Aviation Market in Transition Director Marketing Vladimir Kamynin

Aviation Market in Transition

Director Marketing

Vladimir Kamynin

INVESTIGATED FACTORS

The main forecast factors:

• GDP• Jet fuel price• The factor of

limitedness of labour resources

Investigated factors for the market of the

Russian Federation:

• GDP• Jet fuel price• Real income of

population• Investments into main

production.

Factors rendering essential/critical influence:

• Global incidents and threats (atypical pneumonia (SARS)), bird flue (H5N1), pork flue (A/H1N1),earthquakes, hurricanes, tsunami)

• Aviation accidents (catastrophes and acts of terrorism)

The Russian Federation

Dynamics of the basic macroeconomic indicators of the Russian Federation

Source: ROSSTAT Source: MER

Crisis-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Real GDP

Real income of population

Investments into fixed capital

Dependence of passenger traffic growth rates in the Russian Federation from GDP*


* - here and further the forecast of a passenger traffic volume in 2009 by marketing group of the airport Domodedovo.

• High sensitivity of a passenger traffic volume to GDP chages in the Russian Federation

• The average change of GDP on the Russian market is 2,0

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Passenger traffic in the Russian Federation

GDP

Dependence of passenger traffic growth rates in the Russian Federation from GDP (enlarged scale)


II период период сниженияснижения

II период снижения

• II decrease period decrease period ::

• Decrease in growth rates GDP

• Sharp rise in fuel prices - on the average by 60 % in the Russian Federation

• IIII decrease period decrease period ::

• Снижение темпов роста ВВП

• Резкое удорожание топлива – в среднем на 50% по РФ

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009


GDP

Dependence of passenger traffic growth rates on the fuel price


• There is an inverse dependence of market growth rate on fuel price changes

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009


Fuel price

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%Пассажиропоток РФ

Dependence of growth rates of passenger traffic volume of Moscow Aviation Note on GDP

Moscow Aviation Note

• Market of Moscow Aviation Node is more stable to GDP than the Russian Federation market.

• Market of Moscow Aviation Node in long-run period increases of GDP up to 1,8 coefficient which conforms to ICAO methods (competitive market)

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

MOW passenger flowGDP

Russian passenger traffic

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Пассажиропоток МВЛ МАУ

Dependence of growth rates of passenger traffic volume of Moscow Aviation Note in internal air lines and international air

lines market segments on GDP.


• Regular international market of Moscow Aviation Note is more dynamically develops in the period of development and is more stable to the crisis than the market of Russian Federation.

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Passenger traffic on internal air lines of Moscow Aviation Note

GDP

MOW International passenger traffic

Dynamics of passenger traffic volume of the Moscow Aviation Note in the various market segments, I half-year of 2009, %

• During the period of crisis the most stable market segment is passenger transfer on Far Abroad and CIS (international air-line’s regular market)


-2%

-16%

-2%

-18%

-20%

-18%

-16%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

Far Abroad (other) Internal Air lines CIS Travel market

Distribution of passenger traffic of Moscow Aviation Note on regular international air lines between foreign and Russian air companies.


Distribution of passenger traffic of regular flight on international air lines, %D

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%J

an

-07

Fe

b-0

7

Ma

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

7

Ma

y-0

7

Ju

n-0

7

Ju

l-0

7

Au

g-0

7

Sep

-07

Oct

-07

No

v-0

7

Dec

-07

Ja

n-0

8

Fe

b-0

8

Ma

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

8

Ma

y-0

8

Ju

n-0

8

Ju

l-0

8

Au

g-0

8

Sep

-08

Oct

-08

No

v-0

8

Dec

-08

Ja

n-0

9

Fe

b-0

9

Ma

r-0

9

Ap

r-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

International air companies

Russian air companies

43% 49

%

Dependence of growth rates of passenger traffic volume of Moscow Aviation Note in travel flights on GDP


• During the economic growth the travel market of Moscow Aviation Note is stably increasing with the average coefficient 1,8 of GDP. At the same time during the crisis it decreases faster than other market segments, decrease of rates are bigger than the decrease of GDP.

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Travel stream of Moscow Aviation Note GDP

Dependence of growth rates of passenger traffic volume of Moscow Aviation Note on GDP during the crisis period.


Инерционный период

Восстановительныйпериод

Шоковый период

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09

Passenger traffic of Moscow Aviation Note GDP

Delayed-action period

Shock period

Recovery period

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%Пассажиропоток МАУ

Dependence of growth rates of passenger traffic volume between regions in the Russian Federation on GDP


• Market of passenger transfer between regions in the Russian Federation is unstable in comparison with Moscow Aviation Note.

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Passenger transfer between regions in the Russian Federation without Moscow Aviation Note.

GDP

MOW passenger flow

Change of growth rates of real earnings of the population makes the greatest impact on growth rates of passenger traffic volume

on a tourist market segment.


-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Travel stream of Moscow Aviation Note

Real earnings of the population

Dependence of growth rates of passenger traffic volume of Moscow Aviation Note on real earnings of population in the crisis

period

• Direct influence of growth rates of incomes of the population on a passenger traffic volume of Moscow Aviation Note


-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09

Passenger traffic of Moscow Aviation Note

Real earnings of the population

Dependence of growth rates of passenger traffic volume of the Russian Federation on investments into fixed capital


-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Passenger traffic of the Russian Federation

Investments into fixed capital

Growth rates of passenger traffic volume for the direction to Krasnodar – Moscow Aviation Note

The choice of International Olympic Committee Sochi as a capital of the winter Olympic Games.

Krasnodar – business capital of land.


-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

ян

в.0

6

мар

.06

май

.06

ию

л.0

6

сен

.06

но

я.0

6

ян

в.0

7

мар

.07

май

.07

ию

л.0

7

сен

.07

но

я.0

7

ян

в.0

8

мар

.08

май

.08

ию

л.0

8

сен

.08

но

я.0

8

ян

в.0

9

мар

.09

май

.09

Краснодар МАУKrasnodar MOW

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

ВВП

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Реальные доходы населения

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Инвестиции в основной капитал


Dynamics of the basic macroeconomic indicators and passenger traffic of the Russian Federation

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Passenger traffic of the Russian Federation

Household income

Fixed capital investment

GDP

Thank you!

Documents

Aviation Market in Transition Director Marketing Vladimir Kamynin