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Beyond Combustion
July 2017
Trends, Goals, and RecommendationsELECTRIC VEHICLE TRENDS, GOALS, AND
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SONOMA COUNTYBy Doron Amiran, Electric Vehicle Program Manager, Center for Climate Protection
August 2017
www.climateprotection.org
TableofContents
Acknowledgements 2
ExecutiveSummary 3
GlossaryofAcronymsandTerms 5
I.Introduction 6
II.Summaryof2015EVWhitePaper 10
III.ProposedGoalsforEVAdoptioninSonomaCounty 10
IV.SonomaCountyEVStatusandTrends 15
V.FactorsInfluencingEVAdoption 16
VI.LocalPoliciesandPrograms 19
VII.DiscussionandFindings 22
VIII.Recommendations 24
IX.Conclusion 24
AppendixA:CurrentMixofEVsinSonomaCounty 25
AppendixB:TheChallengeofUsedEVs 26
Beyond Combustion: Electric Vehicle Trends, Goals, and Recommendations for Sonoma County, August 2017
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AcknowledgementsTheCenterforClimateProtectionthanksthefollowingwhocontributedtothisreport:BrantArthur,CommunityAffairsSpecialist,SonomaCountyRCPA,whoauthoredthefirstversionofthisreportin2015andreviewedthisversion;CenterforClimateProtection’sEVCommitteemembers:LawrenceJaffe,JimMcGreen,CarlMears,andTimHolmes;AlanSoule,PastPresident,NorthBayElectricAutoAssociation;RonGoldbergwhohelpedusformulateanEVgoalforSonomaCounty;andthegenerousdonorswhosupportourEVwork,includingConnieCodding,FredEuphrat,KenandDonnaMartin,CarlMears,AlanSoule,SinatraAutoGroupandVivintSolar.Wehaveendeavoredtogiveaccurateandusefulinformation.Pleasedirectsuggestions,comments,andquestionstoDoronAmiran,ElectricVehicleProgramManager,CenterforClimateProtection,[email protected]
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ExecutiveSummary
ThispaperupdatestheCenterforClimateProtection’s2015WhitePaperonthestateofElectricVehicles(EVs)inSonomaCounty.TomeetSonomaCounty’sclimategoals,salesofvehicleswithinternalcombustionenginesmustslowdramaticallyinthenext10to15years.Additionally,internalcombustionenginesmustbecomemorefuel-efficient.Otherwise,effortstocurbSonomaCountyGHGemissionswillbeswampedbytailpipeemissions.EVsarethereadiestreplacementforvehicleswithinternalcombustionengines.SonomaCountycurrentlyhasabout4,500EVsontheroad,andby2030itwillneedapproximately138,000EVs(replacinginternalcombustionvehicles)tomeetourclimategoals.Wemustnowbegintocreateafuturebeyondcombustion.ToattaintheneededlevelofEVadoption,anumberofchallengesmustbeovercome,manyofwhichdefylocalaction.Forexample,thecurrentfederaladministrationandCongressthreatentoundoincentivesandregulationsthatadvancecleanenergyandfuel-efficientvehicles.Consequently,SonomaCountymustredoubleitseffortstoaccelerateEVadoption.SpecialattentionmustbepaidtoincreasingthenumberofdriversswitchingfromcombustionvehiclestoEVsratherthansimplyhavingcurrentEVdriversreplacetheircarswithnewerEVs.TherecommendedactionspresentedintheAugust2015whitepaperarestillneeded:1. Advocateforpoliciesandfunding,especiallyatthestatelevel,toaccelerateEV
use.2. ExpandEVcharging,especiallyatworkplaces,multi-unithousing,andalong
transportationcorridors.3. DevelopandimplementanEVawarenesscampaign.4. DevelopEVinfrastructurethroughincreasedcoordination.Inaddition,weofferthefollowingnewrecommendedactions:1. Developandimplementplanstoincreaseandconfirmthenumberofdrivers
switchingfromcombustionvehiclestoEVs;ensurethatnewEVsdonotsimplyreplaceexistingEVs.
2. DevelopanEVchargingstationvisibilitycampaign.3. WorkwithSonomaCleanPower,otherpublicagencies,andtheprivatesectorto
maximizedaytimechargingtoaddressloadmanagementissuesandmaximizetheuseofrenewablepower.
4. Developfinancing,insurance,andvehiclesharingmechanismsthatgivelow-incomedriversaccesstoEVs.
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5. DevelopawarenessprogramsthathighlighttheaffordabilityandaccessibilityofEVsforpeopleatallincomelevels.
6. Advocateandplanforafuturethateliminatesthesaleofnewinternalcombustionenginecarsby2030atthelatest.
7. TrackandpublicizeprogresstowardthegoalsforEVadoption.
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GlossaryofacronymsandtermsBAAQMD BayAreaAirQualityManagementAgencyBEV BatteryElectricVehicleCAFE CorporateAverageFuelEconomyCARB CaliforniaAirResourcesBoardCEC CaliforniaEnergyCommissionCCP CenterforClimateProtectionCVRP CaliforniaVehicleRebateProgramDCFC DirectCurrentFastChargerDMV DepartmentofMotorVehiclesEPA EnvironmentalProtectionAgencyEV ElectricVehicleEVSE ElectricVehicleSupplyEquipmenteVMT ElectricVehicleMilesTravelledFCEV FuelCellElectricVehicleGHG GreenhouseGaskWh kilowatt-hourLevel1charging 110volt(trickle)chargingLevel2charging 240volt(faster)chargingLevel3(DCFC) High-voltage(fastest)chargingMCE MarinCleanEnergyMUD MultiUnitDwellingNBEAA NorthBayElectricAutoAssociationNSCAPCD NorthernSonomaCountyAirPollutionControlDistrictPEV Plug-InElectricVehiclePG&E PacificGasandElectricPHEV Plug-InHybridElectricVehicleRCPA SonomaCountyRegionalClimateProtectionAuthoritySCP SonomaCleanPowerSCTA SonomaCountyTransportationAuthorityVMT VehicleMilesTraveledZEV ZeroEmissionVehicle
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I.IntroductionA.ScientificimperativeforclimateprotectionandSonomaCounty’sleadershipIn2002,allnineSonomaCountycitiesandtheCountyofSonomaadoptedresolutionsrecognizingtheclimatecrisisandpledgingtoacttoreducegreenhousegas(GHG)emissions.In2005,alltenjurisdictionspassedresolutionssettingthegoalofreducingSonomaCounty’sGHGs25percentbelow1990levelsby2015,inlinewiththescientificimperativeforalife-sustainingclimate,andtheboldestgoalinthenationatthetime.Followingthe2005adoptionofthe25percentreductiongoal,theCenterforClimateProtectionfocusedoncollaboratingwithlocalgovernments,businessleaders,technicalexperts,andthecommunityatlargetodeveloptheSonomaCountyCommunityClimateActionPlan,issuedin2008.ThePlanidentifiedCommunityChoiceEnergyasthemostpowerfulsolutionunderlocalcontroltosignificantlyandcost-effectivelyreduceGHGemissions.Consequently,theCenterforClimateProtectionandlocalpolicymakerscametogethertocreateSonomaCleanPower,aCommunityChoiceentity,whichbeganservingcustomerswithcleanerelectricityinMay2014.Fortheseandotherprecedent-settingactions,SonomaCountyisknownasaleaderinclimatecirclesworldwide.TheWhiteHouserecognizedSonomaCountyasaClimateActionChampionin2014.1B.SonomaCounty’sprogresstowardsGHGgoalsSonomaCounty’smostrecentGHGreportindicatesthatSonomaCountymissedits2015GHGgoal.2In2016,theSonomaCountyRegionalClimateProtectionAuthorityextendedthedateforachievingSonomaCounty’sGHGreductiongoalfrom2015to2020.3Becausecarbonaccumulatesintheatmosphere,SonomaCounty’schallengetomeetthescientificimperativecompoundseveryyearitfallsshortofitsgoal.
