By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. February 4 th, 2014 Back to the Future Part II On Behalf of The Design Build Institute of America

Raging Bull (1980)

Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2015* Source: International Monetary Fund *2014-2015 data are projections

Real GDP Growth, 20 Fastest and Slowest Growing Countries Estimated 2013, Annual Percent Change (for available nations) RankCountryRegion% RankCountryRegion% 1South SudanAfrica24.7169BelgiumEurope0.1 2Sierra LeoneAfrica13.3170DenmarkEurope0.1 3TurkmenistanCentral Asia12.2171SamoaAsia0.1 4ParaguaySouth America12.0172SwazilandAfrica0.0 5MongoliaAsia11.8173Czech RepublicEurope-0.4 6Lao P.D.R.Southeast Asia8.3174CroatiaEastern Europe-0.6 7LiberiaAfrica8.1175FinlandEurope-0.6 8Timor-LesteSoutheast Asia8.1176BarbadosCaribbean-0.8 9Cte d'IvoireAfrica8.0177SpainEurope-1.3 10GhanaAfrica7.9178NetherlandsEurope-1.3 11ChinaAsia7.6179Equatorial GuineaAfrica-1.5 12PanamaCentral America7.5180Islamic Republic of IranMiddle East-1.5 13RwandaAfrica7.5181PortugalEurope-1.8 14Kyrgyz RepublicCentral Asia7.4182ItalyEurope-1.8 15UzbekistanCentral Asia7.0183SloveniaEastern Europe-2.6 16CambodiaSoutheast Asia7.0184San MarinoEurope-3.5 17EthiopiaAfrica7.0185GreeceEurope-4.2 18MozambiqueAfrica7.0186LibyaMiddle East-5.1 19TanzaniaAfrica7.0187CyprusEurope-8.7 20MyanmarSoutheast Asia6.8188Central African RepublicAfrica-14.5 *2013-2014 data are projections Source: International Monetary Fund

Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2014 Projected Source: International Monetary Fund *For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and output growth is based on GDP at market prices. Corresponding growth forecasts for GDP at factor cost are 4.6 percent for 2013.

Debt by Selected Country 2012 *IMF Staff Projections Source: International Monetary Fund

RankExchangeIndex% Change 4Tokyo SENikkei 22556.7% 2NasdaqNASDAQ Composite38.3% 1NYSE GroupDJI A26.5% 6Frankfurt SEDAX25.5% 8Bolsa De MadridMadrid General21.4% 12Swiss ExchangeSwiss Market20.2% 5EuronextCAC 4018.0% 10BorsaItalianaFTSE MIB16.6% 3London SEFTSE 10012.0% 9TSX GroupS&P TSX Composite9.6% 11Hong Kong ExchangesHang Seng Index2.9% 7Shanghai SEShanghai Composite-6.8% Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2013 Growth* Source: Yahoo! Finance *Change from the 2012 close to the 2013 close.

S&P Select Sector Performance 12-Month Percent Change as of December 31 st, 2013 Source: Standard & Poors

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet v. S&P 500 Index May 2008 January 2014 Source: Federal Reserve Bank; Yahoo Finance S&P 500 index depicted in orange

Third Quarter Earnings for Select Corporations Earnings per Share SymbolQ3 2012 Q3 2013 Estimated Q3 2013 Reported SurpriseSymbolQ3 2012 Q3 2013 Estimated Q3 2013 Reported Surprise FCX$0.68$0.62$0.79$0.17UTX$1.37$1.54$1.55$0.01 BTU$0.51-$0.04$0.05$0.09XRX$0.25 $0.26$0.01 MSFT$0.60$0.54$0.62$0.08GE$0.36$0.35$0.36$0.01 COF$2.01$1.80$1.86$0.06COH$0.77$0.76$0.77$0.01 DD$0.32$0.41$0.45$0.04UPS$1.06$1.15$1.16$0.01 VFC$0.88$0.94$0.98$0.04MCD$1.43$1.51$1.52$0.01 VZ$0.64$0.74$0.77$0.03HON$1.20$1.24 $0.00 MMM$1.65$1.75$1.78$0.03DOW$0.42$0.54$0.50-$0.04 TXN$0.52$0.53$0.56$0.03CMG$2.27$2.78$2.66-$0.12 AMD-$0.20$0.02$0.04$0.02CAT$2.54$1.67$1.45-$0.22 YHOO$0.35$0.33$0.34$0.01STI$1.98$0.69$0.33-$0.36 Source: Yahoo! Finance

Source: Moodys Economy Recession Watch as of November 2013

Industrial Production January 2001 through December 2013 Source: Federal Reserve The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.

Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2013Q4* Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *Advanced (1 st ) Estimate

Contributions to GDP Growth by Component Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Ordinary People (1980)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics December 2013: +74K Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2002 through December 2013

National Construction Employment Monthly Net Change February 2000 through December 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Industry Sector13-Dec13-Nov12-Dec1-net12-net12-% Construction5833.05849.05711.0-16.0122.02.1% Residential Building601.2596.4594.94.826.84.7% Nonresidential Building685.2686.4675.2-1.210.01.5% Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction885.1893.9884.6-8.80.50.1% Specialty Trade Contractors3661.13672.63576.5-11.584.62.4%

National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector December 2012 v. December 2013 All told 2,186 K Jobs gained Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Cumulative Job Growth Since December 2007: Full-time v. Part-time December 2007 December 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey Full-time: -4.33 million Part-time: +2.63 million

Maryland Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) December 2012 v. December 2013 Absolute Change MD Total: +36.0K; +1.4% US Total (SA): +2,186K; +1.6% *According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) series MD lost 20,044 jobs between December 2012 and December 2013. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Baltimore-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) December 2012 v. December 2013 Absolute Change Baltimore MSA Total: +18.6K; +1.4% MD Total (SA): +36.0K; +1.4% US Total (SA): +2,186K; +1.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Washington, DC-Arlington-Alexandria MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) December 2012 v. December 2013 Absolute Change DC MSA Total: +25.8K; +0.8% US Total (SA): +2,186K; +1.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Area Office Market Statistics 2013 Q4 Source: MacKenzie Commercial Real Estate Services AreaAvailable SF Direct Vacancy Rate % Q4 2013 Net Absorption SF YTD 2013 Net Absorption SF Avg Asking Rent $/SF/YR City Center3,170,01116.65%60,360335,742$20.85 Other Baltimore City1,193,58013.82%9,32145,314$20.73 Total City4,363,59115.67%69,681381,056$20.82 Southern Metro4,686,45313.86%-26,904289,394$24.62 Northern Metro5,377,68416.18%54,235-69,160$21.67 Total Metro10,064,13715.00%27,331220,234$23.04 TOTAL MARKET14,427,72815.20%97,012601,290$22.37

Area Flex Industrial Market Statistics 2013 Q4 Source: MacKenzie Commercial Real Estate Services AreaAvailable SF Direct Vacancy Rate % Q4 2013 Net Absorption SF YTD 2013 Net Absorption SF Avg Asking Rent $/SF/YR Annapolis 731,6557%-50,632-48,480$16.13 Arbutus 386,79315%33,06514,848$7.95 Balt County East 411,32310%10,554111,226$11.46 Baltimore City 995,53914%28,18374,831$7.87 BW Corridor 2,291,1238%100,236306,991$11.90 Carroll 234,12016%7,50024,322$8.76 Harford/ Cecil 475,75117%12,44035,666$10.21 I-83 Corridor 389,1785%-43,12928,891$10.74 Reisterstown Road 605,03617%-12,478-12,977$10.42 Woodlawn/ Catonsville 383,8219%-9,731-46,703$9.87 TOTAL MARKET 6,904,33910%76,008488,615$10.99

