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Competing demands of resolution, complexity, uncertainty, and long integrations in Climate System
Modelling:
Resolution
Complexity
Uncertainty
Long simulations
Courtesy: J. Shukla, IGES/COLA
Why a move to higher resolution is necessary
I: Complexity in the atmosphere
Water vapour and window channel radiances from Meteosat-7
Same fields from HadAM3 at climate resolution
Courtesy: J. Shukla, IGES/COLA
Why a move to higher resolution is necessary II: Complexity in the ocean
SSTs in the Gulf stream from infrared measurements aboard MODIS
10 …. and as simulated by OCCAM
1/40
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Courtesy: J. Shukla, IGES/COLA
Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (0C) from UK Ocean Model
1/12o
1/4o
1o
Courtesy: J. Shukla, IGES/COLA
Weather Prediction Model of ~2020
Coupled Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Model
~1 km x ~1 km
100 levels
Unstructured, adaptive grids
Landscape-resolving
(~100 m)
~1 km x ~1 km
50 levels
Unstructured, adaptive grids
Assumption: Computing power enhancement by a factor of 103-104
Courtesy: J. Shukla, IGES/COLA
MCT/INPE-REDE CLIMA-FAPESP Supercomputer for Climate Change Research
Sustained
Throughput
15 Tflops
Main Memory 20 TBytes
Primary Storage 3 PBytes
Aquisition
Installation
Late 2010
Total budget US$ 25 M
and will make it possible to run global climate model simulations at high
spatial resolutions to grid sizes of 20 km !
BESM Supercomputer Performance
BESM-OA2.3 CMIP5 would require the whole
30,000 processors of Cray EX6 during two
years to be completed
. AGCM2009SSIB
. MOM4p0
River Discharge
. AGCM2009SSIB
. MOM4p1
Topaz; SIS,
. AGCM2012IBIS
. MOM4p1
Topaz, SIS
. AGCM2012INLAND
. MOM4p1
Topaz, SIS
. AGCM2013INLAND,Chem
. MOM5
Topaz, SIS
AGCM2013Chem
. INLAND_THMB
. MOM5
Topaz, SIS
2010 2012 2013 2014 BESM-OA1.0 BESM-OA2.3
BESM-Ibis2.5
BESM-Inland2.7 BESM-Mozart2.9 BESM 3.0
T062L28 atmos 1.0 L50 ocean
BESM Version Releases Plan
T126L64 atmos ¼ L64 oceans
The greatest Challenge:‘Peopleware’ Model Component Present* In 5 years* In 10 years*
Atmosphere 15 + 10 30 + 15 45 + 30
Land 20 + 25 30 + 50 50 + 70
Chemistry 2 + 2 10 + 20 25 + 30
Ocean 8 + 5 20 + 40 30 + 80
TOTAL 45 + 42 90 + 125 150 + 210
* Researchers + Students/Collaborators
• Long term research programs: FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change; Rede CLIMA; INCT for Climate Change • 10 Doctoral programs supporting capacity building in Earth System Modeling • Annual “International Summer Schools” will engage some 40 doctoral students/post-docs from S. America, S. Africa and India fellows per year.
Challenges Ahead
• Building a trully interactive science-policy making-private sectors network that is capable to understand and use the products of the BESM for decision making.
• Bringing the whole of the scientific community, professors & students, in Brazil and “Southern Hemisphere” countries to cooperate for that end.