1 https://energy.gov/epsa/climate-action-champions 2 http://climateprotection.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions-report-2014/. The Sonoma County Regional Climate Protection Authority released a similar report using a slightly different methodology https://rcpa.ca.gov/projects/climate-action-2020/blog/ To be consistent with our past GHG reports, we use the Center for Climate Protection’s GHG report. 3 http://rcpa.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/CA2020_Plan_7-7-16_web.pdf
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Figure1:SonomaCountyGHGemissionsbysource(2014)SonomaCountyisnotaloneinitsstruggletoreduceGHGemissionsinlinewiththescientificimperative.DespiteCalifornia’sgainsinrenewableenergydeployment,energyefficiency,andEVuse,itsGHGemissionsdeclinedin2015just0.3percentfromtheprioryear.4California’sgrowingpopulationandstrengtheningeconomycurrentlytrumpthedriveforsteeperemissionreductions.
4 https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/inventory.htm; http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/California-s-greenhouse-gas-emissions-fall-by-11206585.php
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Figure2:CaliforniaGHGemissions
C.TransportationchallengeIn2014,transportationproducedabout65percentofSonomaCounty’stotalGHGemissions.5Moreover,GHGemissionsinthissectorareprojectedtoincrease.AccordingtotheSonomaCountyTransportationAuthority’sComprehensiveTransportationPlan:
“SonomaCountytransportationGHGemissionsareexpectedtoincreasebyabout39percentduringtheperiodfrom2010to2040.Thisislargelyafactorofincreasedtravelduetopopulationandemploymentgrowth,andassumesthatthevehiclefleetmakeupandvehiclefueleconomystayaboutthesameastheycurrentlyareby2040.GHGemissionsareexpectedtoincreaseatagreaterratethanVMTbecauseofincreasedcongestionandbecauseofslower,andlessefficient,travelspeeds.Statemandatedfueleconomyimprovements(Pavley,AB1493)couldprovidesignificantGHGreductionsby2040becauseofimprovedvehiclefueleconomies,andotherdevelopingandemergingvehicletechnologiesarelikelytoalsocontributetoreducedemissionsfromautomobiletravel.”6
5 http://climateprotection.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions-report-2014/ 6 http://scta.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/CTP16_090616.pdf
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TransportationisnotonlythelargestsourceofSonomaCounty’sGHGemissions,itisalsotheleastamenableofallsectorstolocalemission-reductionmeasures.Dependenceonindividually-owned,individually-driven,internalcombustionvehiclesisandwillcontinuetobethegreatestimpedimenttoreducingSonomaCountyGHGemissions.D.EVs’roleinelectrifyingeverythingThequickestpathtoreducingfossilfuelcombustionistoelectrifyeverythingfromhomeheatingtotransportation,anduserenewableenergyforelectricitygeneration.7Asthegridgetscleaner,whichitisdoingatasteadypace,allelectricaldevices,includingcars,getcleaner.Bycontrast,nomatterhowfuel-efficientacombustionvehicleis,itwillcontinuetoemitaconsistentamountofGHGspermiletraveleduntilitisreplaced,usually10to20yearsinthefuture.NotonlydoEVsdirectlyresultinemissionsreductions,theycanalsoprovideacriticalbuffertooneofthegrowingchallengesinherentwithrenewableenergy:intermittentsupply.Electricityproducedbysunandwindrarelymatchesconsumers’real-timedemandforelectricity.Ameanstostoreelectricityisneededwhentoomuchisproduced,andtoaccessitduringlesssunnyorwindytimes.LargenumbersofEVsconnectedtothegridthroughsmartchargingtechnologyofferaperfectplacetostoreexcesselectricityandmakeitavailablewhenneeded.Programs,incentives,andinfrastructuredesignsthatfosterdaytimeEVchargingwillhelpaccelerateevenmoresolarpowergeneration.MCEandSCPareattheforefrontofexploringEVdeploymentwithsmart-chargingincentivesandprospectiveratedesignsthatincentivizedaytimecharging.8
7 https://www.vox.com/2016/9/19/12938086/electrify-everything 8 https://sonomacleanpower.org/sonoma-clean-power-enters-world-electric-vehicles-new-incentives/
Thequickestpathtoreducingfossilfuelcombustionistoelectrifyeverything.
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II.Summaryof2015EVWhitePaperThefastestwayforSonomaCountytoreducetransportationemissionsistoacceleratetheshiftfromgasolineanddieselfueltoelectricity,asdescribedinthe2015“ElectricVehiclesinSonomaCounty:StatusandPathstoAdoption.”9Thispaperpresentedthefollowingfindingsandrecommendations.Findings:A. ForreducingGHGemissions,fuelshiftissignificantlymorepowerfulthanmode
shift.Thismeansthatchangingthefuelpoweringvehiclesiseasiertoimpactthanischangingthetypesofwayspeoplegetaround.
B. Workplacechargerssignificantlyincreaseelectricvehiclemilestravelled(eVMT).Forexample,employeesaretwentytimesmorelikelytouseanEViftheycanchargetheirEVsatwork.10
C. RenewablepowerboostsGHGreductionsfromEVs.IftheelectricitypoweringEVsisgreener,GHGemissionsfromtransportationdecreases.
