Brief on Food Security and Nutrition Conditions

Eastern and Central African Region

August 2012

FSNWGFood Security and Nutrition Working Group

Nairobi, 16th August 2012

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12 Stressed and Crisis food insecurity situation (IPC Phase 2 & 3) persists in the region.

Pockets of Emergency food insecurity (IPC Phase 4) also evident.

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KenyaNumber of people in need is likely to increase from 2.2 million to atleast 2.4 million as the lean season intensifies. Long RainsAssessment is on-going, the results will be ready in September.(KFSSG, 23 July 2012)

Severe conflict and displacements occurring in marginal croppingareas bordering eastern pastoral areas due to escalating resource-based conflicts as pastoralists invade farms. (FEWS NET, 16 Aug 2012)

According to July 2012 nutrition surveys, most of northern Kenyadistricts have experienced significant improvement in nutritionsituation compared to the June/July 2011. Turkana East, West,North and South all have reduced GAM & SAM rates. However, WajirSouth is still critical, GAM of 23.1% & SAM of 4.6%. The situation hasremained poor due to insecurity that impacted on nutrition activitiesin the area. (Unicef, 26 July 2012)

Somalia2012 Gu production is expected to be well below average in agropastoral areas of southern & centralSomalia due to poor April-June rains, leading to huge consumption gaps. (FEWS NET, 16 Aug 2012)

Nutrition situation among the IDPs and urban population in Mogadishu has improved considerably sinceJuly 2011. The progress is mainly attributed to the large-scale humanitarian interventions (feeding, healthand food security), decreased morbidity levels and improved food security indicators. (Joint Assessment, 19 July 2012)

Post-Gu Assessment is on-going. The IPC analysis results will be ready by end of August 2012 (FSNAU, July 2012).

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12 Sudan

According to the latest IPC analysis, about 4.4million people are food insecure (IPC Phases 3 & 4).(FSTS-IPC Analysis, 16 July 2012).

Areas in emergency food insecurity (IPC Phase 4)include North Darfur, Red Sea & Kassala states.Main causes are civil unrest, internal displacements,poor access to food and water. (FSTS-IPC Analysis, 16 July

2012).

Severe floods in eastern parts of Kassala State iscausing displacements and loss of livelihoods,including crops and livestock. (FEWS NET, 16 Aug 2012)

High malnutrition rates have been reported in RedSea (35% GAM), North Darfur (22.9% GAM) andBlue Nile (16.1% GAM). (FSTS-IPC Analysis, 16 July 2012).

South SudanEmergency food insecurity (IPC Phase 4) persists in the border states of Northern Bar El Ghazal, Unity,Warrap, Upper Nile and Jonglei States. (FEWS NET, 6 Aug 2012)

Harvesting of cereals going on in the bi-modal rainfall areas of Greater Equatoria (Western, Central &Eastern Equatoria states). In the uni-modal rainfall areas, crops are still at vegetative stage and harvest isexpected to start at the end of October. (FAO-GIEWS, 26 July 2012)

According to a July 2012 integrated nutrition & food security survey conducted in Yida refugee camp inUnity State, malnutrition and child mortality rates have risen to emergency levels (GAM of 21.8% & SAM of6.1 %). As a result of conflict in South Kordofan in Sudan, the Yida camp in Unity State of South Sudan nowhosts nearly 60,000 refugees, with 300‐500 new arrivals each day. (FEWS NET, 6 Aug 2012)

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12 Burundi

Crisis level food insecurity (IPC Phase 3) remains in the centralplateau and the eastern areas bordering Tanzania. 76,450households in need of special humanitarian assistance - supporton livelihoods access. (WFP & IPC/FAO, 4 Aug 2012)

Crop production of 2012B season crops, which contributes toabout half of annual food production, is 3% better than for2011B. Main constraints are low access to land and agriculturalinputs, plant diseases and erratic rainfall. (CFSAM/MoA, 25 July 2012)

Chronic malnutrition rates persist due to continued food deficits,among other factors. However, there has been a notable decreasein the admission numbers of malnourished children betweenJanuary 2011 & June 2012. (UNICEF, Aug 2012)

EthiopiaStressed & Crisis levels of food insecurity (IPC Phases 2 & 3) persist in the south & south east(Somali, Oromia & SNNPR regions) and in the north (Amhara & Afar) due to the delayed and below-average Feb-May Belg & Apr-June Gu rains. (FEWS NET, 16 Aug 2012)

However, the pastoral areas of southern Somalia, Oromia lowlands and SNNPR have reportedimproved livestock productivity due to good pastures. (FEWS NET, 16 Aug 2012)

The Belg 2012 Seasonal Assessment has been completed. The revised Humanitarian RequirementsDocument (HRD) to be released any time soon.

