CAMS ASSEMBLY 2017 Flemming - Copernicus...Atmosphere Monitoring Atmospheric0 Composition0in0the0IFS ECMWF’s0Integrated0Forecasting0System0(IFS) NWP0model0 Dynamic,0physics,0 transport

AtmosphereMonitoring

Johannes Flemming, Zak Kipling, Vincent Huijnen, Samuel Remy, Anna Agusti-‐Panareda, CAMS development section at ECMWF, CAMS 42 and CAMS 43 development teams

(Global) CAMS systemcurrent and upcoming (and past)versions modelling aspects


A t m o s p h e r i c C o m p o s i t i o n i n t h e I F S

ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System (IFS)

NWP model Dynamic, physics,

transport


T h e w a y f o r w a r d …

• Improved integration of aerosol and chemistry scheme (and also GHG…)– formation of secondary aerosols (Nitrate, Sulphate)– Aerosol modulation of chemical process (heterogeneous reaction, photolysis attenuation)

• Wet and dry deposition fluxes as new CAMS products (total N, Fe in DD) – On-‐line calculation of fluxes– Diagnostics and evaluation required

• Attribution of fluxes and emissions – Tagged tracers– Flux estimation

• Link to NWP – Tracer in Radiation – Link to land surface scheme (Land use, vegetation)

• Resolution upgrades– Better representation of surface fluxes– Update to 137 Level (model at top at 80 km)

• Improvement of computational performance overall flexibility– Single precision experimentation– Performance analysis and optimization


C o m p u t a t i o n a l c o s t o f i n c l u d i n g A t m o s p h e r i c C o m p o s i t i o n i n I F S

Cost of atmospheric composition in NWP (CB05 + AER)• Model simulation only : x 5 more expensive • Data assimilation suite: x 2 more expensive (40 x more expensive than forecast)


L o a d i m b a l a n c e a n d I F S d o m a i n d e -‐c o m p o s i t i o n

IFS grid IFS domain de-‐composition Time spent in Photolysis routine for ach MPI process

AtmosphereMonitoring Aerosol (LOA/LMD-‐Z) Chemistry (CB05)

C -‐ I F S a e r o s o l a n d c h e m i s t r y s c h e m e s

SSsmall SSmid SSlarge

DUsmall DUmid DUlarge

OMhphob OMhphil

BChphob BChphil

SO2 SO4

NOx H2O2 CH4 CO HNO3O3

CH2O PAR C2H4 OLE ALD2CH3OOH

ROOH ONIT C5H8 SO2 DMSPAN

SO4 NH4 MSA CH3COCHO O3 (strat)NH3

Pb NO HO2 CH3O2 OHRn

NO3 N2O5 HO2NO2 C2O3 RORNO2

XO2 XO2N NH2 CH3OH HCOOHRXPAR

C2H6 C2H5OH C3H8 C3H6 C10H16MCOOH

NO3 (aerosol) CH3COCH3 ACO2 IC3H7O2 HYPROPO2ISPD

PSCNOxA

NO3 fine NO3 coarse NH4

Zak Kipling





OMhphob OMhphil

BChphob BChphil

SO2 SO4










PSCNOxA






OMhphob OMhphil

BChphob BChphil

SO2 SO4










PSCNOxA


Zak Kipling


I n t r o d u c i n g n i t r a t e a e r o s o l

One-‐way coupling Two-‐way coupling

S. Remy

Background: surface nitrate aerosol from 2014 cycling forecastCircles: AIRBASE observations


N i t r a t e a e r o s o l : i m p a c t v s . A E R O N E T

obs ref 1-‐way 2-‐way


D r y D e p o s i t i o n H N O 3 2 0 0 3 -‐ 2 0 0 9

19/05/2017 11

Working on evaluating and improving wet and dry deposition fluxes could become joint topic for regional and global modelling groups

Dry deposition from EURAD


I F S G H G f o r e c a s t : n e w d e v e l o p m e n t s

CO2, CH4 and linear CO high resolution forecast

1. Coupling with CO2, CH4 and CO analysis.2. Resolution upgrade: from 16 to 9 km.3. Upgrade in the mass fixer to ensure monotonicity.4. Upgrade in emissions (EDGAR4.2FT2010)5. Tagged tracers to monitor:

Ø Biomass burning (CO, CO2, CH4)Ø Anthropogenic emissions (CO, CO2, CH4)Ø Biogenic fluxes (CO2, CH4)Ø Ocean fluxes

