Biotic Consequences of Biotic Consequences of Climate Change Climate Change

RaquibulRaquibul AminAminProgrammeProgramme Coordinator Coordinator

IUCN Bangladesh Country Office IUCN Bangladesh Country Office

Impact of Climate Change on Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity and EcosystemBiodiversity and Ecosystem

PREDICTED IMPACTS ON SPECIES PREDICTED IMPACTS ON SPECIES

Species ranges and Species ranges and phenologiesphenologies (e.g. early flowering) (e.g. early flowering) will shift will shift Biotic communities will dissociate in space and time.Biotic communities will dissociate in space and time.Those that are already critically endangered are likely Those that are already critically endangered are likely to be driven to extinction to be driven to extinction Migratory species may be at particular risk since they Migratory species may be at particular risk since they require separate breeding, wintering and migratory require separate breeding, wintering and migratory habitats habitats Frequency and intensity of pest attack will increaseFrequency and intensity of pest attack will increaseProductivity of ecosystem will changeProductivity of ecosystem will change

SOME RECENT OBSERVATIONS SOME RECENT OBSERVATIONS

FROGSFROGS

The habitat of Golden Toad in The habitat of Golden Toad in Costa Rica moved to higher Costa Rica moved to higher altitude altitude

Climate change seems to making frogs more Climate change seems to making frogs more vulnerable to fungal infectionvulnerable to fungal infection--Two third of 110 species of colorful harlequin frogs Two third of 110 species of colorful harlequin frogs in South and in South and CcentralCcentral America are affectedAmerica are affected

BUTTERFLYBUTTERFLYNonNon--migratory butterflies in Northern Africa and migratory butterflies in Northern Africa and Northern Europe shifted home range by 20 to 150 Northern Europe shifted home range by 20 to 150 milesmiles

PINON MOUSE PINON MOUSE

The mouse moved 1000 to 3000 ft higher elevation The mouse moved 1000 to 3000 ft higher elevation over past century in Southwestern USover past century in Southwestern US

QUIVER TREEQUIVER TREE

Started to die off in parts of their traditional range in Started to die off in parts of their traditional range in Southern Africa Southern Africa

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Formerrange limit

SOME CONSEQUENCES OF RANGE SHIFTS

After Peters (1992)

Current Current PAsPAs will become unsuitable as reserveswill become unsuitable as reserves

SOME CONSEQUENCES OF RANGE SHIFTSSOME CONSEQUENCES OF RANGE SHIFTS

Habitat fragmentation will hinder unassisted Habitat fragmentation will hinder unassisted migrationmigrationSpecies will behave individualistically, it will not Species will behave individualistically, it will not be possible to maintain biotic communities in be possible to maintain biotic communities in their current statetheir current stateWeedy species will migrate fastest and capture Weedy species will migrate fastest and capture vacated territoryvacated territoryNative species can become invasive Native species can become invasive

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Current thinking often emphasizes gradual changes.

After US Geological Survey (2005)

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However, abrupt climatic change can lead to abruptecosystem change.

After US Geological Survey (2005)

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Gradual climatic change may also trigger unexpected and abrupt ecosystem change (threshold response)

After US Geological Survey (2005)

ADDITIONAL DRIVERS

Others drivers will compound the Others drivers will compound the climate change impact: climate change impact:

Invasive speciesInvasive speciesLandLand--use changeuse changeOverexploitation (socioOverexploitation (socio--economic driver) economic driver) Pollution Pollution

What will happen in Bangladesh? What will happen in Bangladesh?

IPCC scenario for Bangladesh IPCC scenario for Bangladesh

Major impacts will be through Major impacts will be through

Rise in temperature, Increased and Rise in temperature, Increased and untimely rainfall untimely rainfall Sea level riseSea level riseCyclones, Storm surgesCyclones, Storm surgesFlood and DroughtFlood and DroughtWater loggingWater loggingSalinity intrusionSalinity intrusion

Resistance: ability to resist stresses.Resilience: ability to recover from stresses.

Managing for the unexpected will entail, at least in part,managing for ecosystem resistance and resilience

INTERVENTIONSINTERVENTIONS

Restore ecosystems and rehabilitate endangered species Restore ecosystems and rehabilitate endangered species Develop national management plans for control and Develop national management plans for control and eradication of invasive alien specieseradication of invasive alien speciesMoratorium on clearing forest Moratorium on clearing forest Introduction of salt tolerant speciesIntroduction of salt tolerant speciesLong term strategy and planning for water management Long term strategy and planning for water management in essentialin essentialLong term monitoring and capacity building Long term monitoring and capacity building Appropriate research is needed to determine and Appropriate research is needed to determine and identify an acceptable substitute of plant speciesidentify an acceptable substitute of plant species

Review of Policies and programReview of Policies and program

Integrate biodiversity conservation into the Integrate biodiversity conservation into the national development planning and national development planning and processesprocesses

Promotion of synergies with other Promotion of synergies with other MEAsMEAs

Climate change is intrinsically linked to the well Climate change is intrinsically linked to the well –– being of ecosystems, in terms of livelihood being of ecosystems, in terms of livelihood securities, biodiversity, forestry securities, biodiversity, forestry In the light of the uncertainties of climate In the light of the uncertainties of climate change, it is crucial to promote synergies change, it is crucial to promote synergies amongst the three Rio Conventions: UNFCCC, amongst the three Rio Conventions: UNFCCC, CBD and CCD CBD and CCD

THANK YOUTHANK YOU