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1 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
BNEF’s Electric Vehicle Outlook
The Electric Vehicle Outlook is BloombergNEF’s annual long-term forecast for road
transport. It looks at how electrification, shared mobility, autonomous driving and
other trends will impact transport from today to 2040.
Segments:
• Light duty passenger vehicles
• Shared mobility fleets
• Commercial vehicles
• Buses
• Two/three-wheeled vehicles
Impacts:
• Automotive sales and fleet
• Oil markets
• Electricity markets
• Infrastructure
• Battery metals and materials
• Emissions
2 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
1. Covid-19: EV sales drop in 2020 but hold up better than combustion vehicles and rebound
faster
10 findings from EVO 2020
3 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
Source: BloombergNEF
Covid-19: passenger EV sales holding up better than internal combustion vehicle sales
Region Country Internal combustion passenger car sales Passenger electric vehicles sales
APAC China -45% -60%
Japan -10% -17%
S. Korea -7% +26%
AMER U.S. -13% +5%
EMEA Germany -25% +148%
U.K. -34% +127%
France -39% +123%
Italy -36% +100%
The Netherlands -13% +22%
Sweden -25% +87%
Norway -42% +4%
Year-on-year change in vehicles sales, 1Q 2020
Drop - more than 50% Drop - less than 50%
Rise - more than 50% Rise - less than 50%
4 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
0.71.3 1.6 1.3
1.9
2.9
3.9
0.4
0.60.5
0.4
0.7
1.1
1.6
0.71.1
1.92.1
1.7
2.6
4.0
5.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Million
Plug-in hybrid Battery electric
Source: BlombergNEF. Note: Based on Covid-19 Scenario 2.
Covid-19: Updated short-term passenger EV sales forecast
Global passenger EV sales forecast by type
EV share of global
sales in 2023: 7%
5 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
● Government stimulus: Priorities, politics, and trade-offs
● Consumer attitudes: To public transit, ride hailing, and private car ownership
● Automaker strategies: What to restart when?
● Covid-19 and urban air quality: clean air push?
Covid-19: Open questions
6 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
Source: BBC
● Government stimulus: Priorities, politics, and trade-offs
● Consumer attitudes: To public transit, ride hailing, and private car ownership
● Automaker strategies: What to restart first?
● Covid-19 and urban air quality: clean air push?
Open questions
7 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
1. Covid-19: EV sales drop in 2020 but hold up better than combustion vehicles and rebound
faster
2. Two tipping points: EV price parity and infrastructure slowdown
10 findings from EVO 2020
8 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
Source: BNEF
1: EV price parity: By mid-2020s for most segments
Two tipping points
2: Infrastructure slowdown: In mid-2030s for most countries
9 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
Source: BNEF
Sales Fleet
Two tipping points
0
20
40
60
80
100
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Million
Internalcombustion
Fuel cell
Plug-inHybrid
BatteryElectric 0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Billion
Batteryelectric
Plug-inhybrid
Fuel cell
Internalcombustion
EV share of global
sales in 2040 58%EV share of global fleet
in 2040 31%
Global passenger vehicles by drivetrain
10 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
Source: BNEF, Marklines
The lessons from the Nordics?
EV share of Norwegian passenger vehicle sales
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
EV share of new sales
Many years to get to 10%
5 years to go from from 10% to +50%
11 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
1. Covid-19: EV sales drop in 2020 but hold up better than combustion vehicles and rebound
faster
2. Two tipping points: EV price parity and infrastructure slowdown
3. China and Europe pull further ahead of the U.S.
10 findings from EVO 2020
12 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
Source: BNEF. Includes battery electrics and plug-in hybrids
China and Europe pull further ahead of the U.S.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2015 2020 2025 2030
%
China
Europe
U.S.
S. Korea
Japan
Global
RoW
India
EV share of new passenger vehicle sales
Europe and China
share of global EV
market in 2030:72%
13 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
Source: BNEF, European Commission
EU policy is driving EV adoption
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
gCO2/km
Historicalemissions
Target
Historical and target average vehicle CO2 emissions in Europe
14 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
Source: BNEF, Marklines. Shaded region shows the range of EV market share needed to hit EU CO2 targets in the given year.
EU policy is driving EV adoption
EV share of sales needed to hit EU automotive CO2 emissions targets
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
EV share of new vehicle sales
PHEV
BEV
15 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
Source: BloombergNEF U.S. Census Bureau, 2018.
