29
REVIEWING THE QUARTER ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2019 CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW January 2020

CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    13

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

REVIEWING THE QUARTER ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2019

CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEWJanuary 2020

Page 2: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

SUMMARY

2

ECONOMIC ReviewGross Domestic Product 3Employment 4 Construction and Manufacturing 5Inflation 6Housing Market 7Consumer Confidence 8

Capital Markets ReviewBroad Asset Class Returns 9Domestic Returns 10 Fixed Income Returns 11 International Equity Returns 12S&P Equity Sector Returns 13 US Treasuries 14Fixed Income Yields 15Global Sovereign Debt Yields 16Foreign Exchange Rates 17Commodity Prices 18

Quarterly TopicsThe Senate 19The House 20Presidential Election 21Caught in the Vortex 22Price to Earnings Multiple Explained 232020 Year-End Outlook 24

Page 3: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

ECONOMIC REVIEW | GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

3

Contribution to % Change in Real GDP Quarterly Change in Real GDP

Page 4: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

ECONOMIC REVIEW | EMPLOYMENT

4

Civilian Unemployment Rate Non-Farm Payroll and Factory Orders

Page 5: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

ECONOMIC REVIEW | MAJOR INDUSTRY CONTRIBUTIONS TO JOB GROWTH

5

Construction and Manufacturing

Page 6: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

ECONOMIC REVIEW | INFLATION

6

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)

(YoY Change)

PCE Target

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Weight (Left) YoY Change (Right)

Components of PCE

Page 7: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

ECONOMIC REVIEW | HOUSING MARKET

7

National Home Price Index (YoY Change) New and Existing Home Sales

Page 8: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

ECONOMIC REVIEW | CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

8

Consumer Confidence Retail Sales

Page 9: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

CAPITAL MARKETS | BROAD ASSET CLASS RETURNS

9

Blended Portfolio Allocation: 45% US Equity / 15% Non-US Equity / 40% Fixed Income

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Non-Us

EquitiesReal Estate Fixed Income

Non-Us

EquitiesUS Equities Real Estate US Equities Real Estate

Non-Us

Equities

Cash & Cash

AlternativesUS Equities

34.4% 40.4% 7.8% 17.0% 32.4% 14.3% 1.4% 15.3% 24.8% 1.8% 31.5%

US Equities CommoditiesBlended

PortfolioUS Equities

Non-Us

EquitiesUS Equities Fixed Income US Equities US Equities Fixed Income

Non-Us

Equities

26.5% 16.7% 2.3% 16.0% 21.6% 13.7% 0.5% 12.0% 21.8% 0.0% 23.2%

Real Estate US Equities US EquitiesBlended

Portfolio

Blended

Portfolio

Blended

Portfolio

Blended

PortfolioCommodities

Blended

Portfolio

Blended

Portfolio

Blended

Portfolio

22.1% 15.1% 2.1% 11.4% 17.0% 8.0% 0.5% 11.4% 15.0% -4.0% 21.1%

Blended

Portfolio

Blended

Portfolio

Cash & Cash

AlternativesFixed Income

Cash & Cash

AlternativesFixed Income

Cash & Cash

Alternatives

Blended

PortfolioFixed Income US Equities Real Estate

19.4% 10.8% 0.1% 4.2% 0.0% 6.0% 0.0% 6.9% 3.5% -4.4% 19.5%

CommoditiesNon-Us

EquitiesReal Estate Real Estate Fixed Income

Cash & Cash

Alternatives

Non-Us

Equities

Non-Us

Equities

Cash & Cash

AlternativesReal Estate Fixed Income

18.7% 9.4% -2.2% 0.6% -2.0% 0.0% -2.6% 3.3% 0.8% -7.6% 8.7%

Fixed Income Fixed IncomeNon-Us

Equities

Cash & Cash

AlternativesCommodities

Non-Us

EquitiesReal Estate Fixed Income Commodities Commodities Commodities

5.9% 6.5% -11.8% 0.1% -9.6% -3.9% -24.2% 2.6% 0.7% -13.0% 5.4%

Cash & Cash

Alternatives

Cash & Cash

AlternativesCommodities Commodities Real Estate Commodities Commodities

Cash & Cash

AlternativesReal Estate

Non-Us

Equities

Cash & Cash

Alternatives

0.1% 0.1% -13.4% -1.1% -25.8% -17.0% -24.7% 0.3% -0.2% -13.6% 2.2%

Page 10: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

CAPITAL MARKETS | DOMESTIC EQUITY RETURNS

Capital Markets

10

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mid Growth Mid Growth Large Growth Mid Value Small Growth Large Growth Large Growth Small Value Large Growth Large Growth Large Value

