Birmingham’s Climate Portfolio Climate... · Birmingham exhibits less of an extreme range, perhaps moderated by its urban influence (Figure 3). Birmingham had a mean daily temperature

Birmingham’s Climate Portfolio


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Contents

Page 1.0 Introduction: Baseline Climate of the West Midlands 1.1 Temperature 1.2 Precipitation 2.0 Significant weather events 3.0 Climate Change 3.1 Scenarios and Probabilities 3.2 Climate Projections for Birmingham 3.3 Risks to Birmingham 4.0 Urban Heat Island (UHI) of Birmingham 5.0 Impacts 5.1 Energy impacts 5.2 Health Impacts 6.0 Opportunities from Climate Change 7.0 Mitigation/Adaptation 8.0 Reference

2 3 4 6 7 9

10 12 14 17 17 17 19 19 20


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1.0 Introduction: Baseline Climate of the West Midlands

The UK experiences a great variety of air masses both in origin and trajectory (Chandler and Gregory,

1976). These can be broadly classified into the following categories: Maritime Polar, Maritime

Tropical, Continental Tropical, Continental Polar, Maritime Artic and Returning Polar Maritime. The

UK experiences a predominantly westerly air mass influence, bringing depressions with their

associated wind and rain. Thus the UK is classified as having a temperate maritime climate. Generally

the UK experiences milder winters and cooler summers than continental Europe.

Shifting air masses are what gives the UK its transient climate. Gregory (1976) classified the UK

regions into groups based on their length of growing season and rainfall (both magnitude and

seasonality). The Midlands is assigned ‘BD2’ which translates to:

A growing season of 7-8 months.

A probability greater than 0.3 of annual rainfall being below 750mm.

Rainfall predominantly falling in the winter half of the year.

Gregory (1976) compares the climate of the Midlands to that of north eastern coastal areas,

Shropshire, Lincoln and around Dublin. The prevailing air mass is essentially what controls the

climatology of the Midlands. Influencing this and leading to air mass modification is the landlocked

nature of the Midlands, the topography and the urban conurbations.

The Midlands has arguably one of the longest and best kept meteorological records in the UK. As far

back as 1733 Thomas Barker created a weather journal backed by early instrumentation. For

Birmingham the Lunar Society commenced weather observations in April 1793 (Giles and Kings,

1997). Various other organisations continued measurements for Birmingham through the 19th and

20th Century with data collection for the city now located at the Winterbourne station (University of

Birmingham). Collectively this gives over a 200 year temperature and rainfall series for Birmingham.

Figure 1 Characteristics of Air Masses across the UK (Met Office Fact Sheet 10, 2010)


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The Birmingham temperature series contains more data (mean maximum, mean minimum, mean

monthly, highest maximum and lowest minimum) compared with the central England temperature

series (mean monthly only) (Giles and Kings, 1996). The rainfall series also consists of frequency of

precipitation which other series have not captured.

Figure 2 Location of climate stations in the Midlands (Met Office, 2010)

Birmingham is located on top of the Midlands Plateau, an area 100 – 250m above sea level, made

predominantly of sedimentary rocks (English Nature, 2005). Of the West Midlands, 70% of the land is

agricultural. Urbanization in the region has been focused mainly upon the Birmingham plateau

(Anderson et al., 2003).

1.1 Temperature

Due to the inland location of the Midlands, temperatures are more continental and are governed by

the prevailing air mass (Figure 1) and the radiation balance. This gives the Midlands a large annual

range in temperatures with observed lows of -26.1oC at Newport on 10th January 1982 and highs of

37.1oC at Cheltenham on 3rd August 1990 (Giles and Kings, 1997). The low temperature at Newport

still stands as the lowest ever measured temperature in the UK. Temperatures were only recently


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recorded higher than Cheltenham for the UK during the heat wave of August 2003 when Faversham,

Kent recorded 38.5oC (Met Office, 2010). Birmingham exhibits less of an extreme range, perhaps

moderated by its urban influence (Figure 3). Birmingham had a mean daily temperature of 9.4oC

(1961-1990) which has now risen to 10oC (1991-2007).

