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© 2015 IHS © 2015 IHS
Presentation
ihs.com
IHS
Cambios Fundamentales Que están afectando
el Negocio del Plastico en 2015
Preparado para Acoplasticos
Colombia
Rina Quijada
IHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America
+ 1 832 619 8586
Junio 1, 2015
CHEMICAL
© 2015 IHS
• Technical + Specialties
• World’s leading business research & forecasting service
• Provider of chemical process economics for the global chemical industry
• Trusted authority on chlor-alkali, vinyl chloride, and bleaching chemicals
• Market and pricing data
• 100-year information supplier
• Authoritative chemical business news
• Information resource for high-level industry executives & professionals
• Commercial + Strategic
• Market, planning & consulting advisory services
• Analytical & technical expertise
Chemical Week
CMAI
SRI Consulting
Harriman Chemsult
2
IHS Chemical
Quien es IHS
© 2015 IHS
Chemicals
Power &
Utilities
Agriculture
Electronics &
Telecom
Government
Metals &
Mining Healthcare
Financial
Military &
Security
Automotive
Energy
Coal
Transportation
Shipping
Aerospace &
Defense
Construction
Energy
Oil & Gas
Consumer
& Retail
….To Deliver Unique, Cross – Disciplinary Content and Knowledge of Your End Markets
© 2015 IHS 4
Presentation Name / Month 2015 Customers of the
Chemical Industry Chemical Industry Value Chain Natural Resources
• Oil
• Gas
• Coal
• Minerals
• Renewables
Mining, Drilling,
Refining & Gas
Processing Olefins (ethylene, propylene, butylene)
Basic Chemicals
Aromatics (benzene, toluene,
xylenes)
Chlor-Alkali (chlorine, caustic
soda)
Others (e.g., ammonia, phosphorous)
Methanol
• Automotive / Transportation
• Consumer products
• Packaging
• Building & construction
• Recreation /Sport
• Industrial
• Medical
• Pharmaceuticals
• Personal care
• Textiles
• Electrical/ Electronics
• Aircraft / Aerospace
• Business equipment
Chemical Intermediat
es
Commodities
Differentiated Commodities
Technical Specialties
• Plastics & Engineering Resins
− Extruded films, pipe, profiles, coatings, sheet, foams, sheet
− Blow-molded parts
− Injection molded parts
− Composites
• Synthetic Fibers
• Rubber Products
• Paints & Coatings
• Adhesives & Sealants
• Lubricants
• Water Treatment products
• Cleaning Products
• Industrial Chemicals
• Flame Retardants
• Many others…
Formulated Products / Performance Materials
© 2015 IHS 5
Presentation Name / Month 2015
AGENDA
• La Economía y La Energía
• Cambios Fundamentales
• Comercio Cambiante
• Conclusiones
© 2015 IHS © 2015 IHS 6
La Economía
Rina Quijada
IHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America
+ 1 832 619 8586
© 2015 IHS
Economic Growth in Latin America
GDP Growth, %
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Argentina 3.1 0.1 9.5 8.4 0.8 2.9 0.5 -0.8 1.9 3.2 3.9
Brazil 5.0 -0.2 7.6 3.9 1.8 2.7 0.1 -1.4 0.7 1.9 2.5
Chile 3.3 -1.0 5.8 5.8 5.5 4.2 1.9 2.8 3.5 3.8 4.3
Colombia 3.5 1.7 4.0 6.6 4.0 4.7 4.6 3.5 3.7 4.2 4.1
Mexico 1.4 -4.7 5.1 4.0 4.0 1.4 2.1 2.6 3.6 4.0 4.1
Peru 9.2 1.1 8.4 6.5 6.0 5.7 2.4 3.5 4.3 4.9 4.7
-4.0
-1.5
1.0
3.5
6.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Latin America World USA
© 2015 IHS
Resumiendo :
• PIB crecerá mas lento en la región durante el 2015. Principalmente por la recesión en Brasil.
• Devaluación de las monedas en la región tuvo un impacto muy fuerte en Marzo. Ahora esta mas estable.
• Estados Unidos reduce su crecimiento en el primer trimestre a -0.7. Reducción de exportación, problemas con el puerto de California y bajo consumo relacionado con un invierno fuerte.
• Volatilidad en los precios continuara en este 2015.
• Precios del crudo a niveles inferiores a los esperados afectaran los presupuestos nacionales frenando un poco el crecimiento de la producción industrial. Colombia entre los países mas afectados por la caída del precio del crudo.
