EDUCATION IN AN ERA OF

CONTRACTING RESOURCES

BOCES Educational Consortium

SHARED CHALLENGES

“There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.” ~HL Mencken “The Divine Afflatus” (1917)

MOREOVER, EDUCATION PAYS!

http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_chart_001.htm

YET RECESSIONS LAST LONGER…

1981 1990 2001

2007 ???

28 Months

31 Months

46 Months

$61.7

$75.9

$55.5 $60.9

$0.0

$10.0

$20.0

$30.0

$40.0

$50.0

$60.0

$70.0

$80.0

$90.0

20

10

-11

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

20

13

-14

20

14

-15

20

15

-16

20

16

-17

$ B

illio

ns

Current Cost Trends Projected Revenue

$15 billion deficit

in 4 years

AND CAPS CUT REVENUE FOR EDUCATION

Source: NYSED

EngageNY.org

“So things are gonna be bad …

… but, who’s got it worse?”

STATEWIDE DATA

HIGHEST TAXES IN US

Source: Tax Foundation http://www.taxfoundation.org/news/show/27282.html

HIGHEST TAXES IN US - % OF HOME VALUE

Source: Tax Foundation http://www.taxfoundation.org/news/show/27282.html

HIGHEST TAXES IN US - % OF INCOME

Source: Tax Foundation http://www.taxfoundation.org/news/show/27282.html

“Does State education aid

help make things fairer?”

SCHOOL AID DATA

PER PUPIL AID CUTS 2010-2012

$(1,125)

$(1,428)

$(575)

$(2,000)

$(1,500)

$(1,000)

$(500)

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

Poor Below Average Wealthy

Cuts (2010-

11 & 2011-

12)

Source: Empire Center as quoted in http://www.lohud.com/article/20111116/NEWS05/111160349/-

1/7daysarchives/Report-State-s-aid-cuts-were-heavier-poorer-school-districts

PER PUPIL AID INCREASES/CUTS 2007-2012

$2,192

$1,159

$486

$(1,125)

$(1,428)

$(575)

$(2,000)

$(1,500)

$(1,000)

$(500)

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

Poor Below Average Wealthy

Increases

(2007-08 &

2008-09)

Cuts (2010-

11 & 2011-

12)

Source: Empire Center as quoted in http://www.lohud.com/article/20111116/NEWS05/111160349/-

1/7daysarchives/Report-State-s-aid-cuts-were-heavier-poorer-school-districts

STATE AID PER PUPIL – REGIONAL COSTS

$-

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

North Country

Southern Tier

Mohawk Valley

Western New York

Finger Lakes

Central New York

State Average

Capital Region

Mid-Hudson Valley

New York City

Long Island

Lower Hudson Valley

STATE AID PER PUPIL – REGIONAL COSTS

$-

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

2009-10 Aid per pupil

Regionally Adjusted

STATE VS LOCAL SHARE

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Aid as % of 2009-10 Expenditures

REVENUES BY SOURCE 2009-10

10

,57

0

1,4

69

2,8

90

14

,89

1

21

,29

2

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 NYC 9 10

Local Revenue 2009-10

Federal Aid 2009-10

STAR 2009-10

Total State Aid 2009-10

LOCAL REVENUE IS ALREADY REDISTRIBUTED

Tax

Revenues School Aid

Tax

Revenues School Aid

1996-97 2008-09

ROS 29.8% 48.0% 24.6% 44.1%

NYC 38.3% 35.4% 44.1% 39.2%

Lower Hudson 11.2% 4.1% 11.6% 4.3%

Long Island 20.7% 12.5% 19.7% 12.5%

24.6% 44.1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

100%

LONG ISLAND CONTEXT

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Nassau County Population by Age

2000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Nassau County Population by Age

2000

2003

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Nassau County Population by Age

2000

2003

2006

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Nassau County Population by Age

2000

2003

2006

2009

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Nassau County Population by Age

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

ENROLLMENT DROPPING

93,561 85,231 83,129

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Nassau County Enrollments

K-5

6-8

9-12

(-8.9%)

(Estimates)

Source: WS BOCES Projections (through 2012, NB projections after)

(-11.2%)

STATEWIDE ENROLLMENT 2001-2 2008-9

0.0%

-0.8%

0.2%

-0.4%

0.0%

-1.1%

-1.2%

-1.3%

-1.5%

-1.3%

-1.3%

-0.7%

-2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5%

Long Island

New York City

Lower Hudson Valley

Mid-Hudson Valley

Capital Region

Mohawk Valley

Central New York

North Country

Southern Tier

Finger Lakes

Western New York

Total State

Source: NYS Council of School Superintendents analysis

SOME SCHOOLS ARE CLOSING

0.3%

3.0%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

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Change in Number of School Buildings - 2000 to 2010

30 Largest Counties in NYS

“Prime Earners”

LOST “Early Career

Earners”

GAINED

INCOME LOSS VS. STATE AVERAGE & LOWER HUDSON

The Long Island Regional Economy

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1996 2007 1996 2007

Property Value per Pupil Income per Pupil

Perc

en

t A

bo

ve S

tate

Avera

ge

Long Island

Lower Hudson Valley 27% lower

In 12 years, Long

Island’s income dropped

from 38% above the

state average to just

11% above.

