Biodiversity as a natural capital: The findings of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA)

Dr. V.B. MathurDean, Faculty of Wildlife Sciences Wildlife Institute of Indiavbm@wii.gov.in

Pre-meeting training course IAIA ’08Perth, Australia

What is Biodiversity?

"A definition of biodiversity that is altogether simple, comprehensive, and fully operational ... is unlikely to be found."

…Noss, 1990

What is Biodiversity?

"Biological diversity is the variety and variability among living organisms and the ecological complexes in which they occur"

…U.S. Congress Office of Technology Assessment, "Technologies to Maintain Biological Diversity," 1987

What is Biodiversity?

"Natural diversity is synonymous with biological diversity... To the scientist, natural diversity has a variety of meanings. These include: 1) the number of different native species and individuals in a habitat or geographical area; 2) the variety of different habitats within an area; 3) the variety of interactions that occur between different species in a habitat; and 4) the range of genetic variation among individuals within a species."

… Jones and Stokes Associates' "Sliding Toward Extinction: The State of California's Natural Heritage," 1987

What is Biodiversity?

"Biological diversity, simply stated, is the diversity of life... biological diversity means the full range of variety and variability within and among living organisms and the ecological complexes in which they occur, and encompasses ecosystem or community diversity, species diversity, and genetic diversity."

…D.B. Jensen, M. Torn, and J. Harte, "In Our Own Hands: A Strategy for Conserving Biological Diversity in California," 1990

Levels of Biodiversity

Genetic

Species

Communities and Ecosystem

Source: PUAF 741

Species Richness of Major Groups

Source: PUAF 741

Inner ring indicates proportion that has been described; total = 1.75 million (increasing by 100,000/y)

Outer ring indicates best estimate of total species (14 million)

What drives environmental change?

This question was addressed by 1360 scientists from 95 countries in the form of Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) project for 5 years (2000-2005).

Millennium Assessment (Pages end

to end)Eiffel Tower

Feet

2000

1000

What drives environmental change?

Indirect Indirect Drivers Drivers

Demography Demography Economy (Globalization, Trade, Markets…….)Economy (Globalization, Trade, Markets…….) Socio-Political (Governance and Institutional Socio-Political (Governance and Institutional

Framework)Framework) Science and Technology applicationsScience and Technology applications Cultural and Religious factorsCultural and Religious factors

Direct Direct DriversDrivers

Landuse changesLanduse changes Species introduction or removalSpecies introduction or removal External inputs (Irrigation, Fertilizer etc)External inputs (Irrigation, Fertilizer etc) Natural factors (Earthquake, Volcanoes etc)Natural factors (Earthquake, Volcanoes etc)

World Population (billions)

1 billion in 1800

4 billion in 1975

2 billion in 1920

6.5 billion in 2005

Source: UN Population Division 2004; Lee, 2003; Population Reference Bureau

World GDP (trillion US $)

Source: DeLong 1998

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900 2100

Year

$1 trillion in 1900

$10 trillion in 1967

$52 trillion in 2003

Habitat Loss

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Temperate Grasslands & Woodlands

Temperate Broadleaf Forest

Tropical Dry Forest

Tropical Grasslands

Tropical Coniferous Forest

Mediterranean Forests

Tropical Moist Forest

0 50 100

Percent of habitat (biome) remaining

Scale of Change

20% of the world’s coral reefs were lost and more than 20% degraded.

35% of mangrove area has been lost in the last several decades.

Amount of water in reservoirs quadrupled since 1960.

Teragrams of Nitrogen per Year

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Fossil Fuels

Agroecosystems

Fertilizer

Total Human Additions

Natural Sources

CO2 Concentration (ppm)

Source: Keeling and Whorf, 2005.

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

1954 1969 1983 1998 2012

Loss of Species Diversity

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

Fossil Recent Future

Number per Thousand Species

Extinctions(per thousand years)

100 to 1000-fold increase

Low certainty

High certainty

Medium certainty

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

Fossil Recent Future

Number per Thousand Species

Extinctions(per thousand years)

100 to 1000-fold increase

Low certainty

High certainty

Medium certainty

Low certainty

Speculative

Crops Status

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001

Ind

ex

(1

96

1 =

10

0)

Food Production Food Production per Capita Food Price

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Global Surface Temperature Change (oc) from 1990

Source: IPCC 2001

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100A: Observations, Northern Hemisphere, Proxy data

B: Global Instrumental Observations

C: IPCC 2001 Scenario Projections (SRES)

A B C

1.5 – 5.7 oC

Global Balance Sheet

Crops Livestock Aquaculture Carbon

sequestration

Capture fisheries Wild foods Wood fuel Genetic resources Biochemicals Fresh Water Air quality regulation Regional & local climate

regulation Erosion regulation Water purification Pest regulation Pollination Natural Hazard regulation Spiritual & religious Aesthetic values

Timber Fiber Water regulation Disease regulation Recreation &

ecotourism

Enhanced Degraded Mixed

Bottom Line: 60% of Ecosystem Services are Degraded

State of World’s Conservation

Trends in Drivers Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Source: Melbourne, Australia, March 30, 2005

1360 SCIENTISTS FROM 95 COUNTRIES SAY THE WORLD IS ON THE BRINK OF DISASTER

I’VE ASKED FOR A SECOND OPINION

What have we achieved globally in conservation?

Put together a global framework- Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD, 1992).

Ratified by 192 countries. CBD tenets:

● Conserve biodiversity ● Use sustainably● Share equitably

An impressive network of Protected Areas (National Parks, Wildlife Sanctuaries, Nature Reserves etc).

What have we failed to do globally in conservation?

Get the CBD to function effectively.

Value conservation benefits adequately.

Move the pro-people agenda.

Garner adequate political support for mainstreaming conservation.

What is changing…?

Global pressures and demands.

People’s pressures on resources.

Priority for conservation (Development v/s Conservation).

If 90’s was the decade for conservation; 2000s indicates missed opportunities.

The Way Forward……

Mainstreaming conservation in development planning.

More policy and legal reforms to address resource sharing and equity issues.

Enhance professionalism of the range of stakeholders though capacity building.

thank you…