Battening Down the Hatches: Major Storms & Community Resilience

Lisa Doner - Plymouth State University, NHLorraine Motola - Metropolitan College of New York

Patricia Stapleton - Worcester Polytechnic Institute, MA

Infrared satellite image of the Superstorm at 1800 UTC, March 13, 1993http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ilm/archive/Superstorm93/

2005 – Katrina $81 billion in property damage

2012 – Sandy - $50 billion in property damage

986 deaths (Katrina): 40% drowned

25% injury and trauma 11% heart conditions

Median age of all: 74 yrs (51% black)

1. Images: Noaa2. Sandy: Hurricane Sandy FEMA After-Action Report (July 1, 2013)3. Katrina: www.datacenterresearch.org/data-resources/katrina/facts-for-impact (Aug 28, 2014) 4. Katrina: Brunkard et al., 2008. Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness

117 deaths (Sandy)34% drowned (90% within evac zone)16% injury and trauma8.5% poisoningMedian age of all: 65 (54% caucasian)

Storm of the Century Jan 5-9, 1998

Storm of the Century Jan 5-9, 1998

flooding from Mississippi valley eastward (16” rain Jackson Cty, NC) 700 home destroyedsevere ice storm in northeast (>3” freezing rain)

Fatalities: 12 drowned, 56 ice storm3.5 million people without power in US and Canada3 million feet of power lines destroyed.

Overall Costs: >$300 million U.S ; >>$2 billion CanadaNote: Feb 1994 ice storm in SE US caused > $3 billion in damages

Source: National Climate Data Center, Technical Report 98-2

Winter weather-related motor vehicle accidents

What most people believe to be the greatest

weather–related risks

Lightning Tornado Flood Hurricane Heat Cold Rip Currents

WindWinterAviation (winter)

Average number of fatalities per year from meteorological hazards 1996-2011

Black, A. and Mote, T. (2015). Characteristics of Winter Precipitation Related Transportation Fatalities in the United States. Weather, Climate & Society

1. Energy and Climate Change: Ensure reliable energy supplies in an increasingly carbon-constrained world

2. Water: Provide sufficient supplies of water

3. Oceans, Atmosphere, and Space: Sustain ocean, atmosphere, and space resources

4. Waste Treatment and Disposal: Manage waste to maintain a healthy environment

5. Natural Hazards: Mitigate risk and build resilience from natural and human-made hazards

6. Infrastructure Modernization: Improve and build needed infrastructure that couples with and uses Earth resources while integrating new technologies

7. Raw Materials: Ensure reliable supplies of raw materials

8. Geoscience Workforce and Education: Inform the public and train the geosciences workforce to understand Earth processes and address these critical needs

American Geosciences Institute (AGI) report on US Policy Needs (2008):

President’s National Science & Technology Council (NSTC) Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction, scientists and engineers

Grand Challenges for disaster reduction (2005):

1. Provide hazard and disaster information where and when needed

2. Understand the natural processes that produce hazards

3. Develop hazard mitigation strategies and technologies

4. Recognize and reduce vulnerability of interdependent critical infrastructure

5. Assess disaster resilience using standard methods

6. Promote risk-wise behavior

Key characteristics of disaster-resilient communities (AGI, 2008):

• Relevant hazards are recognized and understood.

• Communities at risk know when a hazard event is imminent.

• Individuals at risk are safe from hazards at home and at work.

• Communities experience minimum disruption to life and economy after a hazard event has passed.

Requires a risk-educated populace

How to reach that ideal state?

the hard way – batter them with disasters until they learn

kinder & gentler – training on hazards and risk

Teaching about Risk and Resilience:

Sea Level Rise, Flooding, and Earthquakes InTeGrate Workshop - Boca Raton, FL, May 14-16, 2014

1. Communication strategies after a disaster

2. Natural Hazards

3. What Contributes to the Building of Resilient Communities?

4. Integration of knowledge, risk perception and awareness of social vulnerability

Battening Down the Hatches: Major Storms & Community Resilience3 week trans-disciplinary course, university or professional level

(status: approaching Checkpoint 3)

Aim - a populace better informed about potential risks, mitigation and response strategies to major storms, and to

reduce individual and community demand for emergency measures.

Jan 5, 1998 ice storm

HowItWorks (Nov 19, 2012) R. Jones Wikipedia (North_American_Ice_Storm_of_1998)

Module Components: data & products from Emergency Planners, NOAA, NASA and the USGS

related to specific events of national importance

Physical data sets:• oceanographic data (storm surge)• hydrographic (river stages, flows)• topography, coastal and inland floodplain maps and flood zones• meteorological records (precipitation/snow totals, wind & temperature)

Historical Examples and Meteorological Analyses of Events: Case Studies• Hurricane Katrina• Hurricane Sandy• 1993 Blizzard • 2014-2015 Winter Storms

Social data sets:• hazard mitigation plans• FEMA mitigation ideas (2013)• National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP) Risk Management Framework

We use extreme or rare events to train students about complex risks of natural hazards and socio-economic systems.

In Module activities, students:• explore the nature and impacts of extreme storm events of large

regional scope (>25% of US area affected)• discover how cumulative impacts can cripple normal activities even

in locales used to high magnitude events• link resilience to preparedness, regionally and locally

Bill Trotter, Bangor Daily News

BANGOR, Maine — Just when you thought the piles couldn’t get any higher, it happened. Again....

Feb 22 Tweet

Bangor Daily News : Weekend snow secures winter records for Maine, New England

Module Includes Complex Scenarios:

• catastrophic snowmelt flooding after 1993 Superstorm

• social breakdown of support during Katrina

• prolonged lack of public transportation in Boston this winter and in NYC after Sandy

More detail in next presentationPatricia Stapleton:

Stakeholder Input for Storm Risk Assessment