D. Moreaffordable,desirableEVsareonthehorizon.E. MeetingstategoalsrequiressignificantlymoreEVchargersinSonomaCounty.F. LocalandregionalpoliciescanaccelerateEVuse.G. ManypotentialEVusersareunawareofEVsandrelatedinfrastructure.H. IncreasedfundingtoaccelerateEVadoptionwillsoonbeavailable.Recommendations:1. Advocateforpoliciesandfunding,especiallyatthestatelevel,toaccelerateEV
use.2. ExpandEVcharging,especiallyatworkplaces,multi-unithousing,andalong
transportationcorridors.3. DevelopandimplementanEVawarenesscampaign.4. DevelopEVinfrastructurethroughincreasedcoordination.The2015WhitePaperalsoprovideddetailsregardingthehistoryofEVsinSonomaCounty,economicandenvironmentalbenefits,andatechnicalreview.Thisnewreportupdatesthe2015EVWhitePaperforSonomaCountywithgoalsandtrendsforEVadoption,andrecommendationsformeetingtheproposedgoals.
9 https://climateprotection.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/EVWhitePaper-SonomaCounty-Final.pdf 10 https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/11/f19/progress_report_final.pdf
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III.ProposedgoalsforEVadoptioninSonomaCountyHowmanyEVsarerequiredforSonomaCountytomeetthescientificallymandatedGHGreductionsinthetransportationsector?Theanswerisapproximately138,000by2030.First,somecaveatsregardingthisproposedEVgoal.Manyoftheassumptionsforit,suchasfuturetrendsincarownershipandVMTs,aredifficulttoestimate.Wehaveusedpubliclyavailablenationalfiguresinourcalculationswhereverpossible.ItmustalsobenotedthatSonomaCountyisalreadywellbehinditsinitialGHGreductiongoals,andmayfallfurtherbehindasagrowingpopulationdrivesmorecarsmoremilesonlocalroadways.ItisalsodifficulttoestimatetheimpactthattheimpendingSMARTtrainserviceandproposedexpansionofHOVlanesonlocalfreewayswillhaveondrivinghabits.Lastly,theanticipatedrapidgrowthofautonomousdrivingtechnologiesisexpectedtocoincidewiththetimeframeusedinthisreport,andmaycompletelytransformdrivinghabitsinthecomingdecadeandahalf,inwaysthatdefyprediction.Despitethesedifficulties,settingagoalforwherewewanttobeinthefutureisworthwhilebecauseitcaninspire,align,andmobilizeactiontowardourdesiredfuture.WethereforeofferthefollowingcalculationsbasedonSonomaCounty’scurrentanddesiredlevelsofGHGemissions.1. SonomaCounty’sgoalfortotalGHGemissionsin2015=2.6millionmetric
tons112. TotalGHGemissionsinSonomaCountyin2014=3.6millionmetrictons123. TotalrequiredGHGreduction:1.0millionmetrictons134. Transportationequals~65%oftotalGHGemissions.14Therefore,1.0million
metrictonsX.65=650,000metrictonsofGHGemissionsneedtobereducedfromtransportation.
5. TotalnumberoflightvehiclesinSonomaCountyin2014:417,076.156. Theaveragevehicleoverayearofdrivinghastailpipecarbondioxideemissions
ofabout4.7metrictonsfor11,400milesdriven.167. 650,000metrictonsdividedby4.7=138,298lightvehiclesneedtoswitch
fromgastoelectricity. 11 https://climateprotection.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2014-GHG-REPORT-Sonoma-County-072815-Final.pdf. 12 Ibid 13 Ibid 14 Ibid 15 DMV Estimated Vehicles Registered by County: January 1-December 31, 2014, CA DMV, provided by Brock Wells via email on 4/18/16. 16 https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/greenhouse-gas-emissions-typical-passenger-vehicle
138,000EVsmustsupplantthatmanycombustionvehiclesby2030tomeetSonomaCounty’sclimategoals
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8. 138,298dividedby16years=8,644averageEVincreaseperyear,orwecanreachthe138,000vehiclegoalin2030byincreasingEVadoptionby30.3percentannually.17
Thefollowinggraphreflectsthiscalculation.Figure3:MinimumnumberofEVsrequiredtomeetGHGgoalby203018
Asmentionedabove,projectedpopulationgrowthinSonomaCountyandacommensurategrowthinthetotalnumberofvehiclesandvehiclemilestraveledwillalsofactorintoSonomaCounty’strendsintransportation.Inaddition,uncertaintiessuchastheimpactofautonomousvehicles,ride-sharing,andcar-sharing,willaffectthesizeanduseoftheoverallautomobilefleetinSonomaCounty.SonomaCountycanachieveadramaticreductioninGHGemissionsfromtransportationthroughincreasedEVadoption.IfEVadoptionratesgrowatasteady30percentannualrate,asdescribedabove,EVswillcomprisethevastmajorityofnewcarsalesby2030.Underthisassumption,by2025,EVsaleswilloutstripthesaleofcombustioncars,andby2030thesaleofnewcombustioncarswouldessentiallyend.
17 16 years is approximately two average car “lifecycles.” 18 The Center for Climate Protection: https://climateprotection.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EV_adoption.xls
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TheGHGreductionsunderthescenariooutlinedinFigure3areshowninFigure4.Figure4:GHGreductionsfroma30percentannualincreaseinEVadoptioninSonomaCounty19
AmorelikelyscenarioisthatEVadoptiongrowswhilenewcombustioncarsbecomemorefuelefficient.ImprovedCorporateAverageFuelEconomy(CAFE)standardsfromtheUSDepartmentofTransportationaresettorisedramaticallyinthenextdecade.20However,thiswillbereversediftheTrumpadministrationlowersCAFEstandards,astheyhaveproposed.21Figure5reflectsmultiplefactorsforreducingSonomaCounty’stransportationemissionstoreachitsgoal.AlthoughitispossibletoachievethesegoalswithincreasedfuelefficiencyonlyorwithEVsonly,SonomaCountywillachieveitsgoalmostquicklyandachievethedeepestandmostsustainablereductionsinGHGsbycombiningthetwostrategies.
19 Source: Center for Climate Protection: https://climateprotection.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EV_GHG_reductions.xlsx 20 https://www.nhtsa.gov/laws-regulations/corporate-average-fuel-economy 21 http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/trump-rolls-back-obama-era-fuel-economy-standards-n734256
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Figure5:ScenariosforreducingSonomaCountytransportationemissions22
* Goalof650,000metrictonGHGemissionsreductioninSonomaCountytransportationsector,asdescribedonp.11ofthisreport.OurproposedEVgoalalignsfavorablywithgoalssetbyothers.TheyallpointtotheneedforrapidEVadoption.
