Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Carbon Capture and Storage in the Global Climate Picture
Tim DixonIEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme
University of Alberta12 May 2017
IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme (IEAGHG)
• A collaborative international research programme founded in 1991
• Aim: To provide information on the role that technology can play in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from use of fossil fuels.
• Focus is on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS)
• Producing information that is:Objective, trustworthy, independentPolicy relevant but NOT policy prescriptiveReviewed by external Expert Reviewers
What is CCS?
Source: DNV
Why CCS ?
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportSynthesis Report
2nd November 2014Copenhagen
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Key Messages
➜ Human influence on the climate system is clear
➜ The more we disrupt our climate, the more we risk severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts
➜ We have the means to limit climate change and build a more prosperous, sustainable future
AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM, AR5 WGIII SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
The Choices We Make Will Create Different Outcomes
With substantial mitigation
Withoutadditionalmitigation
Change in average surface temperature (1986–2005 to 2081–2100)AR5 WGI SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
AR5 SYR SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Sources of emissionsEnergy production remains the primary driver of GHG emissions
35%24% 21% 14% 6.4%
2010 GHG emissions
Energy Sector
Agriculture, forests and
other land usesIndustry Transport
Building Sector
AR5 WGIII SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Mitigation Measures
More efficient use of energy
Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy• Many of these technologies exist today
Improved carbon sinks• Reduced deforestation and improved forest management
and planting of new forests • Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage
Lifestyle and behavioural changesAR5 WGIII SPM
IPCC AR5 – Role of different low‐carbon energy technologies
IPCC AR5 SYR from Table 3.2 (2014)
© OECD/IEA 2016
IEA ETP: CCS plays a key role in 2°C
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2013 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtCO2
Renewables 32%
CCS 12%
Power generation efficiencyand fuel switching 1%
End‐use fuel switching 10%
End‐use efficiency 38%
Nuclear 7%
6DS
2DS
Global CO2 reductions by technology area, 2013‐2050
© OECD/IEA 2016
IEA: 94Gt CO2 captured and stored in 2DS
From 50Mt in 2020 to 6Gt in 2050 A total of 94Gt captured and stored through 2050
52Gt 56% power 29Gt 31% process industries 13Gt 14% gas processing and biofuel production
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
MtCO2
Other
Gas processing
Biofuels
Chemicals
Cement
Iron and steel
Biomass power
Gas‐fired power
Coal‐fired power
CCS deployment by sector in the 2DS
• ‘Climate Action Now’ UNFCCC - 18 Nov 2015
• High level summary of policy actions with high mitigation potential at 2020
• Builds on Technical Expert Meetings (TEMs)
• Includes CCUS as one of the six priority areas
• Significance of Boundary Dam CCUS project
• Solutions through international cooperation – eg IEAGHG, CSLF, GCCSI
CCS in UNFCCC
2005 - IPCC SR on CCS
2005– 2011 CCS in CDM?
