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Carbon Omission:
How the U.S. Media Failed to Connect
Extreme Weather
to Climate Change in
2018
Acknowledgments
This reportwas researched andwritten by Angelica Greco, intern, and David Arkush,managingdirector,ofPublicCitizen’sClimateProgram.
About Public Citizen
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Public Citizen Carbon Omission 2018
January 31, 2019 1
Introduction
The year 2018 saw an extraordinary number of significant developments on climate change. AnabridgedlistincludesHurricanesMichaelandFlorence,rapidlythawingArcticice,anunprecedentedwildfire season, numerous record‐breaking high temperatures and devastating heat waves, andcontinuingeffortsbytheDonaldTrumpadministrationtopromotetheburningof fossil fuelsandreversepoliciesthatcombatglobalwarming.Additionally,multipledire,authoritativereportswerereleased,includingVolumeIIoftheFourthNationalClimateAssessmentandtheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)specialreportontheimpactofwarmingof1.5°C.1
Surveys consistently show that the vast majority of Americans would welcome more climatereporting.Seveninten(69percent)saytheyare“interested”inclimatechange;thesamepercentageare at least “somewhatworried”about it; and72percent say the issue is “somewhat,” “very,”or“extremely”importanttothempersonally.2Despitethesehighlevelsofinterestandconcern,only56percentofAmericanssaytheyhearaboutclimatechangeinthemediaatleastonceamonth.3
Thisreportexaminesmediacoverageoftopicsrelevanttoclimatechangethatgarneredsignificantattention in 2018—extreme weather events—and assesses the extent to which media outletsexplicitlyconnectedthemtoclimatechange.
Onthewhole,theproportionofpiecesthatmentionedclimatechangewasdisappointinglylow.Therewasnoclimate‐relatedformofextremeweatherthatthemediaconnectedtoclimatechangeinmorethan35percentofpieces.Thathigh‐watermarkcomes fromarticlesdiscussingrecorddrought.4Extremeheatfaredsimilarly,with34percentofpiecesmentioningclimatechange.Forhurricanes,theratewasjust7percent.
Wealsoconsidered thecriticalquestionwhethernewsoutletsmentionedsolutionsormitigationwhendiscussingclimatechange.Coveragefellfarshortonthisscore,withjust13percentofpiecesonclimatealsomentioningsolutions.Newspapersandtelevisionnetworksperformedsignificantlyworsethanthataveragenumberforallmedia,withratesof8percentand5percent,respectively.
Onebrightspotinthisanalysisisthatthemediadidbetterin2018than2017onnearlyalltopics—andoftensignificantlybetter.(Atthesametime,wemusttakecarenottoover‐interpretaone‐yearchange as a durable trend.) There were many other highlights of climate‐reporting as well—numerousexcellentpiecesbyindividualreporters,afewpublicationsthatstandoutasproducinga
1 U.S. Global Change Research Program, Fourth National Climate Assessment, Our changing climate, Nov. 2018,https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Globalwarming of 1.5°C, Oct. 2018,https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/.2AnthonyLeiserowitz,etal.,ClimatechangeintheAmericanmind:December2018,Jan.22,2019,https://pubc.it/2WrhNTn.3Id.4Throughout,thisreport,wewritelooselyofpieces“discussing”thetermsforwhichwesearched,aswecountedanarticleifitmerelyturnedupintheresultsofasearchforatermregardlessofthecharacterorextentoftherelevantdiscussion.Wealsouse“article”loosely,asmanyofthepiecesdiscussedareopinioncolumns,editorials,ortranscriptsoftelevisionbroadcasts.
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highvolumeandhigh‐qualityworkand,perhapsmostnotably,thelaunchoftheInvadingSeaproject,acollaborativeeffortbytheMiamiHerald,ThePalmBeachPost,theSun‐Sentinel,andWLRNPublicMediatospuractiononthethreatofsea‐levelriseinFlorida.
