Best laid plans: a case study of an evolving natural experimental study in physical activity and the environment

David Ogilvie1,2

Jenna Panter1,2

David Humphreys2

Andy Jones2,3

Roger Mackett4

Simon Griffin1,2

1 MRC Epidemiology Unit, Cambridge2 UKCRC Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR)

3 School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia4 Centre for Transport Studies, University of London

Joint CEDAR-ISAG scientific meeting, 24 January 2012

• Scientific uncertainty regarding effects

• Not feasible to do a true experiment

• Possible to obtain relevant data

• Potential for replication, scalability or generalisability

— MRC guidance (2011)

When should we do them?

• Scientific uncertainty regarding effects

• Not feasible to do a true experiment

• Possible to obtain relevant data

• Potential for replication, scalability or generalisability

When should we do them?

• Scientific uncertainty regarding effects

• Not feasible to do a true experiment

• Possible to obtain relevant data

• Potential for replication, scalability or generalisability

• Scientific uncertainty regarding effects

• Not feasible to do a true experiment

• Possible to obtain relevant data

• Potential for replication, scalability or generalisability

• Scientific uncertainty regarding effects

• Not feasible to do a true experiment

• Possible to obtain relevant data

• Potential for replication, scalability or generalisability

BUSWAY

MacDonald et al., Am J Prev Med (2010)

BUSWAY

• Scientific uncertainty regarding effects

• Not feasible to do a true experiment

• Possible to obtain relevant data

• Potential for replication, scalability or generalisability

“I hurt myself quite badly and now my wife won’t let me cycle in

town, she says it’s too dangerous”

[Cycling] is probably the most dangerous thing I do but well I read the statistics and it’s more dangerous not to cycle from the

health point of view!

Ogilvie et al. Commuting and health in Cambridge: a study of a ‘natural experiment’ in the provision of new transport infrastructure. BMC Public Health 2010

Panter et al. Correlates of time spent walking and cycling to and from work. IJBNPA 2011

Guell et al. Towards a differentiated understanding of travel behaviour: using social theory to explore everyday commuting. Submitted to Soc Sci Med

Papers in progress

Goodman et al. Healthy travel in a car-oriented environment: the socio-economic structure of car commuting in Cambridge. Submitted to Soc Sci Med

Yang et al. Associations between active commuting and physical activity in working adults. Submitted to Prev Med

Guell et al. Walking and cycling to work despite reporting an unsupportive environment: a mixed-method exploration of potential mechanisms. Submitted to IJBNPA

Papers in progress

Guell and Ogilvie. Picturing ‘healthy’ commuting: photo voice and seeking well-being in everyday travel. Final draft for Qual Health Res

Panter et al. Correlates of reported and recorded time spent in physical activity. Final draft for Am J Prev Med

Jones and Ogilvie. What motivates active commuting? Exploring changes in travel behaviour following relocation. Final draft for IJBNPA

Papers in progress

Panter et al. Why do people combine walking or cycling with other modes of transport? Measuring and understanding active travel on the journey to work

Dalton et al. The influence of location and accessibility on modal choice for travel to work

Carse et al. Can the bicycle compete with the car? The case of Cambridge

Yang et al. Feasibility of rapid but precise baseline assessment of physical activity in a commuting population

Papers in progress

Tully et al. Using Walk Score to predict walking in employed UK adults

Tully et al. Comparison of the Recent Physical Activity Questionnaire with objectively measured physical activity to classify physical activity level

Humphreys et al. The association between active commuting and physical and mental wellbeing

Carse et al. Children’s active travel in Cambridge: examining the relationship between parents’ and children’s travel behaviour

Papers in progress

“I hurt myself quite badly and now my wife won’t let me cycle in

town, she says it’s too dangerous”

[Cycling] is probably the most dangerous thing I do but well I read the statistics and it’s more dangerous not to cycle from the

health point of view!

Cornelia Guell et al. Walking and cycling to work despite reporting an unsupportive environment: a mixed-method exploration of potential mechanisms

Cornelia Guell et al. Walking and cycling to work despite reporting an unsupportive environment: a mixed-method exploration of potential mechanisms

Anna Goodman et al. Healthy travel in a car-oriented environment: the socio-economic structure

of car commuting in Cambridge

Jenna Panter et al. Why do people combine walking or cycling with other modes of transport? Measuring and understanding active travel on the journey to work

Cornelia Guell et al. Walking and cycling to work despite reporting an unsupportive environment: a mixed-method exploration of potential mechanisms

Anna Goodman et al. Healthy travel in a car-oriented environment: the socio-economic structure

of car commuting in Cambridge

Jenna Panter et al. Why do people combine walking or cycling with other modes of transport? Measuring and understanding active travel on the journey to work

Caroline Jones and David Ogilvie. What motivates active commuting? Exploring changes in

travel behaviour following relocation

Emily HallAssistant study coordinator

Fiona WhittleStudy coordinator

Wing WongData manager

Credits

Wider research teamSimon CohnNatalia JonesAnna GoodmanLin YangDavid HumphreysMark TullyJames Smith

InvestigatorsDavid OgilvieSimon GriffinAndy JonesRoger Mackett

Core research teamJenna Panter Cornelia Guell Caroline JonesAlice DaltonAndrew Carse

Study operationsCheryl ChapmanWing WongRupesh GhelaniAndrew DymondFiona WhittleEmily Hall

Acknowledgments

This study was initially funded under the auspices of the Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), a UKCRC Public Health Research Centre of Excellence. Funding from the British Heart Foundation, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research and the Wellcome Trust, under the auspices of the UK Clinical Research Collaboration, is gratefully acknowledged. The study is now funded by the National Institute for Health Research Public Health Research programme (project number 09/3001/06). The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the NIHR PHR programme, the NHS or the Department of Health.