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Australian International Education Conference

The Demography of International Education: Impacts on Australia

Bernard Salt

14 October 2009



These slides are not for commercial use or redistribution. The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. No oneshould act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. KPMG have indicated within this presentation the sources of the information provided.KPMG has not sought to independently verify those sources unless otherwise noted within the presentation. No reliance should be placed on additional oral remarks provided during the presentation, unless theseare confirmed in writing by KPMG. KPMG is under no obligation in any circumstance to update this presentation, in either oral or written form, for events occurring after the presentation has been issued in finalform. The findings in this presentation have been formed on the above basis. Forecasts are based on a number of assumptions and estimates and are subject to contingencies and uncertainties. Forecasts shouldnot be regarded as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of KPMG or any other person that such forecasts will be met. Forecasts constitute judgment and are subject to change without notice, as arestatements about market trends, which are based on current market conditions. Neither KPMG nor any member or employee of KPMG undertakes responsibility arising in any way from reliance placed by a thirdparty on this presentation. Any reliance placed is that party’s sole responsibility. The presentation (and the accompanying slide pack) is provided solely for the benefit of the conference attendees and is not to becopied, quoted or referred to in whole or in part without KPMG’s prior written consent. KPMG accepts no responsibility to anyone other than the conference attendees for the information contained in thispresentation.

Australian International Education Conference 2009 www.aiec.idp.com

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Australia is growing faster than at any time in

our history … students are a driver of growth

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; KPMG

• Components of annual population change in Australia between 1982

and 2009

Decline Recovery

1989 2005 20091982

BoomBoom

1994

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Natural increase Net migration Net growth

540,000

44,000 extra

students



Australians are on the move … to the coast

Losers

Winners

Areas of high

population growth

(>2% pa) and loss

(<1% pa) between

1986 and 2008


Townsville

Gladstone

Hervey BaySunshine Coast

Gold Coast

Coffs Harbour

Port Macquarie

Port Stephens

Narooma

Surf CoastSorell

Victor Harbor

Augusta-

Margaret

River

Busselton

Broome

Palmerston

Mackay

Cairns-Port Douglas

Bundaberg

Byron Bay

Denmark


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Australia is shifting its ethnic base from Anglo

and Mediterranean to Asian influences

Growing

Extra 2006

1. China 64,324 206,589

2. India 52,034 147,105

3. New Zealand 37,616 389,466

4. South Africa 25,180 104,131

5. Philippines 17,012 120,541

• Most growth and loss by place of birth in Australia, 2001-2006Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; KPMG

Some students

converting to

residents

Contracting

Loss 2006

1. Italy -18,867 199,123

2. Greece -6,152 109,989

3. Poland -5,616 52,256

4. Netherlands -3,571 78,923

5. Malta -3,143 43,701

Old Italians

and Greeks

dying off



Education will crystallise around „surge points‟

in the Australian demographic profile

Source: ABS Historical Population Statistics, 2006, Department of Health and Ageing Population Projections, 2007; KPMG

• Net change in Australian population by 5-year age group over 10 years

to 2007 and 10 years to 2017

Mature adults

• Support for students

• Re-training

• Upskilling

• KIPPERS

Absolute Growth 1997-07 Absolute Growth 2007-17-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Young adults

• Overseas workers

• Overseas students

• Household formation

• „Little Emperor‟ syndrome

Retirees

• U3A

• Return to Uni

• Education for interest

Kids

• Pre-school

• Early primary


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Most growth in VET sector … total

commencements expanding by 22,000 per year

2002 2009 Growth

Higher Education 51,700 85,100 33,400

VET 21,600 97,000 75,400

ELICOS 25,400 64,400 39,000

Schools 21,600 26,500 5,500

Other 17,400 22,400 5,000

Total 126,200 280,700 154,500

Source: AIE;DEEWR; KPMG

• Most growth in VET, up 75,400

• ELICOS also a major growth area, up 39,000

• Uni students up 33,400

• 2009 commencements of 281,000, up 44,000 over previous 12 months



China and India have been the fastest growing

markets for international students

Growth Commencements

2002-2009 2009

1. India 48,000 52,000

2. China 44,000 68,000

3. Nepal 10,000 10,000

4. South Korea 10,000 11,000

5. Saudi Arabia 6,000 6,000

6. Brazil 6,000 8,000

7. Thailand 4,000 11,000

8. Colombia 3,000 5,000

9. Pakistan 3,000 3,000

10. Sri Lanka 2,000 3,000

Source: AIE;DEEWR; KPMG


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Inner Sydney and Melbourne have attracted

around 65,000 new residents over 10 years

• Population June 2008 was 259,000

up 68,000 over 10 years and 6,000

over 12 months

Melbourne


• Population June 2008 was 338,000

up 61,000 over 10 years and 3,000

over 12 months

Sydney



The densest part of Melbourne is an

international student stronghold

9,500 per sq km



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0 9010 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Source: United Nations Statistics Division; KPMG

Changes to life expectancy has created new

market segments and lifestyle behaviours

Child Adolescence Lifestyle OldRetired

200982

Adult

Child Teen OldAdult1969 71

Child Adult Old

1929 63

• Change in life expectancy over 80 years in Australia



1950 20502009


Boomer Gen X Gen Y

200,000

There is a „demographic fault line‟ running

through the Australian workforce

• Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 100 years in

Australia based on 2004 and 2008 outlook

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Historical 2004 forecast 2008 forecast


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Source Statistics Bureau of Japan; KPMG