Forproducers,editors,orreporterswhowanttoknowwhetherorhowtodiscussclimatechangeinthecontextofextremeweather,thereareexcellentguides.MajorexamplesareClimateCentral,inparticular its ClimateMatters program, and Climate Nexus, including its Climate Signals project.Public Citizen has relied on these organizations in drafting memoranda offering suggestions toreporters at the onset of extreme‐weather seasons.5 It is also worth noting that the science ofascertaining thedegree towhichclimatechangecontributed toagivenweatherevent,knownas“attributionscience,”isimprovingrapidly.InthecaseofHurricaneFlorencelastyear,researcherswere able to show before the storm evenmade landfall that climate changewasmagnifying itsanticipatedrainfall,intensity,andsize.6
Finally, aswe have discussed in other analyses, newsrooms thatwant to provide better climatereportingfortheiraudiencesbutlacktheresourcestodosocanadaptorreprintstoriesfrombetter‐resourcedpublicationsorwireservices,someofwhichareproducingagooddealofexcellentwork.7StandoutsincludeTheNewYorkTimes,TheWashingtonPost,andtheAssociatedPress.
Methodology
Forthisanalysis,wesearchedtelevisionnewstranscripts,printnewspaperarticles,andonlinenewsarticlesonclimate‐relevanttopics—forexample,“recordheatwave”or“historicflooding”—tofindthenumberofpiecesoneachtopicthatmentionedanddidnotmentionclimatechange.ThetermsweusedarelistedinTable1attheendofthisreport.Wecountedapieceasdiscussingatopicifitmadethebarestmentionoftherelevantterms—thatis,ifthepiecemerelyturnedupinthesearchresultsforthoseterms.
Thelistofthetop50U.S.papersbycirculationwascompiledusingdatafromCisioninMay2018andis limited to English‐language, subscription newspapers. Many significant local dailies are notincluded,suchasThePalmBeachPostandTheCharlotteObserver.Thesameistrueofpapersthatcover CapitolHill, likeTheHill,Politico, andRollCall (although the list of digitalmedia includesPolitico.com).Thisanalysisalsodoesnotincluderadioorlocaltelevision.
5SeePublicCitizen,Notetoreportersandeditorialboards:Ashurricaneseasonbegins,connectthedotstoclimatechange,May31,2018,https://pubc.it/2J3vBAo;PublicCitizen,Notetoreportersandeditorialboards:Assummerbegins,remembertoconnectthedotsbetweenextremeheatandclimatechange,June22,2018,https://pubc.it/2WtZPQ2.6 See Kevin A. Reed, Estimating the potential impact of climate change on Hurricane Florence, Sep. 12, 2018,https://pubc.it/2Ws2Lwu.7See,e.g.,PublicCitizen,Extremesilence:HowtheU.S.mediahavefailedtoconnectclimatechangetoextremeheatin2018,July26,2018,https://pubc.it/2AdkBMv.
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WeusedNexis to search the top50U.S. newspapers and television transcripts fromsixnationaltelevisionnewsnetworks(ABC,CBS,CNN,Fox,MSNBC,andNBC).8Weusedthe“GroupDuplicates”feature,seton“HighSimilarity.”Wedidnotexaminetheresults,oftenvoluminous,todiscardfalsepositives.
Foronlinesources,weusedMediaCloud’s“U.S.TopOnlineNews2017”collection,whichincludes32sources.9Media Clouddoes not permit proximity searches, inwhich one searches for two termswithinacertainnumberofwordsofoneanother,orinthesamesentenceorparagraph.Therefore,ininstanceswhereweusedproximitysearchesfortelevisiontranscriptsandnewspapers,wewerelimitedtousingtheANDconnectorfordigitalcontent.Asaresult,somesearchesofdigitalsourcesaresignificantlymoreinclusivethanthosefornewspapersandtelevision.
Analysis
Withthe fall2018releasesofVolumeIIof theFourthNationalClimateAssessmentandthe IPCCspecialreportonglobalwarmingof1.5°C,theconnectionsbetweenanthropogenicclimatechangeandextremeweathereventshavebecomeonlyclearer.Below,wediscusssomecommontypesofclimate‐influencedextremeweatherandevaluatetheextenttowhichU.S.mediaconnectedthemtoclimatechangein2018.
