Building Rockstar Estimating Skills

Building Rockstar Estimating SkillsRon SmithMaritime DevConEstimatingAgendaManager (project start / end) Dev (project start / end) Our focus changes as the project progresses

You should test out your estimate when possibleCommunication and planning vs. technical ability

Discussion Item Five A Placeholder for text

Is Estimation Art, Science, or a combination?

Manager vs. Dev BrianHaving the right resources at the right timeMake the connection between estimation and corporate culture.

Test your estimateMonth over MonthWant a promotion?Wanna Bet?Art or Science?Dev - BrainI just want to start codingDoes not sound that hardIm busy not much time for detail

Need to present the funding amount for approval.Need to size the project correctly.I wonder if the person Im speaking with usually under estimates, over estimates or is pretty good.I wonder if we will run into issues.

Manager -BrainManager Brain vs. Dev Brain@ Project Startup How long will it take to build a new customer screen??8 hours16 hours

Manager Brain vs. Dev BrainDoes the Project Manager have the IRON CLAD details?Like a lawyer going in front of a judge pleading a caseSr. Management will try to reduce the estimateThe end client will try to reduce the estimate

one I dont know = funding cut.Dev - BrainIve been to a lot of meetingsProject Kick off (1 hour)Requirements gathering (3 hours)Requirements review (1 hour)2 weekly teem meetings (2 hours)Now they want a prototype built I can do that in 4 hours

Ill track total project spend per month.Manager -BrainManager vs. Dev Brains@ 3 weeks into project How long will it take to build a new customer screen??I forget my estimateNot focusedDev - BrainIve built something greatClient should be happyOn to my next projectProject is way over budget / timeThe business case is blownClient is already madHow am I going to explain this?Why did that 8 hour screen take 148 hours?Manager -BrainManager Brain vs. Dev Brain@ project closeout How long will it take to build a new customer screen??Detailed lookPromotion?Step 1: Dont answerYou are about to influence corporate culture.Step 2: Ask these questionsDo I need to attend weekly or specific project meetings?Do I need to follow a formal process (which one)?Is a prototype required?Is there a working app today that Ill be adding to or is this net new? Does a db exist already?Do I have to interface with an outside Vendor?Does this have to work in the DR model?Will I be participating in requirements gathering?How long will it take to do x??Estimating: Danger!!Promotion?Step 2 (continued):Are you expecting a design or test cases from me?Will I be running Integration, System or UAT testing?How does this project rank among the other corporate projects?Are the requirements written already? Can I see them?Will I need to be on stand by to test with other projects?Will data be provided to me or is a sample dummy subset ok.How long will it take to do x??Estimating: Danger!!Promotion?Step 2 (continued):Would you like me to help with the Install?Will there be release / install docs?Any risks or dependencies to this work?What time of year are you running this project?Step 3:The answers above should come from your manager in writing.Add to the above list with your own questions.Keep a risk and issue log from past projects bring them up @ estimation time.How long will it take to do x??Estimating: Danger!!Promotion?Step 4Keep your own personal estimation history with dates and write down who received itOffer to help the manager with the estimate.Ask your manager for your % allocation by project and by MonthHow long will it take to do x??Estimating: Danger!!Planned: Budget for the work.Actual: What you billed / recordedVariance: The difference / planDiff: Actual Planned

Companies must keep true historical record of their projectsCompare your planned vs recorded timeA second line of text can go here.Geographic RegionPlannedActualVarianceDiff

Project 110095-5%5Project 220025025%50Project 330056087%260Maintenance 12520-20%-5Maintenance 2101550%5TOTALS53584558%305Server side 80% screens workingOracle 10g backendStandard SQL allowedTypical Web serverServer (online)

Oracle Lite (subset of structure)ANSI SQL (subset of SQL functions)Web Server: Oracle Web-to-Go normally used for handheldsLaptop (can work offline)Client Side (0% working)Test your Estimate / Re-EstimatePorting of screens exampleInitial Estimate

1/2 day per screen

50 daysTest your estimate

33 High 4 days33 Med 3 days34 LOW 2 days299 daysRe-estimate

Land on 250 days

Estimate / Test / Re-estimatePort 100 screens

If you give me 3 days I can try one and that will allow us to make a good estimate.

Spreading your estimate over the months correctly is just as important as getting the total project estimate correct.Month over Month Spread of resourcesSpreading your estimate over the months correctly is just as important as getting the total project estimate correct.

If you can keep the team size consistent you will get faster.Month over Month Spread of resourcesHow many hours / day is the industry productive?

8-1 Ratio between your fastest and slowest resource in IT.

Is there a technological or cultural factor measure?

Some hard times of the year to run a project are Summer, March Break & Christmas.

Are we getting faster over time? Are the same resources present?

What is your corporate plan?ProductivityWanna Bet? Have fun with EstimatesBet your team mates OR provide an incentiveGive an estimateWanna wager you are off by 50%?The team member with the closest estimate gets a prize.

PERT (optimistic + likely*4 + pessimistic)/6

Note: Your company is betting the project will be worth it.

Art or ScienceSome scienceArt or ScienceEvidence Based Scheduling fogbugsFunction Point counting difficult with different technologiesShopping Cart SizingExcel spreadsheet including total projectHistorical analysisEstimation is an issue that needs buy-in from each individual resource to the CEO of a company to work well.

Ron Smith: Mariner ron.smith@marinerpartners.comMaritimes JUG: ron@maritimes-jug.caCareertown: ron@Careertown.ca