41.1% 30.6% 4.7% 18.5% 42.7% 14.9% 5.5% 31.3% 27.4% 0.0% 31.9%

Mid Blend Small Growth Small Growth Small Value Small Blend Large Blend Small Growth Small Blend Large Blend Small Growth Large Blend

37.4% 28.0% 3.6% 18.2% 41.3% 13.7% 2.8% 26.6% 21.8% -4.1% 31.5%

Mid Value Mid Blend Large Blend Mid Blend Small Value Large Value Mid Growth Mid Value Mid Growth Large Blend Large Growth

33.7% 26.6% 2.1% 17.9% 40.0% 12.4% 2.0% 26.5% 19.9% -4.4% 31.1%

Large Growth Small Blend Small Blend Large Value Mid Value Mid Value Large Blend Small Growth Mid Blend Small Blend Mid Growth

31.6% 26.3% 1.0% 17.7% 34.3% 12.1% 1.4% 22.2% 16.2% -8.5% 26.3%

Small Growth Small Value Large Value Mid Growth Mid Blend Mid Blend Small Blend Mid Blend Large Value Large Value Mid Blend

28.4% 24.7% -0.5% 17.3% 33.5% 9.8% -2.0% 20.7% 15.4% -9.0% 26.2%

Large Blend Mid Value Mid Growth Small Blend Mid Growth Mid Growth Mid Blend Large Value Small Growth Mid Growth Mid Value

26.5% 22.8% -0.9% 16.3% 32.8% 7.6% -2.2% 17.4% 14.8% -10.3% 26.1%

Small Blend Large Value Small Value Large Blend Large Growth Small Value Large Value Mid Growth Small Blend Mid Blend Small Value

25.6% 15.1% -1.4% 16.0% 32.8% 7.5% -3.1% 14.8% 13.2% -11.1% 24.5%

Small Value Large Blend Mid Blend Large Growth Large Blend Small Blend Mid Value Large Blend Mid Value Mid Value Small Blend

22.8% 15.1% -1.7% 14.6% 32.4% 5.8% -6.7% 12.0% 12.3% -11.9% 22.8%

Large Value Large Growth Mid Value Small Growth Large Value Small Growth Small Value Large Growth Small Value Small Value Small Growth