• Volatilidad en moneda local también tendrá un efecto limitador de las importaciones pero a su vez beneficia las exportaciones.
© 2015 IHS © 2015 IHS 9
Cambios en el precio del crudo y gas
Rina Quijada
IHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America
+ 1 832 619 8586
© 2015 IHS
Extreme Energy Differentials Create Opportunities and
Risks – March 2015
10
0
5
10
15
20
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Brent Crude USGC Light Naphtha Henry Hub Gas Ethane
Constant 2012 Dollars Per MMBtu Brent Crude & US Energy Prices
© 2015 IHS
Production of Oil and Natural Gas Selected Countries – USA, Russia and Saudi Arabia
Energy in Quadrillion BTU
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
USA Gas
USA Oil
Russia Gas
Russia Oil
KSA Gas
KSA Oil
© 2015 IHS
Production of Oil and Natural Gas U.S. Surplus Takes Stocks to Record Levels
© 2015 IHS
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
D-1
4
J-1
5
F-1
5
M-1
5
A-1
5
M-1
5
J-1
5
J-1
5
A-1
5
S-1
5
O-1
5
N-1
5
D-1
5
J-1
6
F-1
6
M-1
6
A-1
6
M-1
6
J-1
6
J-1
6
A-1
6
S-1
6
O-1
6
N-1
6
D-1
6
New Forecast Old Forecast Actual Prices
$/BBL Crude…..WTI, Spot Cushing, FOB
Last Data Point: May 26, 2015 = 58.1
Our price outlook has been raised slightly to
account for the current rally. Our outlook for Brent is
an average of $58.89/bblin 2015 and $65.49/bblin
2016. and for WTI $51.69 2015 and $58.40 for next
year.
© 2015 IHS © 2015 IHS 14
THE INDUSTRY
Rina Quijada
IHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America
+ 1 832 619 8586
© 2015 IHS
HDPE 17%
LLDPE 11%
LDPE 9%
PP 25%
PS 5%
EPS 3%
ABS 3%
PVC 17%
PET 8%
PC 2%
2013 World Polymer Demand = 222 Million Metric Tons
PP World’s Largest Polymer
~ 75 %
Homopolymer
Homopolymer
PP = 19%
© 2015 IHS
Ethylene
Base Chemical Capacity Additions: 2010 – 2020 = 231 Million Metric Tons
16
0
20
40
60
80
Methanol Propylene Ethylene Paraxylene Chlorine Benzene
2010/15 2015/20 2010/20
Million Metric Tons
Methanol Propylene
Benzene Paraxylene
Chlorine
© 2015 IHS 17
Top 5 Countries Adding Base Chemical Capacity 231 Million Tons from 2010 to 2020
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
China UnitedStates
SaudiArabia
S. Korea India
Chlorine Paraxylene Benzene
Methanol Propylene Ethylene
Million Metric Tons
Top five will add nearly 75%
of base chemical capacity.
China will dominate new
capacity, adding 45% of total
© 2015 IHS 18
Regional Trade Is Critical To Success
• Trade is an essential element of
basic chemical supply chains
• Low cost countries such as the
United States and Saudi Arabia
will export increasing volumes
• On-purpose technology will
change propylene trade patterns
• Significant investment in ships,
ports, and infrastructure is
needed to support increasing
trade volumes
5 Countries Adding 75% of Base Chemical
Capacity: 2010 to 2020 (231 MM Metric Tons)
© 2015 IHS
Ethylene Equivalent Trade Continues To Expand
19
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
North America South America West Europe Middle East
Indian Sub. Northeast Asia Southeast Asia Others
Ethylene Net Equivalent Trade
Net Exports
Net Imports
Million Metric Tons
© 2015 IHS 20
Chemical Industry Trade Balance in Brazil & Mexico,
Increasing Trade Deficit in Recent Years
-60.0
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Brazil Mexico
© 2015 IHS © 2015 IHS 21
El Polietileno
Rina Quijada
IHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America
+ 1 832 619 8586
© 2015 IHS
Polyethylene: Global Momentum
22
LDPE
LLDPE
HDPE
Total Global Demand = 84.8
Million Metric Tons
2014 Global Demand
LDPE
LLDPE
HDPE
Total Global Demand = 105.4
Million Metric Tons
2019 Global Demand
AAGR 14-19 = 4.9%
18 – 23 = 3.8 %
Growth Forecast
1.3 x GDP 14-19
© 2015 IHS
America’s Polyethylene Trade Balance: South America
part of the solution for surplus product.
