Climate Change: Threats and Opportunities to

Sustainable DevelopmentFrom Regional Context and Outcomes of Cop-15

By Khim Lay, Assistant Country Director and Team LeaderEnvironment and Energy Unit, UNDP Cambodia

20-21 January 2010

Outline

• Climate Change Basic: Real or Note, Causes and Impacts

• Climate Change Vulnerability at regional level (Southeast Asia)

• Climate Change Impacts on Human Development and Poverty Reduction

• Global Solutions: Outcomes of Cop 15: Challenges and Opportunities

• Proposed recommendations: Avoid dangerous climate change and building national readiness

3

Climate Change?GREENHOUSE EFFECT

GREENHOUSE GASES (GHGs)

SUNLIGHT

SUN

INFRARED RADIATION

EARTH

GHGsGHGs

GHGs

Climate Change and Ozone Layer Layer of GHGs is about 8-10 km from earth surface while ozone layer is 10-50 km from earth surface.

GHGs: CO2, Methane and Ozone

Ozone: Oxygen layer consists of oxygen atoms, oxygen gas and ozone gas.

Global warming will lead to a weaker Oxon layer

Over Antarctica, the Ozone hole is three times the size of the United States

Climate

Average weather over a period of time ranging from months to thousand/millions of years.

Weather

Day to day status and (short term) changes in the status of the atmosphere in terms of meteorological parameters: rainfall, temperatures, pressure, etc.

Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.

Can be perceived by people (bad, good, cold, warm, rainy, extremes - heat waves, downpours, cold spells)

Cannot be perceived – needs science. Concerns the status of the entire Earth system, (atmosphere, land, oceans, snow, ice and living things)

6

Climate Change Is Real or Not?

Changes in: - Precipitation & soil evaporation - Sea level - Frequency & intensity of extreme events - Ecosystem distribution & composition

Rising Temperatures

Causes of Climate ChangeIncrease in Green House Gases mainly due to human activities such as:• Burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) to

generate energy• Land use change and deforestation

This leads to Greenhouse Effect – increase in GHGs in atmosphere preventing heat to escape into the space, keeping the earth warmer

Not just an Environmental Issue – but also Development Issue

PUBLIC HEALT

H

Increasing incidents of infectious, water-borne and vector-

borne diseases, heat stress & mortality, additional public

health costs

AGRICULTURE

Less predictability in crop yield,

changing irrigation demand, growing

risk of pest infestations

WATERRESOURC

ES

Variability in water supply, quality and distribution. More competition and

cross-border conflicts over water resources

COASTALSYSTEMS

Erosion, inundation, salinisation,

stress marshes, wetlands

ECOSYSTEMSERVICES

Loss of habitat, species and protective

ecosystems, changes in forest

composition, migratory shifts

Social stresses, economic losses, increased poverty, Unsustainable Growth

• Effects are cumulative, irreversible and global

• Inverse relationship between vulnerability and responsibility

• Unequal impact - the poorest people especially at the local community affected the earliest and most

• Significant socio-economic implicationsCost of inaction – estimates vary:

Economic Implications

Cost of inaction estimates By:5-20% of global GDP Stern Review, 2006

1-5% global GDP for 4 C warming (more for developing countries)

IPCC, 2007

6.7% of GDP in four SE Asia countries ADB, 2009

MDG Goals Examples of phenomena aggravated by Climate ChangeFood insecurity, infrastructure loss, reduced agriculture productivity, employment and economic growthLoss of livelihood assets, displacement/migration, cut back access to educationNatural resources depletion, reduced agriculture productivity, etc. additional burdens for womenIncreased vector-borne diseases, heat-related mortality, declining quantity and quality of water supplyNegative impact on quality and productivity of natural resources and ecosystems

Climate change as a global phenomenon calls for a collective response

Relevance to MDGs

Source:

http://www.undp.org/climatechange/

Composition of Vulnerability

Level of CC VulnerabilityCl

imat

ic Ha

zard

s Sensitivity

Lack of Adaptive Capacity

Severe climatic events; floods;

drought; sea level rise

Population density; extent of protected

area

Socio-economic factors: Human Development,

poverty, inequality, technology & infrastructure: power supply, irrigation, road,

communication, …Adapted from EEPSEA 2009

Human and Ecological Sensitivity Map

Multiple Climate Hazard Map

Adaptive Capacity Map

Climate Change Vulnerability Map

Source: Reproduced with permission from EEPSEA. Vulnerability as composite of exposure to climatic hazards, sensitivity to the hazards, and adaptive capacity

Outcomes of Copenhagen Cop 15

• Seal the deal was not achieved • Copenhagen Accord- political statement not a legal

binding document• Request all countries to associate with it by Feb 2010• Request for further negotiation to transform it to

become a legal biding document • Request developed countries to set quantified

economy-wide emission targets in annex I and developing countries to set nationally appropriate mitigation actions in annex II.

Contents of the Copenhagen Accord • Recognize CC is one of the greatest challenges of our time, calling for

strong political will in accordance with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities

• Recognizing the scientific view that the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius, on the basis of equity and in the context of sustainable development

• Call for international cooperation in achieving the hold of increase of 2 degree Celsius to avoid negative consequences on efforts of social and economic development and poverty eradication of developing countries.

• Recognize the development of a low-emission development strategy is indispensable to sustainable development.

• Adaptation is a challenge faced by all countries. Enhanced action and international cooperation on adaptation is urgently required

Contents of the Copenhagen Accord (cont.)

• Agree that developed countries shall provide adequate, predictable and sustainable financial resources, technology and capacity-building

• Recognize the crucial role of reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation and the need to enhance removals of greenhouse gas emission by forests

• Agree on the need to provide positive incentives to such actions through the immediate establishment of a mechanism including REDD-plus, to enable the mobilization of financial resources from developed countries

• Decide to pursue various approaches, including opportunities to use markets, to enhance the cost-effectiveness of, and to promote mitigation actions.

Contents of the Copenhagen Accord (cont.)• Scaled up, new and additional funding shall be provided to developing countries

• The collective commitment by developed countries is to provide new and additional resources, including forestry and investments of USD 30 billion for the period 2010 . 2012

• Developed countries commit to mobilize 100 billion dollars a year by 2020 to address the needs of developing countries.

• A High Level Panel will be established to study the contribution of the potential sources of revenue,

• Decide that the Copenhagen Green Climate Fund shall be established

• Decide to establish a Technology Mechanism to accelerate technology development and transfer

• Call for an assessment of the implementation of this Accord to be completed by 2015

We must avoid dangerous climate change

-Reducing the demand on fuel: • Use fusil efficiently, • Save energy, • Promote energy efficiency the building• Clean development mechanism Controlling land use change and deforestation • Making forest sustainably managed and used including forest plantation • Conserving ecosystem and managing protected areas to enhance and

conserve carbon stock (REDD plus)• Reducing dependency on wood energy and promoting renewable

energy technologies• Making agricultural land use more productive• Controlling big land use change and making land use more sustainable

to reduce pressures on forest land • National Readiness to promote Reduction Emission from Deforestation

and Degradation (REDD)

Building National Readiness by 2015 and beyond

1. Right public perceptions on CC issues 2. Right policy and plans 3. Right institutional set up, coordination and effective

international and regional cooperation 4. Right programme and decision on investment 5. Building stronger resilience infrastructure and

facility 6. Improving knowledge on science and technologies

through formal education, research, sharing and dialogues and technology transfers

7. Policy performance evaluation and lessons learned

“Your planet needs you”UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon

THANK YOU!