BESM, looking into the future - ? BESM, looking into the future Chair: Paulo Nobre FAPESP, 19 February

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  • BESM, looking into the future

    Chair: Paulo Nobre FAPESP, 19 February 2013

  • MOZART driven by BESM offline mode

    OZONE

    TOLUENE

    T + 1 DAY T + 1 MONTH T=20060101, 00z

  • 1/120

    Competing demands of resolution, complexity, uncertainty, and long integrations in Climate System

    Modelling:

    Resolution

    Complexity

    Uncertainty

    Long simulations

    Courtesy: J. Shukla, IGES/COLA

  • Why a move to higher resolution is necessary

    I: Complexity in the atmosphere

    Water vapour and window channel radiances from Meteosat-7

    Same fields from HadAM3 at climate resolution

    Courtesy: J. Shukla, IGES/COLA

  • Why a move to higher resolution is necessary II: Complexity in the ocean

    SSTs in the Gulf stream from infrared measurements aboard MODIS

    10 . and as simulated by OCCAM

    1/40 1/120

    Courtesy: J. Shukla, IGES/COLA

  • Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (0C) from UK Ocean Model

    1/12o

    1/4o

    1o

    Courtesy: J. Shukla, IGES/COLA

  • BESM Ocean Model SST 1/10 global grid

  • HAND Model-Landscape Descriptor, A. D. Nobre, 2010

  • Weather Prediction Model of ~2020

    Coupled Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Model

    ~1 km x ~1 km

    100 levels

    Unstructured, adaptive grids

    Landscape-resolving

    (~100 m)

    ~1 km x ~1 km

    50 levels

    Unstructured, adaptive grids

    Assumption: Computing power enhancement by a factor of 103-104

    Courtesy: J. Shukla, IGES/COLA

  • MCT/INPE-REDE CLIMA-FAPESP Supercomputer for Climate Change Research

    Sustained

    Throughput

    15 Tflops

    Main Memory 20 TBytes

    Primary Storage 3 PBytes

    Aquisition

    Installation

    Late 2010

    Total budget US$ 25 M

    and will make it possible to run global climate model simulations at high

    spatial resolutions to grid sizes of 20 km !

  • BESM Supercomputer Performance

    BESM-OA2.3 CMIP5 would require the whole

    30,000 processors of Cray EX6 during two

    years to be completed

  • . AGCM2009SSIB

    . MOM4p0 River Discharge

    . AGCM2009SSIB

    . MOM4p1 Topaz; SIS,

    . AGCM2012IBIS

    . MOM4p1 Topaz, SIS

    . AGCM2012INLAND

    . MOM4p1 Topaz, SIS

    . AGCM2013INLAND,Chem

    . MOM5 Topaz, SIS

    AGCM2013Chem . INLAND_THMB . MOM5 Topaz, SIS

    2010 2012 2013 2014 BESM-OA1.0 BESM-OA2.3

    BESM-Ibis2.5

    BESM-Inland2.7 BESM-Mozart2.9 BESM 3.0

    T062L28 atmos 1.0 L50 ocean

    BESM Version Releases Plan

    T126L64 atmos L64 oceans

  • The greatest Challenge:Peopleware Model Component Present* In 5 years* In 10 years*

    Atmosphere 15 + 10 30 + 15 45 + 30

    Land 20 + 25 30 + 50 50 + 70

    Chemistry 2 + 2 10 + 20 25 + 30

    Ocean 8 + 5 20 + 40 30 + 80

    TOTAL 45 + 42 90 + 125 150 + 210

    * Researchers + Students/Collaborators

    Long term research programs: FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change; Rede CLIMA; INCT for Climate Change 10 Doctoral programs supporting capacity building in Earth System Modeling Annual International Summer Schools will engage some 40 doctoral students/post-docs from S. America, S. Africa and India fellows per year.

  • Challenges Ahead

    Building a trully interactive science-policy making-private sectors network that is capable to understand and use the products of the BESM for decision making.

    Bringing the whole of the scientific community, professors & students, in Brazil and Southern Hemisphere countries to cooperate for that end.