Table1:LocalEVgoalsEntity EVgoal
CenterforClimateProtection 138,000by2030
SonomaCountyTransportationAuthority/RegionalClimateProtectionAuthority
110,000-140,000by204023
SonomaCleanPower 100,000by203024
BayAreaAirQualityManagementDistrict ~34,500by202525(toreachthegoalof138,000,weproject39,822
EVsby2025)
22 Center for Climate Protection: https://climateprotection.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/personal_transport.xlsx 23 Draft Comprehensive Transportation Plan states that to meet Sonoma County’s GHG emission reduction goal of 60 percent below 1990 levels by 2040 we must increase the zero emissions vehicle share to 40-50% of total fleet. http://scta.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/CTP16_090616.pdf 24 https://sonomacleanpower.org/timeline/scp-launches-new-drive-clean-drive-evergreen-program/ 25http://www.baaqmd.gov/~/media/Files/Strategic%20Incentives/EV%20Ready/Summary%20PEV%20Readiness%20Plan%20FINAL.ashx Figure extrapolated using total 247,000 EVs in the Bay Area by 2025, and Sonoma County = 14% of Bay Area population.
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IV.SonomaCountyEVstatusandtrendsThenumberofEVsownedbySonomaCountydriverscontinuestogrow.ThetotalnumberofelectriccarsinSonomaCountyisnowabout4,500,anincreaseofmorethan200percentsincesummer2015whentheinitialversionofthisWhitePaperwasissued.ThisEVgrowthexceedsthatoftheStateofCaliforniaasawhole,whichsawanincreaseofslightlylessthan60percentduringthesametimeperiod.
ThesenumbersarederivedfromstatisticsprovidedbytheCaliforniaVehicleRebateProgram(CVRP)towhichnewEVownersapplyfortheir$2,500staterebate.26TheCVRPdata,whileuseful,areincomplete.AccordingtotheCaliforniaEnergyCommission(CEC),inJuly2016therewereover225,000registeredEVsinCalifornia,butonly152,000receivedrebates.27Thismeansthatapproximately33percentofEVownersdonotapplyfororreceiverebates.Assumingthatonlytwo-thirdsofnewEV
ownersapplyforrebates,weextrapolatefromCVRPdatatodeterminetheapproximatenumberofEVownersinSonomaCounty.BytheendofApril2017,thetotalnumberofSonomaCountyresidentswhohadappliedforrebateswas3,185.28ThissuggeststotalEVownershipinSonomaCountywasapproximately4,500atthattime.SonomaCountynowaccountsforover2percentofCalifornia’sEVs,whichisanuptickfromthe1.6percentlevelreportedin2015.NovemberandDecember2016werethebiggestmonthsforEVrebateapplicationsinSonomaCounty,withover200vehiclespurchaseddirectlythroughSCP’sprogramduringthattime.ThisisprobablyattributabletotheveryattractiveincentivesofferedbySonomaCleanPowerfromOctober2016toJanuary2017.29Oneofthebiggestco-benefitsofswitchingfromgasolinetoelectricdrivingisthemoneythatissaved,andredirectedfrommultinationalfossilfuelcorporations,andpaidinsteadtolocalelectricityproviders,ornotspentonfuelatall.Theapproximately4,500EVownersinSonomaCountyaresavingover$5millioningasolinecostsannually.30Insteadofleavingthecounty,muchofthis$5millionremainincirculationinthelocaleconomy.Ifweextrapolatetoourprojected
26 https://cleanvehiclerebate.org/eng/rebate-statistics 27http://www.energy.ca.gov/renewables/tracking_progress/documents/electric_vehicle.pdf 28 https://cleanvehiclerebate.org/eng/rebate-statistics 29 https://sonomacleanpower.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Drive-EverGreen-EV-Incentive-Pilot-Evaluation-Report.pdf 30 $513,000,000 fuel cost/417,000 vehicles = $1,230 per car fuel cost average x 4,500 = $5,535,000.
Theapproximately4,500EVownersinSonomaCountyaresavingover$5millioningasolinecostsannually
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numberofEVsfor2030,theswitchtoelectricvehiclescouldsaveSonomaCountydriversover$150,000,000peryear,keepingthatmoneyinlocalcirculation.TheeconomicdrainonSonomaCountyfrominternalcombustionenginedrivinghasdecreasedinthepasttwoyears,mostlyduetolowergasolineanddieselprices.ThetotalamountspentbySonomaCountydriversongasolineanddieselpurchasesin2016wasapproximately$500millioncomparedwith$850millionin2013.31
V.FactorsinfluencingEVadoptionThediscussionbelowaddressessomeofthemainfactorsthatinfluenceEVadoption,asidentifiedinarecentstudybytheUniversityofHawaii.32AvailabilityofchargingstationsEasilyaccessibleEVcharging,especiallyatworkplacesandalsoatdestinationssuchasshoppingcentersandhotels,increasesthelikelihoodthatpeoplewillpurchaseEVs,increasestheamountEVownerswilldrivetheircars,andreducestheamountofgasolineburnedinPHEVs.InSonomaCountybetweenAugust2015andDecember2016,thenumberofpubliclyavailablechargersgrewfrom76publicLevel2stationsand8DCFastCharging(DCFC)stationsin2015,toover170Level2chargersinover90separatelocations,and26DCFCin10locations.Ofthese26DCFCstations,10areTeslaSuperchargersatonePetalumalocation.AlmostalloftheDCFCstationsarealongHighway101.Ingeneral,thereisalackofchargersoutsidethe101corridor,especiallyinthecoastalregionsofSonomaCounty.33SeveralworkplacesinstalledEVcharginginthepastyear,includingAmy’sKitchencorporateheadquartersinSantaRosa,SOMOVillageinRohnertPark,andVivintSolarinSebastopol.EVchargersarealsobecomingmoreprevalentathigh-enddestinationssuchaswineriesandhotels.TheStateofCaliforniaremainscommittedtoassistingitsresidentsinmakingtheswitchtoEVs.The$2,500staterebatetypicallygetsoversubscribed,butthelegislaturehasinthepastalwaysallocatedadditionalfunds.34StateSenateBillSB
31 417,000 vehicles x 11,400 miles per year / 25 average mpg x $2.70 average fuel cost = $513,000,000 32 “Factors Affecting EV Adoption,” Coffman et al, 2015, Electric Vehicle Transportation Center, University of Hawaii, 2015, http://evtc.fsec.ucf.edu/publications/documents/HNEI-04-15.pdf 33http://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=fbe75444a0f94b8f9cbf9074a6c35ec2&extent=-123.6588,38.1192,-122.2196,38.8609 34 http://www.plugincars.com/california-ev-rebates-are-back-effect-132148.html
TheswitchtoelectricvehiclescouldsaveSonomaCountydriversover$150,000,000peryear