21.2% 15.1% -2.4% 14.6% 32.0% 3.9% -6.7% 6.9% 11.5% -12.6% 21.1%

Page 11: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

CAPITAL MARKETS | FIXED INCOME RETURNS

11

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

High Yield High YieldLong-Term

Bond

Emerging

Market BondHigh Yield

Long-Term

BondMunicipal High Yield

Long-Term

BondT-Bill

Long-Term

Bond

58.2% 15.1% 17.1% 17.9% 7.4% 16.4% 3.3% 17.1% 12.2% 1.8% 21.9%

Emerging

Market Bond

Emerging

Market BondMunicipal High Yield Agency Municipal Agency

Long-Term

Bond

Emerging

Market Bond

Short-Term

BondCredit

34.2% 12.8% 10.7% 15.8% 1.0% 9.1% 1.8% 10.2% 8.2% 1.4% 12.6%

Long-Term

Bond

Long-Term

BondTreasury

Long-Term

Bond

Short-Term

BondCredit MBS

Emerging

Market Bond

Global Bond ex

USMunicipal High Yield

16.8% 10.7% 9.8% 12.7% 0.3% 7.5% 1.5% 9.9% 8.0% 1.3% 11.4%

Credit Credit Credit Credit T-Bill MBSEmerging

Market BondCredit High Yield Agency

Emerging

Market Bond

16.0% 8.5% 8.4% 9.4% 0.0% 6.1% 1.3% 5.6% 7.5% 1.1% 10.8%

MunicipalGlobal Bond ex

US

Aggregate

BondMunicipal US TIPS

Aggregate

BondTreasury

Aggregate

BondCredit MBS

Aggregate

Bond

12.9% 8.4% 7.8% 6.8% -0.9% 6.0% 0.8% 2.6% 6.2% 1.0% 8.5%

US TIPSAggregate

Bond

Emerging

Market Bond

Aggregate

BondMBS Treasury

Aggregate

BondAgency Municipal Treasury Treasury

9.8% 6.5% 7.0% 4.2% -1.5% 5.1% 0.5% 2.6% 5.4% 0.9% 7.7%

Aggregate

BondTreasury MBS MBS Credit

Emerging

Market Bond

Short-Term

BondUS TIPS

Aggregate

BondUS TIPS Municipal

5.9% 5.9% 6.3% 2.6% -2.0% 4.8% 0.4% 2.5% 3.5% 0.7% 6.7%

MBS MBSGlobal Bond ex

USTreasury

Aggregate

BondHigh Yield T-Bill

Global Bond ex

USAgency

Aggregate

BondMBS

5.8% 5.4% 6.1% 2.0% -2.0% 2.5% 0.0% 2.2% 2.9% 0.0% 5.6%

Global Bond ex

USUS TIPS High Yield US TIPS Municipal Agency US TIPS MBS MBS

Global Bond ex

US

Global Bond ex

US

3.1% 2.7% 5.0% 1.7% -2.6% 1.0% -0.4% 1.7% 2.5% -0.3% 5.2%

Short-Term

BondMunicipal US TIPS Agency Treasury

Short-Term

BondCredit Treasury Treasury High Yield US TIPS

1.3% 2.4% 2.6% 1.0% -2.7% 0.7% -0.8% 1.0% 2.3% -2.1% 3.3%

AgencyShort-Term

Bond

Short-Term

Bond

Short-Term

Bond

Emerging

Market BondT-Bill

Global Bond ex

US

Short-Term

BondT-Bill Credit

Short-Term

Bond

1.0% 2.4% 1.5% 0.3% -4.1% 0.0% -3.6% 0.6% 0.8% -2.1% 2.9%

T-Bill Agency Agency T-BillLong-Term

BondUS TIPS High Yield T-Bill US TIPS

Emerging

Market BondT-Bill

0.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.1% -6.6% -1.4% -4.5% 0.3% 0.4% -2.5% 1.8%