Heat.Higherglobaltemperaturesareoneoftheprincipalandbestknowneffectsofclimatechange.Ofthepast17years,16havebeenthehottestonrecord.10Inaddition,asglobalwarmingincreasesaverageannualtemperatures,thenumberofextremelyhotindividualdaysisrisingfaster.11
In2018,ayearwhenrecordhightemperaturesscorchedareasacrosstheglobe,just33percentofarticlesinthetop50newspapersmentioningrecordorextremeheatalsomentionedclimatechange.Thisisaslightimprovementover2017,whentheratewas28percent.Theratewashigherononlinenewssites,with38percentofarticlesmentioningclimatechange(comparedto39percentin2017).
8Thenewspapersare:TheArizonaRepublic,ArkansasDemocrat‐Gazette,AtlantaJournal‐Constitution,TheBaltimoreSun,The Boston Globe, The Buffalo News, Chicago Sun‐Times, Chicago Tribune, The Cincinnati Enquirer, The Plain Dealer(Cleveland),TheColumbusDispatch,DallasMorningNews,TheDenverPost,DetroitFreePress,EastBayTimes,HonoluluStar‐Advertiser,HoustonChronicle,IndianapolisStar,KansasCityStar,LasVegasReview‐Journal,LosAngelesTimes,TheMercuryNews,MiamiHerald,MilwaukeeJournalSentinel,DailyNews(NewYork),NewYorkPost,TheNewYorkTimes,Newsday,TheOklahoman,OmahaWorld‐Herald, TheOrange County Register, TheOregonian,Orlando Sentinel, Philadelphia Inquirer,PittsburghPost‐Gazette,TheSacramentoBee,TheSanDiegoUnion‐Tribune,SanFranciscoChronicle,TheSeattleTimes,St.LouisPost‐Dispatch,St.PaulPioneerPress,StarTribune,TheStar‐Ledger,SunSentinel,TampaBayTimes,TheTimesPicayune,USAToday,TheVirginian‐Pilot,TheWallStreetJournal,TheWashingtonPost.9AccordingtoMediaCloud,thecollectionincludesthe“topnewswebsitesoftheyearbyAugust2017intheUnitedStates,accordingtodatafromcomScore,ActivateandAlexa.”Thewebsitesare:blogs.wsj.com,Breitbart,BusinessInsider,Buzzfeed,CBSNews,CNBC,CNN,DailyCaller,DailyNews,Forbes,FOXNews,Guardian‐UnitedStates,HuffingtonPost,LATimes,NBCNews,NewYorkTimes,NewYorker,NewsMax,Politico,Reuters,Slate.com,TheAtlantic,TheBlaze,Time,USAToday,Vox,WallStreetJournal,WashingtonPost,andYahooNews‐LatestNews&Headlines.MediaCloudliststhreeadditionalwebsitesinthecollection(Bloomberg,DrudgeReport,andfinance.yahoo.com)foratotalof32,butitdoesnotappeartohaveanycontentfromthesethreesitesfortheperiodcoveredbythisanalysis.10U.S.GlobalChangeResearchProgram,FourthNationalClimateAssessment,Ourchangingclimate,Nov.2018,https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/(visitedJan.9,2019).11Id.
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On television networks, the rate was lower: Only 22 percent of television news segments alsomentioned climate‐related terms.Televisionnetworks improved significantly from2017 to2018though.In2017,only10percentofsegmentsonextremeheatmentionedclimate.
Drought,Rainfall, and Flooding. Climate change is altering precipitation around the world inseveralways.Insomeareas,itincreasesordecreasesthetotalamountofrainorsnowfall.Inothers,total precipitation may remain roughly the same, but become concentrated into fewer, heavierevents.12 Heavier precipitation causes more runoff, potentially leading to drought.13 Whereprecipitation remains the same overall,warmer temperatures can lead tomore evaporation andthereforedrierconditionsandmoredrought.Bothdroughtsandheavydownpoursareincreasingduetoclimatechange,andclimatechangeisalsoprojectedtoworsenU.S.droughtsseverelyinthecomingdecades.14
Regardingdroughtcoverage,wefoundimprovementacrossallmediacategoriesbetween2017and2018.Thispastyear,nearly40percentoftelevisionnewstranscriptsthatmentioneddroughtalsomentionedclimatechange—animprovementon2017,whenonly27percentdidso.Therewasasimilar increase among the top 50 newspapers; although only 18 percent of articles on droughtmentionedclimatechangein2017,theratejumpedto33percentin2018.Foronlinenewssources,25percentlinkeddroughttoclimatechangein2017,and36percentdidsoin2018.
