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© 2015, Fiatech
By: Anirban BasuSage Policy Group, Inc.
April 15th, 2015
The Pit and the PendulumOn Behalf of
Fiatech
© 2015, Fiatech
Dawn of the Dead
© 2015, Fiatech
Real GDP Growth, 20 Fastest and Slowest Growing CountriesProjected 2014, Annual Percent Change (for available nations)Rank Country Region % Rank Country Region %1 Turkmenistan Central Asia 10.1 169 Netherlands Europe 0.62 Chad Africa 9.6 170 France Europe 0.43 Mongolia Asia 9.1 171 Brazil South America 0.34 Democratic Republic of the Congo Africa 8.6 172 Russia Eastern Europe 0.25 Côte d'Ivoire Africa 8.5 173 Solomon Islands Pacific Islands 0.16 Myanmar Southeast Asia 8.5 174 San Marino Europe 0.07 Mozambique Africa 8.3 175 Italy Europe -0.28 Ethiopia Africa 8.2 176 Finland Northern Europe -0.29 Sierra Leone Africa 8.0 177 Serbia Eastern Europe -0.5
10 China Asia 7.4 178 Barbados Caribbean -0.611 Lao P.D.R. Southeast Asia 7.4 179 Croatia Eastern Europe -0.812 The Gambia Africa 7.4 180 St. Lucia Caribbean -1.113 Tanzania Africa 7.2 181 Argentina South America -1.714 Cambodia Southeast Asia 7.2 182 Equatorial Guinea Africa -2.515 Uzbekistan Central Asia 7.0 183 Iraq Middle East -2.716 Sri Lanka Southeast Asia 7.0 184 Venezuela South America -3.017 Nigeria Africa 7.0 185 Cyprus Europe -3.218 Mauritania Africa 6.8 186 Ukraine Eastern Europe -6.519 Burkina Faso Africa 6.7 187 South Sudan Africa -12.320 Panama Central America 6.6 188 Libya Middle East -19.8
Source: International Monetary Fund, October 2014 WEO Database
© 2015, Fiatech
Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2015 Projected*
MexicoBrazil
Latin America and CaribbeanMiddle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & Pakistan
India***China
Developing AsiaRussia
Central/eastern EuropeSub-Saharan Africa
Emerging/developing countries**United States
CanadaUnited Kingdom
JapanSpain
ItalyGermany
FranceEuro area
Advanced economies
-5.0% -3.0% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0%
3.2%0.3%
1.3%3.3%
6.3%6.8%
6.4%-3.0%
2.9%4.9%
4.3%3.6%
2.3%2.7%
0.6%2.0%
0.4%1.3%
0.9%1.2%
2.4%
Annual % ChangeSource: International Monetary Fund, January 2015 WEO Update*Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during December 8, 2014–January 5, 2015.
© 2015, Fiatech
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-70%
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
Jobs 0.3%
Incomes 4.7%
Profits 61.0%
Housing -6.8%
Stocks 33.5%
Perc
ent c
hang
e sin
ce e
nd o
f 200
7
What Lies Beneath
Source: BEA, BLS, S&P Case-Shiller, Yahoo! Finance *Through June 2014
© 2015, Fiatech
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Median Weekly Earnings, Full-Time U.S. Workers*2000Q4 through 2014Q4
*SA, Constant 1982-1984 dollars (adjusted to CPI-U); Wage and salary workers ages 16+
2000
Q4
2001
Q3
2002
Q2
2003
Q1
2003
Q4
2004
Q3
2005
Q2
2006
Q1
2006
Q4
2007
Q3
2008
Q2
2009
Q1
2009
Q4
2010
Q3
2011
Q2
2012
Q1
2012
Q4
2013
Q3
2014
Q2$320
$325
$330
$335
$340
$345
$350
© 2015, Fiatech
Average Hourly Earnings: Construction WorkersFebruary 2007 – February 2015
Feb-0
7
Oct
-07
Jun-
08
Feb-0
9
Oct
-09
Jun-
10
Feb-1
1
Oct
-11
Jun-
12
Feb-1
3
Oct
-13
Jun-
14
Feb-1
5$10.5
$11.0
$11.5
$12.0
Feb. 2015:$11.4
*1982-1984 Dollars, S.A.Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
© 2015, Fiatech
Source: Moody’s Economy
Recession Watchas of December 2014
© 2015, Fiatech
Source: Pew analysis of U.S. Census Bureau’s quarterly tax revenue data, as adjusted by the Rockefeller Institute of Government
Tax Collections in 2014Q2 vs. Each State’s Peak*Real tax revenue still lower in 29 states since recession
*Adjusted for inflation
© 2015, Fiatech
Industrial ProductionFebruary 2001 through February 2015
Source: Federal Reserve
The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.Feb
-01
Oct
-01
Jun-
02
Feb-0
3
Oct
-03
Jun-
04
Feb-0
5
Oct
-05
Jun-
06
Feb-0
7
Oct
-07
Jun-
08
Feb-0
9
Oct
-09
Jun-
10
Feb-1
1
Oct
-11
Jun-
12
Feb-1
3
Oct
-13
Jun-
14