Temperature (oC) Date

Lowest minimum -13.6 8th February 1895

Highest minimum 20.4 5th August 1975

Lowest maximum -6.5 12th January 1987

Highest maximum 34.8 3rd August 1990 Figure 3 Winterbourne daily temperature extremes (1881-2006) (CARG, University of Birmingham)

1.2 Precipitation

The average annual precipitation for the Midlands ranges between 600 and 850mm. The driest areas

in the midlands are found in the lower lying areas to the east. The maximum totals are found on high

ground such as the Peak District and the Welsh borders (Giles and Kings, 1997). The Welsh

mountains also act as a rain shadow over much of the West Midlands resulting in rainfall totals that

are less than areas of equivalent altitude to the north or south. Birmingham, located on a plateau

(100-300m) in the centre of the Midlands acts to increase rainfall totals compared with the

comparative surrounding dryness.

Figure 4 Mean monthly temperature, decade normals (Data from Birmingham Temperature Series, Giles and Kings 1996)


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There is a tendency for a winter bias in precipitation. Summer rainfall falls over a fewer number of

days but with a greater intensity. Birmingham has an average precipitation 767mm (1961-1990).

However it must be noted that rainfall has increased to an average annual of 821mm in later years

(1991-2007) (LCLIP, 2008).

Figure 6 Precipitation distribution in the Midlands (Met Office, 2010)

Figure 5 Birmingham Rainfall Series, decade normals (Data from Giles and Kings 1996)


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2.0 Significant weather events

A significant weather event can be broadly defined as ‘an event that is rare within its statistical

reference distribution at a particular place,’ (IPCC, 2007). The definition of a significant weather

event will vary from place to place and can be defined by magnitude, rarity, return period, impact

and loss. Note extreme impacts / losses are not always due to the most extreme weather. The

World Meteorological Organisation (WMO, 2004) defines significant weather to be:

‘a hazardous meteorological or hydro-meteorological phenomenon, of varying but short duration

(minutes, hours, days to a couple of weeks) and of varying geographical extent, with risk of causing

major damage, serious social disruption and loss of human life, requiring measures for minimizing

loss, mitigation and avoidance, and requiring detailed information about the phenomenon (location,

area or region affected, time, duration, intensity and evolution) to be distributed as soon as possible

to the responsible authorities and to the public.”

Throughout the years Birmingham has been susceptible to weather events ranging from floods to

tornadoes. A study over the past decade, Birmingham’s Local Climate Impacts Profile (LCLIP, 2008)

set out to find the most significant events. A ranking system was derived using the weather intensity,

impacts and return period. Over the period 1998-2008, 81 significant weather events were found in

Birmingham. 16 events found in Birmingham were -5 or -6 (Figure 7) and 31 events were C or D

(Figure 8).

Significant Weather Scale Return Period

Good 2 Monthly

Fine 1 Weekly

Average 0 Daily

Poor -1 Weekly

Bad -2 Monthly

Adverse -3 Seasonal

Severe -4 Annual

Extreme -5 Decades

Catastrophic -6 Centuries

Figure 7 Scale of return of significant weather (LCLIP, 2009)


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Figure 8 Scale of impacts of significant weather

The LCLIP study found the number of significant weather events to increase from 1998. However this

can be considered subjective as analyses is based on reported events within the media. Heavy rain

and flooding were found to cause the most problems for Birmingham followed by thunderstorms

then snow and ice.

The most notable impacts over the last 10 years for Birmingham have been a Tornado in July 2005, a

heat wave in July 2006 and flooding in summer 2007. The Birmingham tornado was estimated to

cause both £50 million damage (LCLIP, 2008) and injure 19 people, 3 seriously.

3.0 Climate Change

In order to prepare for the likeliness of extreme weather returning the future climate of Birmingham

needs to be explored. The UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) model predicts a 5.2oC temperature rise

in the summer daily maximum temperature for the West Midlands by 2080 using a medium

emissions scenario. This will put the population of the West Midlands above the threshold zone for

human comfort and health. Annual precipitation is not expected to change. However the

distribution will shift, with wetter winters and drier summers, with potential increased risk of

flooding and water shortages respectively.

A Warnings issued by organisations (e.g. Police, AA and Environment Agency).

B Disruption to services, with perhaps some additional warnings issued.

C Disruption to services and structural damage - natural and built environment.

D

Disruption to services, structural damage - natural and built environment and injury/death to

individual(s).