2011 – CCS CDM Abu Dhabi workshop 2011 - COP-17 CCS in CDM
2014 - ADP TEM on CCS – project focussed 2014 - COP-20 – CCS projects Side Event 2015 - COP-21 – CCS projects Side Event
COP-21 Paris (2015)
COP-21 – Paris Agreement
• Article 2 – ‘Objectives’• Purpose of the agreement is limit warming to “well below” 2.0
C (by 2100) and pursue 1.5C • To be delivered by the pledges in Articles 3 and 4
• Increasing adaptation• Ensuring finance• Continues principle of “common but differentiated
responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances”
COP-21 – Paris Agreement
• Article 3 and Article 4 – ‘Mitigation’ • via (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
• Global peak of emissions asap, rapid reductions thereafter to achieve balance between emissions and sinks in second half of century
• Developed countries to lead, Developing countries to enhance efforts over time. Reflecting common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances
• NDCs to be updated very 5 years to represent a progression (from 2020) (current INDCs cover from 2020 to 2025 or 2030)
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)
Climate Action Tracker http://climateactiontracker.org/global/173/CAT-Emissions-Gaps.html
• 187 INDCs submitted• 94% global emissions• New trajectory to ~ 2.7C • ~ 3.6C from existing policies
• CCS in 10 INDCs Bahrain MalawiCanada NorwayChina Saudi ArabiaEgypt South AfricaIran UAE
(and EU and USA)
COP-21 – Paris Agreement
• Article 10 – ‘Technology Development and Transfer’• technology framework to provide overarching guidance to
the Technology Mechanism (ie CTCN) in promoting technology development and transfer
• “strengthen collaborative approaches to research and development”
• Technology neutral at the moment, depends on the technology framework which will be developed
Photo Courtesy of IISD/ENB
UNFCCC
Paris Agreement• Reached the threshold for coming into force when 55 Parties
ratified with 55% of global emissions, this was reached on 5 October, and the Paris Agreement came into force on 4 November 2016. A year ahead of anticipated schedule. As of
4 April 2017, 141 Parties have ratified out of 197.• Work underway to develop and agree the details by 2018 COP
so as all can come into force in 2020
• ‘Unburnable Carbon’ = fossil fuel reserves which cannot be used under a global carbon budget
• Stranded Assets = the result of above
• ‘Carbon Bubble’ = over-valuation of fossil fuel-producing companies if cannot use all reserves
CCS and ‘Unburnable Carbon’
Study on ‘Unburnable Carbon’ and CCS – Conclusions
The global carbon budget erodes quickly
The impact of CCS on unburnable carbon is significant, starting from 2030/2040 and becoming more apparent by 2100
Global CO2 storage capacity (volumetric) is large and well above known fossil fuel current reserves
May need pressure and brine management - induce higher storage costs
CCS enables access to significant quantities of fossil fuels in a 2°C world
Cost assumptions do not limit CCS uptake in IAMs
But there are other factors that limit CCS uptake in IAMs
Hypothesis: residual emissions
Global CCS Update
Very Active region
Active region
R&D/Pilots
Active region
Developing Interest
Commercial-scale Application of CCS (to date)
1996
Sleipner 1Mt/y CO2
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Weyburn2.5 Mt/y CO2
Snohvit 0.7Mt/y CO2
2010 2012 2014 20162018
In-Salah1.2 Mt/y CO2
160km sub sea pipeline350km overland
pipeline
8
7
1
2
6
9
Injection Ongoing
Injection Scheduled 2013‐2015
Large‐volume tests Four Partnerships currently injecting CO2
Remaining injections scheduled 2013‐2015
Injection began Nov 2011
Injection Started April 2009
Core Sampling Taken
Note: Some locations presented on map may differ from final injection location
Injection began August 2012
RCSP Phase III: Development PhaseLarge‐Scale Geologic Tests
Injection started in depleted reef February 2013
Injection Started May 2013
Monitoring well
drilling started
3Partnership Field Project –
Geologic FormationMetric Tons Injected to
Date
Big Sky Kevin Dome- DuperowFormation 0
MGSC Illinois Basin Decatur-Mt. Simon Sandstone > 850,000
MRCSP Michigan Basin -Niagaran Reef > 234,000
PCOR
Bell Creek -Muddy Sandstone > 741,000
Fort Nelson -Sulfur Point Formation 0
SECARB
Early Test (CranfieldField) - Tuscaloosa