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350,enactedinSeptember2015,directstheCaliforniaAirResourcesBoardtoinitiateavarietyofpoliciestoreduceemissionsandpromoteEVadoption.35EVcharginginfrastructurecontinuestoreceivesupportfromregionalandstateagencies,includingtheCaliforniaEnergyCommission(CEC)andtheBayAreaAirQualityManagementDistrict(BAAQMD).36BatterycostsandrangeIn2015,lithium-ionbatterypriceswerefallingfrom$500-600/kWhtowardsaprojected“tippingpoint”ofaround$200/kWh.37InOctober2016,BloombergNewsreportedthat“thepriceoflithium-ionbatterypackshasfallen65percentsince2010andislikelytokeepdeclining.”38Theirmorerecentanalysis,“Theelectriccarrevolutionisaccelerating,”predictsthatbatterypriceswillcontinuetheirprecipitouspricedecline,andthattheper-kilowatt-hourpriceoflithium-ionbatterieswillfallto$73by2030.39BothTeslaandGMarecurrentlymanufacturingorpurchasingbatterypacksforunder$200/kWh.40Asbatterypricescontinuetofall,EVswillbecomemoreaffordableforconsumers,andmoreprofitableforthecarmakers.Lowerbatterypriceswillalsofacilitatelonger-rangeEVsatincreasinglylowerprices.ArecentreportbyBloombergpredictsthatduetofallingbatteryprices,electriccarswillcostthesameorlesstobuythangasolinecarsby2025.41PolicyincentivesThe$7,500federaltaxcreditfornewEVsremainsintact,althoughitisuncertainwhetherthecurrentadministrationwillcontinueit.ThelargestareaofconcernforincreasedEVadoptionistheproposedrollbackofCorporateAverageFuelEconomy(CAFE)standardsbytheTrumpadministration.42ThiscouldpotentiallyslowEVdevelopment,althoughCaliforniaandotherstateswilllikelypushbackhardagainstthisproposal.
35 http://www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/openforum/article/SB350-gives-electric-vehicles-a-charge-6556868.php 36 http://www.baaqmd.gov/grant-funding/businesses-and-fleets/charge 37 http://reneweconomy.com.au/battery-storage-costs-plunge-below100kwh-19365/ 38 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-11/battery-cost-plunge-seen-changing-automakers-most-in-100-years 39 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-06/the-electric-car-revolution-is-accelerating 40 https://electrek.co/2017/02/18/tesla-battery-cost-gigafactory-model-3/ 41 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-26/electric-cars-seen-cheaper-than-gasoline-models-within-a-decade 42 http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/trump-rolls-back-obama-era-fuel-economy-standards-n734256
Electriccarswillcostthesameorlesstobuythangasolinecarsby2025
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Automakers,cardealers,andtheavailabilityofcarspeoplewantEVadoptionwillincreaseonlyifpeoplearesufficientlymotivatedtoovercometheirpresentdrivinghabitsandfuelingbehavior.Todothis,theymusthaveattractive,convenient,reasonably-pricedEVchoices.Teslahasdemonstratedthatthedemandforhigh-range,moderatelypriced,appealingEVsisstrong.Teslahascollectedover370,000cashdepositsof$1,000toreservetheirupcomingModel3.43GasolineanddieselpricesInrecentyears,thecorrelationbetweenfuelpricesandsalesoffuelefficientvehicleshasweakened.44Similarly,correlationsbetweenfuelpricesandEVsarealsosurprisinglyweak.45CaliforniaandSonomaCountyhavedirectlyexperiencedthis,asgasolinepricesfluctuatedfromover$4.00agallonto$2.50to$3.00pergallonwhilesalesofEVscontinuedtogrow.AstheEVmarketgrowsasapercentageoftotalcarsales,andEVownershipbecomes“normalized,”thecorrelationbetweenfuelpricesandEVsalescouldplausiblystrengthen.InspirationfromabroadNorwayhasthehighestpercapitanumberofall-electriccarsintheworld,morethan100,000inacountryof5.2millionpeople.Lastyear,EVsconstitutednearly40percentofNorway’snewlyregisteredpassengercars.46Elsewhereontheinternationalstagetherehavebeensomeboldpolicyproposals.TheNetherlands’lowerhouseofParliamenthaspassedadraftofalawthatwouldimposeacompletebanoninternalcombustionenginecarsalesbeginningin2025.47Germany’sBundesrathaspassedanon-bindingresolutionaimedatendingallcombustioncarsalesby2030,anotablefeatgiventhatGermanyisthefourthlargestcarmakerintheworld.48FranceandGreatBritainrecentlyannouncedplanstobanallgasolineanddieselvehiclesby2040.49FactorsinfluencingEVadoptionthatareunderlocalcontrolUsingalistoffactorsthatinfluenceEVadoptionfromarecentstudy,weidentifiedwhichofthesefactorsareormightbe,ingeneral,underlocalcontrol,asshownin
43 https://www.yahoo.com/tech/tesla-electric-lineup-now-includes-205704977.html 44 http://www.rff.org/blog/2016/how-do-gasoline-prices-affect-new-vehicle-sales 45 https://pluginamerica.org/do-gas-prices-correlate-plug-vehicle-sales/ 46 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/Norway 47 http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/netherlands-petrol-car-ban-law-bill-to-be-passed-reduce-climate-change-emissions-a7197136.html 48 https://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschmitt/2016/10/08/germanys-bundesrat-resolves-end-of-internal-combustion-engine/#5c72c77660bd 49 http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/france-petrol-diesel-ban-vehicles-cars-2040-a7826831.html
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thefollowingtable.50DistinguishingthesefactorsisimportantwhendevelopingSonomaCounty’sactionstoaccelerateEVadoption.Table2:FactorsinfluencingEVadoption Generallyunderlocal
control? Yes NoPurchaseprice XDrivingrange XChargingtime XFuelprices XBatteryprices XIncentivesforvehicleownership51 X XIncentivesforchargingsystems52 X XVehiclefeaturesandcharacteristics XAvailabilityofchargingstations X Traveldistance XPublicvisibility X Vehiclediversity X