Treasury T-Bill T-BillGlobal Bond ex

US

Global Bond ex

US

Global Bond ex

US

Long-Term

BondMunicipal

Short-Term

Bond

Long-Term

BondAgency

-3.6% 0.1% 0.1% -0.6% -7.1% -3.5% -4.6% 0.2% 0.3% -6.8% 1.0%

Page 12: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

CAPITAL MARKETS | INTERNATIONAL EQUITY RETURNS

12

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

EM Latin

AmericaEM Asia US Large Cap

Pacific ex

JapanUS Large Cap US Large Cap Japan

EM Eastern

EuropeEM Asia

EM Eastern

Europe

EM Eastern

Europe

104.2% 19.4% 2.1% 24.7% 32.4% 13.7% 9.9% 38.8% 43.3% -3.4% 35.6%

EM Eastern

Europe

Emerging

Markets

United

KingdomEM Asia Europe ex UK EM Asia US Large Cap

EM Latin

America

Emerging

MarketsUS Large Cap US Large Cap

84.3% 19.2% -2.5% 21.2% 28.7% 5.3% 1.4% 31.5% 37.8% -4.4% 31.5%

Emerging

Markets

Pacific ex

Japan

Developed

MarketsEurope ex UK Japan

Pacific ex

JapanEurope ex UK US Large Cap Europe ex UK

EM Latin

AmericaEurope ex UK

79.0% 17.1% -11.7% 22.5% 27.3% -0.3% 0.1% 12.0% 27.8% -6.2% 25.9%

Pacific ex

Japan

EM Eastern

Europe

Pacific ex

Japan

EM Eastern

Europe

Developed

Markets

Emerging

Markets

Developed

Markets

Emerging

Markets

Pacific ex

Japan

Pacific ex

Japan

Developed

Markets

73.0% 16.3% -12.7% 18.7% 23.3% -1.8% -0.4% 11.6% 26.0% -10.2% 22.7%

EM Asia Japan JapanEmerging

Markets

United

KingdomJapan

EM Eastern

Europe

Pacific ex

Japan

Developed

MarketsJapan

United

Kingdom

72.5% 15.6% -14.2% 18.6% 20.7% -3.7% -4.0% 8.0% 25.6% -12.6% 21.1%

United

KingdomUS Large Cap Europe ex UK

Developed

Markets

Pacific ex

Japan

Developed

Markets

United

KingdomEM Asia Japan

Developed

MarketsJapan

43.4% 15.1% -14.5% 17.9% 5.6% -4.5% -7.5% 6.5% 24.4% -13.4% 20.1%

Europe ex UKEM Latin

AmericaEM Asia US Large Cap EM Asia

United

Kingdom

Pacific ex

JapanJapan

EM Latin

America

United

KingdomEM Asia

33.9% 14.9% -17.2% 16.0% 2.3% -5.4% -8.4% 2.7% 24.2% -14.1% 19.7%

Developed

Markets

United

Kingdom

Emerging

Markets

United

Kingdom

EM Eastern

EuropeEurope ex UK EM Asia

Developed

Markets

United

Kingdom

Emerging

Markets

Emerging

Markets

32.5% 8.8% -18.2% 15.3% 1.4% -5.8% -9.5% 1.5% 22.4% -14.2% 18.9%

US Large CapDeveloped

Markets

EM Latin

America

EM Latin

America

Emerging

Markets

EM Latin

America

Emerging

MarketsEurope ex UK US Large Cap Europe ex UK

Pacific ex

Japan

26.5% 8.2% -19.1% 8.9% -2.3% -12.0% -14.6% 0.3% 21.8% -14.4% 18.5%

Japan Europe ex UKEM Eastern

EuropeJapan

EM Latin

America

EM Eastern

Europe

EM Latin

America

United

Kingdom

EM Eastern

EuropeEM Asia

EM Latin

America

6.4% 2.4% -21.3% 8.4% -13.2% -37.1% -30.8% 0.0% 18.1% -15.2% 17.9%

Page 13: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

CAPITAL MARKETS | S&P EQUITY SECTOR RETURNS

13

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Information

TechnologyReal Estate Utilities Financials

Consumer

DiscretionaryReal Estate

Consumer

DiscretionaryEnergy

Information

TechnologyHealth Care

Information

Technology

61.7% 32.3% 20.0% 28.8% 43.1% 30.2% 10.1% 27.4% 38.8% 6.5% 50.3%

MaterialsConsumer

Discretionary

Consumer

Staples

Consumer

DiscretionaryHealth Care Utilities Health Care Comm Services Materials Utilities Comm Services

