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Calculations in Disaster
Quantifying Unfortunate Events for
Strategic Planning and Resource Allocation Prepared by
Victor Anderson, CHP & James M Thomas, MSRadiologic Health Branch
Center for Environmental Health
California Department of Public Health
The Lugar Survey on Proliferation Threats and Responses - June 2005
Risk of Nuclear Attack during the Next 10 Years
Question 5: In your opinion, what is the probability (expressed as a percentage) of an attack involving a nuclear explosion occurring somewhere in the world in the next 10 years?
Risk of Nuclear Attack during the Next 10 Years
79 experts in nuclear proliferation and terrorism gave their best estimation…
The average response was 29.2% Annually that’s a risk of…
or 3.4% per YearyrP /034.0.292)-(1-1 10annual ==
When playing Russian Roulette, the fact that the first shot got off safely is of little comfort for the next.
Richard Feynman
“What Do You Care What Other People Think?: Further Adventures of a Curious Character”
Calculations in Disaster Quantifying Unfortunate Events for Strategic Planning and Resource Allocation
What are the best strategies given an unfortunate event?
& Given a reasonable amount of money,
how should it be spent?
Calculations in Disaster Quantifying Unfortunate Events for Strategic Planning and Resource Allocation
Prevention through Monitoring, Detection, & Intervention?
Response through Rescue and Containment?
Recovery through Consequence Management?
Likely it’s some overall strategy involving all these elements or:
Where reasonable $$ → best combination of
MDI—RR But what is reasonable amount of $$?
MDI—the unfortunate event—RR
Calculations in Disaster Quantifying Unfortunate Events for Strategic Planning and Resource Allocation
Calculations in DisasterQuantifying Unfortunate Events for Strategic Planning and Resource Allocation
First we need to get a handle on the Cost(C) of the catastrophe, the
unfortunate event.
WherePD = Property Damage; DoU = Denial of Use; LoL = Loss of Life
( )∑ +++= )(O(LoL)(DoU)(PD) therC
Calculations in DisasterQuantifying Unfortunate Events for Strategic Planning and Resource Allocation
Then multiply it by its annual Risk (RAnnual) of happening to get the
Annualized Cost (AC) An insurance notion Minimum no profit Spreads the probable cost over many years Very high risk of insolvency (if private company)
Calculations in DisasterQuantifying Unfortunate Events for Strategic Planning and Resource Allocation
Applying the notion of Annualized Cost
Given a single 10 kiloton Nuclear Detonation in a major US metropolis DHS NATIONAL PLANNING SCENARIO Version 20.2, April 2005
Calculations Based on: HOTSPOT version 2.06,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, March 31, 2005
The Effects of Nuclear Weapons, Glasstone, S. and Dolan, P. J. (eds.) (1977).
Deaths Toll
1. Immediate Effects: 59,0002. Fallout (within 30 days): 59,000
Calculation of Cost
( )∑ +++= )(O(LoL)(DU)(PD) therC
Item Cost ($ billions)
PD, Loss of Property 219.5
DU, Loss of Commerce 167.4
LoL, Loss of Life 164.9
Total Cost (C) of the Event
551.8
5-kt Attack Estimates Range: 210 to 1,900 billion dollars Trade-Offs Among Alternative Government Interventions in the Market for Terrorism Insurance, Center for Terrorism Risk Management Policy
Remember the 2005 Lugar Report?
or a Nuclear Attack Chance of
3.4% per year
yrP /034.0.292)-(1-1 10annual ==
This is for the world… but
It’s likely that this number is good for the USA in light of recent analysis. Exploring Terrorist Targeting Preferences
2007 Homeland Security Report Rand
Thus the ANNUALIZED COST for the U.S.A. is: AR = $551.8 billion * 0.0339 or $18.7 billion/year
That’s… 18.7 Billion Dollars per Year
And this is a low ball figure
210 1,900630 RAND 5-kt Est.
551.8 our 10-kt estimate
Proportionate Californian Risk
California has in the U.S.A.
Top 20 Gross Metropolitan Product Cities: 21% Top 20 Most Densely Populated Cities: 21.4%
The Californian share of the National risk of nuclear terror is
~21%
Annualized Cost for California
The AR Estimate for California is0.21 * $18.7 billion/y = $3.9 billion/y.