Feb-1
580
85
90
95
100
105
110
Ind
ex (
20
07
= 1
00
)
(Base year: 2007)
© 2015, Fiatech
Gross Domestic Product1990Q1 through 2014Q4
1990
Q1
1991
Q1
1992
Q1
1993
Q1
1994
Q1
1995
Q1
1996
Q1
1997
Q1
1998
Q1
1999
Q1
2000
Q1
2001
Q1
2002
Q1
2003
Q1
2004
Q1
2005
Q1
2006
Q1
2007
Q1
2008
Q1
2009
Q1
2010
Q1
2011
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Perc
ent
Change f
rom
Pre
cedin
g P
eri
od
(SA
AR
)
2014Q4: +2.2%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
© 2015, Fiatech
Contributions to GDP Growth by Component 2013Q4 – 2014Q4
Personal Con-sumption
Government Spend-ing
Net Exports Gross Investment-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0 2.5
-0.7
1.10.60.8
-0.2
-1.7-1.1
1.8
0.3
-0.3
2.9
2.21
0.80 0.781.18
2.98
-0.35
-1.03
0.61
Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14
SA
AR
(%
)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
© 2015, Fiatech
Invasion of the Body Snatchers
© 2015, Fiatech-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Th
ou
san
ds
March 2015: +126K
Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLSJanuary 2002 through March 2015
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
© 2015, Fiatech
National Nonfarm Employmentby Industry SectorMarch 2014 v. March 2015
Mining and LoggingInformation
GovernmentOther Services
Financial ActivitiesManufacturing
ConstructionLeisure and Hospitality
Education and Health ServicesTrade, Transportation, and Utilities
Professional and Business Services
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
4597273
150188
282490
541607
662Chart Title
Thousands, SA
All told 3,128K Jobs gained
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
© 2015, Fiatech-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
March-15:-1K
Mon
thly
Net
Ch
an
ge (
t-h
ou
san
ds)
National Construction Employment Monthly Net ChangeMarch 2000 through March 2015
Industry Sector 15-Mar 15-Feb 14-Mar 1-net 12-net 12-%Construction 6,344.0 6,345.0 6,062.0 -1.0 282.0 4.7 Residential Building 691.5 687.8 644.8 3.7 46.7 7.2 Nonresidential Building 723.4 722.8 691.5 0.6 31.9 4.6 Heavy & Civil Engineering Construction 933.7 937.6 904.3 -3.9 29.4 3.3 Specialty Trade Contractors 3,995.1 3,997.2 3,821.8 -2.1 173.3 4.5
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
© 2015, Fiatech
Source: Chart created by Matt Stevens (Stevens Construction Institute) using data from U.S. Department of Labor and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, published by the National Society of Professional Engineers, June 2014.
U.S. Construction Productivity Value of Construction Put in Place per Employee 1993-2013
© 2015, Fiatech
Source: IT Key Metrics Data 2014, Gartner Benchmark Analytics
IT Spending as a Percent of Revenue, By Industry
Construction, etc.
Chemicals
Retail & Wholesale
Consumer Products
Transportation
Insurance
Telecommunications
Healthcare Providers
Media & Entertainment
Software Publishing & Internet Services
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
1.0%1.1%1.3%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.5%2.6%2.8%3.2%3.2%3.8%4.2%4.2%4.7%5.0%6.3%6.7%3.3%
© 2015, Fiatech
Evidence of a Construction Labor Shortage: Hires v. Job OpeningsFebruary 2012 through February 2015
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Hires Job Openings
12-m
onth
Perc
ent
Change
(SA
)
© 2015, Fiatech
Source: JBKnowledge, 2014 Construction Technology Report
Limits to Adoption*
*Percentages do not round to 100 (respondents could select multiple responses)
Other Responses Time to investigate and approve Data security concerns Data integration and compatibility with existing systems Lacking proof of ROI
Other
NA-We try everything
Employee Hesitation
Management Hesitation
Learning Curve
Maturity of Tech
Lack of Support Staff
Budget
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
4.9%
7.5%
27.4%
32.1%
34.1%
36.1%
36.8%
53.6%
% of Respondents Citing Reason
“What prevents your company from adopting new technology most often”?