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Sources :

Djibouti: UNOCHA, 10 February 2012

Kenya: KFSSG (Short Rain Assessment, 12 March 2012)

Somalia: FSNAU, April 2012. The number of local population includes IDPs

Ethiopia: Humanitarian Requirements Document (HRD), Government of Ethiopia, November 2011

South Sudan: South Sudan Food Security Technical Secretariat, IPC analysis (20 April 2012)

Sudan: Sudan Food Security Technical Secretariat, IPC analysis (16 July 2012). *Provisional estimates, final figures to be released later.

Refugee figures : UNHCR , 30 June 2012

Over 17.5 million people in the region are still in need of humanitarian assistance (as of July 2012)

One year after the peak of the HoA Food Crisis that affected over 22 million people, lots of people are still in need of humanitarian assistance.

Country Local Somali refugees Other refugees Total

Djibouti 180,000 16,750 3,317 200,067

Kenya 2,200,000 532,394 91,479 2,823,873

Somalia 2,510,000 0 2,106 2,512,106

Ethiopia 3,244,575 206,573 130,356 3,581,504

South Sudan 3,733,422 0 203,587 3,937,009

Sudan 4,463,861* 0 0 4,463,861

Total 16,331,858 755,717 430,845 17,518,420

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12 Global food prices rose twice as fast as inflation in the last decade

According to a recent study by The Economist Intelligence Unit, the global food prices rosetwice as fast as inflation in the last decade. These trends point to a deeper and more lastingconcern of chronic food insecurity. (The Economist Intelligence Unit-EIU, July 2012)

Huge price swings for the staple foods (wheat, maize and rice) made matters worse,disrupting markets and harming both producers & consumers. (EIU, July 2012)

Sub-Saharan African countries are the most food insecure. Burundi, Chad and theDemocratic Republic of Congo (DRC) take the bottom three spots of the Global FoodSecurity Index (GFSI). (EIU, July 2012)

High oil & input prices, high production costs, climate change & variability suggests that highfood prices and price volatility will threaten global food security for at least the next decade.

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12 Global food prices increased sharply in July as lower yields are projected

According to the FAO Food Price Index, global foodprices rose sharply in July compared to their Junelevel due to a jump in the grain and sugar prices.The July surge of the Index followed 3 months ofdecline. (FAO-GIEWS, 9 Aug 2012)

Maize prices went up by 23% following lower yieldprospects for the 2012 maize crop which could beaffected by hot & dry weather conditions in themain producing areas in the United States. (FAO-GIEWS,

9 Aug 2012)

International prices of wheat rose by 19% in Julydue to lower production prospects occasioned bydry & hot weather in the Russian Federation andreduced spring 2012 crop planted in the US. (FAO-

GIEWS, 9 Aug 2012)

However, rice prices remained relativelyunchanged compared to June as the internationalsupplies remained high with low demand. (FAO-GIEWS,

9 Aug 2012)

Source: FAO-GIEWS (9 August2012)

Overall, the food prices remained higher than the 5-year

average prices but lower than last year’s prices.

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12 Regional food prices remained high in July as the world prices rose sharply

• Regional cereal prices continued to rise in July mainly because of low market supply in line

with seasonal trends and strong regional demand. (FAO-GIEWS, July 2012)

• In Tanzania, maize prices remain high despite the newly harvested “msimu” crops astraders are holding stocks in anticipation of a strong demand from neighbouring countries(especially Kenya). Some decline in maize prices is expected with the arrival on markets ofthe bulk of “masika” crops in August. (FAO-GIEWS, 13 July 2012)

• Maize prices in Kenya continued to rise as the lean season progresses. Prices are expectedto remain high until end of August when the newly harvested crops enter the market. (FAO-

GIEWS, 16 July 2012)

• Since mid-2011, cereal prices have registered an increasing trend in most markets,reaching record prices in June/July 2012. In July 2012, price increase of 180-220% forsorghum & maize in Juba. Next harvests in Sept when prices could drop. (FAO-GIEWS, 26 July 2012)

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End of July marks the middle of the season for the uni-modal rainfall areas in Sudan, SouthSudan, Djibouti and large parts of Ethiopia.

The overall performance of the June-September rainfall is positive, despite erratic onset insome areas like the Central Ethiopian Highlands

The previous season rainfall deficits remain a problem for the bi-modal areas such as largeparts of Somalia and Coastal Kenya.

Cumulated rainfall from 1st June to 31st July.

Difference from long term average( 1989 – 2011)

Source: JRC - TAMSAT

The seasonal June-September rainfall is performing well

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12 Rainfall importance for different parts of the region

Seasonal Rainfall Significance: Jun/Aug

Cropping & pasture areas in HoA

Uni-modal & Bi-modal rainfall areas in HoA

• The June-Sept rains are particularly important inSudan, South Sudan, western and northernEthiopia, northern Uganda, coastal areas ofSomalia and Kenya, as well as western Kenya(yellow areas of the Uni and bimodal rainfallmaps, except Tanzania).

• June-Sept rains less significant in red shadedareas on the map (contribute less than 10% ofannual rainfall).