48.6% 27.7% 14.0% 23.9% 41.5% 29.0% 6.9% 23.5% 23.8% 4.1% 32.7%

Consumer

DiscretionaryIndustrials Health Care Real Estate Industrials Health Care

Consumer

StaplesFinancials

Consumer

Discretionary

Consumer

DiscretionaryFinancials

41.3% 26.7% 12.7% 19.7% 40.7% 25.3% 6.6% 22.8% 23.0% 0.8% 32.1%

Real Estate Materials Real Estate Comm Services FinancialsInformation

Technology

Information

TechnologyIndustrials Financials

Information

TechnologyS&P 500

27.1% 22.2% 11.4% 18.3% 35.6% 20.1% 5.9% 18.9% 22.2% -0.3% 31.5%

S&P 500 Energy Comm Services Health Care S&P 500Consumer

StaplesReal Estate Materials Health Care Real Estate Industrials

26.5% 20.5% 6.3% 17.9% 32.4% 16.0% 4.7% 16.7% 22.1% -2.2% 29.4%

Industrials Comm ServicesConsumer

DiscretionaryS&P 500

Information

TechnologyFinancials Comm Services Utilities S&P 500 S&P 500 Real Estate

20.9% 19.0% 6.1% 16.0% 28.4% 15.2% 3.4% 16.3% 21.8% -4.4% 29.0%

Health Care S&P 500 Energy IndustrialsConsumer

StaplesS&P 500 S&P 500

Information

TechnologyIndustrials

Consumer

Staples

Consumer

Discretionary

19.7% 15.1% 4.7% 15.3% 26.1% 13.7% 1.4% 13.8% 21.0% -8.4% 27.9%

FinancialsConsumer

Staples

Information

TechnologyMaterials Materials Industrials Financials S&P 500

Consumer

StaplesComm Services

Consumer

Staples

17.2% 14.1% 2.4% 15.0% 25.6% 9.8% -1.5% 12.0% 13.5% -12.5% 27.6%

Consumer

StaplesFinancials S&P 500

Information

TechnologyEnergy

Consumer

DiscretionaryIndustrials

Consumer

DiscretionaryUtilities Financials Utilities

14.9% 12.1% 2.1% 14.8% 25.1% 9.7% -2.5% 6.0% 12.1% -13.0% 26.3%

EnergyInformation

TechnologyIndustrials

Consumer

StaplesUtilities Materials Utilities

Consumer

StaplesReal Estate Industrials Materials

13.8% 10.2% -0.6% 10.8% 13.2% 6.9% -4.8% 5.4% 10.8% -13.3% 24.6%

Utilities Utilities Materials Energy Comm Services Comm Services Materials Real Estate Energy Materials Health Care

11.9% 5.5% -9.8% 4.6% 11.5% 3.0% -8.4% 3.4% -1.0% -14.7% 20.8%

Comm Services Health Care Financials Utilities Real Estate Energy Energy Health Care Comm Services Energy Energy

8.9% 2.9% -17.1% 1.3% 1.6% -7.8% -21.1% -2.7% -1.3% -18.1% 11.8%

Page 14: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

CAPITAL MARKETS | US TREASURIES

14

US Yield Curve US 10-Year / US 2-Year Yield Curve

Page 15: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

CAPITAL MARKETS | FIXED INCOME YIELDS

15

US Yield-to-Worst

Year End 10-Year

Treasury Yield Target

1.75%

Dollar Value of Global

Negative-Yielding Debt

$11.5 Trillion

Record Low Inflation

Expectations

2.2%?

Page 16: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

CAPITAL MARKETS | GLOBAL SOVEREIGN DEBT YIELDS

16

10-year Sovereign Debt Yields

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Sw

itze

rlan

d

Ge

rma

ny

Den

ma

rk

Jap

an

Be

lgiu

m

Ire

lan

d

Fra

nce

Sw

ed

en

Po

rtug

al

Sp

ain

Unite

d K

ing

do

m

Au

str

alia

Italy

Gre

ece

Norw

ay

Can

ad

a

Unite

d S

tate

s

This chart illustrates the highest and

lowest monthly yields over the past

30 years as well as the current yield,

represented by ♦.

Page 17: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

CAPITAL MARKETS | FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES

17

US Dollar

Page 18: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

CAPITAL MARKETS | COMMODITY PRICES

Capital Markets

18

WTI Price Gold Price

Page 19: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

QUARTERLY TOPICS | THE SENATE

Capital Markets

19

Page 20: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

QUARTERLY TOPICS | THE HOUSE

Capital Markets

20

Page 21: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

QUARTERLY TOPICS | PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Capital Markets

21

Page 22: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

QUARTERLY TOPICS | CAUGHT IN THE VORTEX

Capital Markets

22

Page 23: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

QUARTERLY TOPICS | PRICE TO EARNINGS MULTIPLE EXPLAINED

Capital Markets

23

Page 24: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

QUARTERLY TOPICS | 2020 YEAR-END OUTLOOK

Capital Markets

24

Page 25: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

25

ASSET CLASS BENCHMARK ASSET CLASS BENCHMARK

Cash & Cash Alternatives Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury - Bills (1-3 M) Small Blend S&P Small Cap 600

Fixed Income Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Small Growth S&P Small Cap 600 Growth

US Equities S&P 500 (TR) US Large Cap S&P 500

World Equities MSCI World ex USA EM Eastern Europe MSCI EM Eastern Europe

Commodities Bloomberg Commodity Index Europe ex UK MSCI Europe ex UK

Real Estate FTSE EPRA/NAREIT United States Developed Markets MSCI EAFE

Materials S&P 500 (TR) / Materials - SEC United Kingdom MSCI United Kingdom

Industrials S&P 500 (TR) / Industrials - SEC Japan MSCI Japan

Comm Services S&P 500 (TR) / Communication Services -SEC EM Latin America MSCI EM Latin America