© 2015, Fiatech
State-by-state Growth in Construction JobsFebruary 2014 v. February 2015
*Construction, Mining, and Logging are included in one industry.
STATEYear-over-year
Ch. (‘000)STATE
Year-over-year Ch. (‘000)
STATEYear-over-year
Ch. (‘000)
TEXAS 44.6 IDAHO 5.0 CONNECTICUT 0.9CALIFORNIA 43.4 NORTH DAKOTA 4.8 MONTANA 0.9FLORIDA 29.6 OHIO 4.7 ARIZONA 0.8WASHINGTON 18.0 MISSOURI 4.3 NEW MEXICO 0.8COLORADO 16.9 SOUTH CAROLINA 4.3 NEW HAMPSHIRE 0.7NORTH CAROLINA 15.5 ARKANSAS 4.1 VERMONT 0.6NEW JERSEY 14.5 MASSACHUSETTS 3.7 WYOMING 0.4ILLINOIS 13.1 MARYLAND* 3.7 HAWAII* 0.4MICHIGAN 11.8 OREGON 3.3 RHODE ISLAND 0.2NEW YORK 11.4 VIRGINIA 3.3 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA* 0.2UTAH 8.3 NEVADA 3.2 ALASKA 0.1WISCONSIN 7.5 OKLAHOMA 2.7 NEBRASKA* 0.1TENNESSEE* 7.0 KANSAS 2.6 DELAWARE* 0.0IOWA 6.7 LOUISIANA 2.4 MAINE -0.3GEORGIA 6.0 ALABAMA 1.6 WEST VIRGINIA -0.7PENNSYLVANIA 5.8 SOUTH DAKOTA* 1.4 INDIANA -1.5KENTUCKY 5.7 MINNESOTA 1.3 MISSISSIPPI -4.4
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
© 2015, Fiatech
U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 2.3%
Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA)February 2014 v. February 2015 Percent Change
RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %1 UTAH 4.2 17 TENNESSEE 2.2 34 IOWA 1.42 NORTH DAKOTA 4.0 19 WISCONSIN 2.1 34 NEW JERSEY 1.43 GEORGIA 3.8 20 DELAWARE 2.0 34 OKLAHOMA 1.44 FLORIDA 3.5 20 INDIANA 2.0 34 VERMONT 1.45 OREGON 3.4 20 NEW MEXICO 2.0 39 PENNSYLVANIA 1.36 COLORADO 3.3 23 ALABAMA 1.8 39 SOUTH DAKOTA 1.36 IDAHO 3.3 23 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 1.8 41 HAWAII 1.26 NORTH CAROLINA 3.3 23 MARYLAND 1.8 42 NEBRASKA 1.16 SOUTH CAROLINA 3.3 23 NEW YORK 1.8 42 VIRGINIA 1.1
10 CALIFORNIA 3.1 27 MASSACHUSETTS 1.7 44 ALASKA 1.010 NEVADA 3.1 28 CONNECTICUT 1.6 44 LOUISIANA 1.010 TEXAS 3.1 28 OHIO 1.6 46 MISSISSIPPI 0.910 WASHINGTON 3.1 30 KANSAS 1.5 47 NEW HAMPSHIRE 0.814 ARIZONA 2.8 30 MINNESOTA 1.5 47 RHODE ISLAND 0.815 ARKANSAS 2.5 30 MISSOURI 1.5 49 MONTANA 0.716 KENTUCKY 2.3 30 WYOMING 1.5 50 WEST VIRGINIA 0.317 MICHIGAN 2.2 34 ILLINOIS 1.4 51 MAINE 0.0
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
© 2015, Fiatech
U.S. Unemployment Rate February 2015: 5.5%March 2015: 5.5%
Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) February 2015
RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %
1 NEBRASKA 2.7 18 DELAWARE 4.8 35 ILLINOIS 6.0
2 NORTH DAKOTA 2.9 18 WISCONSIN 4.8 35 NEW MEXICO 6.0
3 SOUTH DAKOTA 3.4 20 MASSACHUSETTS 4.9 37 WEST VIRGINIA 6.1
3 UTAH 3.4 21 MAINE 5.0 38 ALASKA 6.3
5 MINNESOTA 3.7 22 OHIO 5.1 38 GEORGIA 6.3
6 IDAHO 3.9 23 KENTUCKY 5.2 38 RHODE ISLAND 6.3
6 NEW HAMPSHIRE 3.9 23 PENNSYLVANIA 5.2 38 WASHINGTON 6.3
6 OKLAHOMA 3.9 25 NORTH CAROLINA 5.3 42 CONNECTICUT 6.4
6 VERMONT 3.9 26 ARKANSAS 5.5 42 NEW JERSEY 6.4
10 WYOMING 4.0 26 MARYLAND 5.5 44 ARIZONA 6.5
11 HAWAII 4.1 26 MISSOURI 5.5 45 SOUTH CAROLINA 6.6
11 IOWA 4.1 29 FLORIDA 5.6 45 TENNESSEE 6.6
13 COLORADO 4.2 30 ALABAMA 5.8 47 CALIFORNIA 6.7
13 KANSAS 4.2 30 NEW YORK 5.8 47 LOUISIANA 6.7
15 MONTANA 4.3 30 OREGON 5.8 49 MISSISSIPPI 7.0
15 TEXAS 4.3 33 INDIANA 5.9 50 NEVADA 7.1
17 VIRGINIA 4.7 33 MICHIGAN 5.9 51 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 7.8Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
© 2015, Fiatech
Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA)February 2015
Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR
1Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.0 10
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.5
2Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.1 12
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.8
3Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.3 12
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.8
4San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.5 14 St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.0
5 Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA 4.8 15Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.1
6Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.9 16
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.3
7Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.3 17
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.5
7 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.3 18Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.7
9 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.4 19Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.8
10 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.5 20Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.0
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
© 2015, Fiatech
Nightmare on Elm Street
© 2015, Fiatech
15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates April 1995 through April 2015*
Source: Freddie Mac
Apr-
95
Feb
-96
Dec
-96
Oct
-97
Aug-9
8
Jun-9
9
Apr-
00
Feb
-01
Dec
-01
Oct
-02
Aug-0
3
Jun-0
4
Apr-
05
Feb
-06
Dec
-06
Oct
-07
Aug-0
8
Jun-0
9
Apr-
10
Feb
-11
Dec
-11
Oct
-12
Aug-1
3
Jun-1
4
Apr-
15
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2.93%
3.66%
15-yr30-yr
Rate
*Week ending 4/9/2015
© 2015, Fiatech
U.S. New Home SalesJanuary 1999 through February 2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Ja SeM
a Ja SeM
a Ja SeM
a Ja SeM
a Ja SeM
a Ja SeM
a Ja SeM
a Ja SeM
a Ja0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
February 2015539K
Th
ou
san
ds,
SA
AR
© 2015, Fiatech
U.S. Housing StartsFebruary 1999 through February 2015
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1 Unit 5 units or more
Th
ou
san
ds,
SA
AR February 2015:
1 Unit: 593K5 Units or more: 297K
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
© 2015, Fiatech
U.S. Homeownership
Q4-1980Q3-1984Q2-1988Q1-1992Q4-1995Q3-1999Q2-2003Q1-2007Q4-2010Q3-201460%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
2014 Q4:63.9%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
© 2015, Fiatech
U.S. Private New Multifamily ConstructionFebruary 1993 through February 2015
Feb-9
3
Dec-9
3
Oct
-94
Aug-9
5
Jun-
96
Apr-9
7
Feb-9
8
Dec-9
8
Oct
-99
Aug-0
0
Jun-
01
Apr-0
2
Feb-0
3
Dec-0
3
Oct
-04
Aug-0
5
Jun-
06
Apr-0
7
Feb-0
8
Dec-0
8
Oct
-09
Aug-1
0
Jun-
11
Apr-1
2
Feb-1
3
Dec-1
3
Oct
-14
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$ B
illi
on
s (
SA
AR
)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
© 2015, Fiatech
U.S. Housing Building PermitsFebruary 1999 through February 2015
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1 Unit 5 units or more
Th
ou
san
ds,
SA
AR February 2015:
1 Unit: 620K5 Units or more: 445K
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
© 2015, Fiatech
D.C.