Economic Downturn:

LONG ISLAND EDUCATION IMPACT

Unreserved Fund Balance / Total Expenditure

(general fund only) 16.40% 13.70% 13.40% 11.70% 10.80% 10.30% 9.00% 8.70% 8.70% 8.50%Percent with Unreserved Fund Balance < 5% of

General Fund Expenditures 0.00% 2.50% 3.60% 7.20% 7.90% 8.20% 10.10% 11.60% 11.60% 12.20%

Liquidity (Current Assets / Current Liabilities) 7 6.1 5.3 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.1 4.1 4 3.5

Percent with Liquidity Ratio Less Than 1.5 1.00% 1.30% 1.80% 2.70% 2.90% 3.20% 3.50% 7.20% 7.30% 8.20%

General Fund Expend Per Pupil (2010) $16,905 $17,217 $17,314 $17,434 $18,205 $18,278 $18,828 $19,082 $21,765 $22,163

Average Annual Change in Expend (2008 to 2010) 1.80% 1.80% 1.90% 2.50% 2.50% 2.60% 2.60% 2.70% 2.90% 3.00%Percentage Point Change in Unreserved Fund

Balance as a % of Expend (2008 to 2010) 5.90% 5.40% 3.60% 3.10% 3.10% 3.00% 3.00% 2.10% 1.80% 1.70%Percentage of Districts with Decrease in UFB as a %

of Expend 9.10% 9.60% 9.80% 20.40% 20.50% 22.50% 23.20% 25.30% 26.10% 27.40%

Debt Service as a % of Expend. 4.30% 5.90% 8.50% 8.60% 9.00% 9.30% 9.60% 10.20% 10.40% 12.20%

Building Aid as a % of Expend. 10.10% 10.00% 9.60% 9.40% 8.40% 8.40% 7.20% 7.00% 2.70% 2.30%Effective Debt Burden (Debt Service/exp - Bldg

Aid/Exp) -0.30% 0.40% 0.50% 0.80% 1.20% 1.40% 1.50% 2.00% 2.10% 3.10%

Effective Debt Per Pupil ($59) $58 $147 $154 $204 $317 $319 $405 $451 $736

Total Debt as a % of Full Value 1.00% 1.30% 2.50% 3.30% 3.90% 4.20% 4.40% 4.60% 4.60% 5.50%

Property Tax Rev / AGI 3.90% 4.40% 4.50% 4.70% 4.90% 5.10% 5.20% 5.80% 6.10% 6.20%% of Districts in Which Property Taxes Exceed 7% of

Income 2.10% 2.90% 3.80% 7.30% 9.60% 15.10% 18.20% 18.80% 25.30% 32.30%

Average State and Federal Aid / Total Revenue 24.20% 24.60% 44.50% 46.40% 54.40% 54.90% 58.40% 60.20% 60.50% 61.80%

Median Full Value Per Pupil 2010 $1,024,799 $1,023,937 $613,442 $513,991 $443,191 $384,161 $344,136 $342,890 $333,857 $322,814

Average Full Value Change 2009 to 2010 5.80% 5.50% 4.00% 3.80% 3.50% 3.30% 2.80% 1.70% -3.10% -4.70%

% of Districts with Full Value Loss from 2008 to 2009 0.00% 1.40% 2.00% 2.40% 3.60% 5.80% 7.50% 21.40% 42.10% 82.30%

% of Districts with Full Value Loss from 2009 to 2010 5.50% 5.80% 7.50% 8.20% 9.60% 12.20% 34.80% 35.10% 87.40% 87.50%Percentage of Pupils Eligible for Free or Reduced

Priced Lunch (2010) 21.20% 24.20% 34.30% 35.60% 36.60% 37.80% 41.30% 43.70% 47.60% 48.10%Percentage of Pupils with Limited English

Proficiency -2009 0.40% 0.60% 0.70% 0.90% 1.00% 1.10% 1.30% 2.50% 4.40% 5.60%

Fiscal Stress Indicators – Long Island Districts (Source: OSC)

