BristolCC UMDartmouth Talk

7/24/2019 BristolCC UMDartmouth Talk

1/27

Our Future and the End of

the Oil Age: BuildingResilience in a Resource-

Constrained World

Dmitry Orlov

March 25, 2010

Bristol Community College

University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth


2/27

Peak Oil heory vs! "eality

Theory

#$lo%al oil &ro'uction &eaks

an' 'eclines gra'ually(

slo) gro)th#*lternative an' rene)a%le

energy ram&s u& to

com&ensate

#Challenging economicenvironment, many social

an' &olitical &ro%lems

Reality

#Massive s&ikes in oil &rices

crash financial markets

an' kill gro)th#+o money for alternatives

or further oil e&loration

an' &ro'uction

#-inancial, commercial,&olitical colla&se follo)e'

%y something com&letely

'ifferent


3/27

.OP/ for an alien intervention

#Peak Oil mo'els )ork )ell for in'ivi'ual countries! Prima

facie most of U* &eake' in 1340 *laska &eake' later6#7n'ivi'ual countries com&ensate %y im&orting oil from

countries that have not &eake' yet#8hen the entire &lanet &eaks, there is no%o'y left to im&ort

from 9 ece&t aliens from outer s&ace, of course:#7n'ustrial economies cannot gro) )ithout increasing fossil

fuel consum&tion em&irical result6!

#8ithout gro)th, 'e%ts go %a', economic an' &olitical&ro%lems mount, an' economies colla&se


4/27


8ithout hel& from frien'ly s&ace aliens, )e )on;t have the

energy to &o)er a gra'ual energy 'escent! 7t )ill %e a cliff! he

right9han' si'e of this gra&h is &ure science9fiction!


5/27

cra&ing the %ottom of the oil %arrel

The new oil is not like the old oil:

#/nergy "eturne' on /nergy 7nveste' has gone from 1001 to

101 an' is hea'ing 'o)n#8e are using u& the 'regs 'ee& offshore, heavy


6/27

cra&ing the %ottom of the oil %arrel

+et /nergy = Usa%le *c>uire' /nergy < /nergy /&en'e'


7/27

!!!the %ottom of some%o'y else;s %arrel

#he U has to im&ort over 2


8/27


The aliens better bring us some money too...

#.igh energy &rices cut into &ersonal %u'gets, making

in'ivi'uals una%le to service their 'e%ts

#Banks are %ur'ene' )ith non&erforming loans, toic assets,

foreclose' &ro&erties#$overnments ste& in to %ail out %anks#-ractional reserve %anking Aolcker 121, $reens&an ?01,

Bernanke infinity to 1#/conomy continues to shrink, @o% losses mount, ta

revenues colla&se#8ho %ails out the governments 8hy, aliens from outer

s&ace, of course:


9/27

ife%loo' transfusion

ou see, the flo) of cre'it is the life%loo' of our economy!

EO%ama, tate of the Union &eech, -e%ruary 2003F

#*ccor'ing to reasury 'ata, the long9term tren' is that %y

2015 an a''itional 'ollar of 'e%t )ill &ro'uce 0 a''itional

$DP gro)th!#he short9term tren' is that 'e%t is rising ra&i'ly as the

economy is continuing to shrink so )e may %e there

alrea'y:6#he economic &atient is hemorrhaging too fast for the

transfusion to )ork


10/27

More 'e%t, anyone

#he reasury %orro)s trillions from the -e'eral "eserve an'

&romises to re&ay this 'e%t )ith even more 'e%t#/veryone is su&&ose' to %elieve that this activity is someho)

meaningful#*ctually )e are @ust )riting ourselves 7OU;s an' &erio'ically

moving them from one &ocket to another not convincing6


11/27

8hy can;t this sho) go on

#* system that evolve' in con'itions of continuous gro)th of

material resources cannot shrink controlla%ly#he key ingre'ient is confi'ence( once faith in the future is

lost, everyone;s %ehavior changes ra'ically

#/veryone at the to& alrea'y kno)s that this sho) cannot go

on an' are attem&ting to6 &lan accor'ingly, for themselves#he name of the game is Gee& the rest of them foole' for as

long as &ossi%le

#Peo&le are still &aying 'o)n their mortgages, &utting moneyin their retirement accounts, etc!