Thenumbersareworsewhenitcomestoextremerainfall.Fortelevisionnews,only11percentofpiecesthatmentionedextremerainfallalsomentionedclimatechange inboth2017and2018. In2018, 25 percent of print media stories on extreme rainfall connected it to climate change, animprovementover19percent in2017.Onlinenewssourceswerethemost likelyto linkextremeprecipitationtoclimatechange,with32percentofonlinepiecesmakingtheconnection(versus28percentin2017).
Thenumbersonfloodingarelesspromisingstill.Ingeneral,outletsreportedonextremefloodinglessoftenthantheyreportedonextremeheat,drought,orrainfall.Ofthearticlesthatturnedup,fewmentionclimatechange.In2018,thetopnewspaperspublished45piecesthatmentionedextremeflooding, ofwhich only five (11 percent),mentioned of climate change.National television newsnetworksandtoponlinenewssitesransimilarlysmallnumbersofpieces,24and44,respectively,mentioningclimatechangeatratesof8percentand23percent,respectively.Theratesfor2017fornewspapers,television,andonlinesourceswere7percent,14percent,and11percent,respectively.
Wildfires.Climatechangehaslengthenedthewildfireseason,andU.S.wildfireshavebeengrowingbothintotalareaburnedandfinancialcost.15Wildfireshaveburnedrecordamountsoflandacross
12ClimateCommunication,Precipitation,floodsanddrought,http://pubc.it/2kHdhhv(visitedJan.9,2019)13ClimateSignals,Droughtriskincrease,https://pubc.it/2WuTjsh(visitedJan9,2019).14U.S.GlobalChangeResearchProgram,FourthNationalClimateAssessment,Ourchangingclimate,Nov.2018,https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/(visitedJan.9,2019).15ClimateNexus,Wildfires,http://pubc.it/2BpRgeK(visitedJan.9,2019)
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theUS.Between2000and2016,wildfiresburnedapproximately3.7millionacresoflandintheUSeachyear.In2015,arecord10.2millionacresburned.16
In 2018, a yearwhenwildfires lead to record losses of human life and property, the data showimprovementacrossallmediacategoriescomparedto2017.In2017,televisionnetworksmentionedclimatechangeinonly8percentoftranscriptswhererecordwildfirewasmentioned;thatnumberincreasedto21percentin2018.Thetop50papersalsoimproved;19percentof2017articleslinkedwildfirestoclimatechange,while29percentdidsoin2018.Onlinenewssourcesalsoimproved,withtherateofmentioningclimateincreasingfrom22percentin2017to28percentin2018.
Thelistoftop50U.S.papersincludesmultipleoutletsinCalifornia,thestateaffectedmostdirectlybyseverewildfiresin2018.Californiapapersthereforemighthaveprintedaninordinatenumberwildfirearticlesfocusedonemergencyeffortsorothermatterswithwhichonewouldnotexpectadiscussion of climate change. Indeed, if one excludes California papers, the rates of connectingwildfirestoclimatechangefornewspapersin2018improvesfrom29to34percent.For2017,bycontrast,excludingCaliforniapaperschangestheoverallfigurebyanegligible0.3percent.
Hurricanes.Like2017,theyear2018sawmultiplehurricaneswhosedestructionwasexacerbatedbyclimatechange.In2017,itwasHarvey,Irma,Maria,andNate.In2018,itwasFlorenceandMichael.