New
Yor
k
Chica
go
Detro
it
Compo
site-20
Bosto
n
Atlant
a
Los A
ngeles
Las V
egas
San F
ranc
isco
Dalla
s
Mia
mi
Denve
r0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
1.3%2.1%
2.5%2.9%
4.6% 4.7% 4.9%5.7% 5.9%
7.8% 8.1% 8.3% 8.4%
12
-Mo
nth
% C
han
ge
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros
January 2015, 12-Month Percentage Change
Source: Standard & Poor’s
© 2015, Fiatech
Source: The American Institute of Architects
Architecture Billings IndexJanuary 2008 through February 2015
Jan-0
8M
ar-
08
May-
08
Jul-08
Sep
-08
Nov-
08
Jan-0
9M
ar-
09
May-
09
Jul-09
Sep
-09
Nov-
09
Jan-1
0M
ar-
10
May-
10
Jul-10
Sep
-10
Nov-
10
Jan-1
1M
ar-
11
May-
11
Jul-11
Sep
-11
Nov-
11
Jan-1
2M
ar-
12
May-
12
Jul-12
Sep
-12
Nov-
12
Jan-1
3M
ar-
13
May-
13
Jul-13
Sep
-13
Nov-
13
Jan-1
4M
ar-
14
May-
14
Jul-14
Sep
-14
Nov-
14
Jan-1
5
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
February 2015: 50.4
© 2015, Fiatech
Nonresidential Construction Put-in-PlaceDecember 2006 through February 2015
Dec-06
Mar-0
7Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-0
8Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-0
9Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-1
0Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-1
1Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-1
2Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-1
3Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-1
4Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000 PublicPrivate
SA
AR
($bil
lion
s)
Dec. 08: $697.4 billion Feb. 15: $611.6 billion
-12.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
© 2015, Fiatech
National Nonresidential Construction Spending by Subsector February 2014 v. February 2015
PowerCommunication
ReligiousPublic safetyHealth careEducational
Highway and streetWater supply
TransportationLodging
CommercialOffice
Conservation and developmentSewage and waste disposalAmusement and recreation
Manufacturing
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
-17.2-15.5
-10.3-9.6
-4.5-0.6
3.37.4
9.310.4
13.519.019.819.9
22.537.9
12-month % ChangeSource: U.S. Census Bureau
© 2015, Fiatech
Inputs to Construction PPIMarch 2001 – March 2015
Mar
-01
Nov
-01
Jul-0
2
Mar
-03
Nov
-03
Jul-0
4
Mar
-05
Nov
-05
Jul-0
6
Mar
-07
Nov
-07
Jul-0
8
Mar
-09
Nov
-09
Jul-1
0
Mar
-11
Nov
-11
Jul-1
2
Mar
-13
Nov
-13
Jul-1
4
Mar
-15
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
12
-mo
nth
Perc
en
t C
han
ge
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
© 2015, Fiatech
Psycho
© 2015, FiatechGasoline Stations
Electronics & Appliance StoresGeneral Merchandise Stores
Food & Beverage StoresClothing & Clothing Accessories Stores
Furniture & Home Furn. StoresInternet, etc. Retailers
Miscellaneous Store RetailersHealth & Personal Care Stores
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music StoresMotor Vehicle & Parts Dealers
Building Material & Garden Supplies DealersFood Services & Drinking Places
-30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0%
-22.0%-1.9%
0.3%2.5%2.7%3.8%3.9%4.0%4.9%5.1%5.2%6.3%
7.7%
12-month % change
Sales Growth by Type of Business March 2014 v. March 2015*
*March 2015 advanced estimateSource: U.S. Census Bureau
© 2015, Fiatech
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators IndexAugust 2007 through February 2015
Source: Conference Board
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
On
e-m
on
th P
erc
en
t C
han
ge
February 2015 = 121.4 where 2010 = 100
© 2015, Fiatech
Tell-Tale Heart• Economy gained momentum
over the course of last year;
• Tailwinds included booming stock market, lower gasoline prices, stabilizing global economy, and consumer expenditures on interest rate sensitive durable goods like autos;
• The current year is associated with greater certainty regarding monetary policy – that helps;
• The world is not perfect - black swan threats remain: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe (4) contagion (5) cyber (6) EMP;
• Market is nervous, but perhaps for the wrong reasons; and
• More people benefit from lower oil prices than are hurt – more contractors and developers are helped than hurt – frankly, low oil prices just don’t make me that nervous.
© 2015, Fiatech
Thank YouCo
ntac
t & M
ore
Info
rmati
on
• Follow us on Twitter @SagePolicyGroup• You can always reach me at
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