Figure 9 Number of significant weather events reported per year (LCLIP, 2008)


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“The scientific evidence is now overwhelming: climate change presents very serious global risks,

and it demands an urgent global response”

Sir Nicholas Stern, 'The Stern Review' on economics of climate change, October 2006

Since the industrial revolution CO2 concentrations have risen from ~280ppm to ~390ppm (parts per

million) currently. Between 1995 and 2005 atmospheric CO2 rose by 19ppm, the highest decadal rise

since measurements began.

The forcing component through increased amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from

anthropogenic emissions far outweighs any natural changes, for example solar irradiance. When

examining the difference in climate scenarios with and without anthropogenic forcing since the

industrial revolution, it is clear of the impact this has on temperatures.

Black line = Actual Temperature

anomaly

Red Line = Temperature anomaly

with Natural and Anthropogenic

Forcing

Blue Line = Temperature anomaly

with Natural Forcing Only

Figure 10 Greenhouse gas concentrations from 0 to 2005 (IPCC, 2007)

Figure 11 Difference in temperatures since 1900 with and without anthropogenic forcing (IPCC, 2007)


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Climate change is now widely accepted as one of the greatest challenges of the 21st Century. If

climate change is not addressed, it is estimated that the cost to the world’s economy will be greater

than the 20th Century world wars and the Great Depression of the 1930’s combined. The Stern

Report (2006) estimates that taking action now would cost 1% of global gross domestic product

where as acting in the future would cost anywhere between 5 and 20%.

In order to adapt Birmingham to climate change it is important to understand what the likely

predictions are. These need to be interpreted with a prior lay knowledge of the local area

highlighted in the LCLIP report mentioned above. By doing this, the knowledge of climate change will

become more applied to Birmingham and provide a more practical means of adapting.

3.1 Scenarios and Probabilities

The UKCP09 uses three emissions scenarios – low, medium and high which are developed on the

IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, 2000). The emissions associated with the

scenarios are based on demographic, social, economic and rate and development of technological

change. Based on the current socio-economic situation it is agreed that the world emissions are

currently equivalent to a medium to high emissions scenario. The low emissions scenario

demonstrates what emissions could be if more sustainable energy usage and mitigating policies to

climate change were adopted. If all emissions were stopped today there would still be a 0.6oC

warming from a lag effect.

Example of Socio-Economic areas covered for UPCP09 emission scenarios (UKCIP, 2001)

- Values and Policy - Economic Development - Settlement and Planning - Agriculture - Water - Biodiversity - Coastal Zone Management - Built Environment

A1F1 – High Emissions Scenario Very rapid economic growth, a global population that peaks in mid–21st Century and thereafter declines. The scenario also envisages increased cultural and social interaction, with a convergence of regional per capita income. Focuses on the idea that there will be extensive fossil fuel use with little use of renewable energy sources.

A1B – Medium Emissions Scenario A balance emphasis on all energy sources – where balanced is defined as not relying too heavily on one particular energy source, on the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to all energy supply and end use technologies.

B1 – Low Emissions Scenario The same population dynamics as A1, but a transition toward service and information


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economies, with lower material consumption and widespread introduction of clean and efficient technologies.

For each emission scenario there is a range of probabilities. ‘The probabilities are a measure of the

degree to which a particular level of future climate change is consistent with the evidence

considered,’ (UKCP09). By using cumulative probabilities, this enables predictions giving a range of

values which decrease in likelihood from the central estimate:

- Very likely to be greater than/ very unlikely to be less than (lower estimated limit) = 10% - Central Estimate = 50% - Very likely to be less than/very unlikely to be greater than (upper estimated limit)= 90%

For example, under a medium emissions scenario, temperature change on the warmest day of

summer 2060 is likely to be 2.5oC (central estimate). The temperature change is unlikely to be less

than -1.5oC (10%) and more than 6.5oC higher (90%).

The climate change variables: mean, maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity and cloud cover were calculated for the three emissions scenarios and probability levels. It must be noted that humidity and cloud cover predictions have large amounts of uncertainty in the findings, so they are not presented here.

3.2 Climate Projections for Birmingham

The user interface on the UKCP09 climate projections website (http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk) provides

estimates to a 25km2 resolution.

Temperature – The annual average temperature in Birmingham has increased by 0.6oC , from 9.4oC

(1961 – 1999) and 10oC (1991 – 2007). This rise in temperature for Birmingham also relates to a

warming trend found in the Central England Temperature series (CET, Figure 12).