#Being foole' this )ay can make &eo&le very angry


12/27

he logic of 'iminishing returns

#Hose&h ainter, in his Collapse of Complex Societies, &ointe'

out that social com&leity increases until further investment

in com&leity %ecomes counter&ro'uctive#.e also &ointe' out that com&le systems 'o not self9

sim&lify( they colla&se catastro&hically an' are eventually

re&lace' )ith much sim&ler systems#Diminishing returns are o%serva%le an' measura%le#Diminishing returns cannot %e e&laine' using the internal

logic of the systems involve'#he &eo&le involve' in maintaining these systems struggle

along, %ut are eventually force' to give u&


13/27

/am&les of 'iminishing returns

#/ach a''itional 'ollar of 'e%t causes the economy to shrinkeven faster#/ach a''itional 'ollar of 'efense s&en'ing makes the

country less safe#/ach a''itional 'ollar s&ent on health care makes the

country sicker#/ach a''itional 'ollar s&ent on e'ucation makes the &eo&le

more ignorant#/ach a''itional 'ollar s&ent on the @ustice system increases

in@ustice#/ach a''itional 'ollar s&ent on @o% creation increases

unem&loyment#/ach a''itional 'ollar contri%ute' to a &olitical cam&aign

makes the &eo&le even more &o)erless


14/27

/sca&ing from 'iminishing returns

What can we do to avoid wasting our efforts on

perpetuating doomed systems? How do we construct

alternatives?

#o)er your official e&osure


15/27

"easona%le e&ectations

#Money )ill not %e very common or useful government'efaults, gro)ing @o%lessness, savings )i&e' out or tae'

a)ay, access to im&orts lost, etc!6#*s the U loses a%ility to im&ort ?


16/27

he Big ransition

B/-O"/

Cars an' trucks

Munici&al )ater su&&lies

Munici&al se)age

rash removal

$ar%age removal

-ast foo'

u&ermarkets.os&itals

.igh chools

Colleges

Office )ork

*-/"

Bicycles, %oats, 2 feet

"ain)ater collection, )ells

Com&osting toilets

ocal @unkyar's, incinerators

ocal com&ost &iles

Community kitchens

O&en9air marketsocal clinics

.ome chooling

*&&renticeshi&s

Physical la%or


17/27

he future is very un&o&ular

/ach resi'ent of +orth *merica em&loys the e>uivalent of 100

energy slaves services &rovi'e' %y machinery that runs onfossil fuels! But emanci&ation is at han':

#Peo&le 'o not like to %e &ersua'e' %y fact or logical argument

#Peo&le like their comforts cars, .A*C, etc!#Peo&le are se'uce' %y A, consumerism#Manual la%or an' farming are lo)9status activities#Peo&le lack the skills to lea' a non9mechaniJe' eistence#7t is almost im&ossi%le to convince &eo&le to 'o )hat )ill %e

necessary 9 until it %ecomes necessary#7t )ill %e almost im&ossi%le to 'o )hat is necessary )ithout a

significant amount of &re&aration#hose )ho take the trou%le to &re&are )ill %e a tiny minority


18/27

he Pre9Colla&se Checklist

#-oo'#8ater#helter#ighting an' communications#Me'ical care#rans&ortation#ecurity

hese have to %e &rovi'e'

#)ithout access to savings#)ithout a &ositive cash flo)#)ithout an official economy


19/27

-oo'

#/nough foo' to fee' a family can %e gro)n on 20009?000 s>!feet 7t takes a %it of &ractice to get this going!6#ome foo'stuffs cooking oil, grains, )ine, coffee, chocolate6

nee' to %e im&orte' someho)#* lot of )il' foo's can %e gathere' %erries, mushrooms,

roots K shoots, nuts, E)hiteF acorns#/'i%le -orest $ar'ens can %e &lante' on &u%lic lan's 9

useful &lants surroun'e' %y thorny thickets#Community kitchens are more efficient than &ersonal ones