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• Generally good vegetation conditions in Sudan and South Sudan, Northern Uganda,improving greenness over Ethiopian Highlands (more rain expected)

• The effects of the below average March-June rainy season remain clearly visible in EasternKenya, Southern Somalia and parts of Tanzania.

Good vegetation conditions in the region, but eastern parts affected by low March-June rains

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• Water satisfaction index for different vegetative stages of maize shows good vegetativeconditions in South Sudan, Uganda, Eastern and Central Ethiopia.

• The red-shaded areas in Eastern Kenya and Southern Somalia refer to the final stages of theMarch-June season.

Crop Model (Maize) – July 2012

Generally good maize crop development except eastern Kenya & southern Somalia

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12 Enhanced rainfall forecasted in Sudan, South Sudan and the Ethiopian highlands

• Rainfall forecasts for the uni-modal areas in the region for the period August – October aregenerally positive, mainly due to a new El Nino phase. More information will be provided bythe next GHACOF taking place on 29-31 of August.

• The 10 days forecast from ECMWF shows heavy rains continuing over large parts of Sudanand South Sudan as well as in the Ethiopian highlands.

• There is increased likelihood of flooding in eastern Sudan and northern Ethiopia.

Basin Excess Rainfall Map-Catchments (August, Dekad 1, 2012)Source: FEWS NET

Forecast Rainfall Anomalies (mm): Aug- Oct 2012 Source: ECMWF

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12 Regional Seasonal CalendarWhere we are now!

Note: This calendar is for illustrations only as it is not yet updated to reflect current changes in Sudan and South Sudan

Source: http://www.disasterriskreduction.net/east-central-africa/fsnwg

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Somalia• Poor households in lower Juba, Gedo, Bay, Lower Shabelle and Bakool regions are expected

to remain in Crisis food insecurity (IPC Phase 3) through the year.

• Crisis levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 3) will likely remain for pastoralists in thenorthwestern Guban and Coastal Deeh regions through December.

• Food security is likely to improve to Stressed levels (IPC Phase 2) for agropastoralists in thenorthwest, Middle Juba & Middle Shabelle following favorable production throughDecember. (FEWS NET, 16 Aug 2012)

Kenya• Crisis levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 3) from July-September could be reversed to

Stressed levels (IPC Phase 2) for pastoralist in the east & northeast; and marginalagricultural farm households in the southeast & Coastal lowlands. (FEWS NET, 16 Aug 2012)

• Livestock prices are likely to remain above average, in most areas except the southeasternpastoral zone. In the southeastern pastoral, livestock prices will likely decline due to poorbody conditions and low demand for these livestock. (FEWS NET, 23 July 2012)

Ethiopia• Pastoralists in the northern Somalia region and Afar anticipated to remain in Crisis food

insecurity (IPC Phase 3).

• Near total crop failure of root crop in SNNPR and a delayed Belg harvest will maintain households in the Crisis phase (IPC Phase 3) through the rest of the year.

• Belg-dependent areas in eastern Amhara, northeastern highlands & southeastern SNNPR are anticipated to remain in Crisis food insecurity (IPC Phase 3). (FEWS NET, 16 Aug 2012)

Regional Food Security Outlook

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Sudan• Crisis levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 3) will be sustained through September in the

SPLM-N controlled areas of South Kordofan, Blue Nile and most of Darfur throughSeptember.

• Improvements to Stressed levels (IPC Phase 2) are anticipated from October throughDecember, in most areas, after the crop harvests.

• GoS-controlled areas are expected to remain in Stressed food insecurity (IPC Phase 2)through December. (FEWS NET, 16 Aug 2012)

South Sudan• Crisis levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 3) are anticipated to remain in border areas of

Northern Bar El Ghazal, Unity, Warrap, Upper Nile and Abyei, through December.

• However, improvements to Stressed levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 2) areanticipated in most of Jonglei and Northern Bar El Ghazal and eastern parts of WesternBar El Ghazal. (FEWS NET, 16 Aug 2012)

Burundi• The overall food security conditions are expected to improve in the coming months as

the bulk of the newly harvested crops begin to reach the main markets. (FAO-GIEWS, 25 July

2012)

• Food deficits will remain critical in the areas of concern towards the end of the year asthe crop production from season 2012 B is anticipated to last for only 3-4 months. (FAO,

Aug 2012)

Regional Food Security Outlook…

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12 Schedule of FSNWG monthly meetings in 2012

Month Meeting day and date

January Thursday, 19th January 2012

February Thursday, 16th February 2012

March Thursday, 15th March 2012

April Thursday, 19th April 2012

May Thursday, 17th May 2012

June Thursday, 21st June 2012

July Thursday, 19th July 2012

August Thursday, 16th August 2012

September Thursday, 20th September 2012

October Thursday, 18th October 2012

November Thursday, 15th November 2012

December Thursday, 20th December 2012

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http://www.disasterriskreduction.net/east-central-africa/en/