The UKCP09 projections show that Birmingham will experience hotter summers and milder winters. This is highlighted for the three emission scenarios and for the range between the 10% and 90% probabilities in Figure 13.

Figure 12 CET Annual Temperature Series 1971 - 2009

http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk/


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Precipitation - The annual mean rainfall for Birmingham has already increased by 53mm from

767mm, 1961-1990 to 821mm, 1991-2007. Precipitation patterns are expected to shift in the 21st

Century, with winter months experiencing greater mean totals whilst summer will become drier. By

2020 winter precipitation is could increase by up to 14.5% (90% probability level). However annual

precipitation totals are not expected to change much from current levels.

2030 2050 2080

Probability (%) 10 50 90 10 50 90 10 50 90

Mean summer

temperature (°C)

16 17 18.5 16 17.5 19.5 16.5 18 20

16 17 18.5 16.5 18 20 17 19 21

16 17 19 16.5 18 21 17 20 22.5

Change on hottest day (°C) -1.5 2 6 -1.5 2.5 7.5 -2 2.5 8

-1.5 2 6 -1.5 2.5 7.5 -2 3 9.5

-1.5 2.5 6.5 -1.5 3.5 9 -1.5 4 12 Change in summer mean

maximum temperature

(°C)

1 2 4 1 3 5.5 1 4 7

1 2.5 4.5 1 3.5 6 2 5 9

1 2.5 4.5 1.5 4 7 3 6 11

Change in mean winter

temp (°C)

4.5 5.25 6.25 4.5 5.5 6.5 5 6 7.5

4.5 5.25 6.25 5 6 7 5 6.5 8

4.5 5.25 6.25 5.5 6 7.5 6 7 8.5

Figure 13 Temperature Change in Birmingham

Key

Low emissions

Medium emissions

High emissions

Figure 14 Precipitation change in Birmingham

2030 2050 2080

Probability (%) 10 50 90 10 50 90 10 50 90

Mean winter precipitation

change

-2 7.5 19.5 1 12 26 3 16 35

-2 8.5 21 2 15 31 3 19.5 44

-1 8.5 21 2 16.5 35 6 26 57 Winter %change in

precipitation on the

wettest day

-8 8 26 -6 9 26 -4 13.5 28

-6.5 6.5 21 -4.5 10 27 -3.5 15 33

-9.5 4.5 20 -4.5 11 30 -1 19.5 35

Mean summer

precipitation change %

-24 -12 12 -33 -12 13 -34 -13 11

-27 -8 12 -36 -17 7 -43 -20 5

-27 -7 11 -38 -17 7 -50 -25 5 Summer %change in

precipitation on the

wettest day

-14 2.5 24.5 -16 2 24 -16 -1 25

-14 2.5 24 -18 0.5 23 -18 -1 25

-16 1.5 21.5 -18 0.5 24 -20 -3 29


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Summary of likely changes for Birmingham

• Summer mean temperature rise of 2.8oC (Low emissions scenario) to 4.7oC (High) by 2080.

• Summer mean daily maximum will rise by 3.9oC (Low) to 6.6oC (High) by 2080.

• August 2003 heat wave will be a typical summer towards the end of the century.

• Precipitation totals will remain constant. However a shift in seasonality towards a winter

bias is expected.

• Summer precipitation will happen over fewer days but will become more intense.

3.3 Risks to Birmingham

A transient climate, with a shifting mean and variance (distribution) will force the climate of

Birmingham towards the extremes. What climate change projections provide us with is the long-

term average. However on a day to day basis, the weather is likely to show a much greater

distribution in the number and magnitude of significant weather events. The significant weather

events that have already affected Birmingham, above, are likely to become a more recurrent

feature, with increased severity towards the end of the Century.


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Heatwaves for Birmingham are defined as two consecutive days over 30oC with night time

temperatures not falling below 14oC. The resilience to heatwaves varies throughout the UK (Figure

16).