This equates to $39 million per year saved for each percent of prevention and mitigation’s reduction of Annualize Cost minus the program cost
Annualized Life Cost for California
The same method can be used to examine potential Loss of Life in a form comparable with other Public Health issue analyses
118, 000 souls/event * 0.0339events/yr * 0.21 CA share
=
840 soul/yr
This Method Can Be Used For Other Infrequent Unfortunate Events Intermittent Catastrophes are difficult to budget
Magnitude of the loss of life and the large scale of economic cost capture the public’s imagination and political attention!
While long intervals between events invite complacency.
Unfortunate Event Annual Risk Notes
RDD (Radiological Dispersion Device) 5.0% 79 Experts’ opinion, 2005 Lugar Report
Major Earthquake (> 7.0 Richter) in S.F. Bay area 3.6% Derived from 67% chance over
30 years
Nuclear Weapon 3.4% 79 Experts’ opinion, 2005 Lugar Report
Pandemic Influenza 3.3%Last 100 year 1 Severe and 2 Moderate Outbreaks Last 300 years 1 Severe and 9 Moderate Outbreaks.
Tsunami from Cascadian Fault ruptureNorthern California only 0.3% 15% chance over 50 years
This Method Can Be Used For Other Infrequent Unfortunate Events
Comparisons of these “apples” and “oranges” can be made with a standardizing statistic, i.e., turning them into “fruits” to extend the analogy
Annualized Cost
Annualized Life Cost
Annualized Cost for California
1.12 billion dollars per year Annualized Life Cost for California
2,560 souls per year
Type % Probability/yr Death per 100,000 CA population Souls lost
Severe 1.1% 589 3.60E+07 2330
Moderate 2.2% 29 3.60E+07 230
Type % Probability/yr % Econ Loss GSP-CA Economic Loss
Severe 1.1% 4.25% 1,622 B$ 0.76 B$
Moderate 2.2% 1.00% 1,622 B$ 0.36 B$
Pandemic Flu for example
Finding a Figures of Merit“How Good is Our Strategy?”
The Reduced Annualized Cost (RAC)
where:
, Prevention through Monitoring, Detection, and Intervention;
, Mitigation through Response and Recovery
MDI—the unfortunate event—RR
)1)(1( MPACRAC −−=IDM fffP ∑=
RR ffM ∑∑ +=
Sidebar: Preventive/Mitigation Actions
Preventive actions are dependent on each other and are product of each action in a chain of actions, i.e.,
See the villain; Decide he’s a villain; Arrest the villain.
= p(monitoring success) x p(detention success) x p(intervention success)
Whereas Mitigation tends to be sets of independent actions, i.e., ∑ if
∏ if
One Good Figure of Merit is…
Risk Cost Annual Savings = AC –RAC– program (MDIRR) costs
This “savings” is a COST AVOIDANCE figure and each 1% of Reduced Annualized Cost… $39 million per year saved minus the programs
cost for California given a 10-kt nuclear attack
or $11 million per year saved minus the programs cost for Pandemic Flu outbreak in California
Another Good Figure of Merit is …
Life Risk Annual Savings = Annualized LoL – Reduced Annualized LoL
This is a DEATH AVOIDANCE figure and for each 1% in Reduced Annualized Loss of Life … 8.4 souls saved per year based on the
10-kt nuclear attack on a California city
or 25.6 souls saved per year based on a Pandemic Flu outbreak in California
What are the likely maximums for MDIRR?