There are well‐established links between climate change and increased hurricane damage. Forexample,warmeroceantemperatures leadtostrongerwindsandfaster intensificationofstorms.Warmerairleadstomorerain(andworseflooding)andhighersealevelsworsenstormsurges.17
Hurricanes Harvey, Maria, and Irma were among the top five most expensive hurricanes in UShistory,withacombined$265billionindamage.18Despitetheserecent,staggeringeconomiccosts,aswellas thehuman toll, theU.S.media in2018continuedrarely todiscusshowhuman‐causedclimatechangecontributestothedevastationfromhurricanes.
In 2018, online news sources published 10,895 pieces on the hurricanes named above. Only 10percent of those pieces (1,041) mentioned climate change. For television news, of the 2,090transcripts thatmention the hurricanes, amere 8 percent (165)make the connection to climatechange. Print media fared the worst. Of the 11,983 articles mentioning the hurricanes, 567 (5percent)mentionedclimatechange.Asformostothertopics,thesenumbersareimprovementsover2017,whentherateswere6percentfortelevisionandonlinemediaand3percentfornewspapers.
16 U.S. Global Change Research Program, Fourth National Climate Assessment, Forests, Nov. 2018,https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/6/(visitedJan.9,2019).17ClimateSignals,Intensecyclone,hurricane,typhoonfrequencyincrease,https://pubc.it/2WvkaED(visitedJan.9,2019);U.S.GlobalChangeResearchProgram,FourthNationalClimateAssessment,Ourchangingclimate,Nov.2018,https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/(visitedJan.9,2019).18 Office for Coastal Management, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Hurricane costs,https://pubc.it/2WvAiWD(visitedJan.15,2019).
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Thelistoftop50U.S.newspapersincludessomepapersfromFlorida,Louisiana,andTexas—statesdirectlyaffectedbyhurricanesin2017and2018.Ifoneexcludespapersinthosestates,theratesinthoseyearsimproveto4and6percent,respectively.
Table2belowprovidesmoredetaileddataonmentionsofextremeweatherandclimatechange.
Solutions
Perhapsthemostcriticalquestiononclimatechangeiswhetherandhowwecansolvetheproblem.Significantwarminghasalreadyoccurred,andmoreisunavoidable.Butitisstillpossibletopreventtheworstharmswithpoliciesthatarenotjustfeasibleandaffordable,butbeneficialontheirownterms, even if not formitigating climate change,19 aswell aswidely popular across the politicalspectrum.20It iscriticalthatmediaoutletsdiscusstheavailability,affordability,andpopularityofclimatesolutionssothatthepublicandpolicymakerscanmakeinformeddecisions.
Ouranalysis found that themedia is falling far shorthere. In2018,only8percentofnewspaperarticles, 5 percent of television transcripts, and 16 percent of online news articles mentionedsolutions or mitigation in pieces discussing climate change. Like most other topics, these ratesrepresentimprovementsover2017,inwhich6percentofprintnewspaperarticles,13percentofonlinenewspieces,and3percentoftelevisionbroadcastsmentionedmitigationorsolutions.FullresultsonsolutionsareavailableinTable3below.
Conclusion
Climate change is the greatest crisis of our time. Responding to it adequately will requireextraordinaryengagementbythepublicandimportantdecisionsbybothvotersandpolicymakers.Newsmediahaveamajorroletoplayinprovidingkeyinformationaboutthecrisisandsolutionstoinformthoseactions.Onewaytoreportonthesubjectissimplytoconnecteverydaycoveragetoclimatewhererelevant;anotheristocovertheclimatecrisisdirectly,includingbydiscussinghowwecanmitigateit.Thisanalysisfindsthat,onthewhole,majornewsoutletsfellshortonbothtypesofcoveragein2018.
19See,e.g.,KirkHamilton,MilanBrahmbhatt, JiemeiLiu,Multiplebenefits fromclimatechangemitigation:Assessing theevidence,GranthamResearchInstituteonClimateChangeandtheEnvironment(2017),https://pubc.it/2ME7Pt4;DavidArkush,“Howmovingawayfromfossilfuelscansavelivesandleadtoexpandedhealthcoverage,”TheHill,June30,2017,http://pubc.it/2CSgS4U.20 See, e.g., Timothy Cama, “Poll: Majorities of both parties support Green New Deal,” The Hill, Dec. 17, 2018,https://pubc.it/2WxOKNE;seegenerally,YaleProgramonClimateCommunication,Yaleclimateopinionmaps2018,Aug.7,2018,https://pubc.it/2Wum882.