Threshold temperatures

Region Day max (°C) Night min (°C)

North East England 28 15

North West England 30 15

Yorkshire & Humber 29 15

East Midlands 30 15

West Midlands 30 15

East of England 30 15

South East England 31 16

London 32 18

South West England 30 15

Wales 30 15

Figure 16 Threshold temperatures for the UK based on regions (Met Office, 2010, http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/heathealth/ )

By the 2080s Birmingham could have an average of 3 heatwaves during July and 2 during August

(medium emissions). Under a high emissions scenario this will rise to 4 and 3 respectively. These

heatwaves are also likely to become longer and more severe throughout the 21st Century. This could

result in an 11% increase in all cause mortality in summers as a result of higher temperatures by

2080 Elderly and already vulnerable residents will be particularly at risk. The rise in temperatures

could also Increase the number of ozone pollution episodes. It is estimated there will be 53% more

deaths by the 2020s than 2003 (Health Effects of Climate Change in the West Midlands, 2010). The

increase in summer temperatures combined with a decrease in summer precipitation could lead to

the increase in number of droughts and their duration.

An increase in precipitation in winter will lead to more flooding. However whilst summer precipitation totals will decrease, when precipitation does occur, it is likely to be more intense thus rising the risk of surface flooding. The return period of significant rainfall events is likely to decrease. Flooding causes both damage to properties, loss of life and psychological stress to those affected. Other affects of climate change include secondary impacts such as high temperatures triggering storms and changes in air quality are expected. It is also important to consider that global issues will affect Birmingham. For example supply chains will be affected and Birmingham could become a hub for refugees fleeing from conflict or displacement arising from climate change. A shift in precipitation patterns will lead to more frequent winter flooding for Birmingham. Reduced

summer precipitation combined with an expected rise in temperatures will lead to an increase of

heat waves and droughts. The magnitude of the events is also likely to increase and secondary

impacts of these changes such as high temperatures triggering storms and changes in air quality

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/heathealth/


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expected to occur. This will put increasing pressure on both the population and local services to

manage.

4.0 Urban Heat Island (UHI) of Birmingham

The layer of atmosphere between the Earth’s surface and the top of the buildings is the area in

which people live and work. This is known as the urban canopy layer and much like a mountainous

environment has its own climate. Urban areas in essence modify the climate through un-natural

modifications to the environment. The urban fabric modifies temperatures, precipitation run-off and

wind flows. The resulting consequence is coined the urban heat island (UHI). The physical processes

responsible for this effect whereby urban areas are significantly warmer than the surrounding rural

areas are highlighted as following.

UHI Causes (Oke, 1987; Grimmond, 2007)

Reduced sky view factor (SVF)

Decrease in long wave radiation loss: radiation trapping

Slower wind speeds

Decrease in total turbulent heat loss Building materials

Thermal properties: increased heat capacities and conductivities

Radiative properties: albedo and emissivity changes Anthropogenic heat flux

Energy consumption and resulting heat from buildings, vehicles and people Air Pollution

Absorption and re-emission of long-wave radiation in the air Lack of Vegetation

Decreased evapotranspiration: less cooling from latent heat flux Increased surface area

Higher short-wave absorption

Thus urbanisation has lead to the modification of the surface and atmospheric energy budgets

across vast areas of the Earth’s surface. The effect of the built environment alters the radiative,

thermal, moisture and thermodynamic balances (Oke, 1987). At present over half the worlds

population live in urban areas and with a predicted urbanised population of 5 billion by 2030

Figure 17 UHI Transect showing the typical temperature profile across a city (Oke, 1987)


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(UN,2010) this makes quantifying the urban heat island a pressing issue. Birmingham, UK (52oN,

1.5oW) has a population exceeding one million over an area of 267 km2 at an altitude of around

140m. It has a well defined urban heat island, yet has not been properly investigated since the

1980s.

Unwin (1980) compared daily maximum and minimum temperatures at two sites: Edgbaston,

representative of the city and Elmdon of rural areas. Over the study period (1965-74) Edgbaston

was found to be 0.27k warmer than Elmdon. However on analyses, the mean maximum was cooler

at Edgbaston and the overall heat island effect was due to a significantly higher (1.02K) night time

minimum at Edgbaston (Figure 18). These suggest a day time cool island across Birmingham.

Edgbaston (City) Elmdon (Rural) UHI Intensity (Tu-r)

Overall mean 9.49 9.22 0.27

Mean Maximum 12.41 12.90 -0.49

Mean minimum 6.56 5.54 1.02 Figure 18 Mean Temperatures (

oC) in Birmingham 1965-74 (Unwin, 1980)

Unwin (1980) recorded a maximum UHI intensity of 10oC. The largest UHI intensity was found during

the spring and autumn. The city was found to be on average 0.59k cooler than rural areas during the

summer. To investigate Birmingham’s UHI further Unwin (1980) classified the temperature

differences based on Lamb’s (1950) airflow types. Unwin (1980) found anticyclonic conditions to give

rise to an average 2.26k difference in the mean minimum temperatures (Figure 19). Cyclonic

conditions were found to have the least pronounced UHI effect in the mean minimum temperatures.

The maximum day time cool island was found under unsettled westerly and cyclonic conditions.

Airflow type Occurrence (%) UHI intensity of mean minimum

UHI intensity of mean maximum

Anticyclonic 18.4 2.26 -0.23

Unclassified 5.3 1.39 -0.42

South-east 3.1 1.32 -0.41

Southerly 5.8 1.14 -0.44

Northerly 8.5 0.84 -0.53

Westerly 22.3 0.67 -0.61

South-west 3.9 0.67 -0.58

North-west 7.8 0.63 -0.62

Easterly 7.4 0.63 -0.41

North-east 2.8 0.51 -0.44

Cyclonic 14.7 0.49 -0.61 Figure 19 Occurrence of Lamb’s air flow type and their associated UHI

Unwin (1980) also analysed the distribution of UHI events. It was found that for Birmingham, urban

heat islands were predominantly in the summer half of the year. On analysing the strongest heat

islands that developed in the study period, 71% of these were associated with anticyclonic

conditions.

Johnson (1985) adopted a different strategy to Unwin (1980) through investigating the heating and

cooling rates of the UHI. Johnson (1985) states the rationale for this being the exact time that the

urban and rural surfaces display different characteristics can be established. By traversing a 20km

route across the city centre using a psychrometer attached to a car roof over 8 sample days in July


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1982. As the UHI is most pronounced under anticyclonic (calm, clear sky) conditions, only when

these prevailed did measurements take place. To compliment the study thermograph records from

Edgbaton and Elmdon were also used to calculate heating/cooling rates.

Johnson (1985) found that range of heating/cooling rates decreased with proximity to the city

centre. Strong temporal variations were found with the greatest heating/cooling rates at

sunrise/sunset. There was also a large variation in rates at the rural/urban boundary and between

different rural surfaces.

The UHI intensity for Birmingham was found to grow early afternoon and remain a fairly constant

4.5k throughout the night. Johnson (1985) found the centre of Birmingham to be on average 0.1k

warmer than the rural areas. However Unwin (1980) found the city centre to exhibit an urban cool

island. It must be noted that the Edgbaston site used by Unwin (1980) is approximately two miles

out of the city centre and the Elmdon site is situated next to Birmingham international airport. Thus

the two sites used by Unwin (1980) cannot be considered truly representative of urban/rural

characteristics.

Johnson (1985) also started some early work into the relationship between the sky view factor (SVF)

and the maximum cooling rates. Johnson (1985) found that the cooling rates decreased with a

decrease in SVF (r = -0.83). Thus Birmingham was found to heat up and cool down slower than the

surrounding rural areas.

Figure 20 Top: UHI Intensity. Bottom: average heating / cooling rates for urban and rural Birmingham.


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5.0 Impacts

Potential Impacts of Climate Change in the West Midlands (Anderson et al. 2003)

The capability of Birmingham’s urban drainage system to increased Winter precipitation and flooding

Increased risk of building subsidence

Increased demand for summer irrigation systems due to decreased summer rainfall

Reduction in agricultural yields due to summer droughts

Increased energy demand for cooling (section 6.1) and transport to cooler areas

Increase in storm frequency

Increase demand for rural living (Rural areas in the West Midlands population increased by 20% and urban areas declined by 5.7% (1993 – 2003)

Tarmac melting / railways buckling

5.1 Energy impacts

Hadley et al. (2006) studied the impacts of energy change in the USA in response to climate change.

A general circulation model (GCM) was coupled with an energy use model for a low (1.2oc) and high

(3.4oC) temperature scenario for 2025 in response to atmospheric CO2 doubling. Hadley et al. (2006)

found the most relevant impact to be changes in heating/cooling requirements in residential and

commercial buildings. Cooling is less efficient than heating thus Hadley et al. (2006) state the offset

in reduced winter heating due to climate change is more than outweighed by the increase in

summer energy demands for cooling. Hadley et al. (2006) also state the increased electricity

production from fossil fuels to cope with the increased demands would increase carbon emissions.