……But the U.S. catches up in the 2030s
8.7%
33.0%
37.3%
21.0%
~120 million U.S.
households
No vehicle
1 vehicle
2 vehicles
3 or morevehicles
Cars per U.S. household
16 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
1. Covid-19: EV sales drop in 2020 but hold up better than combustion vehicles and rebound
faster
2. Two tipping points: EV price parity and infrastructure slowdown
3. China and Europe pull further ahead of the U.S.
4. Several ‘killer apps’ for electrification are emerging for the 2020s
10 findings from EVO 2020
17 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
Source: BNEF
Several ‘killer apps’ for electrification are emerging for the 2020s
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
2015 2017 2019
Million
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
2015 2017 2019
Million
0
80
160
240
320
2015 2017 2019
Million
JapanChina Europe U.S. S.Korea RoW
Commercial vehicles Buses Two-wheelers
Current fleet of electric:
18 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
Source: BNEF
Several ‘killer apps’ for electrification are emerging for the 2020s
Commercial vehicles Buses Two-wheelers
<0.5% 16% 20%
Tipping point: Next 2-3 years Reached Reached
Current EV
fleet share:
19 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
1. Covid-19: EV sales drop in 2020 but hold up better than combustion vehicles and rebound
faster
2. Two tipping points: EV price parity and infrastructure slowdown
3. China and Europe pull further ahead of the U.S.
4. Several ‘killer apps’ for electrification are emerging for the 2020s
5. Overall passenger vehicle sales peak in 2036. Internal combustion vehicle sales have
already peaked
10 findings from EVO 2020
20 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
Source: BloombergNEF
Demand for mobility keeps rising….
Global annual kilometers travelled by the passenger vehicle fleet by region
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
RoW
India
U.S.
Europe
China
Trillion kilometers
21 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
Source: BloombergNEF
…but vehicle sales peak
0
20
40
60
80
100
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
RoW
India
U.S.
Europe
China
Million
0
20
40
60
80
100
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Robotaxis
Sharedvehicles
Privatevehicles
Million
Global annual passenger vehicle sales by region Global annual passenger vehicle sales by type
22 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
Source: BloombergNEF, United Nations, World Bank. Note: Country income groups come from the World Bank.
Why do vehicle sales peak?
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
RoW (33%)
India (19%)
Global (17%)
Australia (16%)
U.S. (4%)
U.K. (3%)
S. Korea (0%)
China (-8%)
Germany (-12%)
Japan (-16%)
100 = 2020 levels
Growth in population of 16-59 year olds
100
110
120
130
140
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
India (+33%)
China (+24%)
Global (+15%)
S. Korea (+12%)
U.S. (+5%)
U.K. (+5%)
Germany (+5%)
Australia (+4%)
Japan (+2%)
100 = 2020 levels
Growth in urbanization
23 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
Source: BloombergNEF
Total passenger vehicle sales peak in 2036 Combustion vehicles sales have already peaked
0
20
40
60
80
100
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Million
Internalcombustion
Fuel cell
Plug-inhybrid
Batteryelectric
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
%
Electric
Internalcombustion
Fuel cell
Global annual passenger vehicle sales by
drivetrain
Global share of total annual passenger vehicle sales
by drivetrain
24 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
1. Covid-19: EV sales drop in 2020 but hold up better than combustion vehicles and rebound
faster
2. Two tipping points: EV price parity and infrastructure slowdown
3. China and Europe pull further ahead of the U.S.
4. Several ‘killer apps’ for electrification are emerging for the 2020s
5. Overall passenger vehicle sales peak in 2036. Internal combustion vehicle sales have
already peaked
6. Fuel cell vehicle sales have an impact on some commercial segments in the 2030s
10 findings from EVO 2020
25 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
Fuel cell vehicle sales have an impact on some commercial segments in the 2030sLight commercial FCV sales Medium commercial FCV sales Heavy commercial FCV sales
FCV share of light commercial fleet FCV share of medium commercial fleet FCV share of heavy commercial fleet
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Thousand
Rest of World
India
South Korea
Japan
U.S.
Europe
China0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Thousand
Rest of World
Japan
India
S. Korea
Europe
U.S.
China0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Thousand
Rest of World
India
South Korea
Japan
U.S.
Europe
China
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
%
S. Korea
U.S.
Japan
Europe
China
RoW
India
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
%
China
South Korea
U.S.
Europe
Japan
Rest of World
India0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Share of fleet
Japan
South Korea
Europe
China
U.S.
Rest of World
India
26 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
1. Covid-19: EV sales drop in 2020 but hold up better than combustion vehicles and rebound
faster
2. Two tipping points: EV price parity and infrastructure slowdown
3. China and Europe pull further ahead of the U.S.
4. Several ‘killer apps’ for electrification are emerging for the 2020s
5. Overall passenger vehicle sales peak in 2036. Internal combustion vehicle sales have
already peaked
6. Fuel cell vehicle sales have an impact on some commercial segments in the 2030s
7. Adoption of new EV battery chemistries accelerates, costs continue to drop
10 findings from EVO 2020
27 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
1. Covid-19: EV sales drop in 2020 but hold up better than combustion vehicles and rebound
faster
2. Two tipping points: EV price parity and infrastructure slowdown
3. China and Europe pull further ahead of the U.S.
4. Several ‘killer apps’ for electrification are emerging for the 2020s
5. Overall passenger vehicle sales peak in 2036. Internal combustion vehicle sales have
already peaked
6. Fuel cell vehicle sales have an impact on some commercial segments in the 2030s
7. Adoption of new EV battery chemistries accelerates, costs continue to drop
8. Much more charging infrastructure needed, but most is at home/work
10 findings from EVO 2020
28 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Public includes Tesla destination and supercharger network even though this is semi-private.
