 1,399 1,396HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 3,099 2,747 2,748 2,715 2,767 2,771 2,810 2,872 2,880 2,854 2,852 2,865High School Absolute Growth 63 1 ‐33 52 4 39 62 8 ‐26 ‐2 13High School Percent Change 2.35% 0.04% ‐1.20% 1.92% 0.14% 1.41% 2.21% 0.28% ‐0.90% ‐0.07% 0.46%DISTRICT TOTALS 9,260 8,210 8,312 8,368 8,468 8,524 8,582 8,655 8,710 8,750 8,804 8,879District Absolute Growth 142 102 56 100 56 58 73 55 40 54 75District Percent Change 1.76% 1.24% 0.67% 1.20% 0.66% 0.68% 0.85% 0.64% 0.46% 0.62% 0.85%

Summary

• Southlake’s unemployment rate is below 3.5%.

• Roughly 17% of district home sales are of new homes.

• The average new home sale price in Carroll ISD is more than $775,000.

• More than 50% of the district annual closings fall within Johnson Elementary due to activity within Carillon.

• Within Carroll ISD, there are only has 660 future lots planned.

• CISD can expect an increase of approximately 370 students during the next 5 years.

• 2021/22 enrollment projection 8,582.

• CISD is projected to have nearly 8,900 students for the 2026/27 school year.

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