Japan‟s demographic fault line means reduced

consumer spending in traditional markets

1.5 million

1994 contraction

• Net change in working age population (15-64) over 100 years in

Japan based on 2007 outlook

-1,500,000

-1,000,000

-500,000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Historical Forecast

1950 20502009

Boomer Gen X Gen Y



Consumer demand in China will be supported

by further rural to urban migration


• Net change in working age population (15-64) over 100 years in

China based on 2007 outlook

15 million

2016 contraction

-10,000,000

-5,000,000

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Historical Forecast

1950 20502009

Boomer Gen X Gen Y


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The middle-class-isation of India will continue

… good opportunities for long-term growth

14 million

• Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 100 years in India

based on 2007 outlook

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Historical Forecast


1950 20502009

Boomer Gen X Gen Y



2006 Change 2001-2006

No. %

General Clerk 205,500 35,800 21%

Commercial Cleaner 112,600 32,300 40%

Aged or Disabled Person Carer 77,300 25,600 49%

Registered Nurse 163,100 20,900 15%

Heavy Truck Driver 124,500 19,800 19%

Project & Program Administrator 110,400 19,500 21%

Storeperson 139,700 19,300 16%

Child Care Worker 63,300 18,200 40%

Food & Drink Sales Assistant 182,100 17,100 10%

Personal/Household Sales Assistant 150,300 17,000 13%

Australia 9,104,200 805,500 10%


• Top ten occupations by absolute job growth over 5 years to 2006 in

Australia … total 1,300 occupations

Driving, storing, cleaning, caring and selling

are jobs on the rise … each requiring skills


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2006 Change 2001-2006

No. %

Secretary 94,400 -39,800 -30%

Fruit, Vegetable or Nut Farm Hand 20,200 -6,400 -24%

Dairy Farmer 16,100 -5,400 -25%

Sales and Marketing Manager 89,000 -5,300 -6%

General Farm Hand 24,100 -5,200 -18%

Sewing Machinist 13,100 -5,100 -28%

Electronic Engineering Technician 5,300 -4,500 -46%

Packager and Container Filler 6,400 -4,000 -38%

Domestic Cleaner 16,200 -3,900 -19%

Transport Company Manager 11,600 -3,600 -24%

Australia 9,104,200 805,500 10%


Technology and policy shifts diminish other

jobs which prompts reskilling

• Top ten occupations by absolute job loss over 5 years to 2006 in Australia



Why are heavy truck drivers leaving the

industry between the ages of 25 and 34?

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65 and over

2001 2006

• Age profile of heavy truck drivers between 2001 and 2006

Losing staff

Gaining staff

34% of heavy

truck drivers

are aged 50+

2001: 104,730

2006: 124,518

Diff: 19,788 or 19%



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It‟s easier to hold onto old nurses than it is to

recruit and retain young nurses

2001 2006

• Age profile of registered nurses between 2001 and 2006

2001: 142,202

2006: 163,083

Diff: 20,881 or 15%


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65 and over

31% of registered

nurses are aged

50+



„Religious minister‟ shrinkage …

2001 2006


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65 and over

2001: 14,238

2006: 14,778

Diff: 540 or 4%

• Age profile of ministers of religion between 2001 and 2006

Teenage

Ministers of

Religion from

the Church of

Like Whatever

48% of ministers

of religion are

aged 50+

might prompt aspate of international vicar-nicking


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Generation Y set to transition into household

formation next decade

• Baby boomers - “There goes my early retirement”

- Boomers hadn’t saved enough before the crash

- No time to recover from GFC

- Returning to or engaging with the workplace

• Generation X - Wrong time to be 33-43

- Mortgage, kids & single income

- Unlucky generation … but sick of Gen Ys

- Moving into leadership roles

• Generation Y - Never experienced recession

- First time someone has said “no”

- Learn the lesson of the downturn

- See value in assets and commitment

• Generation Z - Prudent, connected, technophile



The Great Australasian Man Drought … Stage

3A restrictions now apply

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74

Australia New Zealand

35

Man Drought

Boy Town

Widow

World

27

35

58 65

Man Mountain

• Percentage difference in the number of men and women in Australia

and New Zealand by individual year in 2006

Mo

re m

en

Mo

re w

om

en

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; Statistics New Zealand; KPMG


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Contact

Bernard Salt

KPMG Australia

+61 3 9288 5047

[email protected]

www.bernardsalt.com.au

twitter.com/bernardsalt

linkedin.com/in/bernardsalt



Education services required on the urban

fringe and in seachange communities

1. Brisbane 17,368

2. Gold Coast 13,210

3. Moreton Bay 11,831

4. Wyndham 8,874

5. Sunshine Coast 8,734

6. Wanneroo 8,552

7. Casey 8,014

8. Ipswich 6,104

9. Melton 6,016

10. Cairns 5,985

Total Australia 354,507

• Top 10 growth areas in Australia over 12 months to June 2008

The new

“Western Front”



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„Fear‟ drives community behaviour and values

during a downturn

Then 1997 - 2008

• Era of high consumerism … and

of „corporate high-flyers‟

• „Live for the moment‟ … pay in the

future

• Plasma TVs, McMansions, Manolo

Blahnik shoes

• Easy credit … rising house prices

• Celebration of the individual …

confidence in the future and in

ourselves

Recession

Consumers driven by

“Aspirationalism”

• Rise of the moral consumer … the

new Wowserism

• Anti-drinking, smoking, speeding,

gambling, junk-food (obesity) …

concern about corporate excess

• Rise of Green, ethical & traditional

values: celebrities & LG

• Fear drives a retreat to the security

of the herd, the tribe, the family,

familiar brands?

Now 2009+

Consumers driven by a

“New Morality”


Documents

Australian International Education Conference - AIECaiec.idp.com/uploads/pdf/2009_Salt_Wed_1350_Aud B.pdf · Australian International Education Conference 2009 . 10/21/2009 9 © 2009