Current public charging connectors installed globally
Much more charging infrastructure needed, but most is at home/work
49141
214300
516
70
94
149
202
255
31
44
48
61
72
73 96131
185
317
456
628
927
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Thousand
RoW
Japan
U.S.
Europe
China
Public charging:
Today: 1 million connectors
By 2040: 12 million needed
29 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
1. Covid-19: EV sales drop in 2020 but hold up better than combustion vehicles and rebound
faster
2. Two tipping points: EV price parity and infrastructure slowdown
3. China and Europe pull further ahead of the U.S.
4. Several ‘killer apps’ for electrification are emerging for the 2020s
5. Overall passenger vehicle sales peak in 2036. Internal combustion vehicle sales have
already peaked
6. Fuel cell vehicle sales have an impact on some commercial segments in the 2030s
7. Adoption of new EV battery chemistries accelerates, costs continue to drop
8. Much more charging infrastructure needed, but most is at home/work
9. Oil demand from passenger vehicles has already peaked
10 findings from EVO 2020
30 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
Source: IEA, BNEF. Note: Includes biofuels. Advancements include fuel efficiency improvements and alternative drivetrains.
Passenger vehicle oil demand has already peaked.Overall oil demand from road transport peaks in 2031
0
10
20
30
40
2019 2025 2030 2035 2040
Million barrels per day
ImprovedefficiencyEV penetration
Shared mobilityEVO 2020 trajectory
Trajectory without advancements
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2019 2025 2030 2035 2040
Million barrels per day
RoW
Australia
S. Korea
India
Japan
Europe
China
U.S.
Passenger vehicle oil demand
forecast
Oil demand avoided by privately owned electric and
fuel cell passenger vehicles, and shared mobility
31 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
Source: BNEF. Note: Uses general electricity demand projections from BNEF’s June 24, 2019 “New Energy Outlook 2019” research note. Electric vehicle electricity
demand includes demand from passenger EVs, commercial EVs, e-buses (municipal and non-municipal) and electric two-wheelers. Rest of World includes Australia
and other rest of world. Percentages refer to the increases in electricity demand caused by EVs in 2030 and 2040.
Impact on electricity demand is limited
3% 7%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
TWh
2% 10%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
TWh
2% 9%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
TWh
China Europe U.S.
020,000
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040General electricity demand Electric vehicle electricity demand
Electricity demand with and without EVs
32 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
Source: BNEF. Note: Light commercial EVs are considered within home and public infrastructure. 11kW hardware is assumed to encompass 7-22kW chargers.
The EV load profile gets flatter as more segments electrify
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
% of electricity demand
E-buses
Heavy commercial
Medium commercial
Light commercial
Robotaxi
Shared passenger
Private passenger
24-hour electricity demand by EV segment in 2035 based on "dumb" charging curves
33 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
1. Covid-19: EV sales drop in 2020 but hold up better than combustion vehicles and rebound
faster
2. Two tipping points: EV price parity and infrastructure slowdown
3. China and Europe pull further ahead of the U.S.
4. Several ‘killer apps’ for electrification are emerging for the 2020s
5. Overall passenger vehicle sales peak in 2036. Internal combustion vehicle sales have
already peaked
6. Fuel cell vehicle sales have an impact on some commercial segments in the 2030s
7. Adoption of new EV battery chemistries accelerates, costs continue to drop
8. Much more charging infrastructure needed, but most is at home/work
9. Oil demand from passenger vehicles has already peaked
10. Emissions are still not on track
10 findings from EVO 2020
34 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
Source: BNEF. Includes power sector emissions from EVs
Emissions are still not on track
-50% 0% 50% 100%
India
RoW
China
Australia
Japan
South Korea
Europe
U.S.
%
0
2
4
6
8
10
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GtCO2
Emissionsavoided byEVs and fuelcell vehicles
Roadtransportemissions
Growth in road transport CO2 emissions by
country, 2018-2040
Road transport emissions avoided by the penetration of
electric and fuel cell vehicles
35 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
1. Covid-19: EV sales drop in 2020 but hold up better than combustion vehicles and rebound
faster
2. Two tipping points: EV price parity and infrastructure slowdown
3. China and Europe pull further ahead of the U.S.
4. Several ‘killer apps’ for electrification are emerging for the 2020s
5. Overall passenger vehicle sales peak in 2036. Internal combustion vehicle sales have
already peaked
6. Fuel cell vehicle sales have an impact on some commercial segments in the 2030s
7. Adoption of new EV battery chemistries accelerates, costs continue to drop
8. Much more charging infrastructure needed, but most is at home/work
9. Oil demand from passenger vehicles has already peaked
10. Emissions are still not on track
10 findings from EVO 2020
36 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
● Charging infrastructure business models
● Aggregation, grid integration and forecasting tools
● New mobility business models
● Marine: electric and hydrogen applications
● Other?
Opportunities in transformation
Where are the opportunities for the market leaders?
37 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
Thank you
38 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch
Copyright
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