High resolution (9km) L137Low resolution (80km) L137Low resolution (80km) L60High resolution transport andlow resolution fluxes

Anna Agusti-‐Panareda

AtmosphereMonitoring • DAY 5 FORECAST

E x a m p l e o f t a g g e d t r a c e r s f o r X C O 2

BIOGENIC ANTHROPOGENIC

OCEAN FIRES

Anna Agusti-‐Panareda


1 0 Y e a r s o f A t m o s p h e r i c C o m p o s i t i o n F o r e c a s t a t E C M W F

10YEARS

COMPOSITION Forecast at ECMWF

First NRT publication on web site 17th of May 2007

Carbon Monoxide at 500 hPa T159


E v a l u a t i o n o f C O ( P B L ) a t F r a n k f u r t ( M O Z A I C / I A G O S )

Start of Composition NRT osuitewith dta assimilation: IFS/AER-‐MOZART

C-‐IFS(IFS-‐MOZART retired) T511 resolution

upgrade

Note:NRT CRT was nudgedto O-‐suite 2014-‐2016


E v a l u a t i o n o f t r o p o s p h e r i c o z o n e a t L e g i o n o w o

Ozone in the Planetary Boundary Layer overLegionowa/Poland


S u m m m a r y

• Over the last 10 years the quality of the GEMS/MACC/CAMS global NRT system has greatly improved

• Effort needed to maintain this progress in present and future • Attracting more user by:

– Smaller errors of existing CAMS products – New CAMS products such as

• deposition fluxes• new tracers (e.g HCN, phosphorus, Fe content in dust, volcanic ash and

SO2, stratospheric chemistry … )

• Further development of the global CAMS model remains a rewarding scientific and technical challenge


E v a l u a t i o n o f C O ( P B L ) a t F r a n k f u r t ( M O Z A I C / I A G O S )


Control Forecast without assimilation• evnj (20070501-‐20071130) (bug fixes)• ez2m (20071201-‐20090430) -‐ MOZ.3• f45r (20090501-‐20090731) -‐ MOZ.3 • f7kn (20090731-‐20111130) -‐ MOZ3 (strato fix, SO2 added)• fkya (20111201-‐20140831) – (MOZ3.5 MACCity scaled)• g4o2 (20140901-‐20150901 -‐ C-‐IFS (with aerosol )• geuh (20150901-‐20160624) • gjjh (20160601-‐20170223 ) • gnhb (20170124-‐ present

O-‐suite with data assimilation, with aerosol• f1kd (20080801-‐20090730) MOZ.3• f93i (20090801-‐201209302)• fnyp (20121001-‐20140917) MOZ.3.5, T255• g4e2 (20140918-‐2015102012) C-‐IFS, T255• g9rr (20150903-‐2016062100 )• 0001 (2016062112 present) T511

C-‐IFS(IFS-‐MOZART retired)

T511 resolution upgrade



E v a l u a t i o n o f s t r a t o s p h e r i c o z o n e a t N e u m a y e r S t a t i o n

Note:NRT CRT was nudgedto O-‐suite 2014-‐2016


Control Forecast without assimilation• evnj (20070501-‐20071130) (bug fixes)• ez2m (20071201-‐20090430) -‐ MOZ.3• f45r (20090501-‐20090731) -‐ MOZ.3 • f7kn (20090731-‐20111130) -‐ MOZ3 (strato fix, SO2 added)• fkya (20111201-‐20140831) – (MOZ3.5 MACCity scaled)• g4o2 (20140901-‐20150901 -‐ C-‐IFS (with aerosol )• geuh (20150901-‐20160624) • gjjh (20160601-‐20170223 ) • gnhb (20170124-‐ present

O-‐suite with data assimilation, with aerosol• f1kd (20080801-‐20090730) MOZ.3• f93i (20090801-‐201209302)• fnyp (20121001-‐20140917) MOZ.3.5, T255• g4e2 (20140918-‐2015102012) C-‐IFS, T255• g9rr (20150903-‐2016062100 )• 0001 (2016062112 present) T511

Documents

CAMS ASSEMBLY 2017 Flemming - Copernicus...Atmosphere Monitoring Atmospheric0 Composition0in0the0IFS ECMWF’s0Integrated0Forecasting0System0(IFS) NWP0model0 Dynamic,0physics,0 transport