#/liminate all foo' )aste chickens, ra%%its, guinea &igs, car&,catfish, crayfish 9 something out there )ill eat it all u&

#+anny goats can &rovi'e milk for infants


20/27

8ater#Munici&al )ater = %a' risk

#-lushing )ith &ota%le )ater = insanity:#Many gra'es 'rinking )ater, )ashing )ater, irrigation )ater,

gray )ater, lively )ater#e)age is a very %a' i'ea( com&osting much %etter#"oof rain)ater collection, %arrels, filters for 'rinking )ater#)ales 'ug into hillsi'es can %oost groun')ater#.ot )ater for )ashing rocket stoves fe' %y %rush &iles#Passive irrigation systems instea' of &um&s an' hoses#"unoff from 'isuse' &arking lots an' other structures can %e

save' in cisterns#-lat roofs can %e &lante' )ith so' to soak u& )ater an' kee&

%uil'ings cool#Pro&er &lacement of sha'e trees an' eva&oration &ools can

make air con'itioning unnecessary


21/27

helter

#ingle9family ')ellings are no longer affor'a%le for nuclearfamilies( single9family ')ellings %ecome eten'e'9family

$U*$s )here the resi'ents eventually go insane#here is a lot of unuse' commercial real estate that )ill

%elong to no%o'y in &articular once all &arties are %ankru&t

#here are a lot of unuse' shi&&ing containers that are veryeasy to customiJe for a )i'e variety of uses

#arge structures are chea&er an' easier to retrofit for off9gri'

use than small ones

#rans&ortation nee's are much re'uce' if the entire to)nrelocates into the sho&&ing mall an' the office &ark

#Basements of 'emolishe' su%ur%an houses can %e floo'e'

an' use' for a>uaculture, or for tree nurseries, etc!#-ree'9u& lan' can %e use' for community agriculture


22/27

ighting an' Communication

#"elying on the electric gri' 9 a high9risk, high9cost

&ro&osition!#Gee&ing the eisting system running through rene)a%le

means is not achieva%le, sustaina%le or rene)a%le

#Using )in'


23/27

Me'ical care

#tay healthy eat little, mostly vegeta%les, avoi' eercise, %ut

'o some &hysical la%or, slee& &lenty an' get lots of rest,

avoi' stress, have a sense of humor#*voi' 'octors an' hos&itals they &rescri%e toic 'rugs,

s&rea' 'isease an' 'e&lete family savings6#Gno) ho) to treat


24/27

Me'ical care 9 steer clear of frau'

#*voi' *merican me'ical care if at all &ossi%le#Making a &rofit off of sick &eo&le is 'ee&ly unethical#.ealth is not insura%le! 7f all houses %urne' 'o)n, there

)oul' %e no fire insurance! +o%o'y 'ies healthy!#"esist efforts to tie you to a @o% %y the threat of cutting off

your access to me'ical care#"esist efforts to force you or your family into me'ical

%ankru&tcy through me'ical etortion#ou have no choice of 'octor )ho isn;t an *merican 'octor

an' violates the .i&&ocratic oath %y &utting financial an'legal consi'erations ahea' of )hat;s goo' for the &atient

#*n' no), you have no choice %ut to %uy fe'erally man'ate'

&rivate health insurance


25/27

rans&ortation

#o reca& 2


26/27

ecurity

#One ha&&y family former military, former &risoners, former

&olice, former government s&ooks, &lus some 'rug lor's#*n online community is a hacker;s &laygroun'#/asy &ickings loners arme' or not6, &eo&le )ho can %e

tracke' using their $P cell &hones an' other giJmos

#.ar' nuts to crack cohesive communities that 'eal face toface an' are electronically 'ark

#.aving a lot of )itnesses a%out makes crime more 'ifficult#* 2I


27/27

7n conclusion

#Many &eo&le can;t %e &ersua'e' %y either fact or reason!

et;s ho&e you are not one of them!#"unning out the clock on our current living arrangement is a

%a' i'ea the longer you )ait, the fe)er o&tions you )ill %e

left )ith#* rather eciting time to %e alive, )oul'n;t you say

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