5.2 Health Impacts

Tol (2002) states that for every 1oC rise in temperature 350,000 worldwide could die from

cardiovascular and respiratory problems. The summer 2003 heat wave across West Europe claimed

an estimated 35,000 lives. The UK Office for National Statistics estimates there were 2045 deaths

above the national average for England and Wales between the 4th and 13th August. Stedman (2004)

using a dose-response function analysed the August 2003 heat wave finding 21 – 38% of the

associated deaths to be caused by increased atmospheric loadings of ozone (Figure 24) and PM10.

The problem lies that unlike any other significant weather event, heat is not treated as an

atmospheric hazard. Heat and the influence of the UHI have impacts for the wellbeing of the young,

old (Figure 23) and those already with underlying illnesses. It also affects residents, especially those

of lower income in old, high density housing which have little or no surrounding vegetation (Coutts

et al. 2008).

The UHI of Birmingham is likely to exacerbate future heat waves. Tan et al. (2010) found the UHI of

Shanghai, China to create additional heat wave days that were not found in surrounding rural areas.


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How climate change affects human health (Tol, 2002)

Heat stress mortality

Detrimental air quality

Floods and storms

Water supply and agriculture

Influencing vectors of infectious disease (e.g. malaria)

Air pollution is a major environmental risk to health. Exposure to air pollutants is mainly beyond the

control of individuals thus requires action at higher levels. Unfavorable air quality is estimated to

cause around 2 millions premature deaths worldwide per year (WHO, 2003). Within cities there is

considerable risk from exposure to pollutants, particularly ozone and particulate matter. Reducing

PM10 concentrations from 70 to 20ugm-3 has been shown to reduce air quality related deaths by

15% (WHO, 2003)

Climate plays an influence on air quality. Temperatures affect reaction rates and natural emissions.

The amount of precipitation affects deposition rates and wind speeds affect the horizontal

dispersion. As a consequence of warming, more windows will be open to allow for ventilation, thus

indoor concentrations of pollutants will become higher.

Figure 21 Average annual heat-related deaths by age for the US: 1979 -1999 (Rate - per million people) (CDC, 2002)


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Figure 22 Distribution of ozone using 76 monitoring stations on 6th August 2003 (Lee et al. 2006). High pressure, low wind speeds and sustained high temperatures lead to ozone concentrations greater than 110ppbV (220 ugm

-3) for a five day period within the heat wave period. The maximum daily 8 hour mean

for ozone set out by the EU directive: 2008/50/EC (and 2002/3/EC) is 120 ugm-3

.

6.0 Opportunities from Climate Change

Potential Opportunities of Climate Change in the West Midlands (Anderson et al. 2003)

Longer growing season

Solar power feasibility

Reduced snow/ice damage, reducing amount of grit used

Less heating required in winter

Decrease in winter deaths

7.0 Mitigation/Adaptation

Various strategies into reducing the impact of the UHI have been put forward. These are available on

a range of different scales from individual to neighbourhood and new development to retrofitting

existing buildings (Grimmond, 2007). In order to adapt and ensure the appropriate strategy is used

the UHI of Birmingham needs to be understood and modelled. The strategies outlined as following

should alter the surface energy balance (section 6.0) of the urban environment and reduced the UHI

effect. Akbari et al. (2001) estimate that through a large-scale implementation of mitigation

measures, 20% of the US energy demand for cooling could be saved.


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Current strategies to UHI Mitigation/Adaptation

Increase albedo of buildings: new development in highly reflective materials mean buildings do not necessarily need to be white (Grimmond, 2007)

Increase spacing between buildings

Green infrastructure: vegetation reduces ambient air temperatures through increased evapotranspiration and provides shading

Cool pavements: Akbari et al. (2001) found a 10oC decrease in pavement temperature for a 0.25 increase in albedo

Ensure ventilation in old, high density housing

Heat wave action plans and heat awareness


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8.0 References

Akbari H., Pomerantz M., Taha H., 2001. Cool Surfaces and shade trees to reduce energy use and

improve air quality in urban areas. Solar Energy 70: 295 - 310

Anderson M., Dann S., Hughes C., Kersey, J., Chapman L., Kings L., Thornes J., Hunt, A. and Taylor T.

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Birmingham’s Climate Portfolio Climate... · Birmingham exhibits less of an extreme range, perhaps moderated by its urban influence (Figure 3). Birmingham had a mean daily temperature