6

5

11

LI EDUCATION 2011-12 STAFF ELIMINATED/EXCESSED

(N = 114 DISTRICTS) Eliminated/

Excessed Total Positions

Eliminated Total Staff Excessed

All Districts Teacher(s)

Administrator(s)

Other

935/519

103/36

417/218 1,455 773

Low Wealth

School Districts

(CWR < 1.000)

Teacher(s)

Administrator(s)

Other

385/272

32/14

138/64 555 350

Middle Wealth

School Districts

(CWR btwn 1.000- 2.000)

Teacher(s)

Administrator(s)

Other

287/84

36/11

160/54 483 149

Wealthiest

School Districts

(CWR > 2.000)

Teacher(s)

Administrator(s)

Other

257/158

33/9

114/96 404 263

(Other: T. Assts., T. Aides, Clerical, Custodial, Maintenance)

Note: Data for Little Flower, New Suffolk, Wainscott, not included in wealth group breakdown.

Source: LIEC Budget Impact Survey 2011-12 (preliminary results as of 9/19/11)

LI EDUCATION 2011-12 WHAT WE’VE LOST – WHO LOST WHAT

(N = 114 DISTRICTS)

Percentage of Districts Reducing Each Program/Activity by more than 10%

BOCES CTE

Opportunities AP Courses

H.S. Electives Alternative Education

Low Wealth School Districts

(CWR < 1.000) 33% 21% 31% 20%

Middle Wealth School Districts

(CWR btwn 1.000- 2.000) 7% 0% 6% 3%

Wealthiest School Districts

(CWR > 2.000) 0% 0% 6% 0%

Source: LIEC Budget Impact Survey 2011-12 (preliminary results as of 9/19/11)

Everyone’s in trouble.

Or rather, the tax cap makes

everything unsustainable.

TAX CAP IMPACT

SALARY COST INFLATION > TAX CAP

Average Annual increase in Median Salary 2001-2008 Number of

Percentile 5th 25th 50th 75th 95th Teachers

1 Year 2.5% 4.7% 4.4% 3.7% 4.6%

2 Years 2.8% 5.1% 4.7% 4.8% 4.6%

3 Years 3.0% 5.2% 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% 49,612

4 Years 2.9% 4.7% 5.2% 5.1% 4.4%

5 Years 3.1% 4.3% 5.1% 5.0% 4.1%

6 Years 3.2% 3.9% 4.7% 4.8% 4.2%

7 Years 3.2% 3.3% 4.2% 4.7% 4.1%

8 Years 3.5% 3.2% 4.5% 4.4% 4.0% 47,853

9 Years 3.5% 3.4% 4.8% 4.8% 4.1%

10 Years 3.7% 3.3% 5.0% 5.1% 4.3%

11-15 Years 3.5% 3.2% 4.8% 5.3% 4.1% 32,812

16-20 Years 3.4% 3.1% 4.4% 4.1% 3.7% 23,883

21-25 Years 3.2% 3.1% 4.1% 4.6% 3.7% 20,792

26-30 Years 2.3% 2.4% 3.1% 3.5% 3.5% 15,095

31-35 Years 1.6% 1.7% 3.1% 3.2% 3.5% 9,392

36-40 Years 0.1% 2.3% 3.9% 1.4% 3.3% 4,106

Over 40 Years 4.1% 2.1% 3.9% 1.5% 3.5% 1,018

}}

IMPACT OF THE TAX CAP

SCENARIO A (FLAT AID)

$ / % Required

Budget Cut

Allowable Budget

Growth

Low Wealth School Districts

(CWR <1.000)

$53,824,255

(-1.4%) 1.1%

Middle Wealth School Districts

(CWR btwn. 1.000-2.000)

$47,167,466

(-0.9%) 1.5%

Wealthiest School Districts

(CWR >2.000)

$16,333,827

(-0.7%) 1.8%

Sources:

2011-12 Legislative Budget State Aid includes Building Aid

2011-12 NYSED Property Tax Report Card

Assumptions: 2.5 % rollover, same fund balance applied, 2% cap

REGENTS STATE AID PROPOSAL

Consolidate aids:

High Tax Aid,

Academic Enhancement

Aid, and

Supp. Excess Cost Aid

Create new High Tax Aid

Expand Pre-K

Continue Mandate

Relief

Change

Reimbursements

Building Aid:

Eliminate Selected BAR

Eliminate Incentive

Transportation Aid

Eliminate AR choice

“Strategically target aid”

BOCES Aid

Eliminate AR choice