Formation> 4,300,000
Anthropogenic Test (Citronelle Field) –Paluxy Formation
> 100,000
SWP Farnsworth Unit -Morrow Formation > 102,000
WESTCARB Regional Characterization
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
4
5
Injection startedOctober 2013
Courtesy NETL 2014
2013 Port Arthur Project
• H2 Plant – SMR operated by Air Products• Consists of 2 Trains of SMR
• Retrofit capture VSA• Operational 2013• 1mt CO2 pa to EOR
2014 Worlds first integrated coal fired power plant with CCS• SaskPower’s Boundary
Dam Coal PS, Saskatchewan, Canada
• 110MWe Retrofit • Shell/Cansolv Post combustion
capture technology.• EOR, and storage at Aquistore• Started operation October 2014• 2016 - International CCS
Knowledge Centre
2015
Quest, Shell CanadaH2 Refining1mt CO2 pa to DSF storage
Lula, Petrobras, BrazilOffshore gas separation and CO2-EOR
2016-2017 Power Sector
Kemper County, USAPetra Nova, NRG Parish, USA
Refit of existing coal fired unit Operational in late 2016 MHI amine based PCC
technology 250 MW slip stream 90% capture CO2 for EOR
• Novel IGCC Technology• 524 MW lignite fired – new build• 65% of total emissions captured• Due on stream 2017
Other New Developments • Norway
• Assessing 3 industry CCS projects• Offshore Assessments
• Gulf States• Uthmaniyah CO2-EOR Demonstration Project, Saudi
Aramcoo Source Gas processing – 0.8Mt/y
• The Abu Dhabi CCS Projecto CO2 capture capacity of 0.8 Mtpa,o the world’s first iron and steel project
» Precombustion CO2 capture
© OECD/IEA 2016
IEA: 20 Years of Carbon Capture and Storage
New IEA CCS publication, released on 15 November at GHGT‐13 and COP‐22.
Three sections:
1. Two decades of progress
2. Towards well below 2°C: An increased role for CCS
3. The next 20 years: Picking up the pace
http://www.iea.org/topics/ccs/
© OECD/IEA 2016
IEA: Shifting to “well below”:Targeting remaining emissions in the 2DS
Remaining CO2 emissions in the 2DS in 2050
0
10
20
30
40
2013 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtCO2
Othertransformation
Agriculture
Power
Buildings
Transport
Industry
Industry the largest source of emissions in 2050 (45%) Industry accounts for 33% of aggregate emissions to 2050
© OECD/IEA 2016
IEA: Beyond net zero emissions
© MCC (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change) www.mcc-berlin.net.
‐ 1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2013 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtCO2
Fossil CCS powergeneration (captured)
Fossil CCS industry andfuel transformation(captured)
Bio‐CCS powergeneration (negativeemission)
Bio‐CCS fueltransformation(negative emission)
“Negative emissions” in the 2DS
ADM’s Illinois Industrial CCS Project: the first large-scale BECCS project
© OECD/IEA 2016
IEA: 20 Years of Carbon Capture and Storage
New IEA CCS publication, released on 15 November.
Three sections:
1. Two decades of progress
2. Towards well below 2°C: An increased role for CCS
3. The next 20 years: Picking up the pace
http://www.iea.org/topics/ccs/
© OECD/IEA 2016
IEA: CCS is not “on track”
CCS has moved forward – but is far from being consistent with a 2°C pathway• If all projects known today were to proceed, the maximum capture rate
would be less than 70 MtCO2
Capture potential of the project pipeline, by sector. Data source: GCCSI
© OECD/IEA 2016
IEA: Will Paris provide needed momentum?
CCS mentioned in only 10 NDCs 2030 timeframe Perception that CCS is a future technology
Parties invited to submit mid‐century climate strategies by 2020
Mission Innovation 23 members; $30 billion/year by 2021 “Carbon Capture Innovation Challenge”
© OECD/IEA 2016
IEA: Accelerating future progress
Stable policies, including financial support, are urgently needed. CO2 storage development critical New approaches and a re‐focusing of efforts can also promote faster
deployment: Greater emphasis on CCS retrofitting Cultivating early opportunities for BECCS Developing markets for “clean products” Moving from conventional enhanced oil recovery (EOR) practices to “EOR+” for
verifiable CO2 storage Disaggregating the CCS value chain to enable new business models to emerge
“Deployment of CCS will not be optional in implementing the Paris Agreement”
Dr Fatih Birol, Executive Director, International Energy Agency
Thank You
Any questions?
www.ieaghg.org
