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BioaccumulationBioaccumulation Model (FCM)Model (FCM)
General Electric Housatonic River Site, Rest of River
Great Barrington, MA
CCC Meeting February 22, 2006
Gary Lawrence (Golder Associates Ltd.) Jonathan Clough (Warren Pinnacle Consulting)
OutlineOutline
1.1. Model OverviewModel Overview 2.2. FCM Validation Results (PSA)FCM Validation Results (PSA) 3.3. FCM Downstream ModelingFCM Downstream Modeling
Reach Pomeroy Avenue 5B
RoRoaarriinngg BrBrooookkEast/West Branch LOCATOR MAP
Confluence FCM Spatial DomainFCM Spatial Domain Holmes Road FCM ModelMA
Yokun Domain (PSA)Brook CTReach Sackett
5A Brook
Reach 5C
Reach 5D N
W E
Pittsfield S
WWTP 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 Miles
Woods Pond Headwaters
Reach 5B
LEGEND New Lenox Reach
Road 6 Backwater RegionsFCM DomainWoods Pond Main Channel Footbridge 10-Year Floodplain
Woods Pond # Dam
BioaccumulationBioaccumulation
PCB
Bioaccumulation = the process by which living things•• Bioaccumulation = the process by which living things accumulate contaminants from their environmentaccumulate contaminants from their environment Occurs by feeding and by contact•• Occurs by feeding and by contact with water and solidswith water and solids
Phytoplankton
Zooplankton
Aquatic Insects
Forage Fish
Predator Fish
BiomagnificationBiomagnification
• Biomagnification: concentration in the food chain • PCBs both bioaccumulate and biomagnify
• Biomagnification: concentration in the food chain • PCBs both bioaccumulate and biomagnify
PCB
Model LinkagesModel Linkages
PCB Exposure Inputs (EFDC)
Temperature (HSPF)
Bioaccumulation Model (FCM)
Exposure Inputs from EFDC:Exposure Inputs from EFDC: 1.1. PCB in bed sedimentPCB in bed sediment
organic carbonorganic carbon 2.2. PCB in water columnPCB in water column
organic matter (POM)organic matter (POM) 3.3. Dissolved PCB in sedimentDissolved PCB in sediment
pore waterpore water 4.4. Dissolved PCB in waterDissolved PCB in water
columncolumn
2
4
1 3
Conceptual ModelConceptual Model
Bioaccumulation ProcessesBioaccumulation Processes
• PCB Uptake: a. Dietary uptakeb. Respiration
• PCB Elimination
• PCB Uptake: a. Dietary uptake b. Respiration
• PCB Elimination
a d
b c
iiij
n
j ijcui
i vGKvCcKdt dv )(
1 +−+= ∑
=
α
b a c & d
c.c. Depuration (loss by gill elimination and fecal egestion)Depuration (loss by gill elimination and fecal egestion) d.d. Growth dilutionGrowth dilution
FCM ValidationFCM Validation Results -Results - PSAPSA
FCM Representative FishFCM Representative Fish
Bullhead
Bass
SunfishCyprinid Minnows
Upstream Downstream
Predators
Forage Fish
Bottom Fish
White Sucker
Validation – FCM Representative Species
Validation – FCM Representative Species
1000
Sim
ulat
ed F
ish
Tiss
ue P
CB
Con
cent
ratio
ns (m
g/kg
ww
)
100
10
1
1 10 100 1000
Validation Data Set, Measured PCB Concentrations (mg/kg ww) Expressed as Averages for each Combination of FCM Species, Age, Reach, and Date Collected
Overprediction by 5-fold Overprediction by 2.5-fold Perfect fit line Underprediction by 2.5-fold Underprediction by 5-fold Unique Age, Species, Reach, Date 1< n < 7 n > 6
(Over-prediction)
(Under-prediction)
Validation – By Sample Size(Lipid-normalized tPCB)
Validation – By Sample Size(Lipid-normalized tPCB)
10000
FCM Species, Age, Reach, and Date Collected
Sim
ulat
ed F
ish
Tiss
ue P
CB
Con
cent
ratio
ns (m
g/kg