VI.LocalpoliciesandprogramsWithinthecontextoftheneedtodramaticallyaccelerateEVadoptioninSonomaCountytomeetourgoaltoreduceGHGemissions,andthelimitsofcontrolthatSonomaCountyhasoverthefactorsthatinfluenceEVadoption,weturnourdiscussiontothelocalprogramsandpoliciescurrentlyunderwaytohelpmeetthechallengeofacceleratingEVadoption.Inearly2014,theSonomaCountyRegionalClimateProtectionAuthority(RCPA)anditsparentagency,theSonomaCountyTransportationAuthority(SCTA),wereawardedaStrategicGrowthCouncilPlanningGranttodevelopShiftSonomaCounty.Shiftisastrategicactionplantopromoteashiftinboththemodeandfuelusedforpersonaltransportation—throughcarshare,bikeshare,rideshare,transitintegration,education,incentives,andlanduse—aswellasstrategiestopromoteelectricvehicleuse.Thiswork,scheduledtobeformallyapprovedinFall2017,willassistlocalagenciesinplanningforthecomingchangesintransportationinSonomaCounty.TheplanoutlinesstrategiesforcuttingGHGemissionsfromtransportationinhalf.Proposedeffortsincludeplanning,policy,coordination,deployment,educationand 50 “Factors Affecting EV Adoption,” Coffman et al, 2015, Electric Vehicle Transportation Center, University of Hawaii, 2015, http://evtc.fsec.ucf.edu/publications/documents/HNEI-04-15.pdf 51 Some local agencies, including Sonoma Clean Power and Bay Area air districts, have created vehicle and charger incentive programs. These programs, although more limited in scope and resources than federal and state programs, can provide an additional boost to EV sales. 52 Ibid
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awarenessprogramsforlocalgovernmentstoconsider.FundingmustbesecuredinorderfortheprogramsandinfrastructureoutlinedinShiftSonomaCountytobeimplemented.A.IncreasingtheavailabilityofEVchargingstationsAspartofShiftSonomaCounty,ananalysisoffuturechargingneedswasconductedandhundredsofadditionallocationswereidentifiedwherechargingisneededintheshortterm.53Thisplanningworkwillaidlocalbusinessesandgovernmentsinselectingthebestlocationsforadditionalcharginginfrastructure.FundingfortheinstallationofthechargersisnotincludedintheShiftplan,butcompletionofthisplanningworkwillensurethatchargersareinstalledwheretheyaremostneeded,aspublicandprivatefundingbecomesavailable.Onelargesourceoffundingthatisexpectedtobecomeavailablesoonisfromthelargeinvestor-ownedutilities.TheCaliforniaPublicUtilitiesCommissionrecentlyapprovedPG&E’sapplicationforanElectricVehicleInfrastructureandEducationProgramthatwillfundtheinstallationof7,500Level2chargersthroughoutPG&E’sterritory,withanemphasisonworkplacesandmulti-unitdwellings(MUDs).54AlthoughPG&Ehasnotyetannouncedwheretheywilllocatethesechargers,extrapolatingfrompopulationdata,andassumingSonomaCountyreceivesashareofchargerscommensuratewithourshareofthepopulationinPG&E’sserviceterritory,SonomaCountyshouldexpectsomewhereontheorderof200to250newchargersinworkplaces,and200to250newchargersinMUDs.BayAreaAirQualityManagementDistrict’sCharge!Programisanincentiveprogramthatoffersgrantfundingtohelpoffsetaportionofthecostofpurchasing,installing,andoperatingnewpubliclyavailablechargingstationsatqualifyingfacilitieswithintheAirDistrict’sjurisdiction.55Bothpublicandprivateentitiesareeligibletoapply.For2017,$5millionisallocatedtothisprogram,andawardsaremadeonafirst-come,first-servedbasis.56Thisprogramwillcontributeupto75percentofthecostofpurchasingandinstallingchargingstations.Theminimumallocationis$10,000.Businesses,non-profitsandpublicagenciescanapply,andmustbothmakethechargerspubliclyavailableandmeetminimumusagerequirements.ThefundingissufficienttopayformanyhundredsofnewchargersthroughouttheBayArea.AlthoughitisdifficulttopredicthowmuchwillflowtoSonomaCounty,thisfundingwillcertainlyaccelerateEVchargerinstallationshere.AdditionalfundingwillalsolikelybeavailablefromVolkswagen,asaconsequenceoftheirmulti-billion-dollarsettlementovertheirdieselemissionsscandal.Itisexpectedthathalfofthe$2billionthatVWhascommittedtoinvestinEVinfrastructurewillbespentinCalifornia.57 53 http://scta.ca.gov/planning/shift/ 54 http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1107854_california-approves-pge-utility-plan-for-7500-electric-car-charging-stations 55 http://www.baaqmd.gov/grant-funding/businesses-and-fleets/charge 56 www.baaqmd.gov/charge 57 https://electrek.co/2017/02/08/vw-electric-vehicle-charging-infrastructure-dieselgate-settlement/
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TheCEChasfundedtheinstallationofadditionalfastchargersalongthenorthernportionoftheHighway101corridor,allthewaytotheOregonborder.ThisincludesfastchargelocationsinbothHealdsburgandCloverdale.Theinstallationofthesechargerswillbeginin2017,andtheywillbeavailablein2018.58TheNorthernSonomaCountyAirPollutionControlDistrict(NSCAPCD),aspartoftheir3-2-1GoGreenprogram,isofferingassistanceforbusinessesthatwishtoinstallpubliclyavailablechargersinruralregionsinthenorthandwestofSonomaCounty,aswellasalongthecoast.59AsofJuly2017,fourapplicationshavebeenapprovedforpublicchargerinstallationthroughthisprogram.60B.LocalEVrebateandincentiveprogramsThefollowingareotherSonomaCountyprogramsandpoliciesthatwereinitiatedinthepasttwoyearstoaccelerateEVadoption.SonomaCleanPower(SCP)approvedanallocationof$3millionforavarietyofeffortsrelatedtoacceleratingEVadoption,bundledunderthename“DriveEvergreen.”FromOctober2016toJanuary2017,SCPofferedincentives,discountsandrebatesforEVpurchasesinSonomaCounty.Thisprogramhasbeencompletedandevaluated.61Intotal,206newEVswerepurchasedorleasedthroughtheprogram,including35thatwereobtainedbylow-incomecustomers.EstimatesindicatethattheoperationofthesevehiclesovertheirlifetimewillreduceGHGemissionsequivalentto7,726to13,640metrictonsofCO2,withanaveragereductionof1.8metrictonsper$100ofincentivefundingspent.SCPwillrolloutasecondphasefromAugusttoOctoberof2017thatwillincludeawidervarietyofmodelmakesaswellasusedEVs.Fundingof$1.5millionisavailableasincentivesforover500additionalvehicles.62SCPcustomersalsocanreceivefreeLevel2electriccarchargersthatconnecttotheInternetandenableSCPtotrackuseandeventhrottlebackchargingduringtimesofhighdemand.Over570chargershavebeendeployedthroughthisprogram,withover90percentofthosereceivingchargerssigningupforthestill-in-developmentdemandresponseprogram.InadditiontoprovidinganotherincentivetoEVadoption,thisportionoftheprogramwillallowSCPtoconductareal-worldfieldtestofdemandresponsemanagement.TheNorthernSonomaCountyAirPollutionControlDistrict(NSCAPCD)alsolauncheda3-2-1GoGreenprograminAugust2016toofferrebatesandincentives 58 https://www.mendovoice.com/2017/04/fast-charging-stations/ 59 http://sonomacounty.ca.gov/Go-Green 60 Rob Bamford, NSCAPCD, July 20, 2017 61 https://sonomacleanpower.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Drive-EverGreen-EV-Incentive-Pilot-Evaluation-Report.pdf 62 https://sonomacleanpower.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/2017.07.06-SCPA-BOD-Agenda-Pkt-reduced.pdf