Utilities S&P 500 (TR) / Utilities - SEC Emerging Markets MSCI EM (Emerging Markets)

Consumer Discretionary S&P 500 (TR) / Consumer Discretionary - SEC EM Asia MSCI EM Asia

Consumer Staples S&P 500 (TR) / Consumer Staples - SEC Pacific ex Japan MSCI Pacific ex JP

Health Care S&P 500 (TR) / Health Care - SEC Long-Term Bond Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Credit - Long

Information Technology S&P 500 (TR) / Information Technology - SEC High Yield Bloomberg Barclays US High Yield - Corporate

Energy S&P 500 (TR) / Energy - SEC Aggregate Bond Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate

Financials S&P 500 (TR) / Financials - SEC Credit Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Credit

Real Estate S&P 500 (TR) / Real Estate - IG Emerging Market Bond Bloomberg Barclays Emerging Markets USD Aggregate

S&P 500 S&P 500 (TR) Treasury Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Government - Treasury

Large Value S&P 500 Value Municipal Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond

Large Blend S&P 500 Agency Bloomberg Barclays US Agency CMBS

Large Growth S&P 500 Growth MBS Bloomberg Barclays MBS 1000

Mid Value S&P Mid Cap 400 Value Global Bond ex US Bloomberg Barclays Global G6 (G7 x US)

Mid Blend S&P Mid Cap 400 US TIPS Bloomberg Barclays US TIPS (1-3 Y)

Mid Growth S&P Mid Cap 400 Growth Short-Term Bond Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury Bellwethers (2 Y)

Small Value S&P Small Cap 600 Value T-Bill Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury - Bills (1-3 M)

Page 26: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

26

DISCLOSURES

INTERNATIONAL INVESTING | International investing involves additional risks such as currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic instability.These risks are greater in emerging markets.

SECTORS | Sector investments are companies engaged in business related to a specific economic sector and are presented herein for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered as thesole basis for an investment decision. Sectors are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated withinvesting in an individual sector, including limited diversification.

OIL | Investing in oil involves special risks, including the potential adverse effects of state and federal regulation and may not be suitable for all investors.

CURRENCIES | Currencies investing are generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Their markets are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp pricefluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising.

GOLD | Gold is subject to the special risks associated with investing in precious metals, including but not limited to: price may be subject to wide fluctuation; the market is relatively limited; thesources are concentrated in countries that have the potential for instability; and the market is unregulated.

FIXED INCOME | Fixed-income securities (or “bonds”) are exposed to various risks including but not limited to credit (risk of default of principal and interest payments), market and liquidity, interestrate, reinvestment, legislative (changes to the tax code), and call risks. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and fixed income prices. Generally, when interest rates rise,fixed income prices fall and when interest rates fall, fixed income prices generally rise.

US TREASURIES | US Treasury securities are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, generally offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value.

DESIGNATIONSCertified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. owns the certification marks CFP® and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ in the U.S.

Investments & Wealth InstituteTM (The Institute) is the owner of the certification marks “CIMA” and “Certified Investment Management Analyst.” Use of CIMA and/or Certified Investment ManagementAnalyst signifies that the user has successfully completed The Institute's initial and ongoing credentialing requirements for investment management professionals.

DATA SOURCES

FactSet and Bloomberg.

DOMESTIC EQUITY DEFINITION

LARGE GROWTH | Russell 1000 Growth Total Return Index: This index represents a segment of the Russell 1000 Index with a greater-than-average growth orientation. Companies in this index havehigher price-to-book and price-earnings ratios, lower dividend yields and higher forecasted growth values. This index includes the effects of reinvested dividends.

SMALL GROWTH | Russell 2000 Growth Total Return Index: This index represents a segment of the Russell 2000 Index with a greater-than-average growth orientation. The combined marketcapitalization of the Russell 2000 Growth and Value Indices will add up to the total market cap of the Russell 2000.

LARGE BLEND | Russell 1000 Total Return Index: This index represents the 1000 largest companies in the Russell 3000 Index. This index is highly correlated with the S&P 500 Index. This index includesthe effects of reinvested dividends.

SMALL BLEND | Russell 2000 Total Return Index: This index covers 2000 of the smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which ranks the 3000 largest US companies by market capitalization. TheRussell 2000 represents approximately 10% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. This index includes the effects of reinvested dividends.

LARGE VALUE | Russell 1000 Value Total Return Index: This index represents a segment of the Russell 1000 Index with a less-than-average growth orientation. Companies in this index have low price-to-book and price-earnings ratios, higher dividend yields and lower forecasted growth values. This index includes the effects of reinvested dividends.

SMALL VALUE | Russell 2000 Value Total Return Index: This index represents a segment of the Russell 2000 Index with a less-than-average growth orientation. The combined market capitalization ofthe Russell 2000 Growth and Value Indices will add up to the total market cap of the Russell 2000. This index includes the effects of reinvested dividends

Page 27: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

27

FIXED INCOME DEFINITION

AGGREGATE BOND | Bloomberg Barclays US Agg Bond Total Return Index: The index is a measure of the investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable bond market of roughly 6,000 SEC-registered securitieswith intermediate maturities averaging approximately 10 years. The index includes bonds from the Treasury, Government-Related, Corporate, MBS, ABS, and CMBS sectors.

MUNICIPAL | Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Total Return Index: The index is a measure of the long-term tax-exempt bond market with securities of investment grade (rated at least Baa by Moody’sInvestors Service and BBB by Standard and Poor’s). This index has four main sectors: state and local general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds, and prerefunded bonds.

US INDEXES AND EQUITY SECTORS DEFINITION

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE (DJIA) | The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is an index that tracks 30 large, publicly-owned companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) andthe NASDAQ.

S&P 500 | The S&P 500 Total Return Index: The index is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities. There is over USD 7.8 trillion benchmarked to the index, with index assetscomprising approximately USD 2.2 trillion of this total. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

INTERNATIONAL EQUITY DEFINITION

EMERGING MARKETS EASTERN EUROPE | MSCI EM Eastern Europe Net Return Index: The index captures large- and mid-cap representation across four Emerging Markets (EM) countries in EasternEurope. With 50 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

BLOOMBERG BARCLAYS CAPITAL AGGREGATE BOND TOTAL RETURN INDEX | This index represents securities that are SEC-registered, taxable, and dollar denominated. The index covers the U.S.investment grade fixed rate bond market, with index components for government and corporate securities, mortgage pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities. The index is designed tominimize concentration in any one commodity or sector. It currently has 22 commodity futures in seven sectors. No one commodity can compose less than 2% or more than 15% of the index, and nosector can represent more than 33% of the index (as of the annual weightings of the components).

EMERGING MARKETS ASIA | MSCI EM Asia Net Return Index: The index captures large- and mid-cap representation across eight Emerging Markets countries. With 554 constituents, the index coversapproximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

EMERGING MARKETS LATIN AMERICA | MSCI EM Latin America Net Return Index: The index captures large- and mid-cap representation across five Emerging Markets (EM) countries in Latin America.With 116 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

EMERGING MARKETS | MSCI Emerging Markets Net Return Index: This index consists of 23 countries representing 10% of world market capitalization. The index is available for a number of regions,market segments/sizes and covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each of the 23 countries.

PACIFIC EX-JAPAN | MSCI Pacific Ex Japan Net Return Index: The index captures large- and mid-cap representation across four of 5 Developed Markets (DM) countries in the Pacific region (excludingJapan). With 150 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

JAPAN | MSCI Japan Net Return Index: The index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Japanese market. With 319 constituents, the index coversapproximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Japan.

FOREIGN DEVELOPED MARKETS | MSCI EAFE Net Return Index: This index is designed to represent the performance of large and mid-cap securities across 21 developed markets, including countriesin Europe, Australasia and the Far East, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The index is available for a number of regions, market segments/sizes and covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjustedmarket capitalization in each of the 21 countries.

EUROPE EX UK | MSCI Europe Ex UK Net Return Index: The index captures large and mid cap representation across 14 Developed Markets (DM) countries in Europe. With 337 constituents, the indexcovers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization across European Developed Markets excluding the UK.

