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Breakout Session IV - CC&E Contributions Towards Analyzing Impacts and Consequences
of Global Change
Modeling Challenges and
Forecasting Impacts
Co-Chairs: S. Doney1, C. Vörösmarty2,3
1Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution2University of New Hampshire3As of 1 September: City College of New York/CUNY
Breakout on Modeling/ForecastingCo-Chairs: S. Doney, C. Vörösmarty
Original Core Questions:
• What research can we conduct to better address the impacts and consequences of global change?
• What actions would be most useful to or supportive of future assessments?
• What are the greatest challenges and opportunities (relevant to the breakout topic)?
New Demands on Earth System Science
• Global Policy on Climate Change
• Security Challenges
–Infrastructure at Risk
–Food Security
–Energy Security
–Water security
–Economic development
• Public Need for Accurate Information
Agent-based models
Science-driven sensor & technology development
Observation networks
Change detection
Computationally intensivelandscape models
High resolution Earth System simulations
Complex Information Streams
Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Roadmap
T
2002 2010 2012 2014 20152004
Reduced flux uncertainties; global carbon dynamics
Funded
Unfunded
Global Ocean Carbon / Particle Abundance
N. America’s carbon budget quantified
Global Atmospheric CO2 (OCO)
2006 2008
Reduced flux uncertainties; coastal carbon dynamics
NA Carbon NA Carbon Global C Cycle
T = Technology development
Regional carbon sources/sinks quantified for planet
IPCC IPCC
Effects of tropical deforestation quantified; uncertaintiesin tropical carbon source reduced
= Field Campaign
Physiology & Functional Types
Go
als:
Glo
bal
pro
du
ctiv
ity
and
lan
d c
ove
r ch
ang
e at
fin
e re
solu
tio
n;
bio
mas
s an
d c
arb
on
flu
xes
qu
anti
fied
; u
sefu
l ec
olo
gic
al f
ore
cast
s an
d im
pro
ved
clim
ate
chan
ge
pro
ject
ion
s
Vegetation 3-D Structure, Biomass, & Disturbance T Terrestrial carbon stocks &
species habitat characterized
Models w/improved ecosystem functions
High-Resolution Atmospheric CO2 Sub-regional sources/sinks
Integrated global analyses
CH4 sources characterized and quantified
Report
P
Vegetation (AVHRR, MODIS)
Ocean Color (SeaWiFS, MODIS)
Land Cover (Landsat) LDCM Land Cover (OLI)
Vegetation, Fire (AVHRR, MODIS) Ocean/Land (VIIRS/NPP) Ocean/Land (VIIRS/NPOESS)
Models & Computing Capacity
Case Studies
Process UnderstandingImprovements:
Human-Ecosystems-Climate Interactions (Model-Data Fusion, Assimilation); Global Air-Sea Flux
T
Partnership
N. American Carbon Program
Land Use Change in Amazonia
Global CH4; Wetlands, Flooding & Permafrost
Global C Cycle
Kn
ow
led
ge
Bas
e
2002: Global productivity and land cover resolution coarse; Large uncertainties in biomass, fluxes, disturbance, and coastal events
Systematic Observations
Process controls; errors in sink reduced
Coastal Carbon
Southern Ocean Carbon Program, Air-Sea CO2 Flux
0° 60° 120° 180° 240° 300° 360°
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
0° 60° 120° 180° 240° 300° 360°Longitude Longitude
Coverage or Quality
GoodPoor
Yea
r
Observations• Spatially/temporally patchy
• Quality: High to Low• Challenging to explain in aggregate
SYSTEMIC UNDERSTANDING
1900-50
Paleo
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
Paleo
1900-50
INDUCTIVE PATHSpecific to General
DEDUCTIVE PATH General to Specific
Modeled Outputs• Spatially/temporally contiguous
• Physically-consistent but incomplete• Gap-filling
SYNERGY BETWEEN OBSERVATIONS AND MODELED OUTPUTS
From: Hall & O’Connell (2007), Proc. Inst. Civ.E., Original from IPCC
Evolution of GCMsinto ESMs
Policy and Decision Support Modeling
The Day Has Arrived Where We Need to Think of Regional Carbon Inventories and Regional Ecosystem Management
Well-Intended Ooops! • Decisions being made by non-scientists on an Earth system that includes biogeophysics and humans • Failure of ESS knowledge to be conveyed • A ‘learning moment’?? For us: forecast user needs
For the rest: no silver bullets
Google search: 29 April 2008
Breakout on Modeling/ForecastingCo-Chairs: S. Doney, C. Vörösmarty
• Are NASA research results adequately informing the assessment process? (e.g. IPCC-FAR, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, ACIA)
• If so….job done!• If not, what is the strategy forward:
– Droning on re: “we need more data”, “we need better models”?
OR….. – New ways of thinking through
•Different ideas on the use of data? ID high impact data?•Different classes of models?•Different target audiences? (e.g. private sector, media vs just other scientists)•Other approaches