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Tables
Table 1. Search Terms
Topic Search Terms*
Drought ("historic drought" OR "record drought" OR "severe drought" OR "extreme drought")
Floods ("historic flood*" OR "record flood*" OR "severe flood*" OR "extreme flood*")
Extreme heat ("heat record*" OR "record heat" OR "record heat wave*" OR "extreme heat" OR "severe heat" OR "historic heat")
Rainfall ("historic rainfall" OR "record rainfall" OR "severe rainfall" OR "extreme rainfall")
Wildfires wildfire* /3 (historic OR severe OR extreme OR record OR record‐setting OR record‐breaking OR unprecedented OR catastrophic OR massive OR deadliest OR worst OR deadly)
Hurricanes ("hurricane michael") OR ("hurricane florence") OR ("hurricane harvey") OR ("hurricane irma") OR ("hurricane maria") OR ("hurricane nate")
Climate change and solutions
(("climate change" OR "global warming" OR "changing climate") /s solution) OR (("climate change" OR "global warming" OR "changing climate") /s mitigat*) OR (("climate change" OR "global warming" OR "changing climate") /s solv*)
* For Media Cloud, we used “AND” instead of proximity connectors such as “/3” or “/s”.
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Table 2. Mentions of extreme weather and climate change by the top 50 U.S. newspapers by circulation and six national television news networks, 2018
Topic Sources
2018 2017
Mentioned Climate
Total Pieces Percentage
Mentioned Climate
Pieces Total Percentage
Drought
All Sources 283 811 34.9% 206 916 22.5%
Newspapers 111 339 32.7% 63 356 17.7%
Television 23 59 39.0% 15 56 26.8%
Online News 149 413 36.1% 128 504 25.4%
Flooding
All Sources 17 113 15.0% 18 189 9.5%
Newspapers 5 45 11.1% 6 88 6.8%
Television 2 24 8.3% 4 29 13.8%
Online News 10 44 22.7% 8 72 11.1%
Heat
All Sources 643 1,889 34.0% 514 1,642 31.3%
Newspapers 251 756 33.2% 177 641 27.6%
Television 57 258 22.1% 19 188 10.1%
Online News 335 875 38.3% 318 813 39.1%
Rainfall
All Sources 136 514 26.5% 156 670 23.3%
Newspapers 49 200 24.5% 48 251 19.1%
Television 7 62 11.3% 7 64 10.9%
Online News 80 252 31.7% 101 355 28.5%
Hurricanes
All Sources 2,038 29,187 7.0% 2,415 51,773 4.7%
Newspapers 567 11,983 4.7% 623 18,996 3.3%
Newspapers (Exclu‐ding FL, LA, and TX)
265 4,219 6.3% 339 7,920 4.3%
Television 165 2,090 7.9% 181 3,115 5.8%
Online News 1,041 10,895 9.6% 1,272 21,742 5.9%
Wildfire
All Sources 2,463 8,855 27.8% 1,031 5,067 20.3%
Newspapers 507 1,746 29.0% 131 696 18.8%
Newspapers (Excluding CA)
230 677 34.0% 65 341 19.1%
Television 133 638 20.8% 29 355 8.2%
Online News 1,593 5,794 27.5% 806 3,675 21.9%
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Table 3. Mentions of mitigation or solutions and climate change by the top 50 U.S. newspapers by circulation and six national television news networks, 2018
Sources
2018 2017
Mentioned solutions
Total pieces on climate Percentage
Mentioned solutions
Total pieces on climate Percentage
All Sources 4,327 34,545 12.5% 5,063 48,990 10.3%
Newspapers 1,097 13,741 8.0% 926 15,228 6.1%
Television 69 1,429 4.8% 61 1,967 3.1%
Online News 3,161 19,375 16.3% 4,076 31,795 12.8%