Prevention ‑ given a 90% effectiveness of each level of MDI ‑ ~73%
Rescue - saving all that can be saved by prompted evacuation – 18%
Recovery - Mitigating effective in first year – 18%
Or 1-(1 – 0.73)(1-(0.18+0.18)) = 82.7% Risk Reduction
A savings for CA of $3.2 billion/yr- program costs; &
(1-(1 – 0.73)(1-0.18))*840 souls/yr = 654 souls/yr saved
Risk Cost Annual Savings RCAS — Curves
Sav
ings
Loss
es
Program Costs
RC
AS
m = -1
m = -1
Annualized Cost
With a perfect program maximum saving occurs with zero $ and every $
spent is a $ lost…
With a totally ineffective program saving never
occurs and every $ spent is a $ lost…
Risk Cost Annual Savings RCAS — Curves
Sav
ings
Loss
es
Program Costs
RC
AS
A B m = -1
Annualized Cost
Point where
♠ no additional Lives Saved
♦ no additional Cost Reduction
Risk Cost Annual Savings RCAS — Curves
Sav
ings
Loss
es
Program Costs
RC
AS
A B
Annualized Cost
Zone ofPolitical
Decision
Life Risk Annual Savings LRAS — Curves
Sav
ings
Loss
es
Program Costs
LR
AS
A B
Annualized Loss of Life Maximum potential Life
Saving
Zone ofPolitical
Decision
RCAS Analysis of a ProgramUsing an Agent Based Model
Rad-Cop Teaming a POST Trained Health Physicist with
California Highway Patrolmen in Specially Equipped Cruisers
Model Assumptions Randomly distributed throughout CA Police route overlap doesn’t increase detection
significantly Terrorist will take shortest rout from boarder to
target (worst case scenario) Only one terrorist per shift
RCAS Analysis of Rad-Cop
Annulized Cost Avoidance Program Ratio vs Program Cost (1000s of dollars)
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000
Program Cost
ACA/PRG Ratio .
Annulized Cost Avoidance Program Ratio vs Program Cost (1000s of dollars)
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000
Program Cost
ACA/PRG Ratio .
Annulized Cost Avoidance Effectiveness Curve (in 1000s of dollars)
$-
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000
Program Cost
Annualize Avodance Cost
Annulized Cost Avoidance Effectiveness Curve (in 1000s of dollars)
$-
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000
Program Cost
Annualize Avodance Cost
Detection/Intervention Rate 10%
Unit Cost $350,000
Overhead Cost $2,000,000
RCAS Analysis of Rad-Cop If we keep the Unit Cost and Overhead Cost the same we can compare
The Cost Avoidance for given Detection/Intervention Rates and…
Cost Benefit Ratios for given Detection/Intervention Rates
Comparison of RCAS Curves of Selected Detection/Intervention Chances
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000
Progam Costs
Cast Avoidance
DI 10
DI 30
DI 50
DI 70
Comparison of RCAS Curves of Selected Detection/Intervention Chances
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000
Progam Costs
Cast Avoidance
DI 10
DI 30
DI 50
DI 70
Comparison of Cost Benifit Ratios of Selected Detection/Intervention Chances
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000
Program Cost
Cost Bennifit Ratio
DI 10 ratio
DI 30 ratio
DI 50 ratio
DI 70 ratio
Comparison of Cost Benifit Ratios of Selected Detection/Intervention Chances
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000
Program Cost
Cost Bennifit Ratio
DI 10 ratio
DI 30 ratio
DI 50 ratio
DI 70 ratio
Why Do These Calculations?Why Do These Calculations?
• Provides Method for Provides Method for Efficient Allocation of ResourcesEfficient Allocation of Resources
• Gives Leadership Gives Leadership Political Decision Political Decision ZonesZones
• Provides Provides Figures of MeritFigures of Merit for: for:– Ranking Severity of CatastrophesRanking Severity of Catastrophes– Ranking of various Prevention, Warning, Ranking of various Prevention, Warning,
Response, and Mitigation StrategiesResponse, and Mitigation Strategies– Quality Control of Emplaced StrategiesQuality Control of Emplaced Strategies
It’s Survivable!It’s Survivable!
Extra Material - ExamplesExtra Material - Examples
Next SlideNext Slide
Annulized Cost Avoidance Program Ratio vs Program Cost (1000s of dollars)
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
- 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000
Program Cost
ACA/PRG Ratio .
RCAS Analysis of Rad-Cop
Annulized Cost Avoidance Effectiveness Curve (in 1000s of dollars)
$-
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
- 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000
Program Cost
Annualize Avodance Cost
Detection/Interdiction Rate 50%
Unit Cost $700,000
Overhead Cost $2,000,000