Area Warehouse Industrial Market Statistics 2013 Q4 Source: MacKenzie Commercial Real Estate Services AreaAvailable SF Direct Vacancy Rate % Q4 2013 Net Absorption SF YTD 2013 Net Absorption SF Avg Asking Rent $/SF/YR Annapolis 790,0106.50%18,312232,328$6.44 Arbutus 1,090,33010.95%36,48952,268$4.63 Balt County East 4,704,77911.95%191,292-91,882$4.11 Baltimore City 6,867,1407.57%242,409-8,134$4.34 BW Corridor 7,819,75211.34%267,567399,917$5.28 Carroll 1,048,3689.70%59,518287,856$4.23 Harford/ Cecil 2,719,8174.08%259,0711,700,435$4.43 I-83 Corridor 396,6696.24%41,205-151,207$7.77 Reisterstown Road 215,3413.07%-4,300-70,999$7.50 Woodlawn/ Catonsville 305,32710.30%-116,190-104,892$4.04 TOTAL MARKET 25,957,5338.52%995,3732,245,690$4.74

U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 1.6% Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) December 2012 v. December 2013 Percent Change R ANK S TATE %R ANK S TATE %R ANK S TATE % 1 N ORTH D AKOTA 4.017 H AWAII 1.634 V ERMONT 1.0 2 F LORIDA 2.617 M ICHIGAN 1.634 W EST V IRGINIA 1.0 3 O REGON 2.417 N ORTH C AROLINA 1.637 I OWA 0.8 4 T EXAS 2.317 W ISCONSIN 1.637 N EW H AMPSHIRE 0.8 5 D ELAWARE 2.222 M ARYLAND 1.437 R HODE I SLAND 0.8 6 G EORGIA 2.222 S OUTH D AKOTA 1.437 V IRGINIA 0.8 7 A RIZONA 2.024 I DAHO 1.341 C ONNECTICUT 0.7 7 S OUTH C AROLINA 2.024 M ISSOURI 1.341 K ANSAS 0.7 9 C OLORADO 1.924 W YOMING 1.341 M ONTANA 0.7 9 W ASHINGTON 1.927 O KLAHOMA 1.244 A LABAMA 0.6 11 I NDIANA 1.828 A RKANSAS 1.145 O HIO 0.5 11 N EVADA 1.828 I LLINOIS 1.146 N EW M EXICO 0.4 13 M ASSACHUSETTS 1.728 M AINE 1.147 K ENTUCKY 0.3 13 M INNESOTA 1.728 N EBRASKA 1.147 N EW J ERSEY 0.3 13 M ISSISSIPPI 1.728 N EW Y ORK 1.147 P ENNSYLVANIA 0.3 13 U TAH 1.728 T ENNESSEE 1.150 D ISTRICT O F C OLUMBIA -0.1 17 C ALIFORNIA 1.634 L OUISIANA 1.051 A LASKA -0.7 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

State-by-state Growth in Construction Jobs December 2012 v. December 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics *Construction, Mining, and Logging are included in one industry. STATE Year-over- year Ch. (000) STATE Year-over- year Ch. (000) STATE Year-over- year Ch. (000) California28.9Louisiana1.9Nebraska*0.0 Florida28.8Wyoming1.8Idaho-0.1 Texas13.5North Dakota1.6Illinois-0.2 Georgia9.9Hawaii*1.5Delaware*-0.2 Mississippi8.5Arkansas1.4Wisconsin-0.3 New York7.1Iowa1.1Ohio-0.4 Colorado7.0Kansas1.1West Virginia-0.4 Minnesota6.6South Dakota*1.0Montana-0.5 Connecticut5.8Alaska0.7District of Columbia*-0.7 Virginia5.4Rhode Island0.7Oklahoma-0.8 Arizona4.9Utah0.7Nevada-0.9 Oregon4.6Vermont0.6Tennessee*-1.5 South Carolina4.3Alabama0.5Kentucky-2.1 Maryland*4.1Maine0.5New Jersey-3.3 Missouri3.9New Hampshire0.4North Carolina-3.7 Massachusetts3.5New Mexico0.3Indiana-5.5 Michigan2.0Washington0.3Pennsylvania-7.6