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forthepurchaseofEVs(aswellastheinstallationofbothresidentialandcommercialchargers)withintheirjurisdiction.Over60vehiclerebateshavebeenapprovedthroughthisprogramasofJuly2017.63C.PublicvisibilityandEVpromotionSonomaCleanPowerhasmountedarangeofEVpromotionefforts,includingdistributionofbrochuresandpamphlets,informationontheirwebsite,andaseriesofsixride-and-driveeventsatlargeemployersheldinthefallof2016.TheNorthBayElectricAutoAssociation(NBEAA),achapterofthenationalElectricAutoAssociationcomprisedoflocalEVdriversandadvocates,holdsmonthlymeetingstokeepmembersabreastofthelatestprogramsandtechnologiesandtocoordinateadvocacyefforts.TheNBEAAalsohostsanannualride-and-driveeventduringNationalDriveElectricWeek.In2016theeventattractedover500participants.Plansareunderwayforthe2017event,whichwilltakeplaceSeptember9forthefirsttimeinCourthouseSquareinSantaRosa.64SonomaCleanPower,theCenterforClimateProtection,theNBEAA,NSCAPCD,andtheCountyofSonomahavecollaboratedregularlytopromoteEVsinSonomaCounty.
VII.DiscussionandfindingsManyforward-thinkingpeople,suchasbusinessmanRichardBranson,predictthatEVswillovertakecombustioncarsin10to15yearsasbatterypricesfall,vehiclerangesincrease,andtheclimateimperativedrivespoliciesfavoringelectricityovergasolineanddiesel.65Volvorecentlybecamethefirstmajorautomakertoannounceacompletephaseoutofgas-onlycars,announcingthatallmodelstheyintroduceafter2019willbeeitherhybridsorpureelectrics.66CanSonomaCountyandtherestoftheworldwaitforsuchforcestocausethetransformationneededintransportationtoreduceGHGemissionsandmeetthescientificimperative,orismoreneeded?ForSonomaCountytoachieveitsGHGemissionreductiongoalarapidaccelerationofEVadoptionisrequired.Thiswilltakesomethingmuchmorethana“business-as-usual”effort.Thecurrently-offeredprogramsatnational,state,andlocallevelsrepresentagoodfoundation,butareinsufficienttomeettheproblematthespeedandscalerequired.
63 Rob Bamford, NSCAPCD, July 20, 2017 64 https://driveelectricweek.org/event.php?eventid=963 65 http://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/08/motorsport/richard-branson-formula-e/ 66 https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/business/energy-environment/volvo-hybrid-electric-car.html
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SonomaCountyispresently15yearsbehindinachievingitsgoaltomeetthescientificimperativeforclimateinthetransportationsector.Moreover,SonomaCounty’sGHGemissionsareprojectedtoincrease,asmentionedabove.SonomaCountycontrolsonlyasmallnumberoffactorsthatinfluenceEVadoption,andthepresentlocalprogramsandpoliciesareprobablyinsufficienttoaccelerateEVadoptiontothelevelneeded.ThisconclusioniscorroboratedbytheNorthBayCleanEnergyForumintheirwhitepaper,“DataDrivenPathtoEconomicandEcologicalSustainability.”WhilesupportingCommunityChoiceEnergyeffortstoachievewiderEVadoption,theysoundacautionarynote.“InthecontextoftherapidlyevolvinganddynamicEVmarketplace,CommunityChoicepolicyassumptionsneedtoavoidproducingexpensiveprogramsthatapplypublicresourcestoareaswherescaledprivateinvestmentsareforthcoming.Therefore,theForumrecommendsthatCommunityChoiceagenciescarefullycoordinatewithprivatesectorefforts.ToensureabalancebetweenthegrowingnumberofEVsandtheirneedforpublicchargingstationsrequiresongoingdata-basedmonitoringofthetypeandvolumeoflocalEVs(i.e.,shortrangevs.longrange)andpublicchargingstationcapacity.TosupportmarketforcesdrivingtechnologicalinnovationrequiresinstitutingastrategytoincentivizeEVinvestmentbasedonasimpleformula:DollarvalueperGHGreductionpercapitavehiclemilestraveled(VMT).”67Tomaintainitsleadershipposition,SonomaCountymustaccelerateitstransitionfromfossil-fuelbasedtransportation,andpreparefortheworldbeyondcombustion.By2030,salesofnewcombustioncarsmustbedrawingtoanend.Todootherwisewillnotonlycedeourpositionasclimateleaders,butwillnegateallothereffortstocurbGHGs.ThehighestleverageactionthatSonomaCountycantakemaybetocallattentiontothegapinmeetingthescientificimperativeforclimateinthetransportationsector,andtoadvocateformorerapidchange.SonomaCounty’sstatusasalocalclimateleaderwilllendcredibilitytothissoundingofthealarm.WemustnotonlyaddmanymoreEVs,anddosomuchmorequickly,butwemustalsoreplaceandremovethecombustioncarsfromourroads.Infact,combustioncars,considerednormalforacenturynow,mustbecomeanicheproduct.Inthesamewaythatsmoking,oncecompletelyacceptableinthehomeandworkplace,isnowrightlystigmatized,wemustdevelopanewconsciousnesswherethecostsofcombustiontoindividualandcommunityhealth,andtotheplanet,arerightlyunderstood.Afterall,ifwedon’tsmokearoundourkidsanymore,whydowenotthinktwiceaboutstrappingthemintoahighlypollutingcombustionmachine?Thischangeinthinkingmustbeattherootofthetransformationtowardcleanertransportation. 67 http://cleanpowerexchange.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/NBCEForumWhitePaper_CCA_2017-0124_FINAL.pdf
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VIII.RecommendationsTherecommendedactionspresentedintheAugust2015whitepaperwere:1. Advocateforpoliciesandfunding,especiallyatthestatelevel,toaccelerateEV
use.2. ExpandEVcharging,especiallyatworkplaces,multi-unithousing,andalong
transportationcorridors.3. DevelopandimplementanEVawarenesscampaign.4. DevelopEVinfrastructurethroughincreasedcoordination.Ourfindingsindicatethattherecommendedactionsfrom2015arestillneeded.Inaddition,weofferthefollowingrecommendedactions:1. Developandimplementplanstoincreaseandconfirmthenumberofdrivers
switchingfromcombustionvehiclestoEVs;ensurethatnewEVsdonotsimplyreplaceexistingEVs.