lipi
d)
oil
vinegar
lipid
non-lipid
100
1000
100 1000 10000
Validation Data Set, Measured PCB Concentrations (mg/kg lipid) Expressed as Averages for each Combination of
Overprediction by 5-fold Overprediction by 2.5-fold Perfect fit line Underprediction by 2.5-fold Underprediction by 5-fold Unique Age, Species, Reach, Date 1< n < 7 n > 6
Validation – By SpeciesValidation – By Species
1
10
100
1000
1 10 100 1000
Validation Data Set, Measured PCB Concentrations (mg/kg ww) Expressed as Averages for each Combination of FCM Species, Age, Reach, and Date Collected
Sim
ulat
ed F
ish
Tiss
ue P
CB
Con
cent
ratio
ns (m
g/kg
ww
)
Overprediction by 5-fold Overprediction by 2.5-fold Perfect fit line Underprediction by 2.5-fold Underprediction by 5-fold Bass Bullhead Sunfish White Sucker
Si
mul
ated
Fis
h Ti
ssue
PC
B C
once
ntra
tions
(mg/
kg w
w)
Validation – By River ReachValidation – By River Reach 1000
Overprediction by 5-fold Overprediction by 2.5-fold Perfect fit line Underprediction by 2.5-fold Underprediction by 5-fold Reach 5A Reach 5B Reach 5C Woods Pond
Reach 6
Reach 5
100
10
1
1 10 100 1000
Validation Data Set, Measured PCB Concentrations (mg/kg ww) Expressed as Averages for each Combination of FCM Species, Age, Reach, and Date Collected
1000
100
10
Bas
s Ti
ssue
tPC
B (m
g/kg
ww
)
Validation – Adult LargemouthBass (By Time Period)
Validation – Adult LargemouthBass (By Time Period)
1000
(Young Fish Aged 1+ to 5+ Years Only)
ww
)
(Mature Fish Aged 6+ Or Greater Only)
100
Bas
s Ti
ssue
tPC
B (m
g/kg
10
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Sampling/Simulation Date Sampling/Simulation Date
Measured -R each 5B (Age 6+ to 9+) Measured - Reach 6 (Age 6+ to 9+)Measured - Reach 6 (Age 2+ to 5+) Simulated - Reach 6 (Age 4+) Simulated -R each 5B (Age 8+) Simulated - Reach 6 (Age 8+)Measured - Reach 5C (Age 2+) Simulated - Reach 5C (Age 2+)
Measured - Reach 5B (Age 5+) Simulated - Reach 5B (Age 5+) Simulated -R each 5A (Age 8+) Simulated - Reach 5C (Age 8+)
Simulated - Reach 5A (Age 3+) Simulated - Reach 5D (Age 3+) Simulated -R each 5D (Age 8+)
Validation – InterspeciesExtrapolation (lipid-normalized tPCB)
Validation – InterspeciesExtrapolation (lipid-normalized tPCB)
100
1000
10000
100 1000 10000
Validation Data Set, Measured PCB Concentrations (mg/kg lipid) Expressed as Averages for each Combination of FCM Species, Age, Reach, and Date Collected
Sim
ulat
ed F
ish
Tiss
ue P
CB
Con
cent
ratio
ns (m
g/kg
lipi
d) Overprediction by 5-fold Overprediction by 2.5-fold Perfect fit line Underprediction by 2.5-fold Underprediction by 5-fold Yellow Perch Other Predator Trout Carp Goldfish
MB* > 1.0 = Overprediction
MB* < 1.0 = Underprediction 1 Species extrapolations required
2 Lipid-normalized results used
Model Performance MeasuresModel Performance Measures
Data Grouping Samples MAPE MB*
Type of Measure Accuracy Bias All Samples 484 39% 0.94
FCM Representative Species 247 44% 0.91
All Other Species1 237 34% 0.99
Reach 5A 35 35% 0.95
Reach 5B 195 40% 0.86
Reach 5C 8 60% 0.67
Reach 6 246 38% 1.03
Bass 153 39% 1.04
Bullhead 4 73% 0.68
Carp1,2 8 57% 1.66
Goldfish1,2 42 43% 0.73
Other Predator1 3 38% 1.31
Sunfish 89 51% 0.72
Trout1,2 6 74% 1.35
White Sucker 1 3% 0.97
Yellow Perch1 178 29% 1.02
All YOY Samples 244 36% 0.89
All Adult Fish 240 42% 1.00
MFD/QAPP validation performance measure:
0.40 < MB* < 2.50
Observed range:
0.68 < MB* < 1.66