Brazil How to Revitalize Infrastructure Investments in How to Revitalize Infrastructure Investments

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  • January 10, 2007

    Document of the World Bank

    Report No. 36624-BR

    Brazil How to Revitalize Infrastructure Investments in Brazil Public Policies for Better Private Participation

    (In Two Volumes) Volume I: Main Report

    Finance, Private Sector and Infrastructure Management Unit Latin America and the Caribbean Region

  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

    This report was prepared by Paul0 Correa, Luis Albert0 Andres, Mariam Dayoub, Katherine S. Coleman (World Bank) and Rodrigo Moita (University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign), with inputs from Marianne Fay and Tito Yepes (Chapter 3); Maria Elena Pinglo (Chapter 4); Aymeric-Albin Meyer, Carlos Velez, Jayme Port0 Carreiro, Luiz Maurer, Gar0 Batmanian, and Raffaella Mota (Chapter 5); under the supervision of Susan Goldmark and JosC Luis Guasch.

    Background papers were commissioned to Caio Mario (FGV-SP); Claudio Considera (UFF); Cleveland Prates (FGV-SP); Marcel0 Neri (FGV-RJ); and Ronald0 Seroa da Motta (IPEA). Comments provided by Aymeric-Albin Meyer, Carlos Velez, Luiz Maurer, Jose Guilherme Reis, Angela Furtado, and Marianne Fay to an earlier draft of the document were greatly appreciated.

    The analytical underpinnings of this report are based on the work done at regional level by M. Fay and M. Morrison (Chapter 1); L. Serven and C. Calderh (Chapter 3); L.A. Andres, S. Sirtaine, M.E. Pinglo, J.L. Guasch, and V. Foster (Chapter 4); and J.L. Guasch (Chapter 6).

    PPIAF support to the background paper (Chapter 7) “Regulatory Governance in Infrastructure Industries - Assessment and Measurement of Brazilian Regulators,” PPIAF Occasional Paper No. 3, prepared by P. Correa, C. Pereira (MSU), B. Muller (UNB) and M. Mello (UFPE), i s also acknowledged.

    Armando Castelar Pinheiro (IPEA); Clive G. Harris (SASEI, World Bank); JosC Clfiudio Linhares (IADB); and Mark Roland Thomas (World Bank, PRMED) were the peer reviewers for the study.

    The report consolidates three years of non-lending technical assistance work provided by the World Bank to the Brazilian Government. Parts of the report or preliminary versions of the chapters were discussed in different occasions with country authorities, including the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Planning, the Civil Cabinet, and the Tribunal de Contas de UniLio.

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  • How to Revitalize Infrastructure Investments in Brazil: Public Policies for Better Private Participation

    Table of Contents

    Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................................... 3 Acronyms and Abbreviations ........................................................................................................... 2

    Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... 5 Main Report .......................................................................................................................... 15 I . Infrastructure and Growth in Brazil: Taking Stock o f the Situation ........................................... 16

    A . Where D o We Stand? ........................................................................................................ 16 B . The Fall in Infrastructure Investments and i t s Causes ....................................................... 17 C . Does Brazil Need More Infrastructure Investment? .......................................................... 22 D . Private Participation in Infrastructure ............................................................................... -25

    I1 . How to Revitalize Infrastructure Investments in Brazil ............................................................ 29 A . The Legal and Policy Framework ...................................................................................... 30 B . Contract Renegotiation ...................................................................................................... 35 C . Regulatory Governance ..................................................................................................... 40

    I11 . Policy Recommendations., ....................................................................................................... 43

    List of Tables

    Table l a . Change in educational performance associated with access to infrastructure in S2o Paulo state (in percent) .......................................................................................................... 24

    Table l b . Results for difference in percentage for scenarios with good housing conditions in relation to those with bad housing conditions in S2o Paulo state (in percent) ................................................................................................... 27

    Table 2 . Brazil: summary o f the effects o f privatization on the performance o f utility companies ............................................................................................................................................... 28

    Table 3 . Summary o f the main sector issues .................................................................................. 37 Table 5 . Brazil: party that initiated the renegotiation for transportation and water sectors ........... 39 List of Figures

    Figure 1 . Brazil: share o f population with infrastructure services per income deciles (%). 1991 and 2000 ................................................................................................................................ 18

    Figure 2 . Investments in infrastructure in Brazil: total, public, and private (percent of GDP), Figure 3 . Public sector investment in infrastructure (percent of GDP), 1995-2002 ....................... 21 Figure 4 . Brazil: primary surplus and public investment in infrastructure (percent o f GDP),199 8-

    2002 ....................................................................................................................................... 21 Figure 5 . Returns on infrastructure concessions in Brazil ............................................................ -26 Figure 6 . Regulatory governance, effectiveness and industry performance ................................. -42

    1980-2001 .............................................................................................................................. 19

    List of Boxes

    Box 1 . “Buying Credibility” through Partial Risk Guarantees (PRG) against Regulatory Risk .... 45 Box 2 . The Quality o f Public Expenditures ................................................................................... 46

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  • H O W TO REVITALIZE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS IN BRAZIL: PUBLIC POLICIES FOR BETTER PRIVATE PARTICIPATION

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    1. More than US$164 bi l l ion was invested in infrastructure projects that involved private participation in Brazi l during 1994-2004. This amount corresponds to more than two-thirds o f the total spending on private infrastructure projects in the East Asia and Pacific region. Despite the high level o f investment, public opinion shows frustration wi th private provision o f infrastructure services and policymakers are disillusioned with private financing o f infrastructure projects. This i s not a phenomenon unique to Brazil: governments throughout Latin America and multilateral organizations that once supported privatization are discussing how to increase public investments in infrastructure. The policymaking pendulum has swung back to public provision.

    2. Amid a shifting policymaking environment, this report discusses how public policies could attract more and better private investments. Given Brazil’s current fiscal dilemmas and infrastructure needs, revitalizing infrastructure investments in the next coming years w i l l require bringing back the private sector. Brazil can transform infrastructure needs into private opportunities essentially by reducing the cost of capital and raising long-term returns of concessions, translating infrastructure opportunities into projects wi th competitive rates o f return. This requires curbing regulatory risk and raising projects’ revenues, two tasks for which the role o f the public sector i s central: governments are ultimately responsible for regulatory risks, and through tariff policies, subsidies and related mechanisms can, directly or indirectly, influence projects’ revenues.

    3. In attracting back private capital, t h i s report argues that Brazi l needs to (a) eliminate remaining regulatory bottlenecks and policy uncertainties in selected sectors, (b) design infrastructure concessions to avoid “excessive” renegotiations, simultaneously guaranteeing an adequate rate o f return for investors and protecting consumers’ welfare, and (c) strengthen the quality of the regulators for technically sound and coherent decision-making processes. In addition, Brazi l should improve the process through which public investments in infrastructure are selected, implemented and evaluated. In a nutshell, Brazil should avoid the simplistic solution of swinging the pendulum back to public financing and forge public policies to attract more and better private participation. The main messages and pol icy recommendations o f this report are detailed below.

    M a i n Messages

    4. Infrastructure investments fell mainly due to the collapse of the institutional framework of the 1970s and not due to sector reforms. Infrastructure investments in Brazil plunged dramatically in the 1980s and 199Os, a decline twice as large as that of the