2. DevelopanEVchargingstationvisibilitycampaign.3. WorkwithSonomaCleanPower,otherpublicagencies,andtheprivatesectorto
maximizedaytimechargingtoaddressloadmanagementissuesandmaximizetheuseofrenewablepower.
4. Developfinancing,insurance,andvehiclesharingmechanismsthatgivelow-incomedriversaccesstoEVs.
5. DevelopawarenessprogramsthathighlighttheaffordabilityandaccessibilityofEVsforpeopleatallincomelevels.
6. Advocateandplanforafuturethateliminatesthesaleofnewinternalcombustionenginecarsby2030atthelatest.
7. TrackandpublicizeprogresstowardthegoalsforEVadoption.
IX.ConclusionDespiteprogressmadeoverthepasttwoyears,muchworkremainstobedonetoensurethatSonomaCountyaddressesitstransportationemissions.WeestimatethattheCountywillneedbetween100,000and150,000EVsby2030toreachourgoals.Thismeansthatbytheendofthenextdecade,thesalesofnewcombustioncarsmusteffectivelyend.Ifpublicagencies,electedofficials,consumers,andthebusinesscommunityatlocal,state,andnationallevelsworktogether,wecanachieveourgoals.Wemustnotonlycontinuecurrentefforts,butwemustalsoincreasethemdramatically.
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AppendixA:CurrentmixofEVsinSonomaCountyThecurrentmixofEVtypesremainslargelythesameasitwasin2015,withtheNissanLeafandChevyVoltleadingthewayinthebattery-electricvehicle(BEV),andplug-inHybridVehicle(PHEV)categories,respectively.68OthermakesthathavesignificantlyincreasedlocalsalesincludeFord,Fiat,andHonda.VWjumpedsixspotsupthelist,andisnowtheeighthmostpopularEVinSonomaCounty.Otherbrands,however,havesoldveryfewmodels.NotableamongtheseisToyota,whichcurrentlyoffersnoBEVsatall,andhassoldveryfewPHEVs.
Table3:CumulativeSalesofEVsinSonomaCountybyMajorBrands
March30,2015April30,2017
NissanLeaf 543 956ChevyVolt 264 529PriusPlug-In 238 298FordEnergi 142 315TeslaModelSandX 135 295Fiat500e 79 220FordFocusEV 50 90BMWI3 27 81SmartFourTwo 25 33ToyotaRAV4EV 24 26ChevySpark 21 64KiaSol 17 47HondaFit 15 15VWe-Golf 6 100
TOTAL 1586 3069
68 Ibid
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AppendixB:ThechallengeofusedEVsTheretentionorlossofusedEVsisofincreasingimportanceasalargenumberoffirst-generationEVsreachtheendoftheirlease.ManyofthoseEVownersareleasingnewermodels,releasingtheircarsintotheusedcarmarket.ShouldthoseEVsleavethecounty,orbetakenoutofservicecompletely,thebenefitsofadditionalsalesofnewEVswillbediluted.However,anumberofbarriersexisttothewidespreadretentionofusedEVs.1. Rebatesandincentivesareavailablefornewvehicles,butnotforused
vehicles.Althoughtherearemanygoodreasonsforthis,thegapbetweenthepricesofnewandusedEVsissmallerthanitwouldbeotherwise,whichreducestheattractivenessofbuyingausedEV.
2. Thosewhoarelookingtoreplaceanolder,highlypollutingcarwithausedEV
mayhavetoincreasetheirinsurancecoverage.Thisisbecausemanyownersofoldercarsonlycarrybasicliabilitycoverage.IftheyinvestinanEV,beitneworused,theywillneedincreasedinsurance.Iftheyleaseorfinancetheircar,theywillneedtopurchasecomprehensivecollisioninsurance,whichcouldbeanexcessivelyburdensomecostforsome.Thisisnottrueformoreaffluentbuyers,whoareoftenreplacinganewer,fully-insuredcarwiththeirEV.
3. Manybuyersofusedcarsarelowerincomeandthereforerentratherthanown
homes.Thiscreatesatwo-layeredproblemwhentheyareconsideringanEV.Rentersarereluctanttomakeinvestmentsintheirhousing,includingpayingtoinstallcharginginfrastructure.Subsequently,rentersarelikelytobelimitedtoLevel1charging.Renterswhoresideinmulti-unithousingfaceafurtherhurdleinthattheirparkingisoftentoofarfromtheirapartmenttoevenhaveaLevel1chargingoption.Thischallengeofprovidingchargingopportunitiesforresidentsofmulti-unithousingisanationalissue.TheUSDepartmentofEnergyhasissuedguidelinesforMUDEVcharging,69butthereareasyetonlyafewscatteredinstancesofMUDcharginginSonomaCounty.Furthermore,evenwhenrentersareabletochargeattheircurrentdwelling,theymaybereluctanttoinvestinanEVduetouncertaintyaboutchargingavailabilityattheirfuturehome,shouldtheymove.ThecontinuedlackofworkplacechargingfurthercomplicatesthechargingsituationforSonomaCountydrivers.
AprogramtoretainusedEVsisneeded,ideallymakingthemavailabletolow-incomebuyerswhowouldotherwisebeexcludedfromthebenefitsofEVs.Thisprogramshouldnot,however,simplyofferthecarsasastand-aloneprogram.Thecar,thefinancing,theinsurance,andthechargingshouldbeofferedasabundledpackagetomaximizeadoption.Combiningtheprogramwithatrade-inofanoldpollutingvehiclethatthengetspermanentlyretiredwillmaximizetheclimateandairpollutionbenefitsoftheprogram.
69 http://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_charging_multi.html