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
South America Net TradeNorth America Net TradeNAM Exports Destined for SAM
Million Metric Tons
© 2015 IHS
-1.9
-2.6
Polyethylene Net Trade Flows North America and Middle East Compete for Global Shares
24
2009 2014 2019
3.5
-0.8
-0.06
-1.5
-4.4
4.8
6.4
-3.0
-2.3
-3.1
13.4
-9.2
(Million Metric Tons)
2.8
-1.8
10.8
-6.2
© 2015 IHS
NAM PE Capacity Addition List
LDPE LLDPE HDPE
2015-2016 2015-2016 2015-2016
2017 2017 2017
2018-2019 2018-2019 2018-2019
Shell
Shell
© 2015 IHS
Actualización del Proyecto Braskem Idesa
• 4.5 Billion dollar project
• Advantaged feedstock with pricing tied to US ethane
• 20 year agreement with Pemex for the supply of ethane
1050 kty ethylene cracker
• 300 kty LDPE – Equistar Lupotech tubular: film line
• 750 kty HDPE: Innovene S: chrome catalyst for blow molding and ziegler
natta for bi-modal pipe and HMW film
• Schedule: Production to begin January 2016 with full ramp up by 2Q 16
• Target markets: Domestic supply, exports to US, S. America, Brazil,
etc….
26
© 2015 IHS © 2015 IHS 27
El Polipropileno
Rina Quijada
IHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America
+ 1 832 619 8586
© 2015 IHS
Polypropylene: Americas Trade Balance
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
South America Net Trade North America Net Trade NAM Exports - SAM Imports
Net Trade, Million Metric Tons
© 2015 IHS
North American Propylene North America On Purpose Propylene Capacity Additions Latest
Update
Other Developments:
• Flint Hills purchases the PETROLOGISTICS Propylene PDH facility.
• BASF evaluating “Methane to Propylene” unit for 2019.
Estimated capacity at close to 500 ktons with a world scale 1.5 mmt methanol
plant.
• LYB announces PO/TBA unit for 2019.
This would consume approximately 300 ktons of propylene.
• Oxea to build 2-EH facility with start up in 2016.
Company Location 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020+ Total
BASF US Gulf Coast 250 250 500
Dow Freeport, TX 375 375 750
Enterprise Mont Belvieu, TX 362 363 725
Ascend Alvin, TX 586 587 1173
Formosa Point Comfort, TX 600 600
Williams Redwater, Alberta 250 250 500
RexTac Odessa 400 400
Firm: 0 375 737 363 1436 1487 250 4648
Thousand Metric Tons
© 2015 IHS
North America PP Projects
Polypropylene Capacity Additions
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (Thousand Metric Tons per Year)
Company Location
Rextac Odessa, TX 300
Unknown* US gulf Coast 220 220
Unknown* Alberta, Canada 225 225
Formosa* Point Comfort, TX 450
Total: 0 0 445 895 300
* Reported projects not fully verified or approved and not included in IHS capacity database
© 2015 IHS © 2015 IHS 31
Comercio de Resinas Cambiando
Rina Quijada
IHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America
+ 1 832 619 8586
© 2015 IHS
Exportaciones de USA en 2014 - Latino America Includes PE, PP, PS, PVC and PET
Others 51%
Mexico 27%
South America 15%
Central America 5%
Caribbean Basin 2%
Total Exports: 7.22 MM tons
Exports to LA: 3.51 MM tons
Mexico 1963
Brazil 223
Peru 216
Colombia 202
Chile 158
Ecuador 126
Guatemala 114
Argentina 98
Dominican Rep. 99
Costa Rica 91
El Salvador 47
Honduras 31
Panama 29
Trinidad & Tob. 25
Venezuela 28
All Others 62
Exports by Country in 000-tons
© 2015 IHS 33
Cambios en el Comercio del PE en las Americas
(Thousand Metric Tons)
3500
2799
6595
-810
-1895
-3006
2009 2014 2019
© 2015 IHS 34
Cambios en el comercio Neto de PP en Las Americas
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1049
231
1110
31
-382
-907
2009 2014 2019
© 2015 IHS 35
Cambios en el Comercio Neto de PS en Las Americas
(Thousand Metric Tons)
20 50 49
-28
-120 -139
2009 2014 2019
© 2015 IHS 36
Cambios en el Comercio Neto de PVC en Las Americas
(Thousand Metric Tons)
2240
3100
1745
2009 2014 2019
-332 -787
-1017
© 2015 IHS © 2015 IHS 37
Presentation Name / Month 2015
Comentarios Finales y Precios
