Can We Quantify the Risk Can We Quantify the Risk Principle?Principle?

Kimberly Gentry Sperber, Ph.D.

Today’s SessionToday’s Session

• Review of the risk principle• Discussion of ways to operationalize the

risk principle• What does the research say about

operationalizing the risk principle into practice?

• What counts as dosage?• Findings from Talbert House dosage

study• Questions unanswered

The Risk PrincipleThe Risk Principle

• Identify those offenders with higher probability of re-offending

• Target those offenders with higher probability of re-offending

• Targeting lower risk offenders can increase recidivism

• Referred to as the WHO principle

2002 UC Study of Halfway 2002 UC Study of Halfway Houses and CBCFsHouses and CBCFs

Findings on the Risk Principle

Increased Recidivism

Reduced Recidivism

Treatment Effects For High Risk Offenders

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2010 UC Study of Halfway 2010 UC Study of Halfway Houses and CBCFsHouses and CBCFs

Findings on the Risk Principle

Treatment Effects for Low RiskTreatment Effects for Low Risk

Treatment Effects for High RiskTreatment Effects for High Risk

GeneralizabilityGeneralizability

• To whom does the risk principle apply?– Adults– Juveniles– Males– Females– Sex Offenders– Violent Offenders

Operationalizing the Risk Operationalizing the Risk PrinciplePrinciple

• Separate living quarters• Separate groups• Risk-specific caseloads• Varying dosage by risk• Varying length of stay by risk

What Does the Research Say?What Does the Research Say?

• Lipsey (1999)– Meta-analysis of 200 studies on

serious juvenile delinquents– Minimum length of stay of 6 months– Approximately 100 hours

What Does the Research Say?What Does the Research Say?

• Bourgon and Armstrong (2005)– 620 incarcerated males– 12 months recidivism rates– 100 hours to reduce recidivism for

moderate risk OR few needs• 100 hours not enough for high risk

– 200 hours for high risk OR multiple needs

– 300+ hours for high risk AND multiple needs

Talbert House Dosage StudyTalbert House Dosage Study

• Conceptual understanding of the risk principle versus operationalization of the risk principle in real world setting to achieve maximum outcome

• “Can we quantify how much more service to provide high risk offenders?”

Talbert House Dosage StudyTalbert House Dosage Study

• Implemented new dosage protocol at CBCF to better align risk/need and treatment dosage– Implementation began 1/08

• Minimum hours dictated by risk level (LSI-R)

• Maximum hours dictated by individual criminogenic needs

The ProgramThe Program

• 100-bed CBCF for adult male felons

• Prison diversion program• Average length of stay = 4 months• Serves 3 rural counties• Cognitive-behavioral treatment

modality

Community Correctional Center Risk Level Structure Guide

MediumHigh High Medium Low/ Moderate Low

LSI Score Range 34+ 31-33 24-30 19-23 0-18Length of Stay Target (days) 147 133 119 105 60

Corrective Thinking 200 180 132 92 52AOD 62 54 46 38 28Individualized Relapse Prevention 21Anger Management 24 24 24 24 if neededDomestic Violence 24 15 15 15 if neededVocational* 15 15 15 15 8Life Skills* 16 16 16 16 8Personal Development* 10 10 10 10 if needed

*not counted in dosage total

Total hours available: 351 314 258 210 117

MethodologyMethodology

• Sample size = 689 clients• Clients successfully discharged between

8/30/06 and 8/30/09– 300 clients pre-implementation– 123 clients during implementation– 266 clients post-implementation

• Excluded sex offenders• Dosage defined as number of group hours per

client• Multiple measures of recidivism – arrest,

conviction, reincarceration– All offenders out of program minimum of 12 months

Sample CharacteristicsSample Characteristics

• 88.8% White• Average age 33• 59.7% single, never married• 43.2% less than high school education• 95.5% Felony 3 or higher

– Almost half Felony 5

• 80% moderate risk or higher• 88% have probability of substance

abuse per SASSI

low moderate high overall0-99 Tx hours 39 52 46

100-199 Tx hours 26 45 81 43200+ Tx hours 43 57 48

Recidivism Rates by Treatment Intensity and Risk Levels

Average low=78, Moderate= 155 High =241

What Counts as Dosage?What Counts as Dosage?

• Activities/techniques based on evidence-based approaches– CBT, Structured Social Learning

AND

• Activities/techniques targeting criminogenic needs

Unanswered QuestionsUnanswered Questions

• Is there a saturation effect?– What is maximum return on

investment?• What counts as dosage?• Does dosage requirement vary by

setting?– Halfway house versus CBCF

• What is the impact of sequencing of dosage?