U.S. Unemployment Rate: 6.7% Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) December 2013 RANKSTATE%RANKSTATE%RANKSTATE% 1 N ORTH D AKOTA 2.6 17 W EST V IRGINIA 5.9 34 O REGON 7.0 2 N EBRASKA 3.6 19 T EXAS 6.0 36 N EW Y ORK 7.1 2 S OUTH D AKOTA 3.6 20 A LABAMA 6.1 37 O HIO 7.2 4 U TAH 4.1 20 M ARYLAND 6.1 38 N EW J ERSEY 7.3 5 I OWA 4.2 22 C OLORADO 6.2 39 A RKANSAS 7.4 5 V ERMONT 4.2 22 D ELAWARE 6.2 39 C ONNECTICUT 7.4 7 W YOMING 4.4 22 F LORIDA 6.2 39 G EORGIA 7.4 8 H AWAII 4.5 22 M AINE 6.2 42 A RIZONA 7.6 9 M INNESOTA 4.6 22 W ISCONSIN 6.2 43 T ENNESSEE 7.8 10 K ANSAS 4.9 27 A LASKA 6.4 44 K ENTUCKY 8.0 11 N EW H AMPSHIRE 5.1 27 N EW M EXICO 6.4 44 M ISSISSIPPI 8.0 12 M ONTANA 5.2 29 S OUTH C AROLINA 6.6 46 D ISTRICT O F C OLUMBIA 8.1 12 V IRGINIA 5.2 29 W ASHINGTON 6.6 47 C ALIFORNIA 8.3 14 O KLAHOMA 5.4 31 I NDIANA 6.9 48 M ICHIGAN 8.4 15 I DAHO 5.7 31 N ORTH C AROLINA 6.9 49 I LLINOIS 8.6 15 L OUISIANA 5.7 31 P ENNSYLVANIA 6.9 50 N EVADA 8.8 17 M ISSOURI 5.9 34 M ASSACHUSETTS 7.0 51 R HODE I SLAND 9.1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA) November 2013 RankMSAUR RankMSAUR 1 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area4.010 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area6.3 2 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD- WV Metropolitan Statistical Area4.912 St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area6.5 3 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area5.613 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area6.8 3 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area5.614 New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area6.9 5 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area5.715 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ- DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area7.0 6 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA5.815 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area7.0 7 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area6.017 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area8.1 7 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area6.018 Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area8.3 9 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area6.219 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area8.5 10 Baltimore-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area6.320 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area9.4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

MD County Unemployment Rates November 2013 RankJurisdictionURRankJurisdictionUR 1 Howard County4.5 13 Garrett County6.3 1 Montgomery County4.5 13 Talbot County6.3 3 Calvert County5.1 15 Baltimore County6.4 3 Frederick County5.1 16 Cecil County6.6 5 Carroll County5.2 17 Allegany County7.0 5 St. Mary's County5.2 18 Caroline County7.2 7 Charles County5.3 19 Washington County7.3 8 Queen Anne's County5.4 20 Wicomico County8.2 8 Anne Arundel County5.4 21 Dorchester County9.1 10 Harford County5.8 21 Baltimore City9.1 11 Kent County6.2 23 Somerset County9.4 11 Prince George's County6.2 24 Worcester County14.0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Field of Dreams (1989)

Source: The American Institute of Architects Architecture Billings Index January 2008 through November 2013 November, 2013: 49.8

Nonresidential Construction Put-in-Place December 2006 through December2013 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Dec. 08: $697.4 billion Dec. 13: $573.1 billion -17.8%

National Nonresidential Construction Spending by Subsector December 2012 v. December 2013 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Inputs to Construction PPI January 2001 December 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Key Commodity Prices January 2001 December 2013 Source: BLS: EIA

Construction Materials PPI 12-month % Change as of December 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The Shining (1980)

Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007 through December 2013 Source: Conference Board

Coming to America (1988) Economy gained momentum over the course of last year; Tailwinds included booming stock market, lower gasoline prices, stabilizing global economy, and consumer expenditures on interest rate sensitive durable goods like housing and autos; The current year is associated with greater certainty regarding federal budgeting and monetary policy that helps; The world is not perfect - black swan threats remain: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe (4) contagion (5) cyber (6) EMP; Healthcare reform could slow full-time hiring over the course of the year; and Further evidence of Marylands economic and demographic under-performance.

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By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. February 4 th, 2014 Back to the Future Part II On Behalf of The Design Build Institute of America