MSCI EAFE | The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding theUnited States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations.

Page 28: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

Capital Markets Review | QuarterlyJanuary 2020

28

COMMODITY DEFINITIONS

US DOLLAR INDEX | The US dollar index (USDX) is a measure of the value of the US dollar relative to the value of a basket of currencies of the majority of the US's most significant trading partners.This index is similar to other trade-weighted indexes, which also use the exchange rates from the same major currencies.

BLOOMBERG BARCLAYS COMMODITY INDEX | Bloomberg Barclays Commodity Index is a commodity group sub index of the Bloomberg CITR. The index is composed of futures contracts on crude oil,heating oil, unleaded gasoline and natural gas. It reflects the return on fully collateralized futures positions and is quoted in USD.

BLOOMBERG INDUSTRIAL METALS INDEX | Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index is composed of futures contracts on aluminum, copper, nickel and zinc. It reflects the return of underlying commodityfutures price movements only. It is quoted in USD.

BLOOMBERG SOFTS INDEX | Bloomberg Softs Index is a commodity group sub index of the Bloomberg CI. It is composed of futures contracts on coffee, cotton and sugar. It reflects the return ofunderlying commodity futures price movements only and is quoted in USD.

BLOOMBERG PRECIOUS METALS INDEX | Bloomberg Precious Metals index is a commodity group sub index of the Bloomberg CI. It is composed of futures contracts on gold and silver. It reflects thereturn of underlying commodity futures price movements only and is quoted in USD.

BLOOMBERG GRAINS INDEX | Bloomberg Grains Index is a commodity group subindex of the Bloomberg CI. It is composed of futures contracts on corn, soybeans and wheat. It reflects the return ofunderlying commodity futures price movements only and is quoted in USD.

INTERNATIONAL DISCLOSURES

FOR CLIENTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM | For clients of Raymond James Financial International Limited (RJFI): This document and any investment to which this document relates is intended for thesole use of the persons to whom it is addressed, being persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients as described in the FCA rules or persons described in Articles 19(5) (Investmentprofessionals) or 49(2) (high net worth companies, unincorporated associations, etc.) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended)or any otherperson to whom this promotion may lawfully be directed. It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and may not be relied upon by suchpersons and is, therefore, not intended for private individuals or those who would be classified as Retail Clients. FOR CLIENTS OF RAYMOND JAMES INVESTMENT SERVICES, LTD.: This document is forthe use of professional investment advisers and managers and is not intended for use by clients. FOR CLIENTS IN FRANCE | This document and any investment to which this document relates isintended for the sole use of the persons to whom it is addressed, being persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients as described in "Code Monetaire et Financier" and ReglementGeneral de l'Autorite des marches Financiers. It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and may not be relied upon by such persons and is,therefore, not intended for private individuals or those who would be classified as Retail Clients. FOR CLIENTS OF RAYMOND JAMES EURO EQUITIES | Raymond James Euro Equities is authorised andregulated by the Autorite de Controle Prudentiel et de Resolution and the Autorite des Marches Financiers. FOR INSTITUTIONAL CLIENTS IN THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AREA (EE) OUTSIDE OF THEUNITED KINGDOM | This document (and any attachments or exhibits hereto) is intended only for EEA institutional clients or others to whom it may lawfully be submitted. FOR CANADIAN CLIENTS | Thisdocument is not prepared subject to Canadian disclosure requirements, unless a Canadian has contributed to the content of the document. In the case where there is Canadian contribution, thedocument meets all applicable IIROC disclosure requirements.

DATA SOURCE:

FactSet

Page 29: CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW - Raymond JamesCONTRIBUTIONS TO % CHANGE IN REAL GDP 4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/2019 Economic Review The decline in real GDP in the second quarter reflected

INTERNATIONAL HEADQUARTERS: THE RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL CENTER

880 CARILLON PARKWAY // ST. PETERSBURG, FL 33716 // 800.248.8863

RAYMONDJAMES.COM

Investment products are: not deposits, not FDIC/NCUA insured, not insured by any government agency, not bank guaranteed, subject to risk and may lose value.

© 2020 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. © 2020 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC.

Raymond James® is a registered trademark of Raymond James Financial, Inc.