Rina Quijada
IHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America
+ 1 832 619 8586
© 2015 IHS
Basic Raw Materials Price Changes
Junio 2013 to May 2015
Source: IHS database
448
29 48
68
46
106
337
23
46 62
35
59
284
19
39 42 28
60
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Benzene(c/gal)
Ethane (c/gal) Ethylene (c/lb) Propylene(c/lb)
Natural Gas(MMBtu) x 10
WTI Crude(US$/bar)
Jun-2013 Jun-2014 Dec-2014 May-2015
© 2015 IHS
US/CAN LDPE: Quarterly Price & Supply/Demand
Plastic Solutions / May 2015
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
2,100
2,400
720
740
760
780
800
820
840
860
880
Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15
Price (FAS Houston) Production Total Demand
Million Metric Tons US$/Ton
© 2015 IHS
US/CAN LLDPE: Quarterly Price & Supply/Demand
Plastic Solutions / May 2015
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
2,100
2,400
1,400
1,450
1,500
1,550
1,600
1,650
1,700
Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15
Price (FAS Houston) Production Total Demand
Million Metric Tons US$/Ton
© 2015 IHS
US/CAN HDPE: Quarterly Price & Supply/Demand
Plastic Solutions / May 2015
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
2,100
2,400
1,750
1,800
1,850
1,900
1,950
2,000
2,050
2,100
2,150
2,200
Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15
Price (FAS Houston) Production Total Demand
Million Metric Tons US$/Ton
© 2015 IHS
NAM PP: Quarterly Price & Supply/Demand
Plastic Solutions / May 2015
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
1,700
1,750
1,800
1,850
1,900
1,950
2,000
2,050
Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15
Price (FAS Houston) Production Total DemandFuente: ACC/IHS
Million Metric Tons US$/Ton
© 2015 IHS 43
PEPP/ June 2015
Noreste Asiático PE
Mercados Demanda
• Demanda incrementa en Q1 2015 para reponer
inventarios. Disminuye compra de reciclado.
Producción
• Costos de producción mas competitivos basado en
naftas mas baratas como materia prima.
• Resultando en tasas de operación mas altas a
pesar de paradas por mantenimiento en Q2 lo cual
afecto oferta.
Inventarios
• Demanda alta mantiene inventarios bajos y oferta
limitada.
Precios
• Precios de PE firmes en Mayo. Debido a oferta
limitada. Sin embargo, esperamos que los precios
se debiliten ligeramente en Junio , como resultado
de mayor oferta.
© 2015 IHS
Cambios Estructurales en la Industria in 2015 - 2020
Tendencia de precios de Gas Natural se separa de la
tendencia del Crudo
Estados Unidos reporta inventarios de Crudo a
niveles record. USA es el Mayor productor de Gas en
el mundo.
Estados Unidos comienza el
Re-Shoring de algunos productos. Retomando
producción local.
Wal-Mart comenzó.
America Latina se convierte
en Mercado Estratégico para
PE de los Estados Unidos
Nuevos productores de PE
entran al mercado de la
Región antes del 2020. Sasol,
Shell, son algunos ejemplos.
© 2015 IHS
Conclusiones
• Precio de Crudo se mantendrá a niveles inferiores a los 60 dólares el
barril para el 2015.
• Excedentes en Asia se orientan a mercados en las Americas ahora que
son mas competitivos.
• Proyecto Braskem/Idesa en Mexico arranca a principios del 2016. PE
de esta planta entrara en mercados de las Americas en sus primeros
años. Casi un 40 por ciento de su producción inicialmente será
exportada.
• Capacidad Nueva en USA incrementara la oferta de PE
significativamente en el 2017.
• Como prepararnos para capitalizar las oportunidades de
crecimiento en el periodo 2017 al 2020.
• Ante los cambios en energía y otras variables, el poder mantener
claro lo fundamental de los mercados será de gran utilidad.
© 2015 IHS
Warren Buffett’s
3 Principios Básicos Para
Triunfar
•Cash
•Conocimiento
•Información
© 2015 IHS © 2015 IHS
Presentation
ihs.com
IHS
Rina Quijada
IHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America
+ 1 832 619 8586
27 May 2015
CHEMICAL
GRACIAS
