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FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004 Jarmo Koistinen and Heikki Pohjola Finnish Meteorological Institute

CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

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CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004. Jarmo Koistinen and Heikki Pohjola Finnish Meteorological Institute. Main achievement. A fully operational method has been created which estimates surface precipitation (SP) in a radar network. Scientific principle. Profile measurement volume. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

CARPE DIEMWP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

Jarmo Koistinen and Heikki Pohjola Finnish Meteorological Institute

Page 2: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

Main achievement

• A fully operational method has been created which estimates surface precipitation (SP) in a radar network

Page 3: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

1(2)

Surface estimate: dBZ(0,r)=dBZ+S

),(

),0(log10

rhZ

rZS

e

e

Profile measurement volume

Scientific principle

Page 4: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

1(2)

The SP scheme in a radar network applies time series of measured and climatological VPRs from each radar as well as spatial VPRs from all radars

Page 5: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

1(2)

An automatic real time classification scheme of VPRs has been created

Statistics of VPR from March 2001 to August 2003 (556 471 profiles)

Page 6: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

Climatological VPRs are modified applying the freezing level height field from hourly NWP model forecasts

•Freezing level height variation can be very large and irregular between radars, especially close to frontal zones.•Example: HIRLAM model freezing level height 21.8. 2003 17 UTC

Page 7: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

Climatological (blue) and measured VPRs (red) in a rain case at IKA, ANJ and VAN radars, 11

UTC

Page 8: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

13 UTC

Page 9: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

Example: Occluded front, June 14th 2004

03 utc

10 utc

17 utc

Page 10: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

1(2)

24 h accumulated precipitation June 14, 2004, 17 UTC 500 m PsCAPPI Surface precipitation

Page 11: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

Validation of the method has been performed applying two methods

1. Overlapping radar pairs2. Gauges

Page 12: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

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1(2)

Validation of the SP scheme with overlapping radars

Measurement range 5 – 15 km

1. Precipitation profile diagnosed at Radar 2

2. > 50 overlapping bins pairs (Rad1, Rad2) in the common, overlapping area (max. 10020)

3. Difference (dB) in those bins (Rad 2 – Rad 1) tells under/overestimation at the distance r from Rad 1

4. Average bias and standard deviation calculated for several radar pairs.

Page 13: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

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Radar pair Ikaalinen-Vantaa Feb – May 2003, distance 193 km. Blue: 500 m PsCAPPI. Red: SP with measured and climatological VPRs. Black: only measured VPRs.

Page 14: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

Validation: Gauge – Radar comparison• 375 WMO stations

• 24 hour accumulated precipitation

• Data: 1.4.-3.6, 12.6-20.10. 2004

• Log (G/R)

Page 15: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

Page 16: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

Page 17: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

Page 18: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

Page 19: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

Range 150 – 200 km, 1 < G < 10 mmNote scatter and large G, large VPR

effect

Page 20: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

Range 150 – 200 km, 1 < G < 100 mmNote scatter and small (!) VPR effect

Page 21: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

Page 22: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

Remaining challenges

· Elimination of overhanging precipitation, OP (should precede any SP scheme)

· Beam overshooting the VPR completely (no signal)· Highly variable VPR heights (e.g. embedded convection)· Errors in the assumed beam height (propagation, pointing

angle calibration errors)

Page 23: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

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OP diagnostics from radars: BASE height

Page 24: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

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OP diagnostics from NWP model fields

• 3D distribution of precipitation from NWP models• Relative humidity (RH)• Cloud water content (CWC)• Solid and liquid precipitation (not

available, yet?)

• Clouds when RH over selected threshold (Sundqvist scheme): Excessive humidity to liquid or solid CWC.

Page 25: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

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Example of overhanging precipitaiton at Vantaa radar

HIRLAM PsCAPPI

Relative

humidity

Vantaa radar

Cloud water content

VPR

Page 26: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

Statistical comparison of OPs from the radars and from the NWP model HIRLAM

• Cloud water content profiles from HIRLAM 6 hour forecasts at the closest gridpoint vs. VPRs above the radars

• If correlation -> HIRLAM data can be used for OP diagnosis of radar data

• Totally 1827 OP profiles from March 2001 to May 2002

POD = 0,67 FAR = 0,71

Conclusion: Model performance not good enough

Page 27: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

Example of overhanging precipitaiton at Vantaa radar

HIRLAM PsCAPPI

Relative

humidity

Vantaa radar

Cloud water content

VPR

Page 28: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

Objective: Calculation of attenuation applying water phase distribution of hydrometeors along each ray

· Principle: freezing level height fixed at each radar, obtained from NWP and VPR, attenuation calculated separately in each water phase layer

· Liquid precipitation: k(dB/km)=1.12*10-4 Ze0.62

· Solid (dry) precipitation: k(dB/km)=1.1*10-7 Ze +

2.1*10-5 (Ze)0,5

· Bright band (constant thickness assumed): k=? (Hantwerker ERAD2004, Zawadzki pers. comm.)

Page 29: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

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Severe C-band attenuation in rain

Page 30: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

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Severe rain,hail and radome attenuation at 07:00

Page 31: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

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Less attenuation

Page 32: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

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ANJ lowest PPI, B-scan 07:00

Page 33: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

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B-scan after attenuation correction due to rain

Page 34: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

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B-scan of cumulative attenuation in rain

Page 35: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

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Attenuation10 dB

Azimuth angle

Attenuation due to rain at 250 km. Can’t recover the observed minima in the B-scan Radome and/or hail

attenuation significant.

Page 36: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

WP 7 Summary, deliverables

– Diagnosis of hydrometeor liquid water fraction in 3D radar volumes, based on NWP model fields. Applied both in VPR scheme and in phase-dependant attenuation (done).

– At short ranges: 3D diagnosis of overhanging precipitation (OP) based on volumetric radar data i.e. VPR profile above the radar and BASE-composite (done).

– At long ranges: Improvement of radar derived surface precipitation by eliminating areas of OP based on radar network and NWP model data (tried but could not be achieved due to the poor performance of the NWP model data)

Page 37: CARPE DIEM WP 7 Progress Report, November 2004

FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

WP 7 Summary, deliverables

– Comparison of attenuation statistics applying 1. 3D water phase from a NWP model and specific attenuation for

rain, sleet and snow2. Attenuation due to rain only3. Attenuation due to snow only (ongoing).

– Automatic real time classification of the type of the measured VPRs (done)

– Improvement of radar derived surface precipitation using integrated surface precipitation scheme (“VPR correction”) from the radar network, applying freezing level height from a NWP model (ready, operational and validated). Writing of a Journal paper will be started next week.