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Cambridge Advisors October 2012

Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

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Page 1: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

Cambridge Advisors

October 2012

Page 2: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

Brandon SnowPrincipal & Portfolio Manager

Alan RadloChief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager

Robert SwansonPrincipal & Portfolio Manager

Emi WintererAnalyst

Stephen GroffAnalyst

Greg DeanAnalyst

The Cambridge team

Page 3: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

The Cambridge advantage

• 70 years of combined management experience

• 12 esteemed investment management awards for consistent outperformance

• Flexibility and capacity to pursue alpha with no incentive to resemble the index

• Proven process for long-term holdings and short-term investments

• Downside protection

• A focus on absolute return resulting in outperformance

Page 4: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

A variety of actively managed portfolios

Diversified income

Cambridge Income Fund/Cambridge Income Corporate Class

Canadian equityCambridge Canadian Equity Corporate Class

Cambridge Canadian Growth Companies Fund

Cambridge Pure Canadian Equity Fund

Global equityCambridge American Equity Fund/Cambridge American Corporate Class

Cambridge Global Equity Corporate Class

Balanced/asset allocationCambridge Canadian Asset Allocation Corporate Class

Page 5: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

Back to Basics

Bob Swanson, Principal & Portfolio Manager

October 2012

Page 6: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

US Budget Crisis

US Double Dip Recession

European Debt Crisis

Middle East Uprising

CNBC Talking Heads

High Frequency Trading

JPM, Knight huge trading losses

No shortage of negative headlines

Page 7: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

U.S. and Canadian interest rates are at record lows

Canada 10-year Treasury yield

Source: Factset

Page 8: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

High-yield bond prices have risen dramatically

’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ‘12

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

Barclay’s Global High Yield Index

Source: Factset

Page 9: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

Bonds are expensive in the U.S.

120

115

105

100

95

90

85

110

80’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ‘12

Source: Factset

Barclay’s U.S. Aggregate Credit (5 – 10 year)

Page 10: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

And in Canada

118

116

112

110

108

106

104

114

102’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ‘12

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Canadian Broad Market

Source: Factset

Page 11: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

Moment of truth

• How many of you are still recommending bonds to your clients?

• How many of you have stopped your clients from reinvesting into bond funds?

Page 12: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

Record inflows into income funds

1,400,000

1,200,000

800,000

600,000

400,000

200,000

1,000,000

0

’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ‘12

Source: Factset

Page 13: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

Equity outflows

700,000

600,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

500,000

0

’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ‘12

-100,000

Source: Factset

Page 14: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

U.S. corporate profits at all-time highs

2,200

2,000

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

1,800

800’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ‘12

280

240

200

180

160

140

220

120

Source: Factset

Page 15: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

S&P500 dividends per share

35

30

20

15

10

25

’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ‘03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ‘12

Source: Factset

Page 16: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

Valuations remain below average

Source: Factset

Page 17: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

Price to earnings: 11x in 2011; 13x in 2012

Source: Factset

Page 18: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

Equity performance

Source: Factset, September 2012

Page 19: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

Earnings yields vs. bond yields

Source: Factset

Page 20: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

S&P/TSX dividend yield vs. bonds

Source: Factset

Page 21: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

Dividend yields: aristocrats vs. S&P/TSX 60

Source: Factset

Page 22: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

S&P/TSX and aristocrats

Source: Factset

Page 23: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

Growth of a dividend: Chevron

Source: Factset

Page 24: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

Bonds are guaranteeing capital losses for clients

Company

Dividend Yield

Current Yield Price

Loss at Maturity YTM

Altria Group 5.3% 4.8% 120.1 -16.6% 1.8%

Chevron Texaco 3.2% 4.0% 121.3 -17.6% 1.5%

Pfizer 3.5% 3.9% 115.4 -13.3% 1.1%

General Electric 3.1% 4.4% 118.6 -15.7% 1.5%

Cdn Nat’l Rail 1.7% 4.8% 121.8 -17.9% 1.4%

Bond Metrics*

Source: Bloomberg, bonds maturing in 4-6 years

Page 25: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

Canadian debt issuance

Source: Factset

Page 26: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

Who is buying stocks? The companies!

Source: Factset

Page 27: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

Dun & Bradstreet announced a $1 billion buyback over two years funded by cash flow and cheap debt. This represented nearly 30% of the market cap at the time of announcement. (8/9/12)

Transforce announced an increase in its credit facility to $800 million and a buyback of nearly 10% of shares. (7/27/12)

IBM issued a 10-year bond to yield 1.875%, and the company is buying back 5% of the company’s shares each year. (7/25/12)

Who is buying stocks? The companies!

Source: Ned Davis Research Inc.

Page 28: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

Who is buying stocks?

• Cambridge Income Fund• Cambridge Canadian Asset Allocation Corporate Class• Cambridge Canadian Equity Corporate Class• Cambridge American Equity Fund• Cambridge Global Equity Corporate Class

Page 29: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

Cambridge Income Fund

• Combination of global fixed income and high-yielding equities

• Diversified across regions, sectors and capital structure• Focus on income stability, with potential for capital

appreciation and inflation protection

Page 30: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

Representative portfolio structure

Investment grade 4.0%

Converts 6.0%

High-yield bonds 6.5%

REITS 5.0%

Preferred 6.5%

High-yield equity 4.5%

Infrastructure 4.5%

Utilities 5.0%

Yields

Page 31: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

Source:CI Trade Support, Factset (50%S&P/TSX Total Return / 50%BofA Cad A-AAA Total Return)

Outperformance with two-thirds the volatility of the benchmark

Cambridge Income Corporate Class performance vs. benchmark

94.00

96.00

98.00

100.00

102.00

104.00

106.00

1/9

/20

12

1/2

3/2

01

2

2/6

/20

12

2/2

0/2

01

2

3/5

/20

12

3/1

9/2

01

2

4/2

/20

12

4/1

6/2

01

2

4/3

0/2

01

2

5/1

4/2

01

2

5/2

8/2

01

2

6/1

1/2

01

2

6/2

5/2

01

2

7/9

/20

12

7/2

3/2

01

2

8/6

/20

12

8/2

0/2

01

2

9/3

/20

12

9/1

7/2

01

2

10

/1/2

01

2

10

/15

/20

12

Time

NA

V I

nd

ex

ed

to

10

0

Cambridge Income Corporate Class Blended Benchmark

Page 32: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

Fund Fund Code

Assets

(million)Foreign Content

Cambridge Canadian Equity Corporate Class CIG2321 $1.308 maximum 49%

Cambridge Canadian Asset Allocation Corporate Class CIG2322 $894.0 maximum 49%

Cambridge Global Equity Corporate Class CIG2323 $695.7 no restrictions

Cambridge Income Corporate Class CIG2261 $353.4 no restrictions

Cambridge Income Fund CIG635 $96.8 no restrictions

Cambridge American Equity Corporate Class* CIG294 $391.4 no restrictions

Cambridge American Equity Fund* CIG212 $55.4 no restrictions

Cambridge Canadian Growth Companies Fund† CIG11108 $47.5 maximum 49%

Cambridge Pure Canadian Equity Fund† CIG11109 $3.8 maximum 10%

*Effective June 5, 2011 funds were renamed from CI American Equity Corporate Class and CI American Equity Fund.† Effective July 27, 2012 funds were renamed from Castlerock Canadian Growth Companies and Castlerock Pure Canadian

Equity Fund

Source: RBC Dexia at September 30, 2012

Cambridge offers a variety of mandates

Page 33: Cambridge Advisors October 2012. Brandon Snow Principal & Portfolio Manager Alan Radlo Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Robert Swanson Principal

Thank YouAll charts and illustrations in this guide are for illustrative purposes only. They are not intended to predict or project investment results.

®CI Investments, CI Investments design and Cambridge are registered trademarks of CI Investments Inc. Cambridge Advisors is the business name of CI Global Holdings Inc. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Unless otherwise indicated and except for returns for periods less than one year, the indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in security value. All performance data assume reinvestment of all distributions or dividends and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated.