© OECD/IEA 2014 © OECD/IEA 2014

Buildings Policy, Modeling Considerations, and Collaboration Opportunities

Marc LaFrance

ETP 2016 Workshop

Paris, 29 October 2014

© OECD/IEA 2014

Importance of Buildings Sector

Largest end-use sector

1/3 carbon emissions

50% of electricity

Major portion of GDP

Opportunities/challenges:

• 75% - 90% of OECD building stock still in service by 2050

• Large population growth in developing world will drive new floor area that needs to be efficient (2.5 billion more by 2050)

Industry31%

Transport30%

Other sectors4%

4%11%

22%

28%

5%

30%

Buildings35%

Coal

Oil

Natural gas

Electricity

Commercial heat

Renewables

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2013 BUILDING PUBLICATIONS

Dec 2013 Aug 2013 Jun 2013

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Priority Recommendations – All Related to Urban

Note: Recommendations limited to top two for technology and policy, all items could be relevant for most countries. Red indicates immediate priority, while gold indicates second priority.

ASE

AN

Bra

zil

Ch

ina

Euro

pe

an

Un

ion

Ind

ia

Mex

ico

Ru

ssia

Sou

th

Afr

ica

Un

ite

d

Stat

es

Technology

Advanced envelope – cold climate

Reduced cooling loads – hot climates

Heat pumps

Solar thermal

More efficient use of biomass

Policy

Building codes with supporting infrastructure

Appliance and equipment standard

Deep renovation of existing buildings

Zero-energy new buildings

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Policies – Integrated Across Levels of Government

R&D, manufacturing standards, education, etc

Whole building performance metrics and certificates

Targets and goals for performance

Investment funds/incentives to avoid increased supply and electricity capacity

Building codes

Public purchasing programmes

Public housing/ government buildings

Building code enforcement

Voluntary “energy efficient” development and refurbishment zones

Revolving investment funds

Building codes

National/State Level Local/city level

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Biggest Policy Impact for Cities

Public Sector Buildings

• Adopting deep energy renovation policies

• Constructing the most efficient buildings possible within constraints of life cycle cost

• Adopting energy efficient purchasing programs

Private Sector Buildings

• Enforce stringent building codes

• Encourage migration to smaller, energy efficient urban dwellings – consistent with macro city plans but hard to focus on just for building energy savings

• Provide extensive set of public case study data to allow for investment community to replicate

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Buildings Model 31 Country/Regional Forecasts

Countries Brazil Germany Mexico

Canada Iceland Norway

Chile India Russia

China Israel South Africa

Denmark Italy Sweden

Finland Japan United Kingdom

France Korea United States

Regions ASEAN

Other Africa

Other developing Asia

Other Latin America

Other non-OECD Europe and Eurasia member non-member of the EU

Other non-OECD Europe and Eurasia member of the EU

Other OECD Asia Oceania

Other OECD Europe member of the EU

Other OECD Europe non-member of the EU

Middle East Will add Australia, Indonesia and New Zealand in 2015, possibly others.

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Key Drivers – Floor Area and Households

We derive floor area forecasts to 2050 based on existing floor area data, GDP and population forecasts

We derive household occupancy forecasts to 2050 based on existing data, GDP and population forecasts – then the number of households are determined with population forecasts

Joint IEA/Tsinghua University work, new forecasts available soon and subject to peer review

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Excel Based Model – Output to Supply Times Model

Residential Module

• Floor area and households (Driver)

• Space heating

• Water heating

• Lighting

• Cooking

• Space cooling

• Appliances Refrigerators & freezers

Washers & dryers

Televisions

Miscellaneous electricity

Services Module (commercial)

• Floor area (Driver)

• Space heating

• Water heating

• Lighting

• Space cooling

• Other

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2014/2015 Model Update

Buildings model has macro global framework

Main focus of 2014/2015 is to build informal and formal partnerships to access/share data and improve modeling capability

May/June 2014 Outreach Webinar Series and Planned Workshop Nov 12th/13th - see http://www.iea.org/workshop/sustainable-buildings-workshop-.html

Attempt to improve refinement and impact assessment of major policy implementation – highly dependent upon data availability

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Flexible Model Framework with Limited Resources

IEA ETP Buildings Model

City Integrated Heat and Building

Efficiency Model

Partners

Regional/ Country Detailed Building Simulation Partners

Urban Planning,

Heat Island Impact, and Population Migration

Partners

Industry and Supply Experts for Equipment and Materials, Cogeneration, Partners

Global Modeling

Expert Partners

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Building Construction & End-Use Urban Building Impacts

Attribute Considerations and Implications Urban Impact Building Site

Orientation, Shape and Form

Major consideration to achieve very low energy/zero energy commercial and residential

buildings, easier in suburbs/rural.

Floor Area

Major impact on heating, cooling and lighting loads, usually much smaller floor area in urban

areas, could reduce GDP and jobs though.

Heating Loads

Largest end-use in buildings, much smaller in multi-family dwellings with less surface area and higher

internal loads. Lack of integration with district heating and building envelope efficiency.

Cooling Loads Globally small but growing, much higher in hotter

dense cities, less opportunity for natural measures.

Hot Water Loads Population, wealth, demographics, cultural impacts, and ground water temperatures.

Lighting Loads Usually linked to floor area and building shape and

form.

Appliances, Equipment and Plug

Loads.

Predominantly linked to wealth, behaviour, in emerging markets much greater in cities than rural.

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ETP 2016 Urban Focus

Detailed scope dependent upon stakeholder/partner priorities

City experts collaborate on possible case studies related to advanced district heating integrated with efficient buildings

Existing urban/rural energy demand analysis is of high interest

Need to be realistic considering challenges, but global analysis is possible

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Country Variability is Significant

2006 – 2003, Source: WBCSD

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District Heating and Efficient Buildings – Integrated Approach

Key drivers: urban density, heating degree days, and energy prices (today and future)

Business as usual

• District heating networks pursue future independent of plan for building renovation – business model based on sales of heat and heat density of old buildings

• Building renovation based on economics of current cost of district heating often with lower cost, high carbon producing fuels

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District Heating and Efficient Buildings – Integrated Approach

Optimised Approach

• District heating plans future with renovation of most heat intensive buildings – business model based on comfort to expanded network to more customers providing less heat, at lower temperature, supplied by smaller, cleaner supply

• Building renovation based on economics of future higher cost cleaner district heating with sub-metering, individual controls, improved comfort, and healthier dwellings

© OECD/IEA 2014

Next Steps and Collaboration

Building experts attend Nov 12th/13th Workshop

Detailed simulation model results including cost/performance curves provided to feed global model

Collaborative studies would need to start very soon – especially on detailed urban heating studies (Interest from IEA DCH Implementing Agreement but resources are a challenge)

Secondee assignments to IEA possible option

© OECD/IEA 2014

International Energy Agency

9, rue de la Federation

757 Paris Cedex 15, France

P Marc LaFrance, CEM

Energy Analyst Buildings Sector, Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology Directorate

marc.lafrance@iea.org, +33 (0)1 40 57 67 38

Contact Data

Buildings Workshop – www.iea.org/workshop/sustainable-buildings-workshop-.html