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BUSINESS CONDITIONS and CONSUMER SENTIMENT SURVEY
July 2005-June 2006
Prof. Mahammad Nuriyev
Center For Economic and Business Research and Education
Khazar University, Azerbaijan
Introduction
Business Conditions and Consumer Sentiment Indexes in Azerbaijan were for the first time calculated in 2006 by the Center for Economic and Business Research and Education (CEBRE), Khazar University.
The study has been carried out within the framework of the project “Strengthening Macroeconomic Forecasting Capability in Azerbaijan”. The project funded by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation. CEBRE has been carrying out the project in cooperation with the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER).
AZERBAIJAN: MAIN MACROECONOMIC
INDICATORS
Composition of GDP
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
GDP, mln US $ 5272.6 5707.8 6236.1 7276.3 8680 12553
GDP, per capita 665 714.3 774.5 896.7 1060.3 1517.6
Industry, % 36 37.6 37.4 37.2 38.3 47.5
Agriculture, % 15.9 14.7 13.8 12.2 10.8 9
Construction, % 6.5 5.8 8.7 11.2 12.5 10
Trade, % 6.7 7.8 7.9 7.6 7.7 6.9
Transport and communication, %
12 10.1 9.8 10 9.5 8.1
Other, % 22.9 24 22.4 21.8 21.2 18.5
GDP and Oil Production
GDP and Oil Production
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
GD
P (
mln
US
$)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Oil P
rod
uctio
n (m
ln to
n)
GDP
Oil Production
Oil Prices
Oil Price (US dollars per barel)
29,5825
28,5
37,9
50,2
75
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1Q2006
Investments Directed to Azerbaijan Economy
Investments directed to Azerbaijan Economy
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
mln
. U
S $ Total Inv.
Foreign Inv.
Domestic Inv.
Inflation in Azerbaijan
Inflation
1,5%
9,6%
6,7%
2,2%2,8%
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
12,0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Azerbaijan: GDP Growth
GDP Growth
9,9% 10,6% 11,2%7,0%
26,4%
38%
0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
40,0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 E
Interest Rate
Interest Rate
10%
7%7.5%
8%9%
9.5%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
01.01.01 16.09.02 23.05.05 30.06.05 01.10.05 3.07.06
Business Conditions Survey: THE METHODOLOGY
Layout of Questionnaire
Two-page, printed double-sided Front page request for general information Second page covers the survey questions Statement of confidentially, reminder of
questionnaire submission
Business Conditions Survey questionnaire - Front Page
General information requested Name of Company Mailing Address Main Products (Activities) Contact Person Telephone Number Email Address
Business Conditions Survey questionnaire - Second Page
Total of 17 questions Choice of an alternative
from 3 answer options Questions kept short
and simple
Current Position and Changes in the Previous half-year
Companies’ production/service volume Capacity utilization Sales volume Number of employees Labor cost per unit of product Sale prices Investment costs Inventory Cost of inputs
Expected Changes for the next half-year
Production/service volume Sales volume Number of employees Labor cost per unit of product Sale prices Investment costs Cost of inputs
Conducting the Survey
Consumer Sentiment Survey conducted via direct contacts with respondents
Business Condition Survey conducted via Mail and direct contacts
Each Business questionnaire enclosed with cover letter, stamped return envelope
Methodology of Calculating BCI
BCI = (C1+C2+C3+C4+C5+C6+C7+C8)*2/n
N-number of indicators, in our case it is 8 basic components
C1 is current production volume (in comparison with last 6 months) Q 1 C2 is present production volume Q 2 C3 is future production volume Q 3 C4 is present sales volume (in comparison with last 6 months) Q 4 C5 is present sales volume Q 5 C6 is expected sales volume Q 6 C7 is present investment costs (in comparison with last 6 months) Q 13 C8 is expected investment costs Q 14
Business Activity Spheres
Business Activity Spheres
45
24 25
6
38
20
31
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Trade Industry Transport, Communications and others
Construction
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
BCI and its Components
BCI and its Components
68,9
29,7
72,1 62,4
53,4
78,2 70,8
77,6
128,3
63,8
37,3
70,156,3 56,7
75,0 69,4 69,8
124,6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 BCI
(3-4) Q05
(1-2) Q06
Product Volume in Comparison withthe Previous 6 months
Product volume in comparison with the previous 6 months
51.1
35.8
11.1
2.1
43.3 41.0
15.7
0.00.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Increased Remained unchanged
Decreased No answer
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
Current Capacity Utilization Level
Capacity utilization level at present
6,3
46,8 41,6
5,311,9
50,7
34,3
3,0
010,020,030,040,050,060,0
Above Full Capacity Capacity
Below Capacity
No answer
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
Expected Production Volume for the Next 6 months
Product volume for the next 6 months
53,7
36,8
5,8 3,7
47,0 46,3
6,70,0
0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
Increase Remain unchanged
Decrease No answer
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
Product Sales in Comparison with the Previous 6 months
Product sales in comparison with the previous 6 months
41,6 41,6
14,7
2,1
34,3
44,0
21,6
0,0 0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
Increased Remained unchanged
Decreased No answer
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
Current Sales
Sales at present are
24,7
57,4
16,8
1,1
30,6
52,2
17,2
0 0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
Good Satisfactory Bad No answer
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
Expected Sales in the Next 6 months
Sales in the next 6 months
61,6
33,2
4,7 0,5
55,2
39,6
5,20,0
0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
Increase Remain unchanged
Decrease No answer
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
Employment in Comparison with the Last 6 months
Employment in comparison with the previous 6 months
36,3
53,7
9,5
0,5
32,1
53,7
13,4
0,7 0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
Increased Remained unchanged
Decreased No answer
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
Expected Employment
Employment in the next 6 months
34,2
60,0
5,8
35,1
61,2
3,7 0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
Increase Remain unchanged Decrease
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
Wage per Unit of Output in Comparison with the Last 6 months
Wages per unit of output in comparison with the previous 6 months
39,551,1
6,33,2
27,6
59,0
13,40,0
0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
Increased Remained unchanged
Decreased No answer
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
Wage per Unit of Output
Wage per unit of output in the next 6 months
52,6
38,9
5,3 3,2
43,352,2
3,7
0,7
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
Increase Remain unchanged
Decrease No answer
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
Sales prices in comparison with the previous 6 months
50,0
41,6
7,41,1
39,6
48,5
11,9
0,0 0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
Increased Remained unchanged
Decreased No answer
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
Sales Prices
Expected Sales Prices in the Next 6 months
Sales prices in the next 6 months
58,9
33,2
5,82,1
32,1
57,5
10,4
0,00,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
Increase Remain unchanged Decrease No answer
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
Investment
Investment spending in comparison with the previous 6 months
50,5
40,5
6,32,6
49,3
40,3
9,70,7
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
Increased Remained unchanged
Decreased No answer
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
Investment Spending in the Next 6 months
Investment spending in the next 6 months
58,9
37,4
1,1 2,6
50,0
39,6
9,70,7
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
Increase Remain unchanged
Decrease No answer
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
Finished Goods Inventory
Compared to desired level, finished goods inventory
8,9
56,8
30,5
3,711,9
63,4
23,1
1,50,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
High Suitable Low No answer
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
Price of Input in Comparison with the Last 6 months
Price of input (Raw materials, energy and subcontracting) in comparison with the previous 6 months
68,4
25,3
3,7 2,6
50,741,0
7,50,7
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,040,0
50,060,0
70,0
80,0
Increased Remainedunchanged
Decreased No answer
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
Expected Price of Input in the Next 6 months
Prices of inputs (raw material, energy and subcontracting) in the next 6 months
73,7
19,5
3,7 3,2
43,3 47,0
8,21,5
0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
Increase Remain unchanged
Decrease No answer
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
Business Conditions Index
In spite of significant growth of GDP driven by oil production increase, BCI decreased by 3%
Production and sales show steady growth Labor market stable and job outlook remains modest Prices of inputs have increased and expected to
increase in the next six months Inflation acceleration and threat of double-digit
inflation Steady growth of domestic non-oil investment and
expected reduction of the FDI
Consumer Sentiment Index: Consumer Sentiment Index:
THE METHODOLOGYTHE METHODOLOGY
Structure of Questionnaire
Qualitative in nature Questions kept relatively straightforward and simple Questions covered relate to current conditions and
expectations for the coming months A total of eleven attitudinal questions are asked in the
survey Questions are categorized by household income
changes, current economic conditions and future expectations
Questions Asked in Survey
Households’ present financial position in comparison with the previous 6 months
Households’ current financial position Households’ expected financial position Current availability of jobs Expected availability of jobs Good/bad time to buy major consumer durables Expectations on general price changes Spending plans for durables
Consumer Sentiment Index questionnaire - Front Page
General information requested Age Education Occupation Gender Family status Family size Address Telephone number
Consumer Sentiment Index questionnaire - Second Page
Total of 11 questions Questions cover the
following areas: Economic conditions
and changes during the last six months
Current economic conditions
Expectations for the next six months
Calculation of the CSI
The index is computed based on 3 indicators: The indicator of current financial position of
household CFP (Q1) The indicator of expected financial position of
household EFP (Q2) The indicator of expected employment outlook
EEO (Q5)Indicator = (((number of positive answers /
sum of all answers)*100)*2) + (((number of neutral answers / sum of all answers)*100)*1)
Calculation of the CSI
CSI = ((CFP+EFP+EEO)/n)*100/base year
t – is the six months under the review CFP - Households’ current financial position EFP - Households’ expected financial position EEO - Households’ expected employment outlook
CSI and its Components
CSI and its components
103.1
123.6
106.3111.2
10099.1
123.5
107.3 110
98.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
CFP EFP EEO CSI CSI (base year)
(3-4)05
(1-2)06
Current Financial Position in Comparison with the past 6 months
Current Financial Position in comparison with the past 6 months
23,9
52,1
20,8
3 0,2
22,1
46,0
22,9
8,90,1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Better Same Worse Don’t know No answer
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
Current Financial Position
Current Financial Position (%)
14,3
57,2
21,6
6,40,5
17,9
49,3
23,6
9,00,1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Good Satisfactory Bad Don’t know No answer
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
Expected Financinal Position
Expected Financinal Position
27,732,7
10,9
28,4
0,3
27,5
35,6
10,3
26,5
0,105
10152025303540
Better Same Worse Don’t know No answer
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
Comparative Analysis of the Financial Position
Comparative Analysis of the Financial Position
99.9 103.1123.6
90.297.8
120.2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
CCFP CFP EFP
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
Present Job Opportunities
Present Job Opportunities
11,5
25
47
16
0,5
12,5
26,9
45,3
15,0
0,305
101520253035404550
Good Satisfactory Bad Don’t know No answer
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
Expected Job Opportunities
Expected Job Opportunities
20,8
36,5
15,9
26,3
0,5
20,7
34,3
15,6
29,2
0,305
10152025303540
Better Same Worse Don’t know No answer
(3-4)Q05(1-2)Q06
Current and Expected Employment Opportunity
Indicators
Current and Expected Employment Opportunity Indicators
57.6
106.8
61.3
107.3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
CEOI EEOI
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
Change of Prices in Comparison with the previous 6 months
Change of prices in comparison with the previous 6 months
93,3
4,80,5 1,0 0,5
82,5
10,8 4,4 1,9 0,30
102030405060708090
100
Increased Unchanged Decreased Don’t know No answer
(3-4Q)05
(1-2)Q06
Expectations about Prices
Expectation about prices
80
6,9
1,1
11,40,6
63,2
13,25,7
17,1
0,80
102030405060708090
Increase Unchange Decrease Don’t know No answer
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
Saving and Borrowing
Saving and Borrowing
51,6
3,8
37,8
19,7
43,8
4,7
36,1
12,9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Saved money
Deposited money
Borrowed money
Lent money
(3-4)Q05(1-2)Q06
Buying Durables
Is it good time to buy durables?
19,7
57,5
22,0
0,8
18,3
60,1
20,7
0,80
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Yes No Don’t know
No answer
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
Durables Bought
7.2 3.4 7.4 4 6.68.2
19.9
7.5 6.9 3.8 5.110.6
46.8
6.4 2.8 3.2 2.8 3.5 3.212.6
5.4 2.6 2.8 2.1 7.9
58.6
010203040506070
Buying
or R
epair
ing
o
f Flat
Car
Was
hing
mas
hineg
Plot TV
Compu
ter
Mob
ile p
hone
Gold/si
lver
Trave
l
Refrig
erat
or/ c
ondit
ioner
Furnit
ure
Other
dur
ables
None
(3-4)Q05
(1-2)Q06
Durables Planned for the Purchase
Which of the following items respondent is going to buy in the next 6 months?
14,3
6,1 6,3 4,8
5,613,6 11,2
59,9
4 5,9 9,6
43,1
10,8 5,7
4,6 4,2 4,0 6,4 7,6 4,7 6,1
4,03,1 4,6
52,5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Buy
ing
or
Rep
airin
g of
flat
Car
W
ashi
ng
m
ashi
ne
P
lot
T
V
C
ompu
ter
M
obile
pho
ne
Gol
d/si
lver
Tra
vel
R
efrig
erat
or/
con
ditio
n
F
urni
ture
O
ther
dur
able
s
Non
e
(3-4)Q05 (1-2)Q06
The Percentage of the Answers “Don’t know”
CCFP– comparative current financial position (comparatively to the last 6 months); CFP – current financial position; EFP – expected financial position; CEO- current employment opportunities; EEO – expected employment outlook; TBD – time to buy durables; CPC – comparative price changes (comparatively to the last 6 months) EPC – expected price changes.
The percentage of the answers "Don't know"
0
510
1520
2530
35
CCFP CFP EFP CEO EEO TBD CPC EPC
(3-4)Q05(1-2)Q06
Index Consumer Sentiments
CSI actually did not change Financial position of the households is
moderate Job opportunities are limited Price increase is steady and substantial Spending plans are vague
General Overview and Issues
Economic growth driven by oil production, increasing oil prices and export
Weak development of the non-oil sectors of economy
Unfavorable business conditions in the non-oil sector
High share of informal economy Slow pace of structural reforms Lack of the long-term investment